From the guys who brought you The Greatest Short Burn of the Century..

Oh man, oh man, oh man.
Not again.
-Drizzy

Preface:
Please believe me when I say I really wanted to take this month off and enjoy the snow in Tahoe. But as I was driving, something caught my eye...
Make no mistake. This stock is not going to be nearly as volatile or profitable as GME. In fact, this might be so boring that most of you will ignore me yet again. And that’s exactly why I like it. I’ll do my best to make this engaging, but the fact is, this is going to be a slow grind. Both this DD and the stock.
Also, as a bonus, Reddit is currently public enemy #1 in the eyes of the media. Why don’t we do a quick heel-turn and join their side? Are they gonna hate us for buying boring value stocks? They won’t know what hit them. That will be a fun show to watch.
Anyway… let’s take a look under the hood. As always, not financial advice. Just education. NOTHING IS A RECOMMENDATION. We are just sharing knowledge here. Ok SEC?
Intro:
Ford (NYSE: $F -- NOT NASDAQ:$FORD), is another depressed deep value multiple expansion arbitrage play. No short squeeze this time. The GME asymmetry may not be seen again for 10 years.
It might seem boring and unsexy on the surface, but Ford is a fantastic company in the midst of one of the best turnarounds in American history. And with a little help from our friend Mr. Options (or as Buffett called, Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction) we can turn a boring old Ford into a lightning fast Ferrari using the quadruple income option wheel strategy. Don’t try this at home. If you don’t know what CSPs, CCs, or vega are, stick to shares. Those should work just fine.
Let’s break this down into 5 parts: electrification story and leadership, multiples expansion, technical analysis, options, and the trade.
By the way, in 2019, the Ford F-Series was second only to the Apple iPhone, which raked in $55 billion, in terms of total revenue generated. The F-Series generated more revenue than the NFL, MLB, NBA, and the NHL combined, which added up to $40 billion. Just something to think about.

The wheels on the bus go round and round, round and round...

Electrification story and leadership:
Let’s jump into history for a second. Ford had a meteoric rise from 1997 - 1999 from $15 to around $32 at the peak. This was due to $F reporting massive earnings increases each quarter:

• Dec 1996 - 1997 Ford F-150 - Truck of the Year
  
• Jan 1997 - Ford profits up 82 percent
  
• Oct 1997 - Ford profits up 64 percent
  
• Jan 1998 - Ford profits up 56 percent
  

They were just feasting and feasting. Jim Farley looks like the best person alive to revitalize Ford, capable of tripling the stock in 2-3 years. Look at the last two quarters:

• Q3-2020 - Adjusted EPS: 65 cents vs 19 cents expected, Automotive revenue: $34.71 billion vs $33.51 billion expected (due to pent up demand)
  
• Q2-2020 - Adjusted EPS: A loss of 35 cents per share versus a loss of $1.17 per share expected, Automotive revenue: $16.6 billion versus $15.95 billion expected.
  

Here are excerpts from the Q3 earnings and some other notable highlights:

Farley: Now that plan, which was introduced to the Ford team and many stakeholders on October 1, is very straightforward. Among other things, No. 1, we will compete like a challenger, earning each customer with great products but as well services with rewarding ownership experiences. Number two, we're moving with urgency to turn around our automotive operations, improve our quality, reduce our cost and accelerate the restructuring of underperforming businesses.
And third, we're going to grow again but in the right areas, allocating more capital, more resources, more talent to our very strongest businesses and vehicle franchises; incubating, scaling and integrating new businesses, some of them enabled by new technology like Argo's world-class self-driving system; and expanding our leading commercial vehicle business with great margins but now with the suite of software services that drive loyalty and generate reoccurring annuity-like revenue streams; and being a leader in electric vehicle revolution around the world where we have strength and scale. So now speaking about EVs. To start with, we're developing all-new electric versions of the F-150 and the Transit, the two most important, highest-volume commercial vehicles in our industry. These leading vehicles really drive the commercial vehicle business at Ford, and we're electrifying them.

Quick sidebar here from my buddy M: "Whereas traditional manufact / consumer / industrials are valued on an EBITDA multiple, SAAS has historically been valued on a revenue multiple, which translates to flat out higher valuations. EVs themselves are not necessarily a higher margin product that justifies a higher multiple (at least not that I've seen), but tech services / subscriptions are the real money makers in this game. Hint Hint companies like Apple throwing everything they have at trying to integrate services and subscriptions over the last 5 years"
This further justifies the expansion multiples we expect will catch up to leading EV automakers (see below).

We own work at Ford. And these electric vehicles will be true work vehicles, extremely capable and with unique digital services and over-the-air capabilities to improve the productivity and uptime of our important commercial customers. The electric Transit, by the way, will be revealed next month, and you heard about it here first, for all of our global markets. We believe the addressable market for a fully electric commercial van and pickup, the two largest addressable profit pools in commercial, are going to be massive.
Now you're going to see our strategy of electrifying our leading commercial vehicles and our iconic high-volume products expand very quickly at Ford.
When you look at our results, they reflect the benefit of our decision two years ago to allocate capital to our strongest franchise, namely: pickups, a whole range of utilities across the world, commercial vehicles and iconic passenger vehicles. Additionally, we saw higher-than-expected demand for our new vehicles in the quarter.
Together, these factors, plus the strongest performance from Ford Credit in 15 years, led to a total company adjusted EBIT margin of 9.7%. That's 490 basis points higher than last year.
As an outcome of all this, we generated $6.3 billion in adjusted free cash flow.
The strong cash flow in the quarter gave us the confidence and the ability to make a second payment on our corporate revolver, which we did on September 24. So now we have fully repaid the entire $15 billion facility, and we ended the third quarter with a strong balance sheet, including nearly $30 billion in cash and more than $45 billion of liquidity, which provides us with the vital financial flexibility we need.

Check out this credit downgrade weeks before Ford paid off their revolving credit facility. Smells like GME?
Alright. What about Q4-2020 and beyond? Ford is expected to post a loss. TA is signaling a beat (see the TA section). Ford is spending this money in order further restructure and deliver on the following items in their pipeline:
Bronco:

• Within the first month of open reservations, the Bronco had received an estimated 230,000 reservations. 230,000 reservations is an incredibly impressive figure, especially when put into the context of Ford’s total vehicle sales. 230,000 sales would represent 4% of Ford’s total sales.
  
• Current estimates place over 20% of reservation holders as first-time Ford buyers.
  
• The most expensive trim, the limited ‘First Edition’, has already sold out.
  

Mach-E vs Tesla Model Y. Just the fact that there is debate between the better car is bullish for Ford.

• Source 1
  
• Source 2
  
• Source 3
  

The upcoming 2021 F-150 has positive consumer reviews as well:

• The 2021 Ford F-150 Is So Stuffed With New Tech & Gadgets That Even Tesla Owners Are Impressed!
  
• DeMuro - The 2021 Ford F-150 Is Totally New and Really Impressive
  
• Some other nice features: Fold down the shifter, lay seats down completely flat, speakers in headrest, tailgate worksurface (pen/pencil holders, rulers) C clamp, 120V outlet, bottle opener, light), sensing running board, tailgate step and railing, and more. Watch the video.
  

Ford Raptor launch (just happened today, customers are excited. Look at the comments on YouTube and IG)
Further potential tailwinds:

• Ford partnering with Rivian in a $500M deal. Product yet to be released.
  
• Google partnership that caused the intraday spike on 2/2.
  
• Ford is rumored to secure the USPS contract since deal talks are falling through with WKHS.
  

The Postal Service told Trucks.com that it expects to reach a contract with one or more of the teams bidding for the business in the federal government’s second fiscal quarter of 2021. That works out to the first quarter of next year.

• There is a historical inverse relationship between gas prices and car sizing. Tell me if I'm reaching here. But as America continues to head towards electrification and energy independence under Biden, larger gas cars will be more in demand. Furthermore, the aftershock of COVID will continue to propagate the dedensification of cities. Less commuter vehicles, and more travel vehicles. And look who is conveniently positioned to take advantage of all of this?
  
• Dr. Anning Chen is also a killer CEO of Ford China. This is largely intangibles (which Wall Street cannot model), but watch his interviews here and here.
  
• Dr. Chen used the COVID shutdown to improve the operational efficiency of the company. It has not shown on the bottom line thus far, but it will later.
  
• CTO Dr. Ken Washington bio. Ex Lockheed.
  
• Kennard on the board.. PE guy, on the AT&T board and former FCC chairman.
  
• Vojvodich. Ex CRM and ADHZ.
  
• Regarding the above leadership and BOD members, experienced executives are a better fit for running the day-to-day than any other. Add a sprinkle of savvy techfin folk and you have a recipe for a elite transition.
  

English please? Ford is a strong company. Farley is delivering on his promises and can lead the company towards an operationally efficient turnaround towards electrification. Combine this with a loyal customer base rivaled only by AAPL, and you get another special opportunity. This is the turning point.
Multiples Expansion:
Now here lies the crux of the thesis. Amidst all the EV hype, Ford is being unfairly ignored at an extremely depressed multiple compared to the other companies in the EV space. Here are some comparisons (numbers may be slightly outdated, pulled earlier this week, more relative comparison than absolute):
$Ticker - Market Cap - TTM Revenue MM - TTM EBITDA MM - Revenue Multiple - Ebitda Multiple
TSLA - $810B - $28B - $4B - 29X - 202X
NIO - $92B - $12B - ($7B) - 7.6X - (NaN)
GM - $78B - $116B - $18B - 0.7X - 4.3X
F - $44B - $131B - $10B - 0.3X - 4.4X
That’s an eyesore. Let’s focus on just TSLA and Ford, because why not. Assuming Ford can quickly turn towards electrification (from the evidence above), these two companies are fair comparisons. No Tesla is not a software/energy company, look at their automotive % of revenue. Stop it. It has only recently dropped to 80% due to the expansion of their leasing division. Energy is still a tiny part of TSLA.
Revenue Multiple:
TSLA = 29X
F = 0.3X
EBITDA Multiple:
TSLA = 202X
F = 4.4X
Yes those numbers are correct. Look at them for 60 seconds and tell me what you see. Quick quote from my buddy M:

Just zoom out and think. TSLA is for sure ahead of the rest on their tech and charging infra right now. But in terms of just overall bottom line infrastructure and manufacturing capability; once the GMs, Fs, and VWs of the world can get the ball rolling, they are way ahead in that aspect. Much more experience in production and retail / distribution channels, as well as logistics sourcing. Plenty of battery makers, and self driving tech makers out there too right now. Small to mid scale M&A will probably be the name of the game if I had to guess.

This is why Burry is short $TSLA, but two scenarios can unfold: either the high-flying stocks drop, or Ford rises. I believe we will land somewhere in the middle, with Ford rising as we begin to enter the optimism phase in the final third of our bull market.
Shorting is a dangerous game anyway... So I’ve been hearing on the news...
TA, Options:
Exhibit A from our resident chart whisperer J (who will remain unnamed because you monkeys keep bothering him).
Larger view.
As you can see, the trendline has broken out.
Exhibit B from our resident quant T (also to rename unnamed):

Starting on 1/4 you'll find right tail distributions into any liquidation which represent large buying. Which has led up to a recent run-up and eventually left tail distributions which represent short coverings which lead into the gaps and thinner distributions where there aren't any major bids. Even with the pullback on 1/22 we see more right tail distribution after the profit taking from the recent run-up, which means someone is buying up the inventory.
This is unusual for F, where F trades within tight ranges. On 2/1 you can see a bimodal distribution which means a new player has stepped in, which we assume has additional knowledge apart from the larger players that were already in the market. The recent range between 10.70 and 11.20 indicates that the market has accepted this price range as fair value. Without additional research at first glance we can see that a large player (or players) is buying up a significant amount of inventory.
On 1/4 we find that the volume increased to 77,559,128 from the previous trading of 34,462,454 (125% increase) and 33,127,776 the day before that. Volume has been higher since.
On our first major left tail distribution (which represents short covering) since the buying on 1/4 the volume was at 113,707,973.

Exhibit C
250k shares of F 10.92; 100k F 11.04; 3.53m F 9.78; 708k F 9.78; 500k F 9.64; 377k F 9.50; 338k F 9.50; 201k F 9.75; 192k F 9.80; 150k F 9.77
These are blocks of shares bought in the past 7 days
Top OI changes:
+19610 F 02/05/21 11 C 43821 38% 13% 48%
+12904 F 02/05/21 12 C 31929 38% 11% 52%
Top OI positions:
170902 F 02/19/21 10 C +807 26% 49% 25%
112480 F 02/19/21 12 C +3207 29% 29% 41%
The percentages are bid mid ask.
Someone is bullish on Ford.
For an earnings play, daily RSI is oversold looking towards an uptick.
Options gamma is interesting to note as well.
Open interest on 2/5 $13 and $15Cs are also notable. Could be covered calls? Could be someone knows something?
Could be Jeff reading too much into the tea leaves. Not financial advice. Just showing you what I see.
The Trade: The simplest way is just to purchase shares and collect dividends as Ford may reinstate them sometime in 2021. Possibly leaps if you feel adventurous.
For the option junkies like myself, and as a tribute to the greatest company in American history, I will use the wheel(s). The GME trade was a very special and momentous occasion. Now that we have a bankroll, we’ll just quietly play theta gang as we enjoy our lives and spend time with our families and loved ones. Here’s a good summary.
This is not for amateurs. I mean, none of this is financial advice anyway, just educational.
But in a nutshell, I will: 1) Buy shares, 2) Sell CSPs 30-45 days out with 0.3 delta, 3) sell CCs with 0.3 delta (will reconsider this if Ford goes vertical) 4) Collect dividends.
The Wheel doesn’t work on everything. Here are the qualifications from the above post, let me know if this sounds familiar:

• Profitable company that has solid cash flow
  
• Bullish, or Very Bullish, analyst ratings
  
• Priced around $10 to $50 so that I can afford to take the assignment if needed and I stay away from sub-$10 stocks as a rule
  
• A stable chart without wild gyrations (especially those caused by CEO tweets!)
  
