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In the late 90's we had a similar Tech/Digital stock rally (this is not nearly as bad though, so chill, companies are actually destroying the estimates and profits are strong).
Back then it was web page development and internet providers, now it's mainly electric vehicles and some parts of tech.
“St0nks” were only going up, up and up. You heard things like - Dude, its a new economy, this is the new normal. This is the future, you can't use old models to define value. Die all boomers and burn traditional stocks (ok I might be exaggerating on this one).
Anyway, I was a finance major at a prominent university in London, UK. I was destined for greatness and a trainee spot at Deutsche Bank's analyst desk. My friend - let's call him Eli, because his name was actually Eli - was a stock genius.
Everybody is a genious in a bull market, you put some money in to a company in IT and BAM, the new Buffett (or Cathie).
Eli was good for about 350kUSD at one point, not bad for a student. Or I should say, 350kUSD nominal value in stocks. Because, its not money until you sell. Eli learned the hard way.
The "dip" came. Eli figured "st0nks only go up" - I'm gonna "buy the dip". The dip became a slide, then a vortex and finally evolving in to a capital sucking black hole (not an anus ok).
Eli bought and bought, he also had a debt position of about 25% of his portfolio. This increased to 50%. The bank called, Hey Eli - that collateral isn't so hot anymore, pay up dude. Eli paid up. One year later he had -13kUSD on his account for accrued interest rates and trading fees.
So what's there to learn. Well, depends on how risk averse you are, but I see a lot of new investors that ask about when and how to take home profits. There is no rule or best practice, but here's at least an strategy that I'm using myself.

1. I don't let a stock grow beyond 20% of my portolio, if it does I automatically start scaling back profits and weight to other, new opportunities.

Compound that interest, bitch.

1. I always keep a 10-15% cash position so I can take advantage on dips or other opportunities. This capital has had a ridiculous payback over the years. This is not money, this is capital. I have a savings account with 3 months salary. That’s money.
   
2. For every 20% growth I take home for example 20% of the profit. So in G-ME for example I started buying early and by $90 I only had profits invested. By 300 I had sold about 2/3 and on the way down I dropped the last stocks at 115.
   

So let’s say a stock grows from 100 to 120. I take back 4. Then it goes to 140, I take back another 8 so now I have taken 12 total.
Obviously there is some flexibility here, but use it for inspiration. For more secure stocks you may wanna hold on more and longer, but for me it’s a lot about maintaining that cash position.
So what do I do with my profits? Well, I do a few things.

1. I reinvest them in to other stocks, so I make sure I have a short list of alternatives at all times. For example, my G-ME winnings (yes it was a casino) paid for 300 PayPal stocks at $231. They’re now up 15%.

Compound that interest, bitch.

1. I put them in the cash position so I can be opportunistic (but still max 15%). Life saver in March, pure rocket fuel baby.
   
2. I buy my wife or kids presents, I get a nice Rolex or refurbish the house. I turn it in to money. I have money so I can spend it, use it.
   

Moral of the story or TLDR;
Make money, you probably won't see another opportunity like the one of the past 6-10 months. Its not coming back for a while.
Don't step out of the market, pick your stocks wisely, keep some cash to pounce on some disappointing earning calls or dips and remember: IT IS NOT MONEY UNTIL YOU SELL.
Disclaimer 2: I was a licensed financial advisor as in a securities analyst, but do your own research. This is not advice, it’s inspiration.
PS Eli went on to be a very successful entrepreneur and has started a few companies. I believe one of them is going to IPO soon DS
Edit: clarified advisor part
Edit 2: this completely blew up, thanks for all the awards and upvotes but spend the money on stocks instead!

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Current Conditions of the Market:
Let me be clear: this is not the typical conditions of the market where stocks fluctuate double and triple digit percentages per day. There’s a place for that - the casino. In recent weeks, herds of new traders are pouring into the trading scene hoping to get a piece of the volatile market that has turned the rags to riches, or the other way around. The stock market as a whole, under normal conditions, moves gradually in both directions, guided by trends, innovation, speculation, earnings report, and financial changes. What we are in right now is a hysteria-filled environment that is risky for both veteran traders and novices. Any uninformed, reckless decision can produce different results - by chance. Be wise and do not let chance underlie your success or bankruptcy stories. Please do your research first before investing into anything and whatever you do, do not make the mistake of over-extending yourself with margin (brokerage-provided capital) that you cannot repay should things go south. People have and continue to make this fundamental mistake that will ruin them financially for years. Stock investments should be about long-term growth, stability, and supplemental to your income. Investments should give you access to the opportunity of financial freedom, but should not be your primary source for income. Do not listen to stock gurus and paid-only discord groups - they don’t make money from stocks, they make money from you. Lastly, this atypical market condition is the perfect storm for spontaneous “pump and dumps” where stocks become inflated, and based on fool’s theory or musical chairs (whichever you prefer), the last one that gets out gets burned. Be smart, be patient, do the research.
Basic Stock Jargons & Short/Long Positions:
Long - you’re buying and holding a stock with the intention for it to increase in value.
Short - you’re borrowing shares from a lender (brokerage, investment firm, individual investors), selling it to someone, and hoping to buy it back at a lower price. Your profit is the difference in the sell and buy back price. I’ll provide a real world example because this concept it a bit more complex:

• Person A is a share lender. They want to lend the share and get paid a small interest rate as compensation.
• Person B asks Person A to lend him that share temporarily. Person B does not pay anything upfront, but he promises to pay Person A in the form of interest over time.
• Person B finds a buyer Person C. Person C wants to buy a stock so it can go up. Person C is “long” on this stock. Person B, however, is short on this stock because he wants the value of the stock to go down.
• Person C pays Person B $10 for the stock. Now, Person C has spent $10, and Person B has gained $10.
• Two hypothetical situation happens now:
  • Scenario 1: Stock value increases to $15. Person C is now up $5 and he sells because he’s making nice gains. Person B needs to buy back that share at $15, but he only gained $10 profit initially. Now he needs to fork up $5 to buy back the share, and then return the share back to the lender + any interest accrued. In this scenario, the “short” lost money, the “long” gained money, and the “lender” made interest money.
  • Scenario 2: Stock value decreases to $5. Person C is now down $5 and he sells to cut losses. Person B needs to buy back that share at $5, but he already has $10 in profit initially. Now he pays $5 for the share, leaving him still with $5 profit, and returns the share back to the lender + any interested accrued. In this scenario, the “short” made money, the “long” lost money, and the “lender” made interest money.
• The above scenarios help to show why “shorts” (typically hedge funds or experienced traders) might want to manipulate the stock price to go down. Hedge funds have an incredible amount of power in the market, which I will explain in a bit, and can often create serious price movements to invoke price action that benefits themselves. Shorts, therefore, have the opposite intention of longs. They want share prices to go down, and in the process, can bankrupt certain companies that rely on the stock market liquidity to stay afloat. In other words, when investors leave a stock because it is dropping in value, the company loses that money that they could have used to pay off debt, grow the business, develop new products, pay for expenses, etc.

