NFL Week 12 Opening Lines and Spreads

nfl point spreads week 12 over under

nfl point spreads week 12 over under - win

Official r/NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

Welcome to the week 14 Official NFL Power Rankings! With circus catches and beatdowns alongside great games, there was plenty to discuss even before a MNF Scorigami that might already be airing on ESPN classic. 32/32 Reporting
# Team Δ Record Comment
1. Chiefs -- 12-1 The Dolphins gave the Chiefs all they could handle in the first quarter of Sunday's game, but the Chiefs once again proved that when they are focused, they are the most dangerous team in the NFL. Travis Kelce, the NFL's leading receiver currently, had another monster game showing why he's a future hall of famer. However, after having five 10+ point wins in the first eight weeks of the season, the Chiefs last five wins have all been won by one score. Will this trend ultimately matter come playoff time? It's hard to argue with results, as the Chiefs 12-1 record is the best record through 13 games in franchise history. The ultimate barometer for the Chiefs is this week as they travel to play the Saints, hopefully with Drew Brees. Many questions will be answered in this clash of two top five teams.
2. Packers +2 10-3 There always seems to be one Lions-Packer game a year that ends up being some kind of adventure. Rodgers and Adams were as good as ever but the Lions kept on lingering throughout the game. Mason "Silver Fox" Crosby nailed an insurance 58 yard field goal with 3:30 to play and made a touchdown-saving tackle on the immediate kickoff. Aside from Crosby, the special teams really leave a lot to be desired, especially after the hands team almost allowed a onside kick recovery (c'mon y'all I don't need Bostic flashbacks). Packers officially won the division game and are now the projected 1 seed, which is pretty neat ngl. Onto a Saturday game I guess?
3. Bills +2 10-3 For a team that was searching desperately in 2019 for a signature win, the 2020 Bills have found them everywhere they turn. This team has had one of the toughest schedules in the league, but except for a couple games they've shown up every time they've had to. This is the second-best team in the conference. The Bills bandwagons are circling now. Josh Allen's extending his baseball glove-sized hand. He says "get in nerds, we're goin' to the Super Bowl."
4. Saints -1 10-3 This loss = Hurts. Dennis Allen seemingly had no answers for the rookie QB and then Miles Sanders piled on as well. "All the things we didn't want to allow happen, happened in that game." This was Sean Payton's post-game assessment and it's fair. Taysom Hill had an acceptable statline but it hides how sloppy he looked on the field. The defense struggled with its assignment to contain Hurts and keep him from getting outside the pocket - a worrying sign considering the next QB on the schedule.
5. Steelers -3 11-2 The Steelers schedule has been insane. 6 days between NYG and DEN. 14 days between HOU and PHI. 10 days between JAX and BAL. But with that BAL game, the Steelers played them, WFT and BUF in 12 days. 3 games in 12 days. The team is out of LBs and OL. This has been a challenging season for everyone, but this is unprecedented. The Steelers have 8 days until CIN, then 6 days until IND. 10 out of 16 games played with an irregular schedule? You can argue the drops are kicking their ass, but this schedule has been brutal. No wonder they've lost 2 straight.
6. Rams -- 9-4 Imagine only scoring 3 points in a game.
7. Colts +1 9-4 Kenny Moore is a player underrated by national media but massively valuable to the Colts. GM Chris Ballard made re-signing him a priority after his breakout 2018 season. Moore has been a reliable performer throughout his tenure as a Colt and added an exclamation point with his insane one-handed interception on Sunday.
8. Titans +1 9-4 Derrick Henry had his second 200+ yard 2 TD game against the Jaguars on Sunday. The performance made Henry the 7th player to rush for 1,500+ yards and 14+ TDs through 13 games.
9. Seahawks +1 9-4 Nothing cures suicidal thoughts losing like playing the Jets, baby. Sunday was never much of a game, as it was all Seahawks all day. Russell Wilson threw for 4 touchdowns, Jamal Adams broke the single season sack record for defensive backs, and Geno Smith got to play a full quarter against the team that drafted him. What a way to get over a bad loss to the Giants. Up next the Seahawks will take on their final NFC East opponent of the season; Football Team.
10. Ravens +2 8-5 This ranker is a brown man, writing about how Lamar Jackson lost 20 pounds dropping some brown, dropping a TD to Brown, to go ahead against the Browns. They go for two. So in response, K-hunt ties the game, 42-42. In response, the Llama sets up the GOAT to nail a 54-yarder, 16th game winner of his career! To say nothing else of the game -- 9 total fucking rushing touchdowns, tying a record held since two defunct teams played each other before anyone on reddit was born... and Jackson runs for a MNF QB record 124 yards -- but still gets all the clutch plays done with his arm, with this middling group of receivers. The even greater news amidst all this is that the schedule doesn't look so bad in the closing stretch, and inspired play like this past Monday from the offense will ease the burden of the Ravens' gradually depleting secondary. Best wishes to Trace McSorely who made an extremely commendable effort to set them up for Lamar's return.
11. Browns -4 9-4 Did you bet the over? The Browns and Ravens combined for 89 points in an absolute rollercoaster of a game. While they did not win, the Browns have shown they are contenders. With two games to go a real shot at the playoffs is on the table. The Browns will face the Giants in another prime time game.
12. Buccaneers -1 8-5 The Buccaneers pulled off a 26-14 win over the Vikings, bringing their playoff chances to 94%. Vikes kicker Dan Bailey channeled his inner Gary Anderson to win the Bucs' game ball on an 0/3 kicking performance with an additional missed XP. Rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. played a disruptive game against his dad's former team and is looking like he has the potential to be one of the league's next great safeties. With only interim coaches to close out the remaining three games of the season, the Bucs should have smooth sailing into the Wild Card round.
13. Dolphins -- 8-5 There are no consolation prizes in the NFL, but a single score loss to the best team in the league while the backup waterboy is lining up in the slot is about as close to a one as you'll ever get. While he was able to pull off the win, even Patrick Mahomes couldn't keep this ball-hawking defense from getting a hold of the ball, often. And at some point, if people don't start talking about Xavien Howard in the DPOY conversation, he's just going to go intercept the damned award himself. Hopefully, the long, long list of injured Dolphins get well soon.
14. Cardinals +1 7-6 A monster day from Haason Reddick and the defense finally put the Cardinals back on the winning track. Breaking a franchise record with 5 sacks was one thing, but getting all the turnovers was huge. Hopefully the offense feeds off of it and has a good week in preparing for a big game with Philly that has huge playoff implications. It will take a complete team effort to beat Philly with Jalen Hurts starting fresh of a win against the Saints.