• A nice dividend is always a good thing, both that you may collect it if assigned the stock but also that dividend stocks tend to more stable and predictable.
  

Hmm...
Conclusion:
Ford is a massive, complex, multinational corporation so I’ve likely missed very many things, but I wanted to get this out before ER so I can flex again. (No market manipulation here lol. My buddy's multi-million dollar block buys didn't move the needle one iota.) There are many things I haven’t covered, and simply don’t know yet. As more facts begin to unfold, and as I spend more time with the stock, I’ll share the information here. Also, every time I post about an equity, it seems to go down. Lol... (GME). With all this in mind, this is still a very risky bet.
Nevertheless, I like what I’ve seen thus far. Ford looks like a fantastically healthy company in the midst of a turnaround towards electrification with a phenomenally depressed multiple according to the market’s appetite. It deserves a multiple trending towards TSLA’s, not a dying auto manufacturer. Jim Farley has shown early to be a great CEO and I think he can continue the transformation. We’ve begun to enter a phase of exuberance, so I’ll choose to long Ford instead of short TSLA.
As a bonus, we have the opportunity to join forces with the boomers and talking heads and bet on one of their favorite companies. Time for America to be on the same side again. We’ve been divided for too long.
I know my GME posts were lucky. I’ll stake my reputation on another bet. One call sure is lucky. What about two? In any case, investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Glad to be a part of this journey with you all. Note: I will not discuss GME in the comments, which all depends on Ryan Cohen. There is nothing further to add until Q4 earnings.
And finally, we’ve officially entered the last phase of our very long bull market. This is not necessarily a sell signal yet, as some of the greatest returns can come in this period and can last for a long time. I will do my best to look for the signal and sound the alarm. The world will be celebrating, and I will be bearish. Burry’s passive indexing bubble call in combination with Thiel’s government debt bubble call will lead us into a dark time of unprecedented proportions. Tail risk hedging won’t work as the declines will be slow at first, and then fast and violent and unrecoverable. Be careful. Listen to Ken Fisher. Thank you very much for your time.
Positions: Bullish shares, LEAPS, on-going quadruple income wheel strategy as Ford reinstates the dividend. Timeframe 12-18 months. Watch out VIGILANTLY for macro risks. Bear market is on the horizon. Drop some Fs in the chat to pay respects.
PT: $32 with a chance of $98 if we start to see exuberance in the broader market.
-JA

I am 32/Canadian and had a very high paying career that had a short shelf life. During my high producing years I wanted to move out of Canada to another country where I could save as much as I could for my future because I knew my income would not last forever.
"Abroad" was a weird term form me. Despite being Canadian and having lived most of my adult years in Canada I felt like everywhere was abroad for me.
I was born in one of the poorest countries of Europe and lived there until I was 17 years old. The country has come a long way today but when I go back I never fit in. I definitely feel more connected with Canada than the country I was born in.
I think a big reason why I focused so hard on work was to never get back to the level of poverty I grew up as a child. Think of North Korea and Venezuela in one combo. In 1997 there was a complete lock down due to civil war and my family was lucky enough to survive because we had a vegetable garden and chickens. If you left your home you could be shot/robbed or worse be killed from stepping on a mine. The city was covered in them.
The other reason was that women got treated like second class citizens where I was born and my childhood was a living hell where I wasn't even allowed to walk on the street alone (even after they took out the mines), talk to members of the opposite sex or have any friends. Dating was not a concept and if they know you are "dating" you have to immediately get engaged and then married and have children or else you are a "whore".
I always had a bubbly personality when I was young, I liked to act, dance, and really liked learning. I was also interested in entrepreneurship and got a full scholarship at York University to study business but to my parents a woman is not suited for business and they pushed me to study molecular biology instead. I hated my University years. I battled depression and never really saw a future for myself with biology.
I ran away from home at 19 and asked my local university what help was there for someone like me that wanted to start a business. To my surprise they were very helpful and told me about grants and loans I could apply to get started. My first business was face painting and entertainment for children's birthday parties and events. I remember I got a $5000 loan and it seemed like so much money at the time. It helped me buy my first car and get started. I grew my business from just me to having 10 employees, having permanent booths in theme parks and festivals in Canada. It was hard work but I loved it. During the time I was still in university and most of my work was summeweekends so it worked out ok.
I remember I was growing more and more fed up with my studies and walked out of my last exam with a smile feeling absolute freedom. I never finished my degree and I was so ok with it even if I was one exam away from graduation. I didn't care about the crazy amounts of student loans I had accumulated. All I wanted was to grow my business and make money. It gave me that thrill that sitting in a lab using a microscope never did.
One day I became curious about online streaming and after having a few drinks with a friend I made an application on a popular site (at the time). The site was more like webcamming but you were allowed to do whatever you wanted on cam as long as there was no guys.
I didn't think much of it because I was doing well with my other business. At the time I had a rocky relationship with an ex bf and decided maybe going online and flirting with men would make me feel better about my break up. Then saw this email about the site I had previously applied had accepted my application.
I did my first stream completely clothed, having fun and chatting with people. I made $4.00 usd which was shit but I had so much fun doing it so I started researching the industry more. After a few more streams I decided this had a potential to be something big and I decided to make a business plan and focus on it entirely. I was constantly doing 10-12h on cam and loved to come up with new creative ideas to entertain people.
I went from making $4.00 my first day to making just shy off a million dollars a year. The money was not the focus but being the best at what I did was.
During my high earning years I knew I had to save and plan for my future. Most of the other performers would have one good month making $150,000 then disappear and not be relevant again. I don't know how I managed to last in the industry for over 8 years, but I am greatful that my hard work was combined with luck and being at the right place/right time.
I moved to Mexico when I was 26 years old.
My life in Mexico was great the first two years. I was dating someone that was super supportive with my work schedule. It was the honeymoon phase. We would always eat out and enjoy nice places and expensive travel. I was always frugal with everything else but vacations and experiences. Looking back my mistake was that I paid for everything and my bf at the time felt used to this cushy life that ended up expecting it. He was bad with managing money too and had a lot of debt which stupiditly I ended up paying off.
During this time I had bought various income properties in central Mexico (in a retirement village) and the agreement was that since I was making more money with my online business which required long hours on cam, my ex was supposed to take care of property management. At first he was engaged then ended up not so pationate about it. I felt used and underappreciated.
When I realized all this I was pregnant with our child. He told me he was unhappy living in a retirement village and wanted to move to a bigger city in Mexico. I told him we could try it out because it would offer more opportunities for our child as well. That's where things went downhill. He constantly ignored me and refused to help with chores in the house. I had a high risk pregnacy so I couldn't do much myself either.
After a few months he ended up cheating and experienced a mental break down, trying to commit suicide. I was crushed. I didn't know what happened and despite my efforts to send him to get the best medical help in the country he never was the same. I really wanted to help him get back on his feet again because I thought we were a team for life. I was wrong.
He ended up leaving the country one day when my son was only a few months old and has not been back in over 3 years. I have never heard back from him and I don't know if he's dead or alive.
I was crushed and myself experienced a complete burn out from work/personal loss at the time. Physically I became ill too and dropped down up 42 kg. I knew I had to do something about it because I had a son to take care of.
Looking back at it now it was an amazing opportunity for me to realize there was more to life than work. It helped me realize that I should have not provided everything just because I loved someone but let them provide and create on their own. If they refused I had to know they were using me as a wallet and to not get involved.
RETIREMENT
It's been one full year since I have been completely off work. It happened in 2020 out of all years. Before I tried to work on and off but my love for my job wasn't the same.
I can say I feel much less stressed than I did years ago. My health is better and my sleep schedule is so much better than it was before.
For the first time I now feel more Integrated in Mexico and I don't think I am missing out much not living in Canada.
Where I live it's safe, it has a high quality of life and there's a lot of international business around. Not that I want to open a new business here but I think it's important to be surrounded by other people that have seen more of the world and are also successful.
On top of that I have always felt like a hybrid of many cultures and being surrounded by people that have moved around the world means that we get to be hybrids together and they understand me better than say someone that lived in Canada/USA all their lives and never left the country.
Mexico has many bad things as well but no county is perfect. Choosing the right location to live in Mexico is very important to not be affected a lot by the bad things.
The pace of life is also much more calmer than in Canada and the US. This can be bad if you want to start a business here but it's a good place to be during retirement.
Also people are a lot less "offended" from things and I find it's easier to make friends than it was in Canada. My general perception of Canada was that people in Canada are very helpful to strangers but much colder if you want to have a meaningful friendship. Of course there are exceptions but that was my experience.
One thing I did not like about the western culture is the victim mentality that the youth of today are embracing. If they can't get something they usually blame the government for not doing enough for them.
Some women blame men for "the patriarchy" and some Canadians blame foreigners because 'they took away their cheap homes and they can't afford real estate'
Having lived in a real "shit hole" country where women get treated like crap I want to remind you that Canada and the US are the land of opportunities compared to most of the world.
Success is not guaranteed for anyone but all the information is free in English for you to look up and use it to your advantage. You don't even have to learn a second language to access it.
Being a woman or a minority gives you the same legal rights as everyone else if not more sometimes. I don't think most western feminists know what it's like to live in a muslim country.
My point is: Westerners are not grateful enough for what they have.
Complaining is human nature so of course it happens in Mexico but the majority know that their government won't do shit for them and they focus on what they can do as an individual. This can be bad too wich is reflected in the general sentiment Mexicans have for public property but that's another problem I won't get into.
Overall i am happy where I have come in my journey. I know I haven't got it all figured out despite having a 4.5 million net worth I don't feel complete being 100% retired.
I am currently building real estate in Mexico, investing in stocks and excercising to keep me busy.
After things open up I will travel more but the urge to have everything figured out which I experienced immediately once I stopped working is less.
Also: It's lonely at the top:
I like to think of myself as an easy and approachable person, however I think having a different upbringing and dedicating and reaching high levels of financial success at a very young age, makes relating to most people not as easy. I think humans form stronger bonds when they share and solve similar problems together. That's why I lurk in this forum from time to time. It makes me realize at the end of the day I'm not alone.
A lot of the questions that get asked here on a daily basis are questions that I ask myself all the time.
The funny part is that no one has the answers, I don't either and the more I live the more I realize that the answers don't matter.
The only realisation I have so far is:
The key to being rich is living in the moment, enjoying the company of your loved ones and being greatful for what you have.
Don't let your brain trick you into overthinking and stay away from the compulsion to use fatFIRE calculators all the time.
Just get out for a walk instead and leave your phone at home. We could be hit by a car tomorrow and none of that shit matters as much as you think.
Edit: since many have asked the country was Albania. I responded here how I ended up in Canada:
https://www.reddit.com/fatFIRE/comments/lh30x8/my_expat_fatfire_journey_abroad_long/gmwn401?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3

Greeting Theta Gang boys and girls,
I hope you're well and not bankrupt after last week. I'm just now recovering mentally myself. I saw a few WSB converts and some newbies asking for tips, so here you go. V2 of my Options guide. I hope it helps.
​
I spent a huge amount of time learning about options and tried to distill my knowledge down into a helpful guide. This should especially be useful for newbies and growing options traders.
While I feel I’m a successful trader, I'm not a guru and my advice is not meant to be gospel, but this will hopefully be a good starting point, teach you a lot, and make you a better trader. I plan to keep typing up more info from my notebook, expanding this guide, and posting it every couple months.
Any feedback or additions are appreciated
Per requests, I added details of good and bad trades I made. Some painful lessons learned are now included. I also tried to organize this better as it got longer.
Here's what I tell options beginners:
I would strongly recommend buying a beginner's options book and read it cover to cover. That helped me a lot.
I like this beginner book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00GWSXX8U/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_OxNDFb2GK9YW7
Helpful websites:

• Tasty Trade (TT) and Ally Invest have helpful articles and videos.
  • https://www.tastytrade.com/tt
  • https://www.youtube.com/c/tastytrade1/featured
• Ally training:
  • What is options trading? https://www.ally.com/do-it-right/investing/trading-options-for-beginners/?CP=EM2012111
  • Top 10 options mistakes: https://www.ally.com/do-it-right/investing/top-10-option-trading-mistakes/?CP=EM2012111
• 3 common option mistakes: https://us.etrade.com/knowledge/library/options/common-mistakes-options-traders-make
• Common options strategies: https://www.optionsbro.com/basic-options-strategies/
• Investopedia has tons of great investing info for stocks and options: https://www.investopedia.com/
• Kamikaze Cash Theta Gang Videos: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLOweupE79XXiBaeH_xBpkUcYUsrAaKQen
• 20 rules of professional traders: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/022715/20-rules-followed-professional-traders.asp

Don't trade until you understand:

• You can lose your entire contract value when buying.
• You can lose a lot of money when selling "naked", theoretically unlimited.
• How option expiration works.
• Theta (decay) and how it works. This is imperative since it's attrition when buying and a payout when selling. https://www.optionseducation.org/advancedconcepts/theta
• DTE: Days till expiration/expiry
• Options positions with respect to price:
  • ITM: In the money; strike is below stock value. Signif
  • ATM: At the money; strike is just at or above the stock value, often very highly traded. Can be very effective with moderate - long term expiry.
  • NTM: Near the money; strike is above the stock value, but fairly close. Slightly unofficial term.
  • OTM: Out of the money; price is at least a few strikes from the current stock price. I would say 10-30% over stock price.
  • Very OTM: Not a real definition, this is essentially a lottery ticket. Cheap, but almost certain to expire worthless unless there is explosive movement.
• Understand delta in general and how delta changes with ITM and OTM options.
• Understand all the greeks at a high level, as you get better understand them well. The greeks: https://www.optionsplaybook.com/options-introduction/option-greeks/
• IV, IV crush, and how IV affects pricing. In general, you want to sell when IV is high and buy when the IV is low. Increasing IV is good for held calls/puts. IV drop or crush is generally good for sellers.
• Selling options can be quite beneficial. Once you have a good general understanding, lookup thetagang . Kamikaze Cash has good youtube videos on most theta strategies (linked above). I personally believe selling options (especially cash secured) is much safer and can consistently make you profits. Θ Gang 4 life.
• FOMO and how to avoid chasing a dangerous trend. DO NOT CHASE FROM FOMO!
• What intrinsic and extrinsic value are. Know how they are affected by being exercised/assigned and how theta affects them.
• Understand that some of WSB recommendations are straight up high-risk gambling and factor in the information accordingly. Be careful with Meme stocks and the survivorship bias on YOLO plays. However, I love the sub and think it’s hilarious. It has a lot of valuable information / DD if you are comfortable with the “colorful” language. It’s also great if you like rocket ship emojis.