Market Manipulation:
Market manipulation is not new to the scene. Investors have long known of the existence of stock market manipulation tactics, and every day, we may observe some levels of manipulation in specific stocks, specific categories or industries of stocks, or the entire market. Market manipulation is defined as any actions performed with the intention of moving a certain stock price in favor of the manipulator. In this case, these are the wealthy “whales” or hedge funds, both of which have enormous capital capable of shifting stock prices at alarming speeds. Keep in mind, not all hedge funds do this and not all hedge funds are “shorts”. Some are “neutral” and act as lenders to make money, some are “growth-based” and invest just like everyday traders with the intention of raising share prices, and others are “short” which are probably perceived to be the sadistic groups of the bunch. Below, I will be discussing how manipulation occurs and on different scales.
Manipulation Tactics on a Spectrum:
Market manipulation can happen in certain stock, sectors, or the entire market. There are probably far more types of manipulative tactics than we know, but I will describe the most basic types and the strategies behind it.
Scenario 1:
Let’s say a hedge fund just opened a short position on stock X. Stock X is rising in value because general investors see it as a potential growth stock. Hedge funds are not too excited about this increased share value, so they can “hedge” or protect themselves, by selling put options. When they sell puts, they are anticipating that the stock will continue to surge, which causes the puts to become worthless at expiration, but on the contrary, they will be collecting the “premium” or money paid upfront by traders that bought the put. At the same time, this hedge fund will slowly “cover”, or buy shares of Stock X, so that the increased value of the shares will offset the short position which is losing money. The manipulation here is by using the sheer amount of capital in hand to bolster the stock, both creating favorable conditions for the puts that they sold and the share that they purchased as cover. If they want to add another level of manipulation to this, they can also purchase call options, which will result in profit if the stock price goes up. In this scenario, hedge funds make money at the expense of put option buyers and other shorts that do not have manipulative power or capital to recreate this same strategy.
Scenario 2:
Let’s say a hedge fund just opened a short position on Stock X. Stock X is rising in value because general investors see it as a potential growth stock. This hedge fund does not want to risk extra capital to cover their short position (by buying shares, selling put options, or buying call options), so they try a different route. Keep in mind that hedge funds are typically heavily invested in many stocks and assets, meaning they have a lot of power in deciding the direction of many stocks that have potential to instill widespread fear across the entire market if it drops. Take for example, if Apple and Google began to hurl downwards, this can create panic in the market where everyday traders might sell their shares at a loss. This in turn might ripple through the market as other investors in other stocks are predicting a downward trajectory across the market since these big name stocks are losing value so rapidly. Conveniently enough, hedge funds own a lot of these big name “FANG” stocks.
If I am a moderately sadistic hedge fund, I can sell off a large holding of shares (in the scale of multi millions or billions) that are in the same sector as Stock X, which would incite fear across the sector, creating panic sell offs. The price will drop sharply across the board, including Stock X, and the short position will produce big profits. Because this hedge fund sold off a large chunk of their shares at a good price, they can now cover their short position (essentially getting rid of it), and then buy up these same stocks that were let go earlier, only this time at a much cheaper price. The hedge fund has now made money not only on the short position, but now they got into the stock at a cheap price in which they can explore other manipulative tactics to bolster the price again. This can be done by encouraging analyst upgrades, publicizing “newly” purchased positions without disclosing the fact that they previously owned it, etc.
Scenario 3:
This one involves technology: algorithm trading (commonly referred to as algo trading). This one is a really intricately designed manipulative tactic that investors really have no way of getting around. Algorithm trading is the process of using high-speed super-computers and a team of traders to constantly monitor market activity and trade when opportunities arise. In this case, the hedge funds do not have to do any direct manipulation of the market, which makes this 100% legal. How this works is by taking advantage of how trading works and the time it takes for a trade to be made. For you general investors, we have mobile apps and web-based trading platforms to trade. When we like a stock, we have to go through the motion of inputting the stock ticker symbol, the amount of shares, the price we are willing to pay, hit submit, and confirm the trade. For hedge funds using algorithm trading, all this is done autonomously, which makes submission of an order several magnitudes quicker. When an order is submitted, it goes through a brokerage (Fidelity, Webull, ETrade, TDA, RH, etc.) and the data is rerouted to a clearing house (intermediate party that verifies and processes the trade). Clearing houses are responsible for making sure your orders are filled, but they take it on a first come first serve basis. So if a stock is moving quickly, hedge funds have a serious edge in getting in cheaper and faster as well as getting out higher and faster.
Algorithm trading is integratable as part of the buying and selling strategies mentioned in the two previous scenarios, which is why they can almost guarantee profit. Algorithm trading also uses a lot of data in their backbone to determine the trades that have a high chance of profitability, and it acts on various factors such as volatility, volume, interest activity, news, etc. In some cases, these algorithms can be set to do some extremely sadistic things. I’ll start by talking about “market orders” vs “limit orders”. Before you make a trade on your brokerage, you will notice an option that says “market order” or “limit order”. Market orders are an agreement that you will purchase the stock or option contract at the best price in the market in the momentary space in time. There is of course a huge risk to that because in that short moment in time, there may not be anyone selling at a good price, and instead, some people might set sell limits at ridiculous prices. For example, some people set a sell limit at $1000 for GME. If you did a market order, and you get really unlucky, you might end up snagging a share for $1000 each, when the actual share value might be $300. However, when you set a “limit order”, you are agreeing to buy a share at a maximum price that you designated.
In the event that a hedge fund siphons a ton of shares of a company, the algorithm can be set to sell these shares at a ridiculous sell limit. Remember, when they buy or sell, it’s processed significantly faster at the clearing houses, so if you’re that one unlucky trader that went for a market order on a stock, you might end up purchasing it at a huge premium set by the hedge funds themselves. Moral of the story: DO NOT PURCHASE AS MARKET ORDER - ALWAYS PURCHASE AT LIMIT ORDER.
I’m am not a financial advisor, so take everything I said as gibberish.