15. Raiders -1 7-6 The Raiders looked really bad against the Colts, just like they have for the better part of the last 6 weeks. Luckily Gruden finally made the call to fire Pauly G, something fans have been calling for for the past 2 seasons. Only time will tell if it's too little, too late. Every game from here on out is a must win if the Raiders want to make the playoffs.
16. Washington FT +3 6-7 Washington is finding ways to win instead of finding ways to lose. The offense was not able to score a TD so the defense went ahead and spotted them 14 points. Chase Young notches his first TD and continues to prove his worth as the 2nd overall pick as a game wrecker.
17. Vikings -- 6-7 Dalvin Cook became the first back to rush for over 100 yards against the Bucs in over 20 games, but the Vikings were unable to convert long drives into points as Dan Bailey went 0/4 on field goals and extra points. Couple that with some questionable officiating, the Vikings' banged up front seven generating zero pressure on Tom Brady and plenty of self-inflicted wounds and it all adds up to a real tough loss that knocks the Vikings down from wild card favorites to playoff long shots.
18. Bears +5 6-7 The Bears finally snapped their six-game losing streak by rolling over the Texans without much difficulty. Trubisky attempted one throw longer than 20 yards.
19. Patriots -3 6-7 Los Angeles, is a land of contrasts - In a span of four days the Patriots' hopes for a postseason were revived and then unceremoniously squashed. Run Defense, Offensive Line, Cam and the Receivers, There just are too many holes to cover up with week to week coaching, this team needs some reworking over the offseason. The Pats end the season with the division as always, lets hope to fuck someone’s season or seeding up. And also the Jets.
20. 49ers -2 5-8 The 49ers defense did their job, holding the Washington offense to a total of 9 points, but the offense had two takeaways brought back for touchdowns and could not recover. The team looks to right the ship this week against the Cowboys.
21. Broncos +5 5-8 Drew Lock put up the third-highest passer rating in team history — behind a couple guys you may know. In the battle of 4-8's, the Broncos somehow managed to not blow a sizeable fourth-quarter lead and emerge victorious. Winning the game but losing The Hunt for a Better Draft Pick. Will the team remain in purgatory? Stay tuned.
22. Giants -2 5-8 It’s a real joy to watch the rest of the teams in the up-for-grabs NFC East secure wins, with one being against a top-5 team, all while watching your team play so poorly they start setting franchise records. At least we can say the hype was fun while it lasted, right?
23. Falcons -1 4-9 Outplayed by a team whose most impressive win is a tossup between the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets? Check. Outcoached by special teams ace Anthony Lynn? Check. Ten point lead blown, two interceptions with under five minutes left, double check. Good thing age is just a number for the 32nd youngest team in the league.
24. Panthers -3 4-9 I'm not sure where the Panthers go from here. Coach Rhule has said that he isn't going to do the team and fans a disservice by beginning to evaluate players, which means that we're going to see more of Teddy Bridgewater (who is 0-7 in one score games this season) crumble at the end of the game. Playing at Lambeau in primetime in December is one of the hardest things a team can do, and it's not going to be an easy test for the Panthers, who so far have shown that they can't win close games, nor can they defend the pass (23rd in passing defense). It's going to be tough sledding, but hopefully Jeremy Chinn can continue his torrid pace and run his way into DROY.
25. Eagles +3 4-8-1 Jalen Hurts delivered the spark the Eagles needed to upset the Saints and spread 'quarterback controversy' all over the city of brotherly love. While the season remains a disappointment, the dual running threat of Hurts and Sanders could be interesting to watch going forward, and the NFC Least remains wide-open with 2 divisional games left on the 2020 menu.
26. Lions -1 5-8 Even with a loss, Interim HC Darrell Bevell showed that his Lions are here to compete. This game was never out of hands, and the Lions kept it close the entire time. There are still plenty of woes on Defense, but the Offense continued to ball out as expected. With two TD's coming from the run game (Swift and Kerryon), there is already something to look forward to next year. Lately the team has been able to trust the run on short yardage and redzone carries and it has helped the team with consistency in the red zone. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers is a QB that can carve up a weak secondary... so that didn't go great. There's around a 1% chance of the Lions getting a playoff spot, not unheard of, but it'll be tough if Stafford's injury progresses and we lose him for the season. #DefendTheDen
27. Chargers -- 4-9 First of all, props to Falcons Twitter for this gem before the game, and it played out exactly as expected. Both teams did their best to try giving it away at the end, but the Chargers ended up on the winning side this time around. The Chargers had their hiccups again but there were improvements across the board; Justin Herbert's 81.8% completion percentage is his highest of the season, the defense came away with 3 INTs, and special teams probably had their best day. The Chargers get a short week before a Thursday Night tilt in Las Vegas.
28. Texans -4 4-9 The Texans are lucky that Paxton is the Texas AG, otherwise they would have had the biggest blowout loss in the state this past week.
29. Cowboys -- 4-9 The Red Rifle won his revenge game, the defense forced multiple turnovers, and the Bengals were held to 3.4 yards per carry. All that, and the Cowboys still come out of the week with a top 5 draft pick. Honestly, Sunday couldn't have gone better. Now, the only question is whether this was the team turning the corner and the beginning of a strong finish to the season, or this was just a perfect moment of the Cowboys finding a shittier team with serious injuries issues and just doing what should happen in that scenario.
30. Bengals -- 2-10-1 Giovani Bernard hadn't fumbled since 2013 before his 1st quarter fumble on Sunday. So what does he get for his troubles? A spot on the bench thanks to Zac Taylor. Giovani was one of the only veterans who spoke out in behalf of Taylor and the current coaches when multiple articles were released with "sources" saying that Taylor had lost the locker room last month. You have to question the benching for multiple reasons as the directionless Bengals continue to flounder to blowout losses. Just another reason why this should be Zac Taylor's last season as head coach in Cincinnati.
31. Jaguars -- 1-12 This one felt more as expected. Perhaps it was in former GM Dave Caldwell's plans— no, wait, hear me out. Adjusting tinfoil hat; Based on the moves taken this offseason to seemingly dump talent from the Jaguars in attempt to amass more draft picks, perhaps the former front office of the Jaguars were banking on this season not being played, due to pandemic reasons. Sure, this may sound farfetched, but I'd like to hear a more reasonable explanation for fielding such a disaster as this team, this season.
32. Jets -- 0-13 The Jets have now scored on 7 consecutive opening drives, the longest streak in the NFL. After climbing to an early 3-0 lead, I watched Peter Sawkins make an excellent cranachan custard slice on The Great British Bake Off.
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Here's an in-depth breakdown of Super Bowl LV:

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We have made it! All 256 regular season and – since this year – twelve playoff games are in the books and there is just one matchup left to decide who will be crowned NFL champions. There are so many storylines leading up to the big game – the GOAT Tom Brady versus the kid Patrick Mahomes, two of the all-time great tight-ends on either side of the ball wearing number 87, the Buccaneers becoming the first ever team to host a Super Bowl in their home stadium, Andy Reid after all this time of coming up short, potentially winning back-to-back titles, while Bruce Arians is looking to finally get his first ring as a head coach and potentially becoming the oldest one to earn one in history, and many others.
As I do every year, I wanted to give a detailed look ahead to the big game, where I break down who these teams are, kind of how they got here and how they match up against each other. To do so I put together analysis of each offense and defense, plus where each could have the advantage, then I take a look back at when these two teams first met back in week 12, explain what they have and/or should have learned from it, give you an X-factor on either side of the ball for both and finally hand out my score prediction, while explaining what I believe will happen.
Let’s dive into it!
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Buccaneers offense vs. Chiefs defense:

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The Tampa Bay offense has been transitioning throughout the season. Early on it was Bruce Arians’ system with a lot of 12 and even 13 personnel, trying to establish a gap-scheme power run game and taking play-action shots off it from under center. And then a second offense was kind of implemented, which was more suited to what Tom Brady was used to in New England, where they spread the field and attack defenses with the quick game. However, it really was two separate playbooks almost, that they worked in. I think we have seen a little more of a symbiotic relationship, which I believe Byron Leftwich has had a big role in putting together. They motion their backs in and out or use their receivers as pre-snap coverage indicators at a much higher rate, letting Brady be surgical in the quick passing game, but still attacking vertically and using Gronk and the tight-ends as that extra in-line blocker to get enough time, because Brady still more than enough juice in his arm to push the ball down the field. Since week ten, Cameron Brate has also played about 41 percent of the snaps and I believe he gives them more versatility in what they can be from two tight-end personnel, since he can basically be a big slot for them. Their receiving corp as a whole offers a lot of versatility, whether it’s Mike Evans moving more into the slot this season, Antonio Brown being able to line up at any of the receiver spots or specialists like Scotty Miller to attack down the field.
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It’s a well-established narrative that if you can get to Tom Brady early, he becomes a much less effective passer and if you look at the five games, that they have come up short in 2020 (Saints twice, Bears, Rams and Chiefs), they have lost the battle up front offensively. Since their week 13 bye, following their last loss to Kansas City (including the playoffs), they have gone undefeated whilst averaging 34.3 points per game, with at least 30 in all three postseason battles. Looking at those games in particular, the defense was dominant at New Orleans and set up scoring opportunities directly, but against Washington and Green Bay, they completed a combined 11 passes of 20+ yards. So it is still very much about the big plays through the air (finished top three in 20+ and 40+ yard passes), but the efficiency of this offense has really gone up to a different level. At Detroit they were so dominant that Brady sat out the entire second half, then they scored on all but one of their possessions against Atlanta and now over this three-game road playoff run, they have had only three combined three-and-outs and turnovers in each of them. A big key to that has been the Bucs offensive line keeping Brady clean, as he has gotten sacked only 11 times over their active seven-game win streak and just once in all but two of those contests. To go with having better solutions to beat the blitz in their system.
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https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/5o8inlufbif61/player
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Unlike a lot of modern NFL offenses, that have incorporated more RPO elements and try to create numbers advantages in the run game with spread sets, Bruce Arians still brings that old-school flair with multiple tight-end sets and the power run game. There’s not a lot of wide zone blocking, but rather they create vertical movement at the point of attack with a heavy dose of duo, get those big offensive linemen on the move on toss plays and then I love watching those receivers get involved as blockers in the box – especially Chris Godwin, who they seriously have leading up in the hole or trapping three-techniques. When they run play-action off those looks, they use a lot of seven- and eight-man protections and try to hit defenses over the top, whether it’s deep crossers and posts or straight go routes down the sideline. As much success as they have with that recipe, when you look at the analytics, their tendency to run the ball on early downs shows there’s plenty of improvement in terms of efficiency, which is something I want to see them do in this game, to not get behind the chains and allow the Chiefs defense to be as creative on third down. When they go into shotgun and spread the field more, they look for ways to attack the middle of the field with their inside receivers primarily and when they see one-on-one on the outside with Mike Evans or Antonio Brown, they will take their shots. Double-moves are a large ingredient to what they do, especially out-and-up routes.
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For the Chiefs defense, they looked like they had carried over that momentum from last year’s Super Bowl run into 2020, not giving up more than 20 points in any of their first four games. In week five, the Raiders out of nowhere exploded for 40 points and handed them their only loss outside of week 17, when they rested several starters, before having three more great showings at Buffalo, Denver and then hosting the Jets. But since then, they have allowed at least 24 points in six of their final eight games. Part of that negative turnaround was the injuries they have had in the secondary and the lack of takeaways (one per game). The biggest piece however has been their inability to keep teams out of the end-zone when they got close. Looking at the whole regular season, no other team has allowed their opponents to create a higher rate of their red-zone trips into touchdowns (74.1%). That’s why so many of their games stayed close deep into the fourth quarter, which I’ll get to more in a little bit. When you look into play-calling, you can see that they played a lot more zone-coverage and rushed only four or five, because they simply didn’t have the guys their could trust to cover in man. Outside of one game, where they felt like they had a great feel for the opposing route-patterns, which I’ll get to soon.
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Yet, once again, that unit has stepped up in the postseason and the two things that stand out to me are defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s brilliant game-planning and their ability to stop one-dimensional offenses. When I look at what they did against the Browns, if you take away one 23-yard burst from Nick Chubb, Cleveland’s elite running back duo was held to 78 yards on 18 carries, as Spagnuolo gave their opponents a lot of looks that they didn’t want to run into and then had a safety drop out of the box late. Then in the AFC title game, to take away Buffalo’s dynamic passing offense (which ranked top three in all major categories), they played a lot of cover-two and two-man, where their DBs pressed the hell out of the Bills receivers and then they played a lot of different versions of those two-high shells, like invert cover-two or bringing Tyrann Mathieu down as the MIKE in Tampa-two basically, which forced Josh Allen to hold onto the ball. What I can promise you is that they aren’t afraid of bringing heavy pressure and then having their coverage defenders well-schooled in the concepts they should focus on taking away primarily while the Honeybadger is often allowed to move pretty freely as the robber. Frank Clark hasn’t quite lived up to his contract, but he has had big moments in the playoffs these last two years, Chris Jones is one of the most disruptive interior D-linemen in the game, who they can move all over the line, and they have several big bodies they can rotate through to stay fresh and eat double-teams.
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Chiefs offense vs. Bucs defense:

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As much as we all love the Kansas City offense and we see them as this unit that blows us away with flashy play-designs and throws over the top, they have really been alternating their approach over the course of the season as well. When you go all the way back to their season-opener against the Texans, you see that they used more of a West Coast and RPO-oriented attack to punish a defense that played a lot of soft zones and invited them to throw the ball short. However, two weeks later at Baltimore, they were destroying the Ravens’ single-high safety and man-coverage principles by letting their speedy receivers streak down the field and call double-moves at 15+ yards of depth. Then three weeks after that, when they found themselves in a rainy setting at Buffalo against a soft interior run defense, they pounded the ball 46 times for almost 250 yards on the ground. So they have shown the ability to adapt to their opponents. However, with several injuries on the offensive line – most notably a turnstile at left guard and those two tackles, which will now both be out for the Super Bowl – and opposing defenses taking the approach of using a lot more split-safety looks and trying to take away the big play, they have turned back into being more methodical in their plan and putting together long drives. In the AFC Championship game in particular, with Patrick Mahomes coming off a turf toe injury, their gameplan and drive charts look almost like what they used to with Alex Smith, in terms of the West Coast designs and those glance or slant routes on the backside of RPO concepts.
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When you look at this KC offense, they have had large stretches of getting static in games and as great as they are at moving the ball between the 20s, they are only 14th league-wide in red-zone touchdown percentage (61%). Some people may not realize this, but since their week eight blowout win over the Jets, they had not won a game by more than six points until the AFC title game. That is due to a combination of tendency to start slow, their poor red-zone efficiency and the inability to run the ball consistently with all the movement they have had on the O-line, having rushed for 135+ yards just three times all season. With that being said, Darrell Williams has been a big factor as a power runner these playoff and rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be back to full health. In addition to that, they find other ways to put the ball in the hands of their skill-players quickly, using the speed of their receiving crew on bubbles and speed sweeps, to go along with well-designed longer-developing screens, such as the double swing-fake and then middle screen to Travis Kelce. They also use their star tight-end quite a bit on those power shovels in short-yardage situations and I believe their most effective run play is the speed option, because of the way Mahomes can manipulate that end-man at the line.
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While I have seen them run anything from 23 personnel to going empty with Kelce detached from the line (so basically a five-wide situation), there are a few things the Chiefs love to run. Their go-to formation is a three-by-one set with Kelce as the single receiver, mostly flexed out wide, but also in-line. In 2019 they ran three verticals from that trips side and then had Kelce on a shallow crosser over and over again. This year they still run it quite a bit, but they let the tight-end run more corner or curl routes, to allow inside receivers from the other side attack the middle of the field and isolate their backs against the linebackers, in addition to running power that way. And then they motion someone like Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman across, which for the most part gets opposing defense to move into two-high coverages and play off. So if KC runs either one up the seams, there’s usually a ton of space underneath. The two things that take this offense to the next level however, are trick plays and off-script production. What makes Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy great is not only their ability to exploit defensive schemes, but they are so creative and don’t shy away from throwing reverse passes, underhand shovels to their fullback or digging up tape from the 1948 Rose Bowl. And then there’s all the thing Mahomes can do off script. That guy is so slippery to extend plays while continuing to look downfield and his pass-catchers are so adept at adjusting on the fly and finding the open areas, especially that sixth sense-like connection he has with Kelce.
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I have been higher on the Bucs defense for pretty much the entire year, which was really up and down for them as a unit. They have had moments of dominance, like keeping three straight opponents to under 50 rushing yards each or holding Green Bay’s number-one ranked offense to just 10 points in their regular season meeting, but they also gave up a combined 72 points in their first two meetings with the Saints and got lit up for over 450 yards through the air when hosting these same Chiefs back in week 12 (I’ll analyze that matchup in detail in our next segment). During this playoff run however, they have really stepped up in big moments to get them to this point. Whether it’s forcing four turnovers at New Orleans or sacking Aaron Rodgers five times and making a historically great red-zone offense settle for a couple of chip-shot field goals at Green Bay. When you look at their duo of edge rushers, Shaq Barrett is tied for the lead-league in QB hurries (24) and only three players in the NFL (all DBs) have forced more turnovers than Jason Pierre-Paul (six). Then they have the most dynamic linebacker tandem in all of football, which are heavily involved in their pressure packages and make it nearly impossible to get outside the tackle box in the run game, and now with Vita Vea back in the lineup, they have a wall on the inside that nobody can run on consistently. That’s how they finished the regular season as the clear number one run defense in the league. The secondary has been the problem child at times, especially when defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has put them in pure man-coverage, but by moving their safeties around more to bracket and help in certain areas of the field, they have really improved in that department.
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Bowles is an aggressive play-caller by nature and they have created a lot of problems for opposing offenses by bringing one more than you can block (blitzed on 39% of plays). It has bitten them in their behind at times as well, but from what I have seen on tape, they have been more strategic in how they use it. Especially on third downs, I love how they have used their safeties as moving pieces, having them key on certain areas of the field or defending the sticks. In the NFC Championship game for example, one of the biggest plays of the afternoon was that Aaron Jones fumble at the start of the second half, when the Packers thought they had defeated the man-coverage with a shallow crosser to Jones whilst picking the underneath coverage, but Jordan Whitehead raced up from the other side of the field and jarred the ball loose just as the RB tried to turn upfield and convert on third down. That willingness to drive on routes is also apparent when they run quarters coverage and you see Whitehead and rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. break on the ball, looking to take somebody’s head off, while they are also heavily involved in their blitz packages. That combined with those guys coming off the edges, Ndamokung as a bully on the inside and a pretty unknown contributor in William Gholston has them ranking in the top five in sacks, pressure percentage, turnovers and tackles for loss.
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Examining the first matchup:

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Like I already mentioned, these two teams met back in week 12. The Chiefs jumped out to an early 17-0 lead in the first quarter, with Tyreek Hill racking up over 200 receiving yards over those 15 minutes already and the Bucs offense having just one combined first down over the first four possessions. Kansas City was in the red-zone once more mid-way through the second quarter, but a Shaquille Barrett strip-sack gave Brady & company the ball with some life and they were able to go on the board. That really got things to click and they fought their way back to being down only three, despite a couple of interceptions for Tampa Bay’s QB killing drives, because after scoring a touchdown on their initial try for the Chiefs, the Bucs defense really stepped up and held their opponents scoreless the rest of the way. However, Mahomes and Hill were able to run down the final four minutes and close the game, not giving Brady’s troops another chance, as they were coming off consecutive TD drives at the end, to secure a 27-24 victory.
While the Chiefs certainly took their foot off the gas pedal and tried to run the ball more, which KC outside of what Mahomes did, rushed for only 59 yards on 16 carries, I really thought this was a breaking point for Tampa Bay as a team. The offense started finding a groove and the only two drives that didn’t result in points from that final first half possession on, ended in picks. The defense on the other hand adjusted what they were doing in coverage and held that explosive KC attack to just ten points through the final three quarters. So while I think the result may be a little deceiving and the Chiefs could have easily won by double-digits, I look back at this as more of a launching pad for a team that has been the best in the NFC from that point on and now represents that conference in the big game, with a chance to learn from their early mistakes. Here are a few things that really stood out to me when they first met:
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When you look back at the ridiculous first quarter Tyreek Hill had at Tampa Bay, what really stands out is how much he was left one-on-one in coverage, often times with Carlton Davis, who has had a good season in general, but is a bigger corner who ran in the low 4.5s at the combine – no way can he keep up consistently against the fastest man in football. Davis did follow Tyreek for the most part, in particular when he was the single receiver or the #3 in that trips set with Travis Kelce soloed up on the opposite side. And the Chiefs did a great job of creating those one-on-ones with motions, where they moved Kelce in line or forced Davis to trail Hill, when he came across the formation from that trips alignment. Tyreek’s two long touchdown came on a subtle double-move after they motioned Kelce in and then on a streak across the field as the #3 from trips. That opened up the middle of the field later on for Kelce on hook and dig routes. Something else Kansas City did in the first half particularly was using more 12 and even 13 personnel than I had seen from them all season long. They still couldn’t run the ball a lick out of those sets, but they were effective in the passing game when used, especially chipping both those guys off the edges for Tampa, with one of the TEs and the running back.
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https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/8b7dchqzbif61/player
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Tampa Bay called a lot of passing concepts with five-man protections early versus Kansas City bringing an array of blitzes (18 on 42 drop-backs). Especially on third downs, they were able to create at least one free rusher and then they had one or two defenders bailing out to take away the middle of the field. However, the Bucs made some very effective adjustments in the second half with hot-route to defeat those blitzes and putting that “bail defender” I will call it here in a bind, with a seam and spot route underneath for example. Of course the Chiefs still got two interceptions off Brady, that stopped promising drives, but when you look at what went wrong on those plays, first Ronald Jones overset to the outside trying to pick up Tyrann Mathieu off the edge, which led to an underthrown deep ball by Brady that was brought in by Bashaun Breeland along the sideline, as Scotty Miller got pushed out wide on his release, and then Mathieu got an INT of his own, as Mike Evans didn’t recognize the pressure and the ball went off the helmet of a blitzing Daniel Sorensen. In general, they were able to get the ball out quickly – especially to their tight-ends – to take advantage of limited resources in coverage and on the final two drives, when KC brought heat almost every single snap, they were punished for it.
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What each team can take away:

A couple of adjustments that I already saw in the first meeting or that I would like to see for each team would be:
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For the Bucs, the one thing I want to see most is using more dummy counts to show pressure pre-snap and give Brady a clear picture. Whether they try to block it up with the tight-ends and backs in protection or alert the hot read, the more information they can get from a Spagnuolo defense that prides itself on disguising pressures and coverages, they more adept they will be at defeating those. Once they do that, this could turn into a chess match, where the Chiefs show something different intentionally to make Brady kill the original play and then have to pull the ball down anyway, as the picture changes once the snap is off. And something else they should take advantage of is isolating what is a below-average group of linebackers in the passing game. Their RB core isn’t overly impressive in terms of their receiving abilities, especially when you look at the amount of drops we have seen from Leonard Fournette, but maybe they dig LeSean McCoy out more for this matchup and see if he can win on option routes and Tampa actually put AB in the backfield a couple of times in the backfield in their prior meeting, only they ran him downfield on wheel routes.
Defensively I already saw some stuff that I really through quarters two to four, in terms of using their safety tandem to bracket Hill and Kelce on a lot of snaps and on key downs in particular, forcing the ancillary pieces of that offense to beat them. I will mention one of my X-factors and his role in how that “gamble” could end up in the next segment, but those two guys accounted for 55.5 percent of Kansas City’s total passing yardage. So it’s certainly a chance worth taking and if you go with a game-plan, where your two stand-up guys on the second level are more involved in covering space underneath, as Tyreek may be utilized as more of a decoy that runs off the deep coverage, you can eliminate a lot of yardage after the catch, since teams that rush four and play coverage have been the ones giving the Chiefs some issues at times. However, that doesn’t mean that I don’t want the Bucs to not use their linebackers as blitzing threats. They should try to cover up the open gaps with those guys and create one-on-ones across the board, to enable their edge rushers to dominate against KC’s backup tackles. And something the Browns against them a few times, which I really liked, was rushing four or five, but not giving up assets in coverage, as they had somebody drop out to replace those blitzers and still create a free rusher.
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On the Chiefs’ side, I really liked the plan of chipping those two guys off the edges, as I already discussed, with an extra tight-end on the field, and while they are a spread-oriented offense, they had a lot of success when they used 12 personnel and threw the ball out of those looks. Because you can’t cover the whole field and have to take away what Kansas City sends vertically, those TEs and backs are often times all by themselves as they release into the flats. If that happens, like it did in their prior meeting, Mahomes has to take the free yardage and open up the deeper areas of the field again, as the Bucs have to re-adjust. The other thing I can tell you for sure is that the Bucs are obviously terrified of Tyreek burning them deep again and I’m sure there won’t be many chances to just attack their corners in man-coverage for big plays. So if they give Hill a lot soft cushions, they have to repeat what did to the Bills’ Tre’Davious White in terms of getting him the ball quickly on smoke routes and forcing those guys to tackle their electric receiver. While vertical prowess has to be used as a decoy, in terms of putting him in the slot of those three-by-one sets and having him run up the seam, while you attack underneath that. If you get Mecole Hardman one-on-one with their third-best CB on a post-corner route, while the flanker runs a hitch or square-in to bind the guy on the outside, that could be free money.
When I switch to defense, they had a ton of success bringing the blitz and not allowing Brady to step into throws. I would certainly say they were happy with that game-plan and they have reason to feel confident in the guys they have on the back-end, with the way they have showed out so far in the postseason. However, I have now talked about this at length and the Bucs have watched that tape over and over again. There is no way, those guys will be as ill-prepared to counter those pressure packages as they were back in November. Hell, Brady was dicing them up in the fourth quarter and I just detailed how those two picks came about. So Steve Spagnuolo can still bring the heat in certain situations and test Tampa Bay in their ability to pick up the blitz, but he has to be more strategic in how he uses it. The second thing to consider here is how you mask those linebackers, when you decide to utilize them more in coverage. Those players can be very effective as downhill thumpers in the run game, taking on pulling guards and filling holes, but they aren’t great in space. The Raiders in their two matchups against Kansas City had a lot of success attacking that area of the field with crossing routes. Chris Godwin and Gronk would be guys for that task, so maybe if you have them to one side, the opposite linebacker is the one you blitz and you bring down Sorensen or Mathieu to replace him in that hook-area, while looking to pick up anybody working across the field.
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X-factors:

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Buccaneers – Aaron Stinnie & Jamel Dean

I’m not going to give you a name like Scotty Miller here, because at this point, he is more likely to catch at least one deep ball than not. Ronald Jones’ health will be key as well, to give the Bucs that physical one-two punch out of the backfield. However, I’m going with their starting right guard Aaron Stinnie, who just got his first two starts of the year during these playoffs. The Bucs O-line has been dominant over the course of this seven-game win streak, like I already mentioned, holding opponents to just 11 sacks combined in those games and an average of 115 rushing yards during these playoffs, despite some tough competition. Alex Cappa was one of the road-graders on the interior for Tampa and only missed three total snaps throughout the regular season, before fracturing his ankle mid-way through their Wildcard game at Washington. Stinnie has since stepped since then and played pretty well, but he was also responsible for the only sack on Brady in the NFC Championship game at Green Bay, when Kenny Clark went right through him on a bull rush. Well, the challenge will not get any easier, as I’d expect the Chiefs to line up Chris Jones in the B-gap as much as possible and try to exploit that matchup, on passing downs in particular. That’s why it will be crucial for Tampa Bay to stay ahead of the chains, unlike they did in the first matchup, and slow the rush down a little bit. Good thing Stinnie is lined up in-between arguably the top rookie right tackle of 2020 in rookie Tristan Wirfs and one of the better centers in Ryan Jensen, who will be looking to land a rib-shot on the guy over Stinnie, on the snaps that he is uncovered for.
As for the Bucs defense, that whole group of corners will have to step up in a major way, as they hope to slow down this explosive KC passing attack. Obviously, Carlton Davis’ name will come up a whole lot early on during the broadcast, as Tony Romo and Jim Nantz show what Tyreek Hill did to him early on in that week 12 meeting, and I could see Hill be matched up with Sean Murphy-Bunting in the slot a whole lot as well, but since I expect the safety to that side to keep his eyes constantly on him, when he lines up inside and makes it easier to bracket to some degree. Instead, I’m looking at Jamel Dean, who primarily is Tampa Bay’s field-side corner, unless they have Davis travelling with the opposing team’s number one receiver in certain matchups, which I wouldn’t expect, as the Bucs coaches go back to the tape of that first matchup. If Todd Bowles is smart – and from what I’ve seen from his as a coach, as much as aggressiveness may have hurt him at times, he is – he will build on what they did in the second half of that last game, when he used his two safeties to bracket Hill and Kelce almost every snap and forced the rest of that receiving corp to beat them. That puts the spotlight on guys like Sammy Watkins if they line him up more at Z, Demarcus Robinson and others, as those guys will pretty much be one-on-one with Dean. While the coverage numbers would indicate otherwise – in part because he draws the easiest assignments – to me he is the weakest link of this secondary and has been highly vulnerable to double-moves. The Chiefs might be burn him once more on Sunday.
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Chiefs – Andrew Wylie & Juan Thornhill

I thought about going Sammy Watkins here for the Chiefs offense, because he hasn’t suited up for them since week 16 and he hasn’t caught at least five passes in a game since week three, but averaged almost 100 receiving yards during last year’s playoff run. And you should also get accustomed with who wears number 48 for them, because Nick Keizer may have only caught six passes through the regular season, but he has become KC’s TE2 on the depth chart, playing just over a quarter of the snaps, and he could have a key role as an extra protector or chipping those edge rushers. Instead, I’m going with KC’s new starter at right tackle, who was slotted in at RG for all but one game so far. With blindside protector Eric Fisher unfortunately tearing his Achilles late in the AFC title game, Mike Remmers – who originally replaced Mitchell Schwartz on the right end of the line – is now switching sides and Andrew Wylie is sliding one spot outside. And he will face a tough task, after only having started one game on the edge against the Saints and now getting a heavy load of Shaq Barrett, who primarily rushed off that side. Let’s see if Wylie has the quickness in his kick-slide to counter Barrett’s speed and if the latter can get him on a dip-maneuver, like he beat Eric Fisher for a strip-sack on when these two teams last met. Steven Wisniewski will step in at Wylie’s original spot, but he has been one of the most dependable veteran linemen of the last decade in my opinion.
Defensively, I’m looking at the guy who missed Kansas City’s Super Bowl run last year, after an excellent rookie campaign. Their secondary was the star of the show against Buffalo, to send them to the Super Bowl, by disrupting route patterns at the line of scrimmage and not allowing receivers to separate late. A big reason they felt comfortable doing that was their safety tandem, with Tyrann Mathieu being in more of a robber role and dropping down in Tampa-2, to go along with the rangy Juan Thornhill, who broke up four passes and nearly picked off two of them. Steve Spagnuolo has those safeties doing a ton of late rotations, bailing Daniel Sorensen out for two-high shells, Honeybadger turning into a freely roaming robber and often times Thornhill ending up as the deep middle safety. As a single-high defender, he makes it almost impossible to push the ball down the hashes and he has the ability to make plays outside numbers. That will be crucial against all the deep balls Tampa Bay attempts and if one of those corners loses Mike Evans or Antonio Brown off the line by lunging in press, he could be the guy who decides if there will be a 40+ yard gain or maybe even an interception, if Brady puts too much air under the ball and tries to give his receiver time to track it. I can’t wait to watch that chess game between the Chiefs’ second-year safety and the ultimate student of the game in Brady, who will try to manipulate him with his eyes and body language, in order to keep the defender away from where he wants to go with the ball.
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Prediction:

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On paper, the Bucs have the better and healthier roster at this moment. You look at the offensive line in particular, where they still have four of their day one starters, while the Chiefs’ only full-time starter at his original position is center Austin Reiter and they will have two guys at those tackle spots, that have barely never played there for Kansas City. In terms of pass-catchers, it’s hard to argue that you could put anybody above the Chiefs group of track stars, but you don’t need a full hand to count off the teams that you would put ahead of the Bucs. There is also a pretty clear advantage on the defensive line for the home team, when you look at them being top three in pressure percentage, while KC is outside the top ten. And while I would give the Chiefs the nod in terms of the back-end, seeing how they have stepped up so far this postseason at full health, the Bucs’ group has made plenty of plays to take them to the Super Bowl and linebacker is not even a competition, watching Devin White and Lavonte David fly around the field. And of course, they have the number one rush defense, while the Chiefs rank 21st, and they are both average at running the ball themselves.
Schematically, Tampa certainly has to make some adjustments, as I have already discussed in length, having solutions for the blitz packages Steve Spagnuolo will throw at them and not allowing the Chiefs two main weapons to beat them. Right now, I give the clear advantage to the reigning champs when it comes to the coaching staffs and as great as Brady has been for two decades now and the how clutch he has been on the game’s biggest stage, we may be witnessing the one guy, who has a chance of dethroning him one day as the GOAT. Spags has a proven track record of success against Brady and I’m sure Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy have been in the lab, cooking up new things to throw at the Bucs defense, figuring out ways to score points all four quarters, but in the end it comes down to Patrick Mahomes being able to make plays nobody else in football can. Shaq Barrett and JPP could have a field day against these two backup tackles and I think Todd Bowles will also have a couple of things up his sleeves that the Chiefs haven’t seen, but last year’s Super Bowl MVP is the ultimate equalizer. He will shake out of a sack and find Kelce for a huge third-down conversion and he will have another like twelve-step drop and fire a deep ball off his back-foot to break Tampa’s neck.
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Chiefs 34 – Bucs 28

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So give me the Chiefs here and I’ll take the chalk with Mahomes earning MVP honors, winning back-to-back titles and setting the foundation for a potential dynasty in Kansas City.
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If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece!
Also make sure to check out my video on the ten biggest questions heading into Super Bowl LV!
submitted by hallach_halil to nfl [link] [comments]

Trey Lance versus Zach Wilson

Setting the Stage for the 2021 Draft

It's time to start looking forward to the 2021 NFL Draft now that we are officially eliminated from the postseason AND are picking at #4 (as of right now. I don't expect that to change much, especially given our final two opponents, the Washington Football Team and New Orleans, will be looking for either a division crown or an outside shot at the #1 seed in the playoffs). The big question surrounding who we should pick will be swirling for a while, with people throwing out Micah Parsons or Pat Surtain II. I don't think, however, that we will be picking anything other than a QB. Coach Rhule has already criticized Teddy a couple of times already.
As I've said before, I believe the plan all along was to let Teddy take the reins this year so that the team would have some veteran leadership, and then see where he guided us. Then, in 2021, the plan was always to take a QB in either the 1st or 2nd round, and let that QB sit behind Teddy for the majority of the 2021 season, and then cut ties with Teddy at the end of 2021 and let the drafted QB take over going into the 2022 season. (This is why Teddy's contract has a $21m savings if we release him after the 2021 season.)

The 2021 Draft Forecast

The 2021 Draft is unique because it is THE QB Draft. Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields have always been the two favorites going into season, much the same way Andrew Luck and RGIII were obvious #1 and #2 in the QB prospect rankings in 2011. But beyond that, this year there is a load of talent in the 2nd and 3rd tiers of QBs that could all make franchise QBs. Trey Lance was always considered the "third wheel" of the group, and Zach Wilson was seen as the back-end of the 1st round guy. He's obviously moved up with stellar play, but so have guys like Mac Jones.
Now that we're picking 4th, I've noticed some posters say we should try and trade up to #2 and get Fields. This, should be, out of the question. The Draft Trade Value Chart is still very much a baseline for teams to use, even though it is now over 3 decades old. Looking at the Draft Value Chart, the #2 pick is worth 2649 points. That is our destination. Our #4 pick is worth only 2297, which puts us almost 400 total points behind the #2 spot. To make up that ground, we would need to likely give up our 3rd round pick to move up as well. Normally that's not a huge deal, but the problem here is that this Draft is incredibly lopsided towards QBs, which pushes every other position down the board. There are LOTS of LT prospects in the Draft that can be had in the 30-38 range (Leatherwood, Radunz, Christensen, Little, etc.) and even more LB prospects to be found in the 50-70 range (Werner, Surratt, Collins, Robertson, etc.). We can't risk that range of picks moving up when there's so much other value on the table later on.
With all of that being said, the focus here is on Trey Lance versus Zach Wilson. My guess is that most of you have only heard the name or saw highlights of Trey Lance, and possibly even Zach Wilson. I've been fortunate enough to watch a ton of NDSU games, and have been able to watch Zach Wilson play this year since the FCS has taken the Fall off, and Lance is preparing for the NFL Draft (sans one showcase game, but we'll get to that).

The Prospects: Trey Lance

Height: 6'4 (listed, will probably be closer to 6'3 1/2)
Weight: 225lbs (listed, though he'll probably weigh in around 220)
Age: 20 (will turn 21 right after the Draft)
2020 Stats: 15-30/149 yards/2 TDs/1 INT | 15 rushes/143 yards/2TDs
Highlights: Here you go
Pro Comparison: Deshaun Watson
(Before I start, here's a cool little video from College Gameday that ESPN did earlier this year.)
The numbers for Trey Lance seem weird when looking at them objectively. Only played in one game this year, and played an extremely odd game. But there's more to Trey than just his numbers this season. First, NDSU only played one game this Fall, due to the FCS sitting out the Fall sports program and moving to Spring. His 2019 numbers are eye-popping, however.
192-287/2786 yards/28 TDs/0 INT | 169 rushes/1100 yards/14 TDs
Those numbers are absolutely insane. Sure, they come against FCS teams, but even still, he's a man amongst boys.
There are times when it looks like Trey Lance is already an NFL QB. He calls his plays from the huddle, he calls his own protections from under center at the LoS, and then takes his snaps from under center and operates out of either an I-formation or a single back set a majority of the time. In fact, read this excerpt from ESPN about how Lance approaches the gameplan of football.
During game weeks, Lance studies hours of tape in preparation. On Mondays, he reviews the opponents' overall schemes; Tuesdays are for third down; Wednesdays for red zone; and Thursdays for two-minute offense. On Fridays, after cutting film the previous day, Lance presents the game plan to his receivers, telling them where they need to be in particular concepts.
That's right, Lance draws up his own gameplans for his receivers and their routes. So, yes, the NDSU offense does, at times, look like guys are being schemed just absolutely wide open, while Lance just throws strike after strike down the field. But it's Lance who is drawing up those concepts to get those guys free. He understands football at a level that most 20 year olds cannot even begin to process. Not even looking at his raw, God-given talents and athleticism, he understands football. A lot of the questions for players when they come out of college is: "can this guy operate in the NFL from a spread offense?" Even one of the major questions about Cam was, has he ever called plays in the huddle? Well, that didn't really matter in the grand scheme of things, but it is a question. Lance not only calls the plays from the huddle, he's responsible for concepts in each phase, whether it be their hurry up offense, their red zone offense, etc.
This is where the comparison to Deshaun Watson comes in. Yes, he's a mobile QB with a massive arm that can throw the ball anywhere on the field. But it's more about how intelligent he is as a QB, understanding the flow and motion of a game better than his peers.
There are obviously negatives to his game. He's not the perfect, polished QB that Trevor is, obviously. Sometimes Trey tries to rely on his athleticism to make big plays. Whether that's heaving the ball downfield off his back foot or throwing while fading to his right (something Cam had significant problems with throughout his career), Trey will need to learn to set his feet and not rely on being more athletic than everyone because, honestly, he's not more athletic than everyone in the NFL. This also comes into play when he's running the ball. Yes, Trey is fast. Like, VERY fast. I would say he ends up running a 4.5 - 4.6 40 time. But there are times when he lowers his shoulder for a boom to truck players. And he does! At least, in the FCS he does. In the NFL, he's going to have a rough time if he tries to just bulldoze someone like Lavonte David, for example.
All-in-all, Trey is my favorite QB for us in the NFL Draft. I think he has skills that are far beyond his years. He's smart, athletic, and knows football. He doesn't rely on a spread to just dominate FCS teams with up-tempo. Instead, he can slow the game down, then just accelerate past you once you've fallen into a lull. But he does need work, and I think sitting behind Teddy for a year will give him insight into the game of football that would be invaluable. And I don't mean this negatively: Teddy could teach him how to be a pro and take what is given to you, even if that means passing for 3 or 4 yards at a time. Not every play has to be a 40 yard moon shot.
Trey is also young enough that he could be our starting QB for the next 15 years if it turned out right. Think about this: Trey won't be 21 until after the Draft. That means in a decade, he'll only be 31. That's insane.