Basics / Mechanics

• Understand the 4 "main" option types. Buying or selling a call and buying or selling a put. Spreads and more complex multi-legged option strategies are based off these in some way (see below)
• You can sell calls with 100 shares of stock or if you own an underlying longer term option; see LEAPS and PMCCs later. Selling calls naked is incredibly risky and often requires Level 4 (very advanced) permissions and usually a lot of capital. I will literally never sell calls naked since I don't want to ruin my life and end up living in a dumpster eating saltine crackers.
• Puts can be sold/written cash covered (cash secured), which means you have the cash in your account to buy 100 shares. Your broker will put this money on hold until the trade is closed. Puts can be sold "naked" using Margin and Level 3 (with most brokers). Your broker will hold a percentage of cost of 100 shares (often 30-40%, 100% on meme stocks) allowing you to sell more puts. This increases your available capital/power as well as increasing risk.

General Tips and Ideas:

• Don't EVER leave (short) spreads open on expiration day, close them. (more details below)
• Start off trading very small. Slowly build up over weeks / months. You need to get accustomed to a fifty dollar swing a day, then a few hundred, then a few thousand. You need to ensure you don't get emotional (see below). I started trading options with 5k, then 25k, 50k, and later over 100k. I added my own funds over time and used my gains to build my account. Don’t go all in immediately, that’s dangerous and unwise.
• Especially as you build up the amount of money you have invested, keep it diversified among several stocks.
  • Don't go all in on one thing, ever. Be able to take a hit from one stock and not mortally wound your portfolio.
  • A company may be doing great, then there's a major product issue out of nowhere. If you are overexposed in one stock this can really hurt you.
  • I had to roll options I sold that were about to expire completely worthless because FDX's CEO changed and the stock took a hard dip.
• Don't trade emotionally. If you realize you are emotionally trading for vengeance, you should probably exit the trade and cool off for several days with that stock. Same if you get caught up in a wave of hysteria.
• Have a plan for every trade, ideally with entries / exits that are specific values, ranges, or a set condition. This helps remove emotions. This is super important for strong movements and high volatility (see later).
• Use an options profit calculator from your broker or an online one before entering a "new" trade, especially a complex multi legged trade: https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/
• “Rolling” an option: Closing your existing option and opening a similar one at different strike and/or expiration.
  • Rolling a call “Up” would be selling a call you own and buying a cheaper call at a higher strike.
  • Rolling a put “Down and out” closes your original one and buying or selling one at a lower strike at a longer expiry.
  • Better broker interfaces have a literal “Roll” button. I know E-trade does. You can manually do it by selecting relevant contract legs.
• If you have a losing trade, re-evaluate it. If your initial assumption is definitely incorrect, close it. Don't stay in losing trades forever and lose the entire value of the option over stubbornness. If you re-evaluate and you think your assumption was right, hold, potentially consider adding another cheaper option (or buy another call / put). Rolling out sold options can help here.
• Don't try to day trade, especially with options. It's statistically unlikely to be profitable. Day-trading with options introduces extra liquidity risks and is dangerous, especially with spreads.
• Try not to over-trade, you'll likely mis-time the market over time. When I get emotional I over trade, then lose additional money on wash sales. If you scale your entries into positions it should help alleviate your desire to exit positions when they turn badly against you. Whenever I buy calls I do it at larger increments after W almost made me loss my hair; luckily it eventually came back.
• NEVER enter a position on a stock you have no idea about, especially when you read about it online or heard about it from some rando.
• At market open options contracts are often volatile and inflated. Buying during this time can be more expensive. Options are usually cheaper mid-day, I read somewhere 2-3PM is cheapest. I’ve had success around 12-1PM EST after prices settle.
• Try wheeling on cheaper stocks once you get all fundamentals down.
• When selling puts if you are very bullish consider "doubling down"; note this is higher risk. Use the credit from your put sale to buy shares or a cheap call. This can be roughly inversed with puts, except I wouldn't ever recommend shorting shares.
• Learn from your mistakes. You can’t go back in time and beating yourself up (to a point) is useless. Make a physical &/or mental note of it so you don’t do it again. If you don’t learn from it, then beat yourself up so you won’t do it again.
• If you have friends that like to trade, I find it helpful to discuss strategies and planned plays. I talk openly with my close friends about my current holdings and planned trades, it helps keep me accountable. If I get a wide-eyed look, I might be doing something excessively risky or stupid. I’ve over-leveraged myself in calls twice and I knew I shouldn’t have done it both times. When I tell my friends what I did and I’m embarrassed, it exemplifies the face that I shouldn’t have done it in the first place. You will also get ideas for new strategies or plays from them. It’s good to stay versatile and use multiple strategies when appropriate. Beware of group think/echo chambers.
• I recommend NEVER telling someone what to buy/sell and when. I’ll tell people MY plays or what I like and why, but I will not encourage them to emulate what I do. Depending on the audience, I’ll tell them my exact positions along with my exit and entrance strategy. With closer friends I’ll offer my thoughts on their trades (if asked). If my friend is doing something really risky (one of my friends does some scary stuff) I may ask them if they want my advice, and provide it, especially if they overlooked a risk/event. I will not encourage someone to execute/enter a trade since it has a high potential for hurt feelings or animosity all around.
• Don’t fall in love with a stock. Just because something made you money before and you have high confidence in it doesn’t mean it will keep performing. I joke that FDX betrayed me when it started dipping and losing me money. I was over-confident of its bounce-back and sold too many puts too quickly. I’m in several losing trades because of it. However, I will keep good stocks in my rostetracking list or try different strategies or re-enter trades when they change their behavior.
• As you start to both buy and sell options and get more experience in general, you'll start seeing the two sides to every trade. You will likely start adjusting your strategies or trying new trades out because of this. Things will likely click one day. Most/all the greeks and options concepts will become almost second nature. For me this was when I could build an Iron Condor from scratch, which was a watershed moment involving a good understanding of many strategies.
• Understand Liquidity and volume.
  • Trading in low volume, low open interest contracts results in wide bid/ask spreads and difficulty having your contracts filled. Look at all the data for a contract, not just the strike and price.
  • Monthly Expiration dates typically have better liquidity.
  • Multi-legged trades (Common examples are 2-legged vertical spreads or 4-legged iron condors) have more difficulty being filled, especially on bad brokers like Robin Hood. Having very liquid options for all legs is extremely helpful in obtaining timely and well-priced fills, which maximize your potential profits.
• Time in market vs timing the market:
  • It is extremely difficult to time the market perfectly. If you wait for the perfect opportunity forever, history has proven you will miss out on gains. Keeping all your money out of the market has proven to be ineffective. Now if there is something serious happening with a stock/the market (like say a new pandemic), don’t go all in. I recommend entering incrementally at dips. If the stock has huge upside potential it may never go down, so it might make sense to partially enter at the current price.
  • IMIO selling puts is a great strategy to get into a stock you like, or at least make money off it. I think buying stock in lots of 100 is usually for suckers. Selling an ATM or ITM put (assuming the math works out) on a stock you were going to buy and hold is ALMOST free money.
  • I recommend keeping some cash available regardless. If you have a very large account or expect a downturn, hedging with indexes like QQQ, SPY, or VIX or calls/puts may be wise.
• Every trade can't be a winner. You will take some losses, you must get used to it. I don’t like having a realized loss of 1K or more on any trade. However, this will happen, especially with larger accounts.
  • As long as you win more often and beat the S&P that year I consider it okay. I’m kind of aggressive, so I consider 20%+ annually good. 30%+ annually is great. 40%+ and I’m dancing. After trading options I am almost baffled by my old belief that 5% annual returns (mostly from dividend ETFs) was “good”. That’s nothing to me now since I’m willing to take risks. Note: While lots of people danced in 2020, realize that’s an insane Bull Run year and is atypical.
  • Adhere to your own risk tolerance and never over-extend yourself, especially with margin use. Don’t make huge gambles leaving you uncomfortable. Only gamble with money you are willing to lose.
  • My personal strategy is to make safer gains for the year and then enter slightly riskier strategies using those gains. I can be slightly-moderately more aggressive and compound my gains. For me I often sell puts to make money, then when I see a big opportunity I’ll sell a put and buy an OTM or moderately ITM call.
• Understand it’s not safe to try and get rich overnight. However, once you hit big “steps” things may start to snowball. You can enter more positions and take more risks if you choose to.
  • For me this when I hit 50k, then 100k. I was able to balance low and moderate risk positions to more significantly grow my account. I’ll even do a high risk thing now and again because my gains can absorb it (assuming I have them).
  • I can’t wait to get to 250K, then 500K. I know it’ll take quite a long time, but I am confident I’ll eventually be able to have 500K and (hopefully) 1M in my non-401k trading account with gains and additions from my job. I can only imagine how “dangerous” I will be with that kind of capital.
• If you missed "the next big thing" like AAPL, TSLA, or the time machine I’m building in my basement. Don't get upset, learn from it. Adapt and become a better trader for next time.
  • Figure out why a company was so promising, before they mooned. Determine how you would have traded differently in hindsight. Apply those lessons to the next company you believe has long term growth prospects.
  • For me that's putting in 1-2.5k towards shares and/or buying LEAPS on it. Depending on my bullishness I may buy “cheap”, fairly far OTM calls. The far OTM options are sort of lottery tickets. If I'm right the (relatively) low cost will have explosive profits; if I'm wrong, they didn't cost that much so it's a calculated loss I’m willing to accept. For more serious bets I’ll buy ITM LEAPS to run PMCCs on. I also like to buy 1-2K in my 401k for very long-term plays.
• The stock market hates uncertainty, it seems to crave the status quo. A shakeup can potential tank a stock, even if it's nothing. With shares you can wait it out, but this can be problematic for options. If you see volatile/uncertain times ahead (politics, disease, manufacturing, earnings, etc.), you might want to reduce your overall portfolio risks or hedge.

Profit Retention / Loss Mitigation

• If selling options, it is a viable strategy to close early after a large gain with many DTE left until expiry. See TT videos / strategies on this.
• Don't hold options through earnings unless you literally want to gamble. I like playing on earnings run ups, but that can be risky.
• If you hold options through earnings, IV crush will happen immediately afterwards, devaluing the option. However, if the option is profitable enough, IV crush won’t matter, which will still make money for a call buyer. A sold put sufficiently far OTM will benefit from IV crush, even if the stock dips after slightly bad or lukewarm earnings.
• Don't throw good money after bad. Don't gamble on a recovery if your assumption appears to be wrong or the market is flat out tanking. If you are wrong and still believe in the company, wait twice as long as your original plan (wait for your 2nd entry point vs 1st) before adding to your position.
• Consider using stop losses to lock-in profits on rides up or sometimes use them to prevent losses. Note, stops can be easily triggered in volatile options. Now when I'm up a lot on calls (especially around earnings or large momentum run-ups) I always set stop losses. I have been burned too many times. In December 2020 I didn't set a SL on several thousand dollars of FDX calls I was already up on and I "lost" ~$5K of unrealized gains. If you're up big, don't get too greedy.
• A possible strategy if a stock is on a tear and you have multiple options open: Close some positions (I prefer to do this incrementally if the stock has momentum), but leave 1+ open in case the stock goes into outer space/the floor. Next, set a stop loss with a little buffer below its current movement / range so it doesn't get hit unless the stock falls hard. Finally, watch the stock closely and if it keeps rising, keep moving the stop loss up in little bits incrementally. This will let you keep more profits on a hot streak, but give some protection and secure more gains. It will also help eliminate FOMO if a stock exceeds your expectations.
• Have rules when to roll out, down & out, or up & out. I like TT’s roll at break even or at 1x loss and to always roll for a credit (or for me a very minor cost). Obviously these rules need some monitoring. Know your stocks, the news, and technicals so you don’t jump the gun.
  • If you roll early for a credit and you’re right, it’s not the end of the world. You’ll just need to hold longer, which will obviously tie up capital. Sometimes it’s better to tie up some money (especially if you aren’t paying interest) than eating a huge loss.
  • Rolling too late can be worse though. I currently have a very underwater FDX put I sold that is over 2x loss, rolling it does almost nothing unless you want to pay a debit or extend it extremely far out.
• On huge options gains, I strongly you recommend taking profits by rolling up/down or incrementally sell your contracts at several different prices (this is why having multiple contracts is nice).
  • Rolling up involves selling your initial call, then using a fraction of your proceeds to buy a cheaper, further OTM call with the same expiry; puts are inverse this. When rolling up I like to ensure the new option’s cost is 15-40% of my realized gains. I’ll buy a more or less expensive new optoin based on my convication to the stock and predicted movements. You can also roll up and out to get a further expiry and strike.
  • This is monumentally important if you are playing with incredibly high rising stocks or during a short squeeze.
  • Sad story time: I completely screwed up when I forgot to roll up, twice, during the GME gamma/short squeeze. I didn’t take my own advice; I didn’t have a real exit or transition plan and I got emotional. It all happened so fast and I was at work; the insanity of the run up and subsequent gamma squeeze caught me off guard. I should’ve clocked out and thought through the situation for 15-30 minutes to form an impromptu plan, then executed trade(s). My moderate risk tolerance coupled with my desire to take profits took over. When the stock partially cratered after a run up, I sold to retain gains. In the heat of the moment I thought the squeeze was squoze and it was going to plummet into the ground and I wasn’t being rational.
    • On 1x 4K call I would’ve made an additional 15-25K if I rolled up to a cheaper contract with some of my profits.
    • I know I missed out on significantly more with a 2nd call I had. Depending when I rolled it, it would likely have been an additional 25-50k in profits.
  • I talked about learning from your mistakes above. This mistake is branded into my brain due to the massive gains I missed out on by not rolling up. I’m furious with myself as I write this 1 week after the GME gamma squeeze, I’m a planner and I didn’t plan. If anything I own is significantly up ever again, I’m rolling up (or at least setting a stop loss). If necessary, I’ll roll up a trade multiple times to keep extracting profits.
  • Learn from my mistake so you don’t miss out on gains too. I strongly recommend rolling up when you are up big on a call / roll down when you are up big on a put. This enables you to take profits, stay in the game, and keep extracting more gains.
• If you trade a lot of options, talk to your broker about a discount. I was getting the standard $.50/contract with E-Trade, but I traded over 300 contracts a quarter and was able to get the fee reduced by over $.10 by just asking. I am now doing more spreads and condors, so once my volume gets very high, I’ll ask again.
• If you have a broker that isn’t great and you want to switch, leverage your current trading fees to the new broker. Tell them you’ll move over $### thousand if they beat your current options trading fee per contract.