Edit 1: More ARKQ buying today (~50k shares). Thank you everyone for the positive feedback and discussion!
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) or TL;DR for the non-military types:
LMT is a good target if you want to literally go to the moon, and my PT is $690.26 in two years (more than 2x from current levels). Justification and some possible trade ideas are listed below, just CTRL-F “Trade Ideas”. I hope you guys enjoy this work and would appreciate any discussion or feedback. I hope to catch you in the comments.
Team,
We interrupt today’s regularly scheduled short squeeze coverage to discuss a traditionally boring stock, LMT (Lockheed Martin), with significant upside potential. To be clear, this is NOT a short squeeze target like many reddit posts are keying on. I hope that this piece sparks discussion, but if you are just looking for short squeeze content, all I have to say is BUY, HOLD, and GODSPEED.
The source of inspiration for me writing this piece is threefold; first, retail investors are winning, and I believe that we will continue to win if we continue to identify opportunities in the market. In my view, the stock market has always been a place for the public to shine a light on areas of innovation that real Americans are excited about and proud to be a part of. Online communities have stolen the loudspeaker from hedge fund managers and returned it to decentralized online democracies that quickly and proudly shift their weight behind ideas they believe in. In GME’s case, it was a blatant smear campaign to destroy a struggling business. I think that we should continue this campaign by identifying opportunities in the market and running with them. It may sound overly idealistic, but if reddit can take on the hedge funds, I non-ironically believe that we can quite literally take good companies researching space technology to the moon. I think LMT may be one of several stocks to help get us there.
Second, a video where the Secretary of State of Massachusetts argues that internet boards are full of a bunch of unsophisticated, thoughtless traders really ticked me off. This piece is designed to show that ‘the little guy’ is ready to get into the weeds, understand business plans, and outpace analysts that think companies like Tesla are overvalued by comparing them to Toyota. That is a big reason that I settled on an old, large, slow growth company to do a deep-dive on, and try my best to show some of the abysmal predictive analysis major ‘research firms’ do on even some of the most heavily covered stocks. LMT is making moves, and the suits on wall street are 10 steps behind. At the time of writing this piece, Analyst Estimates range from 330-460 (what an insane range).
Third, and most importantly, I am in the US military, and I think that it is fun to go deep into the financials of the defense sector. I think that it helps me understand the long-term growth plans of the DoD, and I think that I attack these deep-dives with a perspective that a lot of these finance-from-day-one cats do not understand. Even if no one ever looks at this work, I think that taking the time to write pieces like this makes me a better Soldier, and I will continue to do it in my spare time when I am feeling inspired. I wrote a piece on Raytheon Technologies (Ticker: RTX) 6 months ago, and I think it was well-received. I was most convicted about RTX in the defense sector, but I have since shifted to believing LMT is the leader in the defense space. I am long both, though. If this inspires anyone else to do similar research on other companies, or sparks discussion in the community, that is just a bonus. Special shout-out to the folks that read more than just the TL;DR, but if you do just read the TL;DR, I love you too!
Now let us get into it:
Leadership
I generally like to invest in companies that are led by people that seem to have integrity. Jim Taiclet took the reins at LMT in June of last year. While on active duty, he served as a C-141B Starlifter pilot (a retired LMT Aircraft). After getting out he went to work for the American Tower Corporation (Ticker: AMT). His first day at American Tower was September 10, 2001. The following day, AMT lost 13 employees in the World Trade Center attack. He stayed with the company, despite it being decimated by market uncertainty in the wake of 9/11. He was appointed CEO of the very same company in 2004. Over a 16 year tenure as CEO of AMT the company market cap 20x’d. He left his position as CEO of AMT in March of last year, and the stock stagnated since his departure, currently trading at roughly the same market cap as to when he left.
Jim Taiclet was also appointed to be the chairman of the board this week, replacing the previous CEO. Why is it relevant that the CEO came from a massive telecommunications company?
Rightfully, Taiclet’s focus for LMT is bringing military technology into the modern era. He wants LMT to be a first mover in the military 5G space, military application of AI space, the… space space, and the hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) space. These areas are revolutionary for the boomer defense sector. We will discuss this in more detail later when we cover the company’s P/E multiple and why it is absolute nonsense.
It is not a surprise to me that they brought Taiclet on during the pandemic. He led AMT through adversity before, and LMT’s positioning during the pandemic is tremendous relative to the rest of the sector, thanks in large part to some strong strategic moves and good investments by current and past leadership. I think that Taiclet is the right CEO for the job.
In addition to the new CEO, the new Secretary of Defense, Secretary Lloyd Austin, has strong ties to the defense sector. He was formerly a board member for RTX. He is absolutely above reproach, and a true leader of character, but I bring this up not to suggest that he will inappropriately serve in the best interest of defense contractors, but to suggest that he speaks the language of these companies effectively. I do not anticipate that the current administration poses as significant of a risk to the defense sector as many analysts seem to believe. This will be expanded in the headwinds section below.
SPACE
Cathie Wood and the ARK Invest team brought a lot of attention to the space sector when the ARKX, The ARK Space Exploration ETF, Form N-1A was officially filed through the SEC. More recently, ARK Invest published their Big Ideas 2021 Annual Report and dedicated an entire 7-page chapter to Orbital Aerospace, a new disruptive innovation platform that the ARK Team is investigating. This may have helped energize wall street to re-look their portfolios and their investments in space technology, but it was certainly not the first catalyst that pushed the defense industry in the direction of winning the new space race.
In June 2018, then President Trump announced at the annual National Space Council that “it is not enough to merely have an American presence in space, we must have American dominance in space. So important. Therefore, I am hereby directing the Department of Defense (DoD) and Pentagon to immediately begin the process necessary to establish a Space Force as the sixth branch of the Armed Forces". Historically, Department of Defense space assets were under the control of the Air Force. By creating a separate branch of service for the United States Space Force (USSF), the DoD would allocate a Chairman of Space Operations on the Joint Chiefs of Staff and clearly define the budget for space operations dedicated directly to the USSF. At present, this budget is funneled from the USAF’s budget. The process was formalized in December of 2019, and the DoD has appropriated ~$15B to the USSF in their first full year of existence according to the FY21 budget.
Among the 77 spacecraft that are controlled by the USSF, 29 of them are Lockheed Martin GPS satellites, 6 of them are Lockheed Martin Space-Based Infrared Systems (SBIRS), and LMT had a hand in creating and/or manufacturing for several of the other USSF efforts. The Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared Missile Warning Satellites (also known as Next-Gen OPIR) were contracted out to both Northrup Grumman (Ticker: NOC) and LMT. LMT’s contract is currently set at $4.9B, NOC’s contract is set at $2.37B.
Tangentially related to the discussion of space is the discussion of hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs). HGVs have exoatmospheric and atmospheric implications, but I think that their technology is extremely important to driving margins down for both space exploration and terrestrial point-to-point travel. LMT is leading the charge for military HGV research. They hold contracts with the Navy, Air Force, and Army to develop HGVs and hypersonic precision fires. The priority for HGV technology accelerated significantly when Russia launched their Avangard HGV in December of 2019. Improving the technology for HGVs is a critical next-step in maintaining US hegemony, but also maintaining leadership in both terrestrial and exoatmospheric travel.
LARGE SCALE COMBAT OPERATIONS (LSCO)
The DoD transitioning to Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) as the military’s strategic focus. This is a move away from an emphasis on Counter-Insurgency operations. LSCO requires effective multi-domain operations (MDO), which means effective and integrated strategies regarding land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace. To have effective MDO, the DoD is seeking systems that both expand capabilities against peer threats and increase the ability to track enemy units and communicate internally. This requires a modernizing military strategy that relies heavily on air, missile, and sensor modernization. Put simply, the DoD has decided to start preparing for peer or near-peer adversaries (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) rather than insurgencies. For this reason, I believe that increased Chinese and Russian tensions are, unfortunate as it may be, a boon to the defense industry. This is particularly true in the missiles/fires and space industry, as peer-to-peer conflicts are won by leveraging technological advantages.
There are too many projects to cover in detail, but some important military technologies that LMT is focusing on to support LSCO include directed energy weapons (lasers) to address enemy drone technology, machine learning / artificial intelligence (most applications fall under LMT’s classified budget, but it is easy to imagine the applications of AI in a military context), and 5G to increase battlefield connectivity. These projects are all nested within the DoD’s LSCO strategy, and position LMT as the leader in emergent military tech. NOC is the other major contractor making a heavy push in the modernization direction, but winners win, and I think a better CEO, balance sheet, and larger market cap make LMT the clear winner for aiding the DoD in a transition toward LSCO.
SECTOR COMPARISON (BACKLOG)
The discussion of LSCO transitions well into the discussion of defense contractor backlogs. Massive defense contracts are not filled overnight, so examining order backlogs is a relatively reliable way to gauge the interest of the DoD in a defense contractor’s existing or emerging products. For my sector comparison, I am using the top 6 holdings of the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (Ticker: ITA). I hate this ETF, and ETFs like it (DFEN) because of their massively outsized exposure to aerospace, and undersized allocation to companies like LMT. LMT is only 18% smaller than Boeing (Ticker: BA) but is only 30.4% of the exposure of BA (18.46% of the fund is BA, only 5.62% of the fund is LMT). Funds of this category are just BA / RTX hacks. I suggest building your own pie on a site like M1 Finance (although they are implicated in the trade restriction BS… please be advised of that… hoping other brokerages that are above board will offer similar UIs like the pie design… just wanted to be clear there) if you are interested in the defense sector.
The top 6 holdings of ITA are:
Boeing Company (Ticker: BA, MKT CAP $110B) at 18.46%
Raytheon Technologies (Ticker: RTX, MKT CAP $101B) at 17.84%
Lockheed Martin (Ticker: LMT, MKT CAP $90B) at 5.62%
General Dynamics Corporation (Ticker: GD, MKT CAP $42B) 4.78%
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (Ticker: TDY, MKT CAP $13B) at 4.74%
Northrop Grumman Corporation (Ticker: NOC, MKT CAP $48B) at 4.64%
As a brief aside, please look at the breakdowns of ETFs before buying them. The fact that ITA has more exposure to TDY than NOC and L3Harris is wild. Make sector ETFs balanced how you want them to be balanced and it will be more engaging, and you will likely outperform. I digress.
Backlogs for defense companies can easily be pulled from their quarterly reports. Here are the current backlogs in the same order as before, followed by a percentage of their backlog to their current market cap. All numbers are pulled from January earning reports unless otherwise noted with an * because they are still pending.
Boeing Company backlog (Commercial: $282B, Defense: $61B, Foreign Military Sales (FMS, categorized by BA as ‘Global’): 21B, Total Backlog 364B): BA’s backlog to market cap is a ratio of 3.32, which is strong, but most of that backlog comes from the commercial, not the defense side. Airlines have been getting decimated, I am personally not interested in having much of my backlog exposed to commercial pressures when trying to invest in a defense play. Without commercial exposure, their defense only backlog ratio is .748. This is extremely low. I understand that this does not do BA justice, but I am keying in on defense exposure, and I am left thoroughly unsatisfied by that ratio. Also, we have seen several canceled contracts already on the commercial side.
Raytheon Technologies backlog (Defense backlog for all 4 subdivisions: 67.3B): Raytheon only published a defense backlog in this quarter’s report. That is further evidence to me that the commercial aerospace side of the house is getting hammered. They have a relatively week backlog to market cap as well, putting them at a ratio of .664, worse off than the BA defense backlog.
Lockheed Martin backlog (Total Backlog: $147B): This backlog blows our first two defense backlogs out of the water with a current market cap to backlog ratio of 1.63.
General Dynamics Corporation backlog (Total Backlog: $89.5B, $11.6B is primarily business jets, but it is difficult to determine how much of their aerospace business is commercial): Solid 2.13 ratio, still great 1.85 if you do not consider their aerospace business. The curveball here for me is that GD published a consolidated operating profit of $4.1B including commercial aerospace, whereas LMT published a consolidated operating profit of $9.1B. This makes the LMT ratio of profit/market cap slightly in favor of LMT without accounting for the GD commercial aerospace exposure. This research surprised me; I may like GD more than I originally assumed I would. Still prefer LMT.
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated backlog (Found in the earnings transcript, $1.7B): This stock is not quite in the same league as the other major contractors. This is an odd curveball that a lot of the defense ETFs seem to have too much exposure to. They have a weak backlog, but they are a smaller growing company. I am not interested in this at all. It has a backlog ratio of .129.
Northrop Grumman Corporation backlog ($81B): Strong numbers here. I see NOC and LMT as the two front-runners in the defense sector. I like LMT more because I like their exposure to AI, 5G, and HGVs more than NOC, but I think this is a great alternative to LMT if you like the defense sector. Has a ratio of 1.69, slightly edging out LMT on this metric. LMT edges out NOC on margins by ~.9%, though, which has significant implications when considering the depth of the LMT backlog.
The winners here are LMT, GD, and NOC. BA is attractive if you think anyone will have enough money to buy new planes. BA and RTX are both getting hammered by commercial aerospace exposure right now and are much more positioned as recovery plays. That said, LMT and NOC both make money now, and will regardless of the impact of the pandemic. LMT is growing at a slightly faster rate than NOC. Both are profit machines, but I like LMT’s product portfolio and leadership a lot more.
FREE CASH FLOW
Despite the pandemic, LMT had the free cash flow to be able to pay a $2.60 per share dividend. This maintains their ~3% yearly dividend rate. They had a free cash flow of $6.4B. They spent $3.9 of that in share repurchases and dividend payouts. That leaves 40% of that cash to continue to strengthen one of the most stalwart balance sheets outside of big tech on the street. Having this free cash flow allowed them to purchase Aerojet Rocketdyne for $4.4B in December. They seem flexible and willing to expand and take advantage of their relative position during the pandemic. This is a stock that has little downside risk and significant upside potential. It is always reassuring to me to know that at the end of the day, a company is using its profit to continue to grow.
HEADWINDS
New Administration – This is more of an unknown than a headwind. The Obama Administration was not light on military spending, and the newly appointed SecDef is unlikely to shy away from modernizing the force. Military defense budgets may get lost in the political shuffle, but nothing right now suggests that defense budgets are on the chopping block.
Macroeconomic pressure – The markets are tumultuous in the wake of GME. Hedgies are shaking in their boots, and scared money weighed on markets the past week. If scared money continues to exert pressure on the broader equity markets, all boomer stocks are likely weighed down by slumping markets.
Non-meme Status – The stocks that are impervious to macroeconomic pressures in the above paragraph are the stonks that we, the people, have decided to support. From GME to IPOE, there is a slew of stonks that are watching and laughing from the green zone as the broader markets slip deeper into the red zone. Unless sentiment about LMT changes, I see no evidence that LMT will remain unaffected by a broader economic downturn (despite showing growth YoY during a pandemic).
TAILWINDS
Aerojet Rocketdyne to the Moon – Cathie Wood opened up a $39mil position in LMT a few weeks ago, and this was near the announcement of ARKX. The big ideas 2021 article focuses heavily on satellite technology, deep learning, and HGVs. I think that the AR acquisition suggests that vertical integration is a priority for LMT. They even fielded a question in their earnings call about whether they were concerned about being perceived as a monopoly. Their answer was spot on—the USFG and DoD have a vested interest in the success of defense companies. Why would they discourage a defense contractor from vertical integration to optimize margins?
International Tensions – SolarWinds has escalated US-Russia tensions. President Biden wants to look tough on China. LSCO is a DoD-wide priority.
5G.Mil – We still do not have a lot of fidelity on what this looks like, but the military would benefit in a lot of ways if we had world-wide access to the rapid transfer of encrypted data. Many units still rely on Vietnam-era technology signal technology with abysmal data rates. There are a lot of implications if the code can be cracked to win a DoD 5G contract.
TRADE IDEAS
Price Target: LMT is currently at a P/E of ~14. Verizon has roughly the same. LMT’s 5-year P/E ratio average is ~17. NOC is currently at a P/E of ~20. TSLA has a P/E Ratio of 1339 (disappointingly not 1337). P/E is a useless metric because no one seems to care about it. My point is that LMT makes a lot of money, and other companies that are valued at much higher multiples do not make any money at all. LMT’s P/E ratio is that of a boomer stock that has no growth potential. LMT’s P/E is exactly in line with the Aerospace and Defense Industry P/E ratio standard. LMT’s new CEO is pushing the industry in a new direction. I will arbitrarily choose a P/E ratio of 30, because it is half of the software industry average, and it is a nice round number. Plus, stock values are speculative and nonsense anyway.
Share price today: $321.82
Share price based on LMT average 5-year P/E: $384.08 (I see this as a short term PT, reversion to the mean)
Share price with a P/E of 30: $690.26
Buy and Hold: Simple. Doesn’t take much thought. Come back in a year or two and be happy with your tendies (and a few dividends to boot).
LEAPS Call Debit Spread (Based on last trade prices): Buy $375 C 20 JAN 23 for $26.5, Sell $450 C 20 JAN 23 for $12. Total Cost $14.5 for a spread width of $75. Max gain 517% per spread. Higher risk strategy.
LEAPS: Buy $500 C 20 JAN 23 for $7.20. Very high-risk strat. If the price target is hit within two years, these would be in the money $183 per contract for a gain of 2500%. This is the casino strat.
SOURCES
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news/features/2020/james-taiclet-from-military-pilot-to-successful-ceo.html
https://www.warren.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/in-response-to-senator-warrens-questions-secretary-of-defense-nominee-general-lloyd-austin-commits-to-recusing-himself-from-raytheon-decisions-for-four-years
https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2019-08-30-Lockheed-Martins-Expertise-in-Hypersonic-Flight-Wins-New-Army-Work
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/hypersonics.html
https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/ARK%E2%80%93Invest_BigIdeas_2021.pdf?hsCtaTracking=4e1a031b-7ed7-4fb2-929c-072267eda5fc%7Cee55057a-bc7b-441e-8b96-452ec1efe34c
https://www.deseret.com/2018/6/19/20647309/twitter-reacts-to-trump-s-call-for-a-space-force
https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2021/fy2021_Budget_Request_Overview_Book.pdf
https://www.airforcemag.com/lockheed-receives-up-to-4-9-billion-for-next-gen-opir-satellites/
https://spacenews.com/northrop-grumman-gets-2-3-billion-space-force-contract-to-develop-missile-warning-satellites/
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/directed-energy/laser-weapon-systems.html
https://emerj.com/ai-sector-overviews/lockheed-martins-ai-applications-for-the-military/
https://www.defenseone.com/business/2020/07/new-ceo-wants-lockheed-become-5g-playe167072/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/defense-firms-expect-higher-spending-11548783988
https://www.etf.com/ITA#efficiency
https://s2.q4cdn.com/661678649/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/4Q20-Presentation.pdf
https://investors.rtx.com/static-files/dfd94ff7-4cca-4540-bc4b-4e3ba92fc646
https://investors.lockheedmartin.com/static-files/64e5aa03-9023-423a-8908-2aae8c7015ac
https://s22.q4cdn.com/891946778/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/GD_4Q20_Earnings_Highlights-Outlook-Final.pdf
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/teledyne-technologies-inc-tdy-q4-2020-earnings-cal/
https://investor.northropgrumman.com/static-files/6e6e117f-f656-4c68-ba7f-3dc53c2dd13a