The Prospects: Zach Wilson

Height: 6'3 (listed, though he may be a true 6'3)
Weight: 210lbs (listed, though I'm not sure how I feel about that. He could bulk up for the Draft to around 215 or 220.)
Age: 21 (will turn 22 right after before the preseason begins)
2020 Stats: 221-302/3267 yards/30 TDs/3 INTs | 65 rushes/242 yards/8TDs
Highlights: Here you go
Pro Comparison: A much better Jimmy G
Zach Wilson is someone you've definitely heard of by this point. He has risen up the Draft boards, and, before the loss to Coastal, was rising up as a Heisman dark horse. Before this season, there was talk about Zach possibly hitting the back end of round 1, maybe even early round 2, but there were also some serious questions about his health, which I feel like we should start out with.
Zach has had shoulder surgery on his throwing shoulder from an injury sustained in high school. He said that the injury would feel horrible on Mondays after games. The surgery could help clear that up, and there's obviously no signs of any injuries when he's throwing quick strikes down the field. But, however, even bigger than that is that he has a torn labrum in his left shoulder that will need to be worked on. From that same interview:
Wilson, in his interview with BYU Sports Nation, added that he also has a torn labrum in his left shoulder that will eventually require surgery. He said he has been limited in his workouts, including not being able to bench press, but does a lot of workouts with dumbbells and resistance bands, typical to the routine of a healthy quarterback.
Not being able to lift is a big deal, though not terrible for a QB. As long as he is doing resistance training, he should be good. There's still some chances that he won't be able to participate in the bench press workout at the Draft, which could see some teams waver on him.
What does Zach do well to make up for the injury concerns, though? Well, for one, he throws at almost every arm angle. He has the ability to lower his shoulder and throw those weird, quick strike, side-arm pitcher style throws. He can move in the pocket while throwing accurately downfield. The "Moving Parallelogram" is a hard concept for QBs to run often, because it requires great feetwork and accuracy on the move. Zach Wilson does it with ease, and does it consistently. This is where the big comparison to Jimmy G comes from. Jimmy is great at shuffling his feet, moving out into space, and getting the "Moving Parallelogram" concepts to work to his advantage.
Here's the thing with Zach Wilson versus Trey Lance in the grand scheme of things. Trey is a dominant force athletically, being able to do everything and see everything... but the knock is it's against FCS teams. Zach has been doing this against the P5 teams consistently. He's played against Washington, USC, Utah, etc., and, though he does struggle in some of those games, he still has shown that he's tough and can play through pain and injury to get the job done. That's something that Coach Rhule has expressed happiness with, especially when it came to DJackson this year. Being tough and fighting through injury is laudable.
Will Zach need to sit for a half a season/a season to prepare like Trey? Yeah, I think he will. I think that Zach needs to learn how to make progressions from an NFL offense. It's important to note here that BYU runs a variant offense, running through the spread with motion, under center, 4 right sets, etc. And while Zach's mechanics are very good, I think that he needs to learn how to be consistent against some of the top level teams from an NFL offense. Make reads out of the spread and understand coverages and concepts.
Here's a really cool video featuring Zach's family, interviewing him on toughness and how determined Zach is to succeed. One thing that I really took away from this is that Zach has taken the time to consistently work with John Beck on his mechanics, and John Beck is a great example to follow. He's someone who has taken a path through the NFL, to the CFL, and has seen a myriad of offenses come and go. That's awesome to see that he's taking it seriously, and not just saying "well, I'm the starting QB of BYU, so I've got this in the bag."
submitted by knave_of_knives to panthers [link] [comments]

[OC] Leftwich Unlocks Offense, Brady Remains Surgical In 17 Pt Comeback - Week 15 Offensive Breakdown

Whew, what a win!
I'm going to review every offensive drive and include a ton of gifs for those who care to go through as many plays as possible. For everyone else, I’ll begin with a summary, and I hope you enjoy clicking through the few plays you’re interested in.
 
Summary
 
 
1st Possession
 
1st & 10: good start with an easy play taking advantage of off coverage. Nice block by Godwin, too
2nd & 4: Falcons come out in cover 3 and Bucs counter perfectly with a flood concept. Nice separation from Brate againt a LB.
1st & 10: Falcons are playing cover 1 robber with tight coverage. Brady reads the HOSS concept, which is just a hitch/seam combination, on the left. In what has been a theme in this offence, Godwin doesn't adjust his route to an outside release. Against single high man coverage, ideally Godwin would have released outside and pushed up the sideline to create separation from the middle safety. I think these issues come from how these concepts are taught/coached, not because players aren't reading things right. Brady reads the fade then throws it away. He could've potentially tossed it up to Evans, but the coverage is there and the risk reward is terrible on this play (i.e. throwing a jump ball where you either gain 5 yards or get picked). I also have no idea what the Bucs pre snap check system is like, but it would be nice if they could get to a rub combination against this man look where both corners are lined up on the same level.
2nd & 10: it's confusing how poorly the Bucs have done on these HB screens throughout the season. The DB reads this perfectly and blows up the play. This is the play that killed the drive, despite strong execution before this.
3rd & 18: 3 man rush with all coverage players at the sticks. Easy screen pass to improve field position.
 
2nd Possession
 
1st & 10: Bucs come out with six offensive linemen and one tight end creating a loaded box. Why create this look to run on 1st down? Why play this personnel package? I'd understand it on 2nd & short where you only need a short gain and can run or use play action. But, why not play 11 personnel and spread it out to create lighter boxes, where you can run, pass, play fake, whatever? Unsurprisingly, the run up the gut gains just 1 yard.
2nd & 9: Falcons show a single high look pre snap that rotates into a 2 high zone (middle field open) post snap. Brady reads this well and knows that the inside player on the snag route will be open. This spacing concept has been a staple in this Bucs offence.
3rd & 1: outside pitch for 2 yards
1st & 10: 1 yard run up the middle. There's nothing there.
2nd & 9: same spacing concept again. Falcons play a single high zone this time (middle field closed), and consequently, Brady attacks outside. It only gained 2 yards, but it's not a bad idea to give Scotty an opportunity in space outside to make a play.
3rd & 7: Falcons play a single high man blitz. Nice pass protection and good pick up by McCoy. AB was the best option on this vs this look, but the coverage was great so Brady throws it low and away. Either AB makes a play or no one gets it. Give credit to the Falcons for this one.
 