Trade Planning & Position Management Tips

• As you gain experience, start monitoring what kind of Delta, OTM, DTE, etc. you are most profitable with. Use it in your future trades. You'll often see the tasty trade 30-45DTE .3 Delta strategy for selling.
• Before entering a trade, look at rough technicals like resistances and supports to consider your relevant strikes as well as entry/exit points. Look at upcoming earnings & dividend dates as well as stock/market news.
• Consider staggering strikes and expirations for safety and diversity; it’s nice to avoid assignment on 3 puts at once because you used the same strike for all 3.
• Incrementally enter positions on large rises/falls. One of my favor strategies is to buy dips after over reactions. By doing this slowly in large price "steps" it helps combat FOMO and helps you avoid getting slaughtered.
  • This will also help you avoid "chasing a falling knife". It also ties into having a plan.
  • I set alerts at several predetermined prices and I REALLY try not to enter new trades unless I hit my preset points. It makes me less emotional and usually more effective.
• Don't buy far expiration options with poor liquidity for shorter term plays. I bought 1x GME 1-year+ LEAPS call before the 2021 short squeeze. That was stupid, I should've bought 2-3x 60-120 day calls to have better liquidity. I also paper-handed it and missed out on my lambo.
• If selling options, consider rolling (for a credit) to avoid assignment when it makes sense / meets your plan. Rolling closer to expiration can be a valid strategy to get theta on your side. On the flip side, if the stock moons or plummets it could've been better to roll before it got crazy deep ITM. See rolling “rules” above.
• Covered Calls:
  • If a stock has a large movement range, I think it can be worthwhile to wait to open a CC after the last one is closed/expires. I have been more successful waiting for another opportunity vs. opening one immediately on the Monday after the second the last one expires.
  • Consider selling covered calls at all time highs/peaks. If you sell a CC and the stock dips significantly, and you think it’s temporary, you can buy to close your CC for a quick profit, then reopen it later.
  • If you own Meme stocks, selling covered calls runs the risk of missing out on large gains. On these stocks I typically only sell them further OTM than I normally would or not at all. If I do sell CC on a Meme stock I try to ensure I have 25-100 other shares that won’t be called away.

-Advanced Beginner-
Spreads

• Spreads (with 2 legs) are neat because they manipulate how delta and theta act. It caps your gains and losses, but you can profit with less stock movement. Try several spreads on a P/L calculator to see for yourself.
• Spreads usually require margin trading.
• Spreads allow you to define max losses (assuming you close before expiration day) and use less capital.
  • Experienced traders will open many spreads at identical/similar strikes to heavily profit off movement. Spreads can make you/lose you a lot of money if you are right.
  • For example. I could make a $200 premium off a $500 risk trade, max loss would be $300. This is much more effective capital utilization than a naked or cash secured put, however it does not have the same downside protection or “wheel” potential as a sold put. Higher risk, higher reward.
• Vertical Debit spreads: I think of these like mini calls/puts. I personally don’t use them unless calls are outrageously expensive or the break even is absurdly high, but there’s nothing wrong with them. A call debit spread will lower your breakeven and overall cost vs just a call. You can do clever things like making a positive theta call spread if you’re creative. I like doing this since I hate losing money to theta.
• Vertical Credit spreads:
  • Very good theta strategy to define downside/upside risks.
  • A put credit spread is bullish and allows you to bet on upward movement with less capital and defined losses.
  • A call credit spread is a bearish strategy that allows you to bet on downward movement. These are very cool since they allow you to sell calls without selling naked calls, which can ruin you financially. I see selling these as better than buying puts since it’s so much easier to be profitable; to be redundant, Θ rocks.
  • https://www.schwab.com/resource-centeinsights/content/reducing-risk-with-credit-spread-options-strategy-0
• I repeat this on purpose: Don't EVER leave short spreads open on expiration day, close them. If you don't close, they better be VERY far from the strike on a non-volatile stock. In after hours a stock can jump/dip below your strike and be exercised without the other leg to protect you. This can lead to massive, life ruining losses. This is not an exaggeration, google this and be scared. It happened to a fair number of people with TSLA. Video explanation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtVFj9nRRDo&t=315s
• Short Straddle:

Trading Mechanics, Taxes, Market Manipulation

• Learn about wash sale rules. They suck and are very easy to activate with options. This will eliminate your ability to write off losses. Over trading can easily cause wash sales. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/washsalerule.asp
• Short attacks:
  • Learn to recognize these sketchy attacks by hedges/firms. They manipulate the market, it’s been documented countless times. A common one is rapid short selling, which pushes the price down.
  • Short Ladder attacks:
    • https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/instablog/11442671-gerald-klein/3096735-anatomy-of-a-short-attack
    • Some people say short ladder attacks don't exist. I've seen some very strange stock nosedives off low volume, so I tend to think they do.
  • If you plan well enough and the market doesn’t give up on the stock you may be able to use it as a great opportunity to buy the dip.
• Cramer explains how he intentionally manipulated the market when he ran a hedge fund years ago. Multiple links to the video are below since this video gets pulled often, Cramer / The street never wanted this to go public.
  • Reuters article: https://www.reuters.com/article/cramer-interview-idUKN2036292620070320
  • httpss://youtu.be/r07Gg92YjOI
  • https://youtu.be/VMuEis3byY4
  • https://youtu.be/JEzsfPmh894
  • https://youtu.be/QFfjX8dW-QQ
  • Due to this video I don’t fully trust Cramer. His show can give you stock ideas to buy (or inverse), but you never know where his true loyalties lie.
• Plan for taxes if you are up big. You may need to over withhold or contribute to taxes quarterly depending on your situation. https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc306

-Intermediate / Advanced Strategies (work in progress)-
You’ll notice many of these strategies inverse one another.
Options Strategy Finder
This website is great for learning about new strategies, you’ll see many links to it below.
https://www.theoptionsguide.com/option-trading-strategies.aspx
Short Strangle / Straddle

• Both of these strategies profit from little price movement. I recommend using a P/L calculator to determine BE, profit, etc.
• A straddle sells (or buys) two options at the same expiry and strike.
• A strangle sells (or buys) two options at same expiry with different strikes.
• Both these strategies involved selling a Call and a Put for a credit. Straddle uses ATM legs, strangle uses OTM legs.
• Limited max profits and unlimited risk. Due to the unlimited risk, I am not a fan. However, many people like these a lot.
• https://www.theoptionsguide.com/short-strangle.aspx
• https://www.theoptionsguide.com/short-straddle.aspx

Iron Condor and Iron Butterflies

• These strategies profit from neutral or mostly neutral stock movement. They receive a credit to open and benefit from theta decay. If your stock is range bound, these may be a good choice.
• These are both 4 "legged" trades, so you will have 4 trading fees to enter or exit the trade. A lower cost or zero cost broker shines here. However, “bad” free brokers will give you poor fills, which may not be worth the discount.
• Condors and butterflies have "wings" which are your purchased puts and calls. The wider the wing the higher the max profit/risk. The condor body can be riskier and skinny with a narrow high profit range or wider for a much greater chance of success with lower payout.
• An iron condor is built by combining a put credit spread and a call credit spread with the same expiry.
• An iron condor can be thought of as a modified short strangle with limited risk, and therefore a bit less profit. I prefer defined limited risk.
• The butterfly is similar except instead of a plateau it has a sharp peak. My personal mental note is that a condor looks more like a strangle with wings, while a butterfly looks like a straddle with wings.
• Pay attention to earnings dates when you open these, I have forgotten to check before and it led to bad trades.
• https://www.theoptionsguide.com/iron-condor.aspx
• https://www.theoptionsguide.com/iron-butterfly.aspx

Long Condor (Debit Call Condor)

• The debit version of an Iron Condor. You expect the price to stay inside your defined range. This strategy profits from neutral or mostly neutral stock movement. I’ve never tried this, Iron Condors make more sense to me.
• Limited risk / limited reward.
• https://www.theoptionsguide.com/condor.aspx

Short Condor (Credit Call Condor)

• Inverse of an Iron Condor. You expect the price to go OUTSIDE your defined range. These are useful when you expect significant price movement. Credit to open.
• Limited risk / limited reward.
• Can be harder to set up. I want to try these, haven’t yet.
• https://www.theoptionsguide.com/short-condor.aspx

Reverse Iron Condor

• Inverse of an Iron Condor. You expect the price to go OUTSIDE your defined range. These are useful when you expect significant price movement. Debit to open.
• Limited risk / limited reward.
• https://www.theoptionsguide.com/reverse-iron-condor.aspx

LEAPs

• LEAP Options are options that are long term with many DTE, often over a year until expiration. LEAP calls are great for long term growth plays (downtrends with LEAP puts) or simply when you really like a company and can't afford 100 shares. LEAPs (or any "longer term" option) enables you to sell a PMCC or PMCP (below)

PMCC / PMCP

• PMCC or PMCP are poor man's covered call (or poor man's covered puts). They are diagonal options often used with purchased LEAPs. You sell a shorter DTE call/put with a further OTM strike than your purchased call/put. For PMCC/PMCPs it is often recommended to recoup your extrinsic value as soon as possible, some recommend with your first call CC or put sale, to ensure you are positive if the option is assigned early. These have a lot of moving parts and strategies. If you buy a barely ITM call/put and sell a nearby strike call/put you run the risk of the purchased option getting "blown by" on large stock movement and ending up with a very negative losing trade. Keeping your purchased LEAP deeper ITM should protect you. Check your initial PMCC using an options calculation to make sure you don't screw up.
• I'm currently tinkering with these myself. So far I like .7-.9 delta call LEAPS with 30-45 DTE calls on my CC. The goal is to hold the LEAP long term, potentially until expiration, and constantly sell calls/puts on it that expire worthless. Typically the call/put is rolled up and out or down and out if it's going to be assigned, unless you don't want your LEAP anymore.
• Some people look at these many sold CC or puts as profits, I look at them as lowering my cost basis until it's zero (or even negative). I have a page in my notebook I write each CC on my NIO LEAP (I Meme stock sometimes). I find it satisfying to slowly see the cost of the original option disappear. When I originally wrote this I had ~2 years left on it and it's 9-10% paid for; that doesn't even count the actual gains the LEAP has.
• TT states this is considered an IV play, which I partially agree with. You want to buy these during low IV times since an IV drop will hurt your LEAP value. I look at them more as a way to sell calls/puts on a high IV company with a lot of price movement and potential upside/downside.

Advanced Orders

• Guide to several order types: https://us.etrade.com/knowledge/events/webinars/order-types-from-basic-to-advanced-07162019
• One Triggers Other (OTO):
  • Good brokers will allow you to set these up, some will require a desktop to do it. This lets you link one action to another. In programming think of it like an if-then. You’ll tie a buy/sell to another buy/sell
  • Setting trailing stops on options is very chaotic since their price movement can be drastic due to volatility. I prefer to set my trailing stop to a stock.
  • What I like to do is set a trailing stop on a stock (or just link it to a stock price drop) and have it sell 1 share I own. Then it immediately executes a market order to sell my call. I’ve had good luck doing this with incredibly volatile plays were stop losses aren’t effective. I’ll often have an order saved and ready saved for when a strong run up starts. When my price alerts start blowing up my phone, I’ll immediately hit execute to turn it on.

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Disclaimer:
I’m not a financial adviser, I'm actually an engineer. I’m not telling you to invest in a specific stock/option or even use a specific strategy. I’ve outlined and more extensively elaborated on what I personally like. You should test several strategies and find what works best for you.
I'm just a guy who trades (mainly options) part-time for financial gain and fun. I don't claim to be some investing savant.

Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across.
Sun Tzu, Art of War
Everything was for tomorrow, but tomorrow never came. The present was only a bridge and on this bridge they are still groaning, as the world groans, and not one idiot ever thinks of blowing up the bridge.
Henry Miller, Tropic of Capricorn
I was wrong! Blow the bridge! Blow the fucking bridge!
Tugg Speedman, Tropic Thunder
Hello again GME Gang! It’s been a while since I last ranted at you, but I know we’ve been in some very good hands here at WSB with all the great DD folks have posted over the past few weeks. So no need for CPT Hubbard to go for 11 again on the Thumbscroll Dial (until today, that is). I’ve enjoyed a lot of these posts very much, so thank you on behalf of myself and the attention-deficient Rocket Children for continuing to deliver that 100% Chaff-Free GME-grade Wheat at such a feverish clip.
Now, I am going to get to Hong Kong’s Lamest Outlaw and his disconcertingly vacant eyes here shortly. But first I want to take you on a journey back to Christmas Eve, in the year of our lord 2020—a heady time in all our lives. We were all so young and innocent then, weren’t we? Fresh off the run up to 22. Blissfully oblivious that we were living in the last moments where the question What is The War of 1812? was the only acceptable Jeopardy question for the answer: The Last Time the Goddamn U.S. Capitol Was Stormed. This was also before we all became irresponsibly overleveraged in Cathie Wood’s Ornamental Gourds ETF. It was a wondrous, confusing time.
But before we get too off topic, let’s all hop in my 1985 DeLorean (purchased with proceeds from my Jan 15 calls – thanks RC!), fire up the ol’ Flux Capacitor, and get that shit to 88 because something happened that evening that is Worth Pondering—particularly in light of recent events. And just as a friendly reminder: even though you’re going back in time in a DeLorean, no one here has to deviate funds away from GME shares to Save the Clock Tower and you are under no obligation to fulfill a scenario where you wind up making out with your Mom (unless your Mom is Cathie Wood like mine—in which case maybe just some quick over-the-clothes stuff).
On the Subject of How It Once ‘Twas The Night Before Christmas
So what in the holy fuck happened on the night before Christmas, Captain? Well, while all you Gentiles were sleeping soundly after lying to your children about benign home intruders and before gorging yourself on the teat of late-stage capitalism, me and the rest of the Chosen People were up late eating Chinese food and thinking about tendies (self-hating Jew Joke! Ba-zing!). But then: when out on the electric twitter machine there arose such a clatter, I sprang to my phone to see what was the matter. And what to my wondering eyes did appear, a mysterious tweet from a Rich-Ass Viking who had a lot of fucking interesting things to say about this whole GME situation that’s what.
This tweet, buried as a reply to a tweet sent by Mr. Rod Alzmann (@RodAlzmann or u/Uberkikz11), simply said: “Merry Christmas. Shhh.” But it included this screen shot:
[**Image Deleted Due to the Mods - check the link below where someone transcribed it - I'll try to add later**]
Now, this tweet to Rod, sent late at night and likely after a strong Mead or three, was very promptly deleted. But your intrepid cub reporter saw this here tweet that night with his own two eyes—seeing as I am a degenerate GME addict and devoted follower of Mr. Rod Alzmann (Hi Rod!). And I took screenshots, of course, like any responsible records custodian might. And so did the dude who wrote a somewhat-overlooked WSB post on this, which included the most pertinent text of the message if you are having trouble reading it here:
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kk0omp/christmas_miracle_gamergate_2020_gme_shorts/
Now, what are we to make of this? At the time, I thought it was very interesting. But I did not give it too much attention seeing as how the internet is overcrowded with anonymous weirdos claiming to know more than they do about all sorts of subjects (and now I feel your judging eyes…). Also, there was some very good commentary in that WSB post from some sharp folks about the screenshot author’s questionable use of the shorthand PE/IB—given that private equity and investment banks wouldn’t apparently be involved in a behind-the-scenes transaction with the short funds like what was being discussed there (don’t ask me, I just string together silly words here). But maybe you poke around his Twitter a bit and see for yourself.
Still, plausibility assessments based on preferred nomenclature aside, it seemed to me that some version of that conversation had to be taking place behind the scenes in a situation like this—given the batshit insane short interest, the funds supposedly involved, and the rapid rise in SP coinciding with RC’s share accumulation, December 21st amended 13D filing, and new status as a GME Insider and Board member (just love saying all that in a row, don’t you?).
So the Viking’s screenshot tweet, and the very likely possibility that shorts are in so deep that they’re attempting to negotiate peace with large shareholders behind the scenes, stuck in my tiny little baby brain as a pretty plausible set of scenarios. And from the look of it, it seems like some funds were at least willing to discuss offering these shorts a Golden Bridge away from Certain Fucking Destruction on the open market. And if the words on the screenshot are at all aligned with reality, these short funds have no good options.
Yet it seems like they are still playing hardball to negotiate the carat on this generous bridge offer they’re getting. Why? Maybe they’ve been getting high on their own supply for so long and they don’t know how to see this situation for what it is. Who knows? Maybe there is no Ryan Cohen and we’re all living in a simulation. But if the recent low-rent anti-GME articles and market manipulation efforts we’re seeing are any indication, these overleveraged short fuckers seem to think they’re going to be able to spin out of this hold and drive the SP back down to even smaller peanuts than it’s at now by sheer force of will (and some deployment of well-honed tricks of the trade amirite?) to emerge unscathed. Or even victorious? I dunno—it’s their delusional fantasy sequence.
But do you know what this scenario reminds me of? And this is just coming to me so please bear with me as I’m not showing this to my editor before we print (I haven’t seen this movie in ages – don’t know what made me think of this!). Fuck it, I’m just gonna start riffing here. The shorts trying to thread this needle, against all odds and logic and common sense, reminds me of that hilarious scene in Dumb and Dumber where haplessly delusional Jim Carrey thinks he has a chance with Mary Samsonite Swanson. But the scene is funny because he really doesn’t. Have any chance. At all.
Now, I know this is a 1990s movie originally released on VHS that we haven’t seen it or even seen it referenced in ages. But now that you’re thinking of it again after all this time, doesn’t it remind you of this too? I know, I get it: You’d have to have fucking peanuts for brains for it not to.
(https://twitter.com/ryancohen/status/1350877969816956934?s=20)
On the Subject of the Continued Internet Bumbling of Mr. Justin Dopierala
Now that screenshot came to mind this past week when something kind of weird happened while we were all enjoying our quick rocket ship ride. And yes, we are briefly going to talk again about Seeking Alpha’s second finest pro-GME author (always been more of a Dmitriy man myself) and recurring CPT Hubbard character, Justin Dopierala (and no, Angela, I do not want to have like 10,000 of his babies).
Last Thursday, after we were all virtually high-fiving one another and counting our future Lambos, Mr. Justin Dopierala, head of Domo Capital and longstanding uber-bull GME shareholder and author at Seeking Alpha (last seen arguing pithily with our own Rod Alzmann about the conservative nature of Rod’s holiday earnings projections. Hi again Rod!), made it known that he sold all of Domo Capital’s 500,000 shares for around $42.50—at the very top of the run up last Thursday morning.
Now, Domo Capital’s business decisions are none of my goddamn business. And there are plenty of market opportunities right now. Shit, I hear there is even a new Cathie Wood Gourd ETF coming online soon that people are really excited about and that I’m sure Justin’s clients would find intriguing. But Domo’s decision to sell seemed curious given a few things: (1) on Wednesday, when the rocket is mid-flight, he got a twitter follow from Gabe Plotkin, head of Melvin Capital, which he promptly tweeted about with a “get a load of this fuckin’ guy” vibe (oh the sweet, intoxicating arrogance of tendie victory, I too love it so); (2) he had also tweeted that day comparing GME’s rise to Apron’s short squeeze that lasted 4 days—where he also stressed to his followers that Apron had a much lower SI than GME; and (3) he then promptly deleted all of these tweets and almost everything else GME-related on Thursday after apparently introducing 500,000 shares of liquidity into the height of a stressed market up and through the Thursday reversal and down into his own personal tendie town.
Now, after seeing all this, I mouthed off a bit to Justin on the electric twitter machine because that’s kind of my thing. And if you are familiar with my prior ramblings, you know that he and I go way back. In response, Justin talked a bit of shit about your intrepid cub reporter here in a comment on Dimitry Kozin’s October 21, 2020 article about a possible sony revenue share deal or something, the comment section of which has become the preferred SA water cooler over there. (And I can’t link that because Thems The Rulez). And Justin hurt my little feelings a bit with his very sharp denial. And by all means have at it over there to check out his comment about why he sold if you give a shit. That is if Justin hasn’t deleted it yet. Free country and all.
But to summarize, on the subject of treacherous coordination with Melvin Capital, Justin said he would not could not in a boat and he would not could not with a goat. And I for one believe him. And do you know why? Because even though Justin seems like a very smart guy in some ways, he’s also a well-known internet bumbler who blurts out things to his internet friends that a person with better self-control would keep to themselves. And so I do not think he is capable of pulling that off or keeping a secret like that. Also: he said he didn’t so I am more than willing to give someone the benefit of any doubt in that area and you should too. I think we keep Hanlon’s razor firmly in mind here about never attributing to malice that which is explained by stupidity. That is unless, of course, you’re Andrew Left and you’re actually trying to convince people that you didn’t realize there was a US presidential inauguration planned for the same time you announced your Super Important TeeVee Yammerfest ‘21 about GME not being a good candidate for an imminent short squeeze no way no how not if my name isn’t Andrew Left short seller expert extraordinaire and Hong Kong’s Most Misunderstood Ethically-Minded Businessman. You can ascribe the fuck out of malice to that one.
No, even though I really have no idea, I think the most likely thing that happened there was that Gabe Plotkin, Master of the Universe, Head of Melvin Capital, and Acolyte of Perennial Most Ethical Business Man MVP candidate, Steven Cohen—got into Justin’s head when Plotkin followed him on twitter during the 57% (at one point 94%) day last Wednesday and then Justin got a bit chippy about it.
And this is the real reason I’m bringing this up.
Because I honestly care very little about the Nervous Investing Habits of the Wisconsin hedge fund voted most likely to prompt a Mr. Roboto reference. No: I think that Gabe Plotkin sent a message with that follow. Without even ever having to say it directly. And I think that after GME’s huge run and getting a little overexcited while working the twitter machine, Justin maybe had a chance to relax with a warm glass of milk that night and reflect on that message. Which I believe was: I’m watching you, motherfucker. And the only reason I’m paying any attention to some shitstain Wisconsin pseudo-fund on a day like today when I am getting my ass fucking torched is because I want you to know that if this GME shit blows up on me, I’m going to fuck your ass up. I will remember the name Domo Capital forevermore. And when you least expect me, I’ll be there. Now: your move, motherfucker.
And once I realized what might have happened there, that made me feel kinda bad for Justin if he felt that way. Definitely a puss move because fuck you Plotkin I drink your fucking milkshake, right? But bad because that’s a mean message for a business colleague to send, Gabriel. Shame on you if that's how you roll like a big New York bully and scaring our poor Justin like that. And if you just wanted to follow him to shoot the shit or swap listicles and Star Wars Prequel memes with a respected contemporary—even in the very midst of getting fucking annihilated while short GME—well Justin has a totally different account for that and he’s not allowed to access it during work hours.
On The Likelihood That The Most Heavily Shorted Stock in History Is Not Being Subject to Continued Market Manipulation When A Steve Cohen Acolyte Is Losing His Fucking Shirt
Have you heard about Steve Fucking Cohen? The guy who looks like he’s tip top of the list of the premier Hollywood casting agency’s rolodex for Saddest Dipshit Still At the Strip Club After Everyone Else Has Already Gone Home? I’m sorry, that’s mean and my mother told me to always be kind to the truly hideous looking because they’re probably still beautiful on the inside (spoiler alert: he’s not!).
Get a load of this guy:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-01-02/why-sac-capitals-steven-cohen-isnt-in-jail
https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-09-02/controversial-hedge-fund-billionaire-steven-cohen-takes-on-hollywood
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/steven-a-cohen-among-the-million-dollar-donors-to-trump-inauguration-2017-04-19
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/steve-cohen-trump
https://nypost.com/2015/06/17/billionaire-steve-cohen-bros-out-with-guy-fieri/
Are you back? I’ve missed you. That was scary, wasn’t it? But allow me to TL/DR all that for you who decided to avoid all that unpleasantness: the dude just has all this bad luck and keeps finding himself into these really awkward situations where someone could potentially question his commitment to ethical business and life practices as well as adherence to the laws of the United States and it’s just not fair and nothing’s fair and Nice Guy Steve Cohen Is The Victim Here So Just Stop Right There Mister I See What You’re Doing. He's also bros with Guy Fieri. Cool.
But why am I talking about a guy who would so clearly pass Billy Madison’s Final Question about Business Ethics without even breaking a sweat?
Because Steve Cohen once had a young Ace Protegee that he loved very much. With the name of an Archangel, so tender and pure. And one day this young man decided he wanted to Prove Himself and Leave Steve’s Nest. And thus was born Melvin Capital, seeded financially by Steve Cohen but named after famed Crooner Melvin H. Tormé, which Gabe’s esteemed mentor Steve would play in his office, over and over, all those years ago.
Now let’s fast forward a bit because I’m boring myself with all that fucking Cohen reading (the bad Cohen—don’t you dare get anyone confused here). As I was saying: Gabe Plotkin, head of Melvin Capital, has by all accounts gotten himself into a bit of a pickle here being so deeply short GME. Lots of people have analyzed and overanalyzed it, and I’m not going to do it again here; that dead horse is well and truly beaten. But to bottom line it: we’re all just staring down what is essentially an unprecedented math problem that will, at some point, resolve itself. And if it revolves itself in favor of the Good Guys, then the Bad Guys will lose a Fuck-ton of Money. That’s your money block quote, WSJ, so fuck off and stop calling me.
Now: picture yourself as a Steve Cohen acolyte that just bought a $44M Miami Compound and who cannot stop talking about how co-owning the Charlotte Hornets is worth it just for the courtsides alone bro once basketball is a thing again and so what if Michael Jordan keeps calling him Gary it’s close enough. Are you feeling the most financially secure that you have ever felt in your young rich life right about now? Or might you be a wee bit worried that you’ve pursued an investment thesis so reckless, so irrationally and intentionally destructive of equity, that even Melvin H. Tormé himself must be rolling in his fucking grave that you would ever dare put at risk your ability to continue being Michael Jordan’s Gary?
And so here is when I again link my good buddy Jim Cramer’s Great Unveiling of the Tactics Deployed by Short Sellers hoping to change the narrative and construct a “new truth” to suppress the SP in the face of, oh, let’s just say: a very promising turnaround story in a high-growth industry by an e-Commerce Canadian Genius who does not fuck around and who knows what he’s fucking doing and aims to sell more and better video games experiences to crackhead video gamers and there’s a million things he wants to do but just you wait, just you wait.
Is this plot that hard to follow?
And I’ll also say this: I know fuck-all about monitoring order flows or how funds continue to create synthetic shares to short shit into oblivion. But I’m just stepping back and thinking of the broader narrative and tactics on this. Spit-balling here again—bear with me. Now, if you were massively short a security while paying out your ass in borrowing fees for the privilege of entering the most crowded short trade in the market and you’re now opposite a massive business turnaround story, Ryan Cohen, numerous institutions, funds, retail whales, Norwegian HNW Freemason Consortiums, and the energy behind the Finest Rocket Children Ever to Grace Planet Fucking Earth—and you’re taking it in the ass week after week here—Do you then play this straight? Do you set aside all of these illegal and deceptive short tactics Jim Cramer candidly outlines in that video even though they’re impossible to enforce and are in fact not enforced? That Jim basically says you’d be professionally negligent if you were short and didn’t do this shit because fuck it whosgonnastopyou? And now you fucked up and that steamroller is barreling down upon you and there are all these things you could theoretically do try to get yourself out of this jam if you were That Kind of Person? Do you set this all aside and, at least in Jim’s view, tie one hand behind your precious ethical back? On the most heavily shorted stock off all time where you are bleeding Real Life Big-Boy Money? Just buying and selling you know, just a job, honest living, nothing much to it, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, can't get too carried away with it.
Or is it something a little bit fucking different than that?
I don’t know. I’m not in the industry myself. And I would never accuse anyone of doing anything so clearly contrary to the values upon which their professional career as Master of the Universe was built. So Gabe: chill. Don’t follow me or something on twitter man, since for all I know that’s Plotkinese for I Hope You Don’t Mind Sleeping With This Severed Horse Head in Your Bed Motherfucker. It’s just money, dude. You seem pretty well taken care of. But man would I be sweating if I were short right now staring down the barrel of your new neighbor Ryan Cohen’s whims and patience and polite Canadian manners and ambiguous emojis that we all lose our shit for. I mean, fuck man: are you ok? Don’t forget to exercise and eat well during all this. Maybe switch to green tea or something. And remember: you’ll always—always—be Michael Jordan’s Gary.
But here is where we return to our good friend Andrew Left from Citron Research.
Do you remember the excitement you felt this past weekend? I’ve never seen WSB so jacked. People were coming out hot on Tuesday—an uptick day! The new phone book’s here! The new phone book's here! What luck to be free of Gary’s tomfoolery for one fine day. And then GME spiked right away—reaching a high of over $45 that morning.
But then something happened. We all know what it was. But here is where any SEC lookie-loos need to close those Pornhub links and pay closer attention. Because in the moments before the Citron tweet that morning about Andy’s upcoming BuzzFeed Listicle call on Why GME is Scary Investment GRRRR, total short shares available dropped from 1.2M to 0. And a $300K put bet was placed on a weekly with a strike price well over 10% out of the money at the very moment that GME’s price was accelerating rapidly. (H/t u/FatAspirations). That’s some WSB-level shit right there.
And yet they pull it off! GME immediately shoots down nearly 30% intraday, and eventually climbing abck up above 10%, making us all feel a little weird and like ungrateful millennial brats for feeling so shitty about a 10% day. But we all know what fucking happened, now don’t we?
So what can we say about ol’ Andy? Now, many of you know Andy as the dumbshit who shorted TSLA until he was ground into little bits of dumb dumb dust and made to look ever so foolish over and over again until he finally cried drunk uncle and flipped to being long TSLA and now he’s cool to you or whatever. Or you might know him as the guy who puts out really shoddy research that often, by pure happenstance, drives a new narrative to control the orderflow and SP on a WSB-beloved security like PLTR? You know the guy I’m talking about. Once in hot pursuit by Hong Kong fuzz, an International Man of Obviousness with a face that says: why yes, I will have another vodka tonic thankyouverymuch. That’s him.
Well, just like future call-back candidate for the role of Frightened Inmate #2, Mr. Steve Cohen, Andy is also but a Caveman—frightened and confused by your modern concepts of “ethics” and “rules.” No! No!—He’s a straight shooter! Devoted to rooting out obvious frauds, like Lukin Coffee and TSLA (Do not fuck with Elon or my Hot Mom’s ETF, Andy). And like the aspirations of Antoine Bugle Boy when he entered the blue jeans market, Andy saw an overcrowded short trade here based on an overly simplistic and obsolete short thesis about GME and said: “Me Too!” And as this thing is ripping to the stratosphere, Andy starts ringing his dumb dumb twitter bell and saying hear ye, hear ye—Inauguration Day and time it shall be for all my Big Brain thoughts about GME!
Nothing weird about that. No sir.
So Andy Citron or whatever the fuck his name is will be putting out some dumbshit video or something today in what seems to be a pretty clear attempt to scare my poor Rocket Children and get those pesky computers to high frequency this shit to drive the SP down to more acceptable loss levels (cause let’s be honest: they’re still taking a fucking bath here) for Mel Tormé’s namesake hedgefund and all the other cretins that are dug into short position here. And they’re gonna try to scare ya’ with the color red! And they know that no one here likes the color red.
But do see what’s going on here and who we’re dealing with. This really ain’t rocket science, Rocket Children. The dude actually tried to claim he forgot about the Inauguration. In 2021. He has not been in a coma, to the best of my knowledge. But you do look a little bleary eyed, Andy. Must have been all that staying up super late working on those last few bullet points to fill out the powerpoint on that GME listicle of yours, eh sport?
Conclusion: On the Subject of Patience and The Arc of The Universe Bending Toward Ryan Fucking Cohen
In my youth there was a period of time where I went out on boats that would drop crates into the waters of the Arctic. Bundled inside them were raw pieces of meat. In the coming days the boats would head back out to the frigid seas, hook the floats bobbing upon the waters, and pull the crates up. Packed inside would be many crabs. They were so delicious & made a good price at market. The difference between the crate that was empty and the create full of bounty was a mystery even the great physicist Erwin Schrödinger pondered at much length.
But the hearty fishermen of my youth already knew the answer long ago. Why did the trap fill up? Time. In time, all traps fill. In time, all things pondered shall be revealed.
--The Fucking Viking, That’s Who
Now look, you all know I have a soft spot for Ryan Cohen. Hell, we all do. He’s a good dude. And the man has played this flawlessly so far. He really has. The fact that we are all sitting here with Ryan Cohen having successfully negotiated three seats on the Board—a bloodless coup as my man Rod Alzmann says—here in January? It’s amazing. His vision for GME is dialed-the-fuck in and extremely exciting. This misunderstood business is on the threshold of an exciting turnaround with Ryan Cohen at the helm. And though I was very much looking forward to the potential repercussions of a vote being called at the annual meeting and what that might mean for the short-term share price, this result is infinitely better. Whatever their motivations, that Board and George Sherman saw the writing on the wall here and accepted the Golden Bridge that Ryan offered them. And Ryan Cohen has done everything he’s set out to do here. And he’s clearly been having fun while doing it. Read up on the guy at some point if you haven’t–there’s lots of good DD out there on him, obviously. And while you’re reading and thinking about Ryan Cohen, think also about guys like Steve Cohen (no fucking relation) and Gabe Plotkin and Andy Left and how lucky we are that we get to roll with RC against that motley crew of fuckwads.
And do you know what? I’m guessing that RC, and maybe even the funds being discussed in that screenshot, have been very patient with Mr. Plotkin et al in recent weeks. You don’t go around bankrupting hedge funds willy nilly, you know--bad form and all that old chap. People tend to remember that. And guys like Steve Cohen and Gabe Plotkin seem like they play for keeps. So now you try to build them a Golden Bridge to cross—maybe not their preferred route of travel, but could be worse and all that, right guys? But for whatever reason it seems like the natural instinct here on the short side is fight over flight. And these short FUD tactics are getting increasingly ridiculous to help slow down the inevitable march toward the detonator right next to that bridge. So relax everyone! And let’s not fool ourselves: All those Masters of the Universes are well aware of the math problem they’re all facing here and they must have a vague grasp of the odds that this goes off in one direction over the other. And what that could mean for the size of their money pits and how many sports teams they can buy this year. Shit, I assume Steve Cohen is counseling his young acolyte about how many sads he himself felt deep down in his man heart on that fateful day in 2008 when he lost $250M on a short when Volkswagon squeezed to infinity—a sadness that he will continue to draw on when his agent finally finds him a role that calls for it.
But my point is: the longs here can afford to be patient and let this play out. When this thing moves, the Viking’s Schrödinger crabs will only be in one pot. And I’m guessing that pot is the one being held by the guy who is actually in total control here: Ryan Goddamn Cohen.
So enjoy the show today. If you’re anything like me, you’re feeling relaxed after gorging yourself on lucky space peanuts all week.(https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/news/10022/lucky-peanuts/)
And though these silly wabbits with their cumbersome FUD efforts can get a bit tiresome, I’m still very much enjoying this GME show at this point and almost do not want it to end—what with all these Sorkin-esque twists and turns and my Cohen Tweet Decorder Ring getting all this sweet action.
But just remember who Ryan Cohen is, what he cares about, and what, so far, he has told us he intends to do here. And then you might realize, as I have, that Ryan Cohen has had the Gray’s Sports Almanac here all along. This story has already been written. He’s already won. And Melvin Capital’s Schrödinger-ass crabs are dead as fuck. The only question now is: what causes that Golden Bridge to blow? I, for one, am content to wait on RC while counting my good fortune that I can continue to accumulate until whatever happens here happens. So pass the rocket peanuts.
It’s just money after all. Right Gabe?
TL/DR: Psst: a Mysterious Viking once told me about behind-the-scenes Golden Bridge negotiations that are likely taking place that give shorts no chance but the shorts seem to think they’re saying there’s a chance but there really is no chance; Gabe Plotkin, Steve Cohen and Andy Left are misunderstood Straight Shooters who probably answer typical interview questions about their own perceived weaknesses by saying “Sometimes I just care too much about doing the right thing”; and Ryan Cohen is the Goddamn Man so we can all relax and not worry so much about all this dumb short FUD bullshit, ok? OK. 🚀🚀🚀
**If you construe any of the above as investment advice without doing your own DD or at least Googling Ryan Cohen then you are a fucking idiot and may God have mercy on your soul. You too, Andy.