Hello everyone! I have only been on Reddit for a few months but I learned so much from it that I figured I should try and give back to the community. English is my second language and this is the first time I ever write a full-length article, I hope you will enjoy reading it and I would be very thankful if you could provide some feedback about my writing, about the topic, or about anything else really… So here goes!
Why you should learn poker and game theory:
My story is similar to that of many: I learned about the game 10 years ago (during the golden age of online poker) when some friends of mine invited me to play a home game. Although I initially thought of poker as just another game of chance akin to playing slots or roulette in a casino, I quickly came to realize that there is a lot more to it as my more experienced friends would repeatedly get the best of me during these home games, which led me to start watching videos and reading strategy books to improve my skill… Little did I know it’d be the start of a journey that would impact many different aspects of my life way beyond the game itself, as most of the fundamental principles learned through poker can be applied to your decision-making outside of the game, especially when it comes to money management and investing. Now, let’s dive into a few of these principles:
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- Risk management (i.e. Bankroll management)
When learning about how to be successful playing poker, the first big piece of advice most people come across is bankroll management or BRM. To understand BRM, you must first realize that poker has a lot of variance: you might be vastly ahead in a given hand but there is almost always a slim chance that you will lose in the end if one specific card hits. This implies that you will sometimes lose even though you were a 99% favorite, and that you will sometimes get unlucky and lose 2, 5 or maybe even 20 such encounters in a row. THIS is variance. It doesn’t mean that you played bad or that you made bad decisions, but rather that you got unlucky. Over time you will have lucky streaks and unlucky streaks, and these will average out in the long term… It’s just the way the game goes.
Now that we understand variance, let’s get back to BRM. What is it exactly? Let’s say you are the best poker player in the world but you only have 1000$ that you can EVER use to play with. Taking your whole 1000$ on one table and multiplying your stack at an exponential rate might seem like a good idea. Surely nothing can go wrong since you’re the best player in the world right? But variance can be a bitch ;) Even if you’re the best you will lose regularly and you will sometimes get unlucky, it’s just part of the game. The correct move here is to apply BRM, which means only using a small % of your available capital for each game you play in order to reduce the risk of going broke. Using only 100$ per game would already be a lot safer, but you still run the risk of going under on a streak of bad luck. If you only allocate 10$ per game you play, then it becomes virtually impossible for you to ever go broke, even on a huge streak of bad luck. Sure it’s not as exciting and you won’t be making money quite as fast as you could, but this is the way to go to make sure you don’t go broke…
This approach to risk management translates very well to investing:
- Only invest what you can afford to lose. Once the money is on the table it’s as good as gone, which is why you should only use your “spare” cash and never invest with your living expenses or worse, borrow money to invest.
- Diversify your investments. There is always a chance, however slim it might be, that you will lose most of your investment. This is why going all-in on a specific investment is generally a bad idea (this applies particularly well in the crypto space).
Proper BRM allows you to make sure that you will come out ahead in the long run if you play well, which basically comes down to making more good decisions than bad ones. But that’s assuming you don’t let emotions come in the way of your decision-making, which brings us to our next point…
​
- Emotional management (i.e. Handling tilt/Positive mindset)
Nobody likes losing… In the same way we enjoy winning because of the dopamine rush, we feel bad when we lose which is totally natural. Overcoming this and avoiding tilt (irrational decisions made out of angefrustration) is an essential skill for any successful poker player. You might play a sound game of poker and apply good BRM, but you will still lose if you let your emotions get the best of you.
After a loss, rather than being angry and frustrated, you should evaluate your decision-making. If your decision-making was good, you just got unlucky and you shouldn’t worry about it since you are playing for the long run (remember that variance teaches us that anything can happen in the short-term). If your decision-making was bad, you need to learn from your mistakes and move on. The key here is to always have a positive mindset: making mistakes is part of the learning process and should be seen as an occasion to improve. Being angry and ranting, on the other hand, rarely result in anything positive.
Again, this translates very well to investing:
- Don’t be impulsive, don’t let your emotions cloud your judgment. You should not FOMO because the price is pumping, nor should you sell because of FUD or price corrections. If you believe in a project, short-term price changes (did I hear someone say “variance”?) shouldn’t bother you.
- Don’t get stuck up on losses. You bought the top and it crashed immediately after? You sold the bottom right before a huge rally? Don’t let this bother you: what’s done is done and you just need to move on and make the best of your current situation.
- Have a positive mindset. Anger and frustration lead to nothing. Yes you could have bought in 2009 when you first heard about it, hindsight is always 20/20. Stay positive and keep learning/improving yourself.
The good thing about all this is that it goes way beyond poker or investing. Being aware of your emotions and how they affect you, learning how to handle losing even when you were “supposed” to win, etc… All this can tremendously help you in all aspects of life by making you less impulsive and more rational in your decision-making. Now, this leaves us with our last fundamental principle of a sound poker strategy:
​
- Basic stats and probabilities (i.e. Expected value/Odds)
To become an accomplished player, you will inevitably have to learn about these simple mathematical tools that poker players use all the time in their decision-making process, such as odds and expected value. To make it very simple, the expected value (EV) of any bet is (REWARD \ WinRate - RISK), meaning that if you can bet 1000$ with a chance to win 10k$ half of the time, your EV is *(10000\0.5)-1000 = +4000$**. Obviously these are great odds to take as long as you have enough capital to overcome variance. But things would be very different if the odds of winning were only 5% as your EV would then be negative *(10000\0.05)-1000 = -500$.*** Now this is clearly a bet you should not take…
Now that you know probabilities, statistics and game theory are useful decision-making tools in poker, guess what? They are also extremely useful in investing! Even better, the study of game theory with problems such as the “Byzantine generals” or the “Three prisoners” has been, along with cryptography, the foundation on which blockchain technology was built, enabling the trustless and decentralized services that are about to revolutionize our world…
Assuming this was enough to pique your interest and make you want to dig deeper, I’ll just add that just like the other topics we discussed and as you might have guessed, this translates very well to investing and also to pretty much anything in your life:
- Learn how to break down complex situations. Logical thinking paired with a statistical approach will help you break down any complex problem into several easier problems, making the whole thing a lot easier to approach/comprehend.
- Base your decisions on a methodical and rational approach. List every possible outcome along with its associated upside/downside, estimate the probability of each outcome to occur and make the best decision based on the information available.
My point here is that risk management, emotional management and statistics/game theory are all awesome tools that you should definitely add to your arsenal. Not only will it improve your money-management and investing, it will also be beneficial to your decision-making and to your life in general. Of course poker is not the only way to learn about these, but I personally found it to be the best practice ground to refine and improve them, which is why I strongly encourage you all to try it out and study the game.
I hope you enjoyed the article, and I wish you all a happy 2021 bull run! May we all come closer to retirement and financial independence!
​
TL;DR: more than a game, poker is a school of thought. It teaches you to be reasonable, to assess the risk of every single choice you make, to overcome you emotions, to play the long game rather than the short game, to make informed decisions, etc… This has made me a lot wiser in every aspect of my life, which is why I strongly encourage to try it out and read about poker strategy.

Alright you smooth brain degenerates, here’s some shit I’ve learned along the way which probably wont help you but if it even remotely helps one of you, then I have achieved the goal of this post.
To quote that old guy: price is what you pay, value is what you get. But how do I value a company? I’ve seen it posted a bunch of times. Its more of an art than science, so let’s discuss this dark art.
It constantly boggles my mind at how many cunts dive into buying shares but do not even attempt at trying to think of a realistic valuation, backed up by some sort of financial measure. “What price should I exit at” is almost the equivalent of setting off on a road trip before you have decided on a destination. I accept this view could, and should, evolve over time so asking the question in itself is not unreasonable provided you have your own view. I know this is a casino and this shit is irrelevant for gambling but I’ll continue regardless.
One thing I also see a lot of which I’d like to debunk is the concept of a $5 share price being “cheaper” than a $6 one. Companies, at IPO or any time afterwards, can make their share price whatever they want. A market cap of $100m with 100m shares gives a SP of $1. If they issue less shares, the share price goes up, and the company’s equity value has not changed. Likewise when you do a stock split / consolidation you can adjust the per share price without changing the market cap. If this doesn’t make sense, get off this sub and do not invest in anything until you grasp this, seriously. The concept of “cheapness” comes from the amount of cashflows you expect to receive for a given price. As Wu-Tang told us; C.R.E.A.M. literally all we care about is cashflow, so keep that in mind when you’re thinking about future value as well.
Before I launch into valuation, there needs to be a high-level understanding of the difference between equity value (share price, market cap) and firm/enterprise value (market cap + net debt). You should also adjust firm value for minorities and associates, but let’s keep this as simple as possible. This is relevant when looking at ratios.
The other thing to understand is: valuation (and therefore share price) is a forward-looking beast. If you imagine the hypothetical situation where a company announces a record earnings year in conjunction with a plan to cease all operations, share price would obviously tank – no one gives two fucks that they had a record year if they are closing next year.
Let’s dive in. Broadly, there are two valuation methods: fundamental and relative.
Fundamental:
Few of ways to do this, but main one you’ll see finance cucks talk about is a DCF. This is all about calculating the NPV of future expected cashflows. People shy away from these because they think they are hard. DCFs aren’t complicated, but there are a shitload of subjective assumptions that go into them which, unless you’re prepared to think at a highly granular level about, these aren’t worth the paper they are written on. IRR is just the discount rate required to achieve a NPV of 0.
There’s other ways like dividend discount models but they require stable AF dividends to work.
Relative:
This is referring to multiples like P/E, EV/EBITDA, PEG, EV/FCF, P/sales etc etc. These are quick and dirty and will give an answer in seconds. They’re only truly useful when comparing similar companies. i.e “is afterpay good value compared to zip?”. Rarely will using one in isolation give you an accurate or useful view of a company.
Again, no one gives a flying fuck about what historical multiples are. So, the slightly nuanced thing here is ideally you need a forward-looking number. Historical numbers usually do provide the best guide/context available for future numbers, so we can’t say they are completely irrelevant, but always have your eyes on the road ahead, not in the rear vision.
Examining the P/E multiple, I touched on why historical ‘E’ could be irrelevant for major changes in operations (acquisitions, divestments etc.), but as the capital structure changes this can also impact ‘E’, so you would also need to adjust for any permanent changes in that regard. Point is, be wary of the traps in historical numbers, they’re the easiest to find but not always the most useful.
Generally speaking, people aim to use a denominator as low down on the income statement as possible, as its closest to what you receive as a shareholder. EBIT and EBITDA are sometimes used as a proxy for cash. Equity markets most commonly look to NPAT (P/E), however if its loss making you might need to go to EV/EBITDA, if its capital intensive you should look at EV/EBIT. Note that you use EV as the numerator for EBIT and EBITDA for capital structure neutrality. If it’s a meme stock with no EBITDA then maybe you are looking at a sales multiple, if no sales, well, you have to have a compelling thesis as to what you are buying if they can’t sell their products to anyone else. Some are industry specific (e.g you can’t use EV/EBITDA on a bank, and you wouldn’t value BHP on a P/sales or you’ll look like an idiot pretty quickly).
The higher the multiple, the more growth the company has to deliver on to justify the price. If two identical companies had different multiples, you could (sort of) fairly say that the higher one was “more expensive”. Given multiples change depending on growth (i.e in a company with positive growth, multiples decline the further you look into the future), it’s easy to then understand that these must be time sensitive. If you are comparing a multiple in 12 months time, it should only be compared with other multiples in with the same time frame.
Sometimes, if you can’t be fucked doing a heap of work it can be useful to reverse the question and ask, “what do I actually need to believe for a valuation of $x to be true?”.
Doubt anyone is reading by now so I’ll stop there. If there’s any interest in diving further into these concepts, shout out and I will gladly help. If all the fundamental shit gets you excited there’s a bunch of better resource out there, don’t trust reddit and go read Damoderan or something. This is a very brief intro, so before someone comments “you forgot to include bullshit method xyz that my great grandad used when he was doing a leveraged buyout of Dildos Anonymous Pty Ltd in 1969”, I’ll get in first and highlight it is not even close to being exhaustive.
Peace out and stay retarded. Here’s a rocket 🚀
TLDR; boring valuation shit discussed above. Not relevant to gambling.