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• My Guide Showcase
  
• Achievement Showcase
  
• Community Awards Showcase
  
• Completionist Showcase
  

An additional showcase can be bought for almost every type of showcase.
   

New Points Shop Badge: Seasonal Badge

This badge can be bought for 1,000 points per level, to a maximum of 20 levels for a total of 20,000 points. Each level gives you 100 profile XP.
You can view your own progress here!

Winter Collection - 2020

The Winter Collection has brings 4 new avatar frames, 1 new mini-profile background and 1 new profile background.
   

Steam Awards 2020 Trading Card Badge

How to get Steam Awards 2020 Trading Cards:

• Every ~$10 USD spent on the Steam store earns you 1 card during checkout.
  
• Crafting other game badges will give 1 card per badge crafted during the sale.
  
• Voting in the 2020 Steam Awards will earn you 1 card per vote.
  
• Earn 1 card a day by going through your Discovery Queue. This resets each day @ 10AM PST.
  
• Trading with users or buying them on the Community Market
  

Steam Awards Trading Card Badge FAQ

Q: Where can I see a full list of Emoticons and Backgrounds for the badge?
A: You can either look on the SteamCardExchange page for the badge or browse The Steam Awards 2020 category on the Community Market
Q: Can I craft the 2020 Steam Awards Trading Cards into a badge after the sale is over?
A: The Steam Awards badge will remain craftable until the end of the sale. If after the sale has ended you have enough expired trading cards to craft the badge, you can do so at anytime.
   

Vote amongst the final nominees in the 2020 Steam Awards!

For each category you vote in you will receive 1 Steam Awards Trading Card.
The nominees are as follows:
Game of the Year:

• Red Dead Redemption 2
  
• Hades
  
• DOOM Eternal
  
• Fall Guys: Ultimate Knockout
  
• DEATH STRANDING
  

VR Game of the Year:

• Half-Life: Alyx
  
• Phasmophobia
  
• The Room VR: A Dark Matter
  
• Thief Simulator VR
  
• STAR WARS™: Squadrons
  

Labour of Love:

• Counter-Strike: Global Offensive
  
• Among Us
  
• Terraria
  
• The Witcher® 3: Wild Hunt
  
• No Man's Sky
  

Better With Friends:

• Fall Guys: Ultimate Knockout
  
• Sea of Thieves
  
• Borderlands 3
  
• Deep Rock Galactic
  
• Risk of Rain 2
  

Most Innovative Gameplay:

• DEATH STRANDING
  
• Control Ultimate Edition
  
• Superliminal
  
• Noita
  
• Teardown
  

Outstanding Story Rich Game:

• Red Dead Redemption 2
  
• Detroit: Become Human
  
• Mafia: Definitive Edition
  
• Metro Exodus
  
• Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition
  

Best Game You Suck At:

• Apex Legends™
  
• Crusader Kings III
  
• Ghostrunner
  
• EA SPORTS™ FIFA 21
  
• GTFO
  

Outstanding Visual Style:

• Ori and the Will of the Wisps
  
• Battlefield V
  
• There Is No Game: Jam Edition 2015
  
• Marvel's Avengers
  
• Black Mesa
  

Best Soundtrack:

• DOOM Eternal
  
• Halo: The Master Chief Collection
  
• Helltaker
  
• Need for Speed™ Heat
  
• Persona 4 Golden
  

Sit Back and Relax:

• The Sims™ 4
  
• Microsoft Flight Simulator
  
• Satisfactory
  
• Untitled Goose Game
  
• Factorio
  

The Steam Awards FAQ

Q: How much time do I have on me to vote?
A: Voting stops on 2021 January 3rd @ 9AM PST.
Q: When will the winners be announced?
A: All winners will be announced here on 2021 January 3rd @ 10AM PST.
Q: Can I make changes to my votes?
A: Yes, simply click on the Change Vote button on any other game to change your vote.
   