I've taught college-level investments classes, and I think a lot of you people would benefit from some of what we talk about in there.
It's important for you to understand what exactly risk is, in the finance sense. Watch this video and think about how you would react in this scenario. The expected value (average value of all possible outcomes) of the case is $500,000.50. I have a feeling that if you sold that case on the market you'd find a market price below that; the difference between the expected value and the market price (assuming a fully liquid market) is the risk premium
A central concept of finance and investments is this: the more risk you take, the more return you get. The safest thing you can do is convert your holdings to cash and stick it in your wallet, but you would get zero return (and lose purchasing power due to inflation over time). Technically, sticking money in a savings account is riskier, though interest rates on savings deposits is essentially zero these days and deposit insurance removes most of that risk. Any market play that gets you massive returns is putting a bunch of capital at risk (think about that WSB guy who put $700,000 into GME options; imagine what happens to the guy if the price doesn’t move). The reason the most common investment advice is to fire everything into low-cost index funds is because it’s low risk and low cost (active management of mutual funds rarely justifies the extra cost, but that’s a different discussion entirely). If you’re undertaking extra risk, you theoretically should be getting extra return to justify that risk. Think about a lottery ticket. If the jackpot is high enough, the expected value (the averaged return you get from all possible outcomes) of a lottery ticket is higher than the price you pay for it. However, given the limited set of outcomes that a lottery ticket gives you and the likelihood of the worst case scenario (you lose your entire investment), the risk is too high for most people to seriously invest in (and if you do “seriously” invest in the Powerball, you’re probably not having a good time).
Another important consideration is liquidity. If you're selling a Stradivarius violin, you're going to have to spend a lot of time searching for a buyer who will pay full price OR you’ll have to sell it for less than it’s worth. In the market, this tends to be reflected in the bid/ask spread. We like to think about the market as a monolith, but in reality it’s just an aggregation of all the investors out there. That means liquidity isn’t a problem when it comes to most stocks on the NYSE and NASDAQ (eg. At the time of this writing the bid/ask spread on AAPL was $.01 for a price of $136.79), but when you head to OTC territory you might start seeing bid/ask spreads that can be up to 10% of the price for some of those real “no man’s land” stocks. That means that the price you pay (the ask price) and the price you can sell at (the bid price) can be wildly different. That also means that any “at current market price” order you send (especially in pre-market) may be filled at a price different than the price you think it’s going to be filled at.
A third concept to think about is market efficiency. The central idea of market efficiency is that the price reflects all available information (different forms of efficiency consider private/public/historical info). A truly efficient market will react instantaneously and accurately to any new information that is created/released, eg. A firm releases earnings and beats expectations, therefore the price jumps up.
If market efficiency is a product of investors discovering information and acting on it, that means your best opportunities are in places that are less visible to the aggregate investing public. That’s where pennystocks comes in. Do a search on most of the tickers listed here, and you’ll see a bunch of summary stock profiles and not much else. Do a search for any S&P 500 company and you’ll find an incredible amount of news, branding, and other information. If you’re looking for “good” penny stocks to buy up, you’re looking for an information advantage over the “average” investor. However, there is the hazard (that’s been around long before the internet) of bad or fake information.
Remember that the market is an aggregate of all the investors out there, and those investors are subject to psychological biases, differences in personal attitude, and individual risk tolerance. That’s why you see some interesting reactions to events: remember when TSLA stock dropped because Elon Musk was smoking marijuana? There’s nothing about the CEO smoking marijuana that should change the fundamental value of the company, but investors collectively seemed to think this was a negative for the long term prospects of TSLA.
A few common investor biases:
• Losses are treated as more impactful than a gain. Think about if you buy into a stock and it immediately drops $.10. Compare this to how you react if you buy in and it immediately jumps $.10; the average investor is going to react more strongly to the former.
• We all hate having made a “loser” trade. The effect is usually that investors hold on too long to a poorly performing stock in hopes that it will rebound.
• Investors tend to anchor their perception of a stock’s performance based on their entry price. A $.10 drop in price hits worse if it takes you below your purchase price
• Playing with “house money” (ie. your gains) is treated differently than your initial principal. In practice, this means that an investor that has done well recently is more risk-tolerant (and not always in a good way)
• Investors are susceptible to "herding" behavior, where they follow what someone else is doing not because they know what that someone else is doing is good, but because they think that someone else knows something they don't.
Stock prices are subject to the principles of supply and demand, ie. increased demand will raise the price, and people looking to sell more than buy will lower the price. This is especially important when it comes to momentum (the principle that an increasing stock price will continue to increase and a falling price will continue to fall). This is why you see overreactions to news items and a subsequent reversal; a news item creates a buying/selling frenzy that pushes the price until cooler heads walk in and say “maybe this price is wrong”. This is where swing traders try to profit: among other things, they look for stocks that have a drop that is unjustified in material info or in the degree of drop, buy up at “downward momentum” prices and sell after the reversal. Day traders also try to benefit by buying stocks with positive momentum and selling the second that momentum reverses.
So what does this mean for us at pennystocks? A few considerations that are unique for penny stocks:
1) I already mentioned it, but liquidity is a big consideration: Bid/ask spreads may be larger than normal and many brokers either don’t let you trade below $.01 or make you pay a fee to do so. This also means that options covering penny stocks are either sparse or nonexistent.
2) Information coverage: information can be hard to find, and sifting through good and bad info can be a chore
3) Low market participation: The smaller number of traders means that it takes fewer people to influence the price in a material way. This is what makes penny stocks susceptible to pump and dump schemes: A bad actor just needs to convince a (relatively) small number to buy in to a stock to bump up the price, then the dump can crater the price leaving a bunch of bag holders in their wake.
This also means that the price is subject to more psychological bias on the part of investors.
4) There are a lot of biotech firms in penny-stock land. The fortunes of these companies rest entirely on the outcomes of drug trials and/or acquisition by larger firms, which means you can see massive swings in price.
This scene from The Wolf of Wall Street should be required viewing for anyone wanting to jump headfirst into penny stocks. The modernization of trading means that commissions are drastically reduced, but the lessons here still apply. I’m not saying “don’t invest” because there are some mighty gains to be had if you do it right. I’m saying “be cautious” and certainly don’t trade on emotion. Understand that what we’re doing here is speculation, and that many stocks with penny prices are trading at penny prices for a reason. Increased volatility in the penny stocks market is going to make you feel a lot of things, but it’s important to compartmentalize this emotion and trade logically. The moment you start treating it, consciously or unconsciously, like a casino, you’ll get casino-like returns (spoiler alert, the house always wins in the end)
A few closing thoughts:
• Like another recently popular post here said, don’t be afraid to walk away for a few days to cool off.
• FOMO is the gains killer; there will always be a New Moon in terms of penny stocks.
• Pay attention to the sector you’re buying in and understand how that might influence the volatility of the stock’s price. Be especially wary of anyone trying to sell you on a “sure thing” biotech firm.
• MLFB to the moon! (Just kidding, don't rely on me to tell you what to buy) (EDIT: By Request 🚀🚀🚀)
And finally
• Do your own research! There are some legitimate DD threads on here, but you should do your own research and make sure they’re legit. Some threads here sound a lot like Jordan Belfort in the video above.
Further reading:
Wikipedia’s very long list of cognitive biases
Efficient markets hypothesis
Behavioral finance

Hi everyone,
Writing this as a PSA because of the rampant toxic masculinity culture in the army, and I find it ridiculous that many continue to advocate it.
Disclaimer: I’m not saying that all NS experiences are bad, I’ve had many nice memories from NS too, but this is a topic that should be talked about.
I’m less than 100 days to ORD and serving in an active combat unit. I’ve been on both sides of the fence (done the full training program, gone for outfields, got IPPT Gold & Marksman, etc… AND also had multiple 84 days LDs, excuse RMJ, heavy load, upper limbs, long 4, boots, & lots of MCs during my time in NS) and 1 thing that really irks me is how commanders would define “being a man” because of the toxic masculinity culture in the army.
On a basic, superficial level: going for outfields, completing training, getting gold for IPPT, getting the marksman award, volunteering for guard duties makes a man.
And on the flip side, reporting sick & having long term medical statuses would then make someone “less of a man”.
In a more complex level: I also don’t understand why NSF & Regulars like encouraging toxic lifestyle habits like smoking a pack of cigarettes a day, getting wasted drunk and passing out on the streets over the weekends, hiring prostitutes or sleeping around meaninglessly with tinder dates, gambling their meagre NSF pay at illegal casinos or even something simple like needing to swear in every sentence or shouting when angry. (no, it really does not get your point across better)
Apparently when probed “why they do these” further, it is “manly” to do such things??
And the strange is: my whole company & possibly unit believes in this warped mindset and those “chao keng” people would often be bullied by the commanders. I wonder if this culture is the same for other units…?
So my point is:
Running below 10 mins for your 2.4km and doing 60 push-ups & 60 sit-ups don’t make you a man, it makes you an athlete at best.
BUT if you can take care of your girlfriend’s or wife’s physical/ emotional/ financial/ spiritual needs, raise your children in a loving home, support & provide for your family and pets, have filial piety, treat your parents & siblings well, be responsible and accountable to your actions, keep to your words & promises, plan financially for your future, get an education, develop & build your career, etc… (you get the idea) that itself really makes a man to me.
Girlfriends of NSFs/ Regulars, I’m sure it’s more manly if your man does these, no?
There’s also a common saying that Singaporean guys personality change the most (for the worse usually) during NS and I think I can see why now... it’s all these traits of toxic masculinity and the warped idea of “what makes a man” that slowly gets into them over the span of 2 years.
Honestly I am not surprised if there’s a correlation between the high divorce/ breakup rates in Singapore, the “my crazy/ toxic/ abusive ex-boyfriend” stories, the men objectifying women, uncomfortable staring in public/ molesting/ filming up-skirt/ toilet videos/ rape cases as seen more commonly in Singapore news recently AND the toxic masculinity culture taught to them in NS.
So PSA if you’re one of them: please stop espousing the toxic masculinity culture in NS and please take a step back and re-evaluate what truly makes a man to you.
Maybe it’s just that my experience is more unique because I’m in a mono intake unit, but I highly doubt it anyway.

Hey guys, it’s Coooolin ! How was everyone’s day!? :) Hope you all had a wonderful one! Let me know how it was downn belooww! :)
Here are the new cards for today, Thanks EA! :)

Silver Master Icons

Rob Blake - 91 OVR - LAK / RD - H and S² , SPE² ... 89 SPEED , 92 with DIS + SPE
Ted Lindsay - 91 OVR - DET / LW - BAL² , T² .. 89 FO with T
Bernie Parent - 91 OVR - PHI / G - 5’10” / 170 lbs - SPA² , SWA² ... yuck
— Set needs 9 Icons + Bronze Icon to upgrade to Silver —
——-

Primetimes

NHL

Ryan O’Reilly - 90 OVR - STL / C - LTL¹ , T¹ ... 97 FOs - Without Thief!!
Seymon Varlamov - 88 OVR - NYI / G - 6’2” / 215 lbs - H and S¹ , SPA¹
Tom Wilson - 87 OVR - WAS / RW - GLA¹ , WM¹
Erik Cernak - 87 OVR - TBL / RD - HOW¹ , WH¹
Fredrik Anderson - 86 OVR - TOR / G - 6’4” / 230 lbs - BAR¹ , SWA¹
Clayton Keller - 86 OVR - ARI / C - PP¹ , MAG¹
Anthony Cirelli - 85 OVR - TBL / C - SPE¹ , SH¹
Matt Martin - 84 OVR - NYI / LW - HOW¹ , WH¹
Jack Roslovic - 84 OVR - CBJ / C - LTL¹ , SPE¹
Mike Smith - 84 OVR - EDM / G - 6’4” / 220 lbs - DIS¹ , SPA¹ .... oh babyy
Tyler Ennis - 81 OVR - EDM / LW - GLA¹ , WM¹
Alexander Kerfoot - 81 OVR - TOR / C - PP¹ , SPE¹
• • • • • • • • • • - - - - - - - - - • • • • • • • • • • • •

Packs Available

23H 40M
• Jumbo Elite Pack - 50k C / 1k P
20 items , with at least 11 80+ OVR Players
• Mega Pack - 37.5k C / 750 P
30 items, at least 15 Gold Players, and 4 80+ OVR Players
• Players Pack - 15k C / 300 P
10 items, all Players, at least 5 Gold Players and 1 80+ OVR Player

P.S.

• Rivals Resets Today
• More Bold Cards

Hockey News

• Koivu Retires
• NHL postpones more games

Stock Market News

• Why Pot Stocks are Flyying!
• Stock Dip after Reaching Record Highs!

Other News

• National Pizza Day
• Today in History
——————

What’s to Come?

• SB Season Reset - Wednesday at 5pm EST
• Rivals Rewards - Wednesday at 5pm EST
• HUT Champ Rewards - Wednesday at 6am EST
• SB Rewards !! - Thursday at 5pm EST
• New Event !! - Friday at 5pm EST
—————

Summary of the day

Quick Read
Best Forward of the Day - PT - is RYAN O’REILLYY OVR 90 with the syn LIGHTT the LAMPP and THIEFF
Best Defence of the Day - PT - is ERIKK CERNAKK OVR 87 with the syn HOWITZERR and WORKK HORSEE
• Rivals Resets ! Where did you place?
———— —— ———

Important Notice

Day by day may seem like nothing changes, but when you look back a lot has changed.
Take risks. Do what makes you happy. Smile more. Laugh more. Have fun!!
Don’t take life too seriously , and yourself too seriously.. learn to have fun!! Learn to laugh at yourself if you did something dumb, your mistakes, etc.,
Life is way too short to just sit and wait... when you can make a difference and big change in your life today!
—-

Interested in Stocks?

EA’s Stock Price, after hours - Feb 9
$ 146.11 (usd) —- Currency Converter
we looked at the stock at $137.54 usd
—— That is a difference of ( $8.57 / 6.23% ) —
Disclaimer - I am not a financial advisor. It is your money, please do your own due diligence. I am not responsible for your money. This is *not** advice. I added this section for an added educational purposes only. Thanks*
—— —— —— —-

NEED A SOUNDTRACK TO LISTEN TO?

• I made this for everyone. I’ll update it whenever I feel like it, but its been often!

WE’RE AT 1400 SONGS! WOW! How are you not listening to this playlist already!?
Comment songs to add, and please give feedback! It’s much appreciated!!
I currently have “Speechless” by “Dan + Shay” stuck in my head.... which you can play, recently added to the playlist!
Sidenote - How do you guys like the playlist!? I have a friend who makes music...and I really want to surprise him with some new people listening to his music... if you wanna help me, please click Here!! it would mean a lot to me!!
———-

Sites To Bookmark!