The Points Shop FAQ

Q: How do I gain points?
A: Specific amounts are different for every currency, but give or take a few points: every $1 USD you spend on the Steam Store will give you 100 points to use in The Points Shop, this includes gifts and any other type of purchase on the Steam Store.
Q: When does The Points Shop close?
A: The Points Shop isn't closing!
Q: Will items I buy expire?
A: No! Everything except for the Seasonal Profile is yours to permanently keep.
Q: Why do I have points from before?
A: All purchases you've made after the 2020 Steam Lunar New Year Sale ended(2020 January 27th at 10AM PST) has been tallied up and added to your account. For more information you can view your points history.
As the points history page points out: you may also have received points in the shop because you received an award on a community post or a review.
Q: Will new things be added to The Points Shop?
A: Yes, new things that you can buy from The Points Shop will be added over time, exactly when we do not know.
Q: Can I sell or trade items I buy from The Points Shop?
A: No, any items you buy from The Points Shop are bound to your account and cannot be traded, sold or otherwise transferred.
Q: What happens to my Steam Points when I refund a game?
A: When you refund a game, the points you gained from that purchase will be deducted from your account. If that causes your Points balance to go negative your most recent items and Community Awards you've used points for will be removed until your balance is no longer negative.
Full explanation and FAQ here: https://store.steampowered.com/points/howitworks
   

Subreddit Meta

The following is mostly for individual posts, not comments in this thread.

• Please don't submit low-effort posts, or old/generic memes.
• General questions and conversations about the 2020 Steam Winter Sale should only be posted here. We will be removing posts that the moderators deem fit for the megathread.
• All individual threads about "should I buy this game" or other low-effort game advice posts will be removed and be redirected to this thread.
• If you are not posting something unique, please do not post. There are a multitude of subreddits that would rather have your dank memes, or generic GabeN posts.
• Yes, Steam's server are under high load and might cause glitches or go down. Please don't post about it.

   

Support Issues

We will maintain the support megathread as a sticky. If you have issues with Steam or a game, post them there.
   

Beware of scams!

During the sale(...and literally any other time) be vigilant of scams!
Want a tip on how to get wallet funds on Steam? Pay for it. There is no such thing as free wallet funds or free game codes. Never login to a 3rd party site if it asks for your password and authenticator code. If someone adds you as a friend and sends you a website or says they are from Steam/Valve or says you've been reported, they need to check your items, etc: block and report them, it is a scam. No Valve employee will ever speak to you directly through chat, they will only talk to you via a support ticket, and there's no such thing as a Steam Admin, and Volunteer Steam Moderators will not contact you about account issues.
Secure your account and educate yourself on scams!
Is your account hijacked? Read this.
If it sounds too good to be true... it's because it is.
   

Steam General Sale FAQ

Q: When does the sale end?
A: The 2020 Steam Winter Sale ends on 2021 January 5 @ 10AM PST. Click here to convert it to your time.
   
Q: Why are my downloads so slow?
A: There is severe load on Steams servers, both store and content servers. Just give it some time, and try again later. Also, don't forget to check the server status on the sidebar. If you're having these issues at the very start or very end of the sale it is par for the course as the store and product pages are transitioning over for the sale, and as the servers are being bombarded by loads and requests by users. Try to clear the download cache.
If you consistently have issues please post in the support thread or use this Steam Guide for information and as a troubleshooting tool.
   
Q: The store doesn't load, only my library works, images are broken, weird blue text, etc
A: The store not loading at the start and end of the sale is normal, and relatively slower load times is also normal, but if this is consistently happening try to clear the Steam browser cache and cookies.
If this doesn't work you can post in the support thread or use this Steam Guide for information and as a troubleshooting tool.
   
Q: I'm new to Steam! Where do I begin?
A: Welcome! Please read the Welcome to Steam page in our Wiki.
   
Q: Are the prices consistent throughout the sale?
A: Yes, sale prices will remain the same throughout the sale.
   
Q: Can I share games that I bought with family or friends?
A: Yes, you can do this through Steam Family Share. Keep in mind that games that you have bought are tied to your account. They cannot be transferred or exchanged between accounts.
You may also want to check out Steam Remote Play and Steam Remote Play Together.
   
Q: I can't gift a friend because of regional price differences, what do I do?
A: You can send your a friend a Digital Gift Card via Steam.
You can also gift games via a different, trusted and verified re-seller, like HumbleBundle.
Here is our full list of safe sites to buy Steam keys from.
   
Q: Can games be cheaper on other sites during the sale? What sites should I check?
A: Yes, games can be cheaper on other sites during the Steam Sale. Here is our list of safe sites to buy Steam keys from. There are many sites that sell Steam keys that practice in shady business, we recommend you only use the sites listed in that wiki page. For more information regarding key re-sellers please read this wiki page.
   
Q: My Wallet/Gift Card code is damaged and I can't redeem it! What do I do?
A: If your Wallet/Gift Card code is damaged, or otherwise can't be redeemed you need to contact Steam Support with a picture of the card.
Please note: If your code is printed directly on a receipt Steam Support will not be able to assist you, you'll need to return to the store you purchased it from for help.
   
Q: I don't like the game I purchased** or **a game I purchased a few days ago is cheaper now, can I refund it?
A: Yes, you can refund games on Steam, even if you bought a game a few days ago and you wan't to re-purchase it during the sale to get it for less.
To refund a game you cannot have more than 2 hours of playtime in it, and you cannot have owned it for longer than 14 days.

• If you have played game for more than 2 hours, regardless of how long you've owned it, you are no longer within your right to receive a refund.
  
• If you have owned a game for more than 14 days, regardless of playtime, you are no longer within your right to receive a refund.
  

Please note: Approved refunds can take up to 7 days to appear in your account. If your refund hasn’t appeared after 7 days, please contact your bank directly and ask about pending funds on your account.
For more information on Steam Refunds: Steam Refund terms -- Common Refund Questions -- How To Request A Refund.
   

A few related Subreddits you might find useful:

/SteamDeals
/SteamFriend
/ShouldIBuyThisGame
/SteamTradingCards
/GameScreens
/SteamOS
/SteamGrid
/SteamController
/GameDeals
/TipOfMyJoyStick

Please read this entire post before you make a comment.

Enjoy the sale everyone!

EDIT: Thank you all for your responses so far. You guys have given me an avenue to view the world through a lens other than the one I grew up with, and have made me suspect that I may actually be dealing with some level of classical conditioning. I'll keep responding to comments, but I've been missing work to do so thus far, so I'll get back to the thread later.
Thank you all again for your help so far; I look forward to continuing this discussion.
You guys rock.
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Let me preface this by saying that I want my mind changed. I’m only twenty-two years old, and the idea that over half of my life could be spent living in an Orwellian dystopia is honestly terrifying.
I’d also like to say that I’m not trying to offend anyone with my beliefs or opinions, I’m simply looking for answers. If you can, take everything in this post as a whole and not as individual points, as it’s not so much the individual points that are bothering me but the idea of the individual points being interconnected to form a grand plan.
With that said, I’m going to present as much information as I can in as coherent a way as possible. I’m not an “expert” on these things. I’m no David Icke, so you can be sure that I’m going to leave out certain bits of information that could be relevant to my argument, so I apologize in advance if my arguments are only half baked.
Let me give you an idea of where I’m coming from.
Growing up, my Mom was - and still is - extremely deep in the conspiracy theory world; everything from reptilians to the Earth being hollow. As far as she’s concerned, COVID-19 is just another stage of the rollout of a massive agenda that’s going to end in the entirety of humankind being hooked up to Artificial Intelligence.
My Dad, on the other hand, is on the other side of the spectrum. If he can’t find it on the mainstream news, it hasn’t happened and probably doesn’t exist. There are a couple of exceptions to that rule, but by and large, he goes off of what the media says, particularly CBC, The Guardian, and Al-Jazeera English. He is extremely logical, and if it can’t be logically explained and requires there to be massive assumptions made, he doesn’t buy it.
As for the rest of the family, they largely follow my Mom’s side of the story. One of my half-brothers in particular is very deep in conspiracy theories. He thinks Q-Anon is a crock of shite, but has very strong beliefs about COVID being a sham and part of a plan to dehumanize people. Same with 9/11, smartphone rollout, social media, etc. It doesn't help that he's incredibly intelligent, and is VERY capable of defending his viewpoints. I don't bother discussing these things with him anymore because it always ends with me feeling more stressed out.
I’ve been stuck in the middle of these differing opinions for my whole life. Generally, my parents get along, but there were times where their differences devolved into an endless back and forth that had my eight-year-old self hiding under the bed thinking that divorce was imminent.
I’ll start by listing reasons that I can think of for a global agenda NOT existing, and then will go over reasons for why I think an agenda COULD exist.
AGAINST:

1. INFIGHTING:

Looking at the world today and all of human history as a whole, the idea of a group of people from all over the world pulling the strings of global affairs is kind of absurd. People don’t get along, so the thought of something massive like a covert global takeover going to plan without the whole thing collapsing because of infighting is almost inconceivable.

1. WHISTLEBLOWERS:

If there is a plan to take over the world and brainwash the population, why hasn’t it been completely exposed? David Icke says that the people who do the rolling out of the agenda are too far down the chain of command for them to have any idea of what’s happening. He uses the analogy of a spider web: the spider at the center of the web is pulling the strings, while all the other parts of the web simply communicate with one another without knowing that the orders being issued are coming from the spider at the center. Again, I don’t see how SOMEBODY hasn’t found out about it yet and decided to blow the whistle.

1. EDWARD SNOWDEN:

Edward Snowden has said in the past that he hasn’t been able to find any evidence for conspiracies like chemtrails or UFO black sites existing, and if I understand him correctly, he had access to the databases of the CIA, the NSA, the FBI, and the military, and he didn’t find anything. Now he did say that these conspiracies may exist, but if they did they would have to be hidden insanely well. That could be the case, but I feel like it’s starting to get into Occam’s razor territory.

1. MOTIVE:

I don’t see there is a motive for global domination. After all, what is there to truly be gained? Money? Power? Control? None of those seem like realistic motivators to want to enslave the entirety of humanity. All three of those things can be achieved right now without global domination. Additionally, none of those things exist in a vacuum, so if a world government controls all the wealth and the movements of every single person on the planet, what’s the point anymore? That said, I’m well aware that a good chunk of the people in positions of power are actually psychopaths, and perhaps for someone who has no regard for human life those three things are a big enough motivator.
FOR:

1. “COINCIDENCE”