If you click here you will be redirected to bilasport. Bilasport is the best Online Streaming site for your entertainment needs for all sports! (Not affiliated)
A great streaming source recommended by NHLStreams is SurgeSport. Click on Hockey and you’ll be good to go!
Want to make your dream team, and show others what you’ve been working on, and much more? I will redirect you HERE!.
Here’s a helpful pack guide for you! Click!
Want to know how the market is holding up? With a simple TAP! you will be on the newly fresh made website for the HUT market, made by one of the guys on the sub!
.... what do the stats on a card mean? Is my card I want / pulled good? Click here to find out!!
When is my favourite team playing? When do they play!? Here you can click on this link, and tap on your favourite team. From there, tap “Schedule” . You can add this to your homescreen on iPhone by clicking the square with the upwards arrow, scrolling down, and tapping “Add to Home Screen”
——- —— —— —— —— —— —— —— —- —— —-

Fighting a Gambling Addiction?

Don’t feel scared to click here. Winning is SO much louder than losing. Know that you are NEVER alone. We are all here for eachother, and it is never too late to get help. I am here for you.
This is a VERY important thread, especially if you are new to HUT. Here!

Colin’s Thoughts

I got accepted to a College for Business - Accounting !! :) Super excited to see where this leads me!
4 other Colleges to respond back! :) Yay!
Also, mighttt have a job at Home Depot! All depends if they phone me back or not, and look at it!! I’m so stoked !
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40 / 365
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Thanks for reading.
I’m always welcome to feedback, please let me know what I can improve on.
If there’s anything missing, please let me know!
Take care, happy gaming! HAPPY NATIONAL PIZZA DAY!!
• Coolin Killin It
(Life is like a puzzle, you just have to find the right piece.)

I saw this on stocks and agreed with this guy (u/comedian213)and figured I’d post it here. But heads up, I spiced it up a bit so it wasn’t so fucking boring.
Position: 50x SPWR 2/26 45C - Casino style, not this “shares”bullshit
Obligatory Rockets:
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Alright retards, let’s talk about SUNPOWER (SPWR)
OP, the “investor” fuck that he is, is looking for a long term hold and he thinks he found it: Sunpower (SPWR)
Sunpower is one of the leading Solar installation/manufacturing/battery storage companies in the industry. And that fucking industry is rapidly growing. We are talking printer go fucking brrrr. Thank sleepy!
Just google “top solar companies” and tell OP which companies have the best product and best customer ratings. Spoiler alert, Sunpower is #1.
Sunpower hit $57 dollars before crashing down to $40 where it hit hard hard resistance today. Were talkin huge buy orders for 2 mill+. And even look at who owns it - bunch Blackrock, Citedal, the likes. I agree, fuck these guys, but at the same time, why bet against them? It’s gonna go up, and keep going up.
What most people don’t know, is, that Sunpower has started to roll out a new product that will consume market share from everyone’s favorite, Tesla. The product is called SunVault. SunVault is an energy storage battery that very well competes and rivals the Tesla power wall. I believe that SunVault will sell extremely well and could bring Sunpower up to Tesla levels in terms of solar and energy storage. The product is capable of powering your home for nearly 3 days. And when combined with the high efficiency panels that Sunpower offers, it’s game changing.
Some technical analysis for you autists. Sunpower literally has a revenue of 274 million, while Sunrun (at over 2x the market cap) is at 209 million. Sunpower also cut manufacturing costs by splitting into two companies (SPWR and Maxeon Technolgies). Maxeon is manufacturing solar panels for SPWR, and they are doing it overseas. This split happened in late August and has yet to affect their profit, but will completely reshape SPWR’s profit margin in the near future.
SunVault only started rolling out last summer and Solar sales don’t really pick up till spring. So getting in now and ride the rocket to the moon!
this is not investment advice. It is OP’s opinion. I am not a financial advisor.

Happy Friday everyone! 2/5/2021
Very happy with the week we've had. To those of you who added to the group, welcome! Amazing how fast this subreddit ran up, I joined at ~2k and wish you all nothing but the best of luck.I will be posting often here because I want to be involved in the community, and I want to breakdown news for you guys and speculate what is or could be happening in the market.To those of you who have been holding or buying, I am happy to hear you guys have the same sentiment. This is NOT just a trade, this is an investment. We believe there is value here. We believe there are strong business fundamentals here. We believe in John Chen and BB.
While I do appreciate the diamond hands, rocket ships and apes wanting to collect banana for massive banana fund, keep that away. This is an investment opportunity and should not be treated as a casino.
Now, to my post of the day.
With more and more partnerships being released to the news it's important to reflect on what we know, and possible routes I believe this could take. There are three massive players in the market that BB is associated with that would be prime candidates for a buyout.
-Google (Android) -Baidu (Apolo) -Amazon
Why would those companies want to buy BB? "Next-Generation Vehicle Products"
Google https://twitter.com/BlackBerry/status/1357793899872411648?s=20 This post confirms that BB is using Android (ie Google) technology and development, so an acquisition would be theoretically seamless and Google would be able to know the total lengths and extent that IVY could bring. If IVY is amazing, Google should buy them. Google may have a contract with Ford to provide them with something like IVY, but it could just as easily be IVY.
Baidu https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/baidu-tops-beijing-autonomous-vehicles-road-test-report-for-the-third-consecutive-year-301222929.html
Why is this relevant?
Autonomous vehicles are the future there is no doubt. They cannot get enough long-haul professional drivers, there's always a shortage. And with their partnership with Baidu, aka China's Google, why wouldn't Baidu try and prevent BB from working with Google and capture BB's market share before Google does? Baidu is clearly making an attempt to do everything Google is doing in this manner, Google already has had an autonomous car for TWELVE YEARS NOW. (source: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/052014/how-googles-selfdriving-car-will-change-everything.asp#:~:text=In%202009%2C%20Google%20started%20the,self%2Ddriving%20project%20became%20Waymo. )
If Baidu was smart and wanted to capture the market share, an acquisition needs to happen as soon as possible, locking out Google.
Amazon https://onlinexperiences.com/scripts/Server.nxp?LASCmd=AI:4;F:QS!10100&ShowUUID=44A51ADB-0425-420D-8A06-6ACABFCF98FF&LangLocaleID=1033&Referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.autonews.com%2Fevents%3Fevent_type%3D64571 Next-Gen Vehicle Architectures Unlock Unprecedented Opportunities for Automaker webinar. Sounds pretty interesting, I am excited to see what this brings. With Amazon already getting involved in autonomous drones, I have no doubt that this webinar is about autonomous vehicles.
​
BB has the experience, and the largest market share currently with QNX as of today in the market of what I will call for ease "next-generation vehicle products". They know the problems, they know the kinks from the years of feedback they've had to have with companies.
Vehicles are more and more advanced and are becoming more like computers. The advancement in infotainment in a vehicle would be comparable to the advancement in smartphones. It is and will be an ever-growing industry and only grow larger in time. Look at how far vehicles advanced in the last 20 years, like oil change/ tire sensors. Bluetooth technology, maps on your dashboard. A small thing today, but huge advancements at the time, and this technology will only continue to grow at an exponential rate, and it is not unreasonable to believe the next big thing is, and always has been the autonomous driving cars.
​
BB, A Security Company They're the best in class around the world, I feel like this has been repeated a thousand times, but... https://twitter.com/JohnChen/status/1356430527998423040?s=20 18/20 G20 Countries use BB security.7/7 G7 Countries use BB security.77% of Fortune 100 Companies use BB security.
They literally have freaking AI-driven antivirus developed already that is not too demanding on CPU or RAM. https://promos.cylance.com/en-ca/?gclid=CjwKCAiA9vOABhBfEiwATCi7GDHcCw5DTqiDegd3FZ4-LQ9YDwwvwcq8A88JYL0YItW__k1k2A4COxoCm8EQAvD_BwE
BB uses encrypted messaging on BBM and is available to everyone https://www.blackberry.com/us/en/company/newsroom/press-releases/2019/blackberry-makes-its-enterprise-grade-end-to-end-encrypted-messaging-platform-available-to-bbm-consumers
A lot like Whatsapp or Signal, these messages are encrypted. This is important for security reasons. You won't be hearing about any "Hilary Clinton email leaks" anymore with this.
​
Security is of #1 importance in autonomous vehicles
The vehicles of the future I promise you will all be connected to the internet. No question about it. They will be able to send and retrieve data easier amongst one another and the last thing we want is a virus developed that can completely brick the car's electronics, (think about it like deleting system32 on your computer) or even deadlier, deny the ability to brake will driving autonomously or drive recklessly.
​
This is everything BB is about. Providing safety, security, and reliability. Security is becoming greater and greater of importance on the internet as we move forward today.
​
Thank you for reading, and have a good weekend. Take care of yourself, your family and your friends.
And as always,
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, or stock picks, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment, or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. Furthermore, these are only my thoughts, so none of this should be considered financial advice.
I'm literally fucking retarded and if you take the financial advice of losers on Reddit you deserve to lose all your money.