With what’s happening in the world right now, it’s difficult for me to feel like nothing is going on behind the scenes and that it’s all just a “coincidence."
Surprisingly, many people aren’t aware of some of the things that go on behind closed doors and are only later made public.
Some of these things include the term “conspiracy theorist” being given negative connotations by the CIA as a means to counter and shut down discussion around the assassination of John F. Kennedy: https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/03/16/did-the-cia-invent-the-term-conspiracy-theory/
Or Operation Northwoods: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Northwoods
Or Operation Mockingbird: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mockingbird
Or Project MKUltra: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_MKUltra
Or heck, even Steller Wind, which is almost textbook Orwellian: https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2018/11/snowden-files-declaration-nsa-spying-case-confirming-authenticity-draft-inspector
Needless to say, I feel like the fact that some of these programs were even considered, let alone put into action raises a lot of red flags around the world’s government truly having the people’s best interests at heart. If a government is capable of killing or spying on its citizens for political reasons, what’s stopping them from doing far worse?
Outside of government specifically, what about all of the allegations regarding pedophilia? The number of powerful people that received donations and endorsements from Jeffery Epstein is staggering, and for what exactly? Nobody seems to know. Then there are the allegations that are being directed at people like Andrew Derschowitz and Prince Andrew. Watching the Prince’s interview with the BBC regarding the accusations being made by Virginia Roberts against him, coupled with how difficult he is being in regards to providing information regarding the case, makes me doubtless that she’s telling the truth. The Prince’s behavior reminds me of myself when I was trying to avoid getting in trouble with my parents.
Additionally, if Prince Andrew is implicated in pedophilia, that could mean that the rest of the Royal Family could be involved in shady business as well. There is the whole conspiracy around Princess Diana's death after all. It doesn’t take much looking to see all the pedophile rings that are being uncovered, including some that are masquerading as charitable organizations: https://www.cnn.com/2017/11/20/health/haiti-orphanages/index.html
https://www.refinery29.com/en-us/2019/06/235859/nxivm-leader-keith-raniere-guilty-sex-cult-all-charges
Then there’s the number of people in Hollywood that are being ratted out as sexual predators; Harvey Weinstein and Kevin Spacy are the main ones that come to mind, but there are certainly others. Some of the statements made by Elijah Wood are pretty damning: https://variety.com/2016/film/news/elijah-wood-pedophilia-hollywood-problem-1201781021/https://variety.com/2016/film/news/elijah-wood-pedophilia-hollywood-problem-
Then there are the blatant satanic undertones in the music industry. It’s not hard to find multiple music videos that are explicitly satanic. The one that immediately comes to mind is the video for “LA Devotee” by Panic at the Disco: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5dNcKTcnPA
Or the video for “Bon Appetit” by Katy Perry (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPI-mRFEIH0) which smacks of the “Spirit Cooking” dinners hosted by Marina Abramovic. She says she isn’t a Satanist, but I prefer to look at a person’s actions and not their words, and her art tells a different story.
If she is a Satanist, that makes me question why on earth she is so well connected with the rich and famous.
As a side note, Abramovic also took part in an art exhibition that was organized by Microsoft: https://newspunch.com/bill-gates-microsoft-cancel-marina-abramovic-campaign-after-people-flood-video-calling-her-out-satanist/
I feel that the claims that David Icke makes about there being a satanic cult pulling the strings from behind the scenes are only enforced by the content being produced by Hollywood and the music industry.
Moving onto the LGBTQ+ movement, I know I’m going to get crap for this but please try and be understanding. I have absolutely nothing against people who want to change their gender identity. I believe that a person has every right to do so and that they should be treated with general human decency and courtesy.
What I’m against is Sex Ed class being bumped down to kindergarten: https://www.king5.com/article/news/politics/state-politics/washington-state-sexual-education-bill-passes-senate/281-a5d8b98e-1487-4be5-b2fc-f638b4511230
Or little boys and girls being encouraged to wear clothing of the opposite sex: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8103957/boys-encouraged-explore-gender-dresses-australia-schools/
These are not issues that children should be getting exposed to. On average, a person’s brain doesn’t stop developing until they are age 25, so why on Earth do we think it’s a good idea to have children question their already extremely fragile self-identity? How can this NOT lead to kids becoming confused?
I’m going to say it again: I DO NOT THINK THAT A PERSON CHANGING THEIR SEXUAL IDENTITY IS SOMETHING THAT THEY SHOULD BE SHAMED AND OSTROCISED FOR. However, I do believe that the post-modernist relativism that is spreading around the world today like wildfire is only leading to destruction.
Camille Paglia was asked about her thoughts on the Transgender movement and she, a Gay woman herself, said that there is a pattern throughout history of transgender ‘mania’ being a precursor to societal collapse: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8BRdwgPChQ
This is not, as I understand it, because transgenderism itself causes societal collapse, but because a lack of strong principles and belief in ultimate truth in favor of relativism leads to people losing their sense of morality and right and wrong, which in turn leads to anarchy, and finally to collapse.
I believe the emphasis placed on sex is less the CAUSE of the world's issues, and more just another SYMPTOM of larger issues.
Suffice to say, I believe it is easy to see how teaching kids to question their gender identity at an absurdly young age could be used as a control mechanism later in life. If someone doesn’t even know who they are as a person, how on Earth can they take an objective look at their circumstances?
Next on the list we’ve got the “Vaccine’s cause Autism” debate, which has become so toxic it’s almost impossible to have a reasonable discussion around it, which is why I hate to bring it up but it is relevant to COVID-19 so I feel like I have to.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recently “debated” Andy Dershowitz on the safety of vaccines, though it was more of a discussion than a debate: https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/kennedy-jr-warns-parents-about-danger-of-using-largely-untested-covid-vaccines-on-kids
The video is quite long and there are a lot of points raised so I’m not going to get into them, but it seems that the majority of the points that RFKJ made are independently verifiable, such as vaccines not being tested against a true placebo, or how it is essentially impossible to sue a vaccine company for any form of injury caused to your child.
Then there’s the whole microchipping via vaccine thing which, while I haven’t seen any proof for, does seem possible as microchipping is becoming more and more commonplace, such as companies in Sweden having their employees microchipped as a sort of security pass or to replace credit cards: https://nypost.com/2019/07/14/swedish-people-are-getting-chip-implants-to-replace-cash-credit-cards/
It’s easy to see how microchipping could be used as a control mechanism. A chip that can track your location, your mood, your health, and then beam that information back to a private server, regardless of where your phone is.
It’s even easier to see how creating an autism epidemic could be used to control the population.
That leads rather nicely into COVID-19.
Firstly, I’d like to point out the amount of blatant censorship that has been going on. Moments after the previously mentioned “debate” was posted on Facebook, it was taken down. The same applies to a group of front line doctors who recently went to the senate and were censored: https://www.lifesitenews.com/opinion/censored-frontline-doctors-speak-out-we-want-to-help-people
It doesn’t make sense to me that the voices of credible people are silenced, simply because it goes against what the mainstream narrative is. Freedom of speech is a thing, isn’t it? It seems suspicious to me that the immediate response is not a reasoned argument, but censorship.
It also doesn’t make sense that Bill Gates, a college dropout, is given a larger platform than actual doctors who have gone through the schooling and know what they’re talking about. It seems like pure lunacy.
The thing that I think has me the most scared at the moment is this document by the company Onyx: https://onyxinc.ca/covid-19.html
It talks about an isolation facility that is being constructed to hold people who are suspected of having been exposed to COVID-19. It does say that where they will be transported depends on the results of an assessment, but the fact that it’s even being talked about is mind-boggling to me.
Yes, I believe COVID-19 exists, but I do not believe it is nearly as deadly as it has been made out to be, and I think that the actions that are being taken are over the top, to say the least.
The evidence for the efficacy of social distancing and masks also seems very spotty, so to make them mandatory in places like Calgary is shocking when they have the potential to do more harm to the people wearing them than good. While these do seem to be isolated incidents, people have died wearing masks, which I think calls their safety into question: https://nypost.com/2020/04/24/driver-crashes-car-after-passing-out-from-wearing-n95-mask/
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-two-chinese-boys-die-face-masks-gym-class-20200507-ruyinz7czjbqde3tprx647q3dm-story.html
Then there’s the amount of hypocrisy and pure silliness. The British Columbian CDC recommended the use of “Glory Holes” as a means to help prevent the spread of COVID-19 while having sex: https://www.hotnewhiphop.com/canada-cdc-suggests-glory-holes-for-safe-sex-during-coronavirus-news.114699.html
You’re telling me that a bunch of serious adults wrote that guideline?
Or what about the inconsistency in standards? It’s fine to go and protest the police, but not to protest lockdown measures: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jun/3/public-health-experts-support-george-floyd-protest/
There’s also Agenda 21, which has almost become a buzzword thanks to the map created for it that shows human living space relegated to tiny little squares of land across the US, reminiscent of Suzanne Collins’ “The Hunger Games”: https://americanpolicy.org/2017/10/04/agenda-21-agenda-2030-there-is-no-difference/
The last thing I’ll share is this video which my mother sent to me and prompted me to write this post as it kind of pushed me over the deep end: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=66XGOpMXCQE&app=desktop
Finally, reason #2 for there being a global conspiracy:
WHISTLEBLOWERS:
While there hasn’t been a mainstream exposure of a plan to take over the world by a group of extremely powerful people, there are plenty of people who claim to have worked for a variety of powerful organizations that say that something is most definitely going on, and what they are saying is simply censored because it goes against the government agenda. Are they credible? Some of them seem to be, but that’s neither here nor there.
CLOSING
To close, I would like to say that I’m sick and tired of being stuck in the middle. I’m sick of being stuck in this conspiratorial soup that has done nothing but stress me out and make me feel miserable. I want my mind changed, but I also don’t want to stick my head in the sand. I want hard evidence against these things.
I’m not looking for someone to tear apart each of these points individually; I’m looking for someone to tear apart the whole idea. I don’t want to have a debate on the efficacy of vaccines, I want to know that vaccines aren’t part of a larger plan. I want to know that the way things are being handled right now is down to human stupidity and has nothing to do with a great big “spider” at the center of the web that’s pulling the strings. Thinking about this stuff has made me suicidal in the past and I don’t want that to happen again.
I’d also like to note that I don’t consider the sources for this information not being mainstream as an argument against the premise of there being a cult controlling the world, as the whole point of the argument is that the mainstream media is complicit in brainwashing the public.
I’m going to say it one last time: I’m not looking for an argument against each point, I’m looking for an argument as to why the idea of a secret society orchestrating all of these different things is illogical. Whether what I’ve said here turns out to be true or false doesn’t bother me half as much as the idea that they’re all intrinsically linked.
I do want to reiterate that I’m not trying to offend or attack anyone’s viewpoint. I’m simply looking for answers and some semblance of closure.
Thanks in advance, and stay safe out there.
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EDIT: Thank you all for your responses so far. Your responses have given me an avenue to view the world through a lens other than the one I grew up with and have made me suspect that I may actually be dealing with some level of classical conditioning. I'll keep responding to to comments, but I've been missing work to do so thus far, so I'll get back to it later.
Thank you all again for your help so far; I look forward to continuing this discussion.
You guys rock.

Last year, I posted a thread that blew up (#23 highest post on entrepreneur of all time) that focused on why this sub sucks ass.
Top 7 reasons this sub is hot garbage
Since then, some things have changed and some have not. This sub is still a mess (the mods do their best, but there are too many shitposters), but the entrepreneurial landscape has significantly changed in the past 12 months. As the founder of a SaaS company, I'm here to offer more unfiltered advice on what you should be thinking about as you navigate your entrepreneurial journey.
Tip 1) This sub is (still) 90% trash.
It's primarily an echo chamber for people who all have the same problem as you -- they want to find a side hustle but aren't sure where to go. People who are successful aren't hanging out here and even if they are, they won't be giving up profitable ideas or strategies -- they are here to market to you.
Tip 2) If there was a segment of business that wasn't saturated in 2020, it sure as fuck will be in 2021.
There will be millions of people who will be looking to create businesses in 2021 as a result of lack of jobs and the American government's ineptitude. Use this to your advantage. What does this mean? Start taking B2B (business to business) opportunities more seriously. I'm talking lead generation, reputation management, marketing, etc. Any industry that will support the wave of new businesses that will be created in 2021 is something that you should give your attention to.
Tip 3) Lack of knowledge
So many of you want to dive into business with little to no background on business, economics, finance, marketing, product development, etc. To these people, I say "Fuck yes!" You'll learn as you go. Just make sure that you're not breaking copyright, patent, or trademark law as you venture boldly into uncharted waters.
Tip 4) Find a mentor
There are a ton of people online who are willing to offer you advice. If you want to move quickly while not making decisions that are going to devastate your odds of success, you need an entrepreneur who you can meet with a couple times a month to talk to over the phone/web. I'm talking an hour long meaningful conversation about what you've done and where you want to go. Random questions here and there on random message boards about isolated issues/questions are not going to steer you in the right direction.
Tip 5) The sooner you gain an appreciation for the importance of marketing and promotion, the better.
Sourcing customers is going to be 90% of your problem as a small business owner. Fuck products. Fuck innovation. Fuck your brand. You need to develop a strategy to drive traffic to your website and a strategy for pushing them through the purchasing process regardless of what you're selling. There are people on the internet selling literal excrement and doing well because they have a solid marketing plan in place (and no, i'm not affiliated with that business -- in fact, i think it's illegal to this biohazard through the mail).
Instead of worrying about what you're going to sell, worry about how you're going to sell.
Tip 6) Desperation is the spark. Hope is the fuel. Action is the oxygen.
Entrepreneurship is hard. In many ways, those who are desperate have a serious advantage over those who aren't. Those who are desperate are the people who are going to get out of their comfort zone because, in may cases, it is the path of least resistance (cold calling prospect, while uncomfortable, is less comfortable than losing your car or house). If you live a life of comfort, you're likely to take the path of least resistance, including searching for a fantasy business that will make money while not requiring you to bust your ass or get out of your comfort zone (hint: you won't find it and you'll go back to filling your time with sitcoms and Sunday night football)
Tip 7) No excuses
If you're desperate for money, whether it be for startup capital or to pay your bills, start fucking direct selling. Find a business in your town that provides a great service and ask them if they'll hire you on a commission only basis. eg. you get 20% of the revenue you bring in. You can do the same for software companies. Understand the product, phone prospective clients, and start fucking selling. Can it be uncomfortable at first? Absolutely. If you're hungry enough, you'll find that this is actually a path of least resistance. You'll build up sales skills that you can build a career or a business on and will fucking own life.
Tip 8) Pass it on (not only when you have success, but when you experience failure).
You'll have failures along the way. If you can share these lessons with others, you'll convert these failures into something that society benefits from.
Be public about your failures. Do this often enough and in the right places, and you'll find people reaching out to help you get out of the hole you've dug for yourself.
Tip 9) Most ideas suck ass. Tell us your idea so that we can confirm that it sucks ass so that you don't spend a dime on it.
I fell into this trap this past year. I thought I had a world changing idea. Without talking to any potential customers, I spent 3 90-hour weeks developing an MVP only to find out that essentially no one wanted the product.
We're not going to steal your idea. Not only because we don't have the time/money/motivation to execute it in light of the challenges that we face in our own lives and current plans, but, mostly likely, because its a bad idea.
A good business model may not lead to success, but a bad one will always lead to failure.
FUCKING VALIDATE YOUR IDEA BEFORE WRITING A SINGLE LINE OF CODE OR PUTTING 1 PENNY INTO MAKING IT A REALITY.
Bonus) Life isn't fair, but, eventually, most of us get what we deserve
If you are able-bodied and of sound mind, you're likely to eventually get what you deserve in terms of monetary attainment. You can see this as a hard pill to swallow or a source of motivation. Like everything in life, your perspective is everything.
Summary
Get out there and kick 2021's ass (and find a god damned mentor so that you don't burn your time, money, or sanity with a business idea/plan that will never work).
Good luck people of entrepreneur and remember, don't waste your time with dropshipping. It's saturated, low effort, low margin, and destine to fail even if every 10,000th redditor has (or claims to have) success.
Peace.
PS. If you want a mentor and you're serious, contact me. I'm a CPA, software developer and owner of a SaaS business. You're going to need to prove to me that you're serious. If you can, I'd happy to help you.
PS2. If you want a mentor, mention it in here. Maybe someone here can help you.
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Edit: If you guys have any tips for 2021, feel free to post them in the comments below.