3rd Possession
 
1st & 10: 6 offensive linemen again. Bus call play action against this zone blitz, which should be a favourable situation. However, Josh Wells gets destroyed on the offensive line and gives the offence no chance on this play. Credit to Fournette for a good block.
2nd & 10: A simple but effective play from the Bucs that they use a lot where they have double slants on one side and a slant/flat combination on the other. In general, the plan here is to use the double slants vs 2 high looks and to use the slant/flat combo against 1 high looks. The Falcons show single high pre before rotating into a cover 2 man post, so Brady attacks inside. Great catch and separation by Evans.
3rd & 3: terrible pass protection against a 4 man rush.
 
4th Possession
 
1st & 10: Run for 3 yards. Tight formation, loaded box. Again, why create this look?
2nd & 7: single high zone blitz from the Falcons. Great hot route execution here between Brady and Gronk. Gronk gets his head around quick on the flat route for an easy gain of 7.
1st & 10: 11 personnel and play action? Oh my! Excellent design and call. This play not working is solely on Brady. This is an easy throw.
2nd & 10: Bucs have been using this 3x1 a lot lately to isolate either Evans or Gronk. I asked Jon Ledyard about this during Sunday’s Pewter Report podcast, and he said this was frequently used last season but had been reduced this year as Evans played more snaps from the slot. With AB and Godwin being better inside receivers, I like the idea of these formations. Brady throws a beautiful pass and puts it right on Evans’ face on this out route. This is a much more difficult throw than the previous play, and you can't make this throw without a strong arm.
1st & 10: Another play action pass where the offensive line gives them no chance. Pass pro HAS to be better, but I'm liking the play calling. This is a nit pick, but we see a few of these "soft" fakes throughout the game. I'd rather Brady/the play design create a harder fake, but, I'm happy to take it.
2nd & 10: I'm normally not a fan of runs on 2nd and long, but I like what Leftwich did here. They spread it out with 11 personnel to create a light box and then call a draw play. There's a hole here, and the situation created is relatively favourable (this is what I want them to do more on 1st down runs!). Vaughn just falls down from light contact, and that's not on the play callers.
3rd & 9: the blitz pick up is just terrible here. Falcons show man pre snap before rotating to a zone coverage. Brady could've gotten the ball to Evans for a 1st down if the pass protection didn't give a literal free path for the rusher to the QB.
 
5th Possession
 
Kneel down
 
End of 1st Half
 
6th Possession
 
1st & 10: beautiful play action design against the Falcons cover 1 robber. The LB bites on the play fake which creates a huge opening over the middle for an easy pass to AB for 20 yards. Great stuff.
1st & 10: another play action! Nice design. Brady throws off a poor platform, and the throw was mediocre, but Evans needs to complete this catch.
2nd & 10: Falcons again playing cover 1 robber. The LB brackets Gronk which creates a window for a pass to Brate. Solid execution all around.
1st & 10: this is obviously a good result for a 9 yard gain, but I question the process. There's not a great opportunity/gap here, and you can't expect a huge push like this every time. By no means am I saying never run on 1st down, but I don't think the rush frequency needs to be anywhere near as high as coaches think it does in order for defences to respect the run and for play action to work. What's the right frequency? No one knows right now.
2nd & 1: solid run up the middle in a short yardage situation to pick up the first.
1st & 10: play action with a double post concept against 2 high man coverage, which is a great schematic matchup for the Bucs. This is one of the few coverages against which play action does nothing, but I like keeping the fake because you don't know for sure that it's not a disguised zone, or even cover 1 man (against which you can make the LB bite). Awesome throw and catch. Nice pass protection from Fournette, too.
1st & Goal: easy TD on the run
 
7th Possession
 
1st & 10: 3 man route concept off of play action against the Falcons zone. Simply need better pass protection here. Brady senses pressure and throws the ball away at Gronk's feet. With better protection, he might've been able to work his read over to Godwin.
2nd & 10: the Bucs, again, call the double slant and slant/flat combination. This time the Falcons are playing single high man, so Brady works the slant/flat. Again, a simple, easy play with answers built-in. Fournette continues to protect well.
3rd & 5: Falcons bring a 3 man rush and play single high man with two buzz defenders. The Bucs dial up the mesh concept. The press coverage on Evans had the potential to disrupt this play, but he does an excellent job of getting into his route anyway. This particular situation is one where at-the-snap motion can be helpful in creating a free release.
1st & 10: another play action call, and again against zone. Nice design with answers built-in for a variety of looks. Fournette has a ton of space, so I like Brady's decision to take the easy play. Fournette turns a solid play into a very good play with his play after the catch. It's often a good idea to simply give your players a chance in space where the risk is low but the reward can be high, especially on early downs. Think back to the Miller play early in the game that only went for 2 yards. Good process will have good results over the long run.
1st & 10: 7 man box against 6 blockers. How do you expect this run to go?
2nd & 10: the Bucs seem to use this exact WR screen play every game, and the Falcons were prepared. However, Brady and Evans make an off-script play. Great job by Evans breaking off his route to create a huge opening for Brady. Maybe this is a sign of the chemistry and communication improving?
1st & Goal: this looks like zone on the strong side and man on the weak side? Either way, the Falcons cover well. Brady throws it low and away against tight coverage.
2nd & Goal: beautiful RPO design against this defensive look where one DB is playing off. The only thing I would consider changing is having Evans stem vertically so that the inside corner can't possibly make a play on the ball.
 
8th Possession
 
1st & 10: play action into HB screen. This can be a nice play, but the blocking execution must improve! Yes, you're meant to let rushers pass you as an offensive lineman, but you have to give them a bump.
2nd & 10: we see 3x1 once again to isolate Gronk. The Falcons play cover 2 man, so Brady works the 1 on 1. Here's another situation, where likely by design, Godwin doesn't adjust his route in a way that would be favourable against the given coverage. Godwin sits, which would be great against zone, but the play would be more effective if he kept running horizontally, instead, against man. This is an improvement opportunity for this staff; I'd wager Godwin is simply executing this play the way he's been told to. What’s confusing is that these are super standard route adjustments, and its weird to watch an NFL team not make them.
1st & 10: solid play action design. The FS sits for a moment, and that's why Brady decides to attack deep on the post route. However, Johnson just can't separate enough. I don't understand why he's even out there, as this is the exact type of play where Miller excels! Fournette was also wide open on this play. But, given what the coverage dictated, Brady made the right play. You can't expect him to continue to a later read if the earlier read dictated a pass target.
2nd & 10: the Bucs dial up a post wheel out combination on the strong side against the Falcons' single high zone defence. This is a great situation that created a three-attackers-against-two-defenders situation.
1st & 10: nice outcome with Evans on a comeback route against tight man coverage. This play drew two flags for a big gain.
1st & 10: another easy play in space to Fournette against cover 1 man. If the RBs can be consistent with their catching ability, that'd be a huge plus for this team as these plays are there for the taking when the coverage is right.
1st & 10: easy quick out against off coverage. Continuing to take what the defence is giving.
1st & Goal: good play fake. Defender had to grab Gronk to stop him, and this drew a flag.
1st & Goal: solid run to finish the drive
 
9th Possession
 
1st & 10: very weird play on this 3 man route play action. The ball should've probably been caught, but the throw wasn't great, either.
2nd & 10: another solid play call where Brady has answers against various coverages. The throw to McCoy was the correct decision against this cover 3 zone. I'd much rather see McCoy take whatever yards he can up the sideline instead of trying to move east/west.
3rd & 5: this WR screen call might have been iffy against this tight pre snap look. However, the Falcons send a corner blitz which ended up working perfectly for the Bucs on this play call.
1st & 10: Falcons show cover 3 pre snap but rotate into cover 2 post. Good read by Brady to see this and find the inside sit route to Brate that wouldn't have been open against cover 3.
2nd & 1: same play as the one that opened the game. It's riskier here as there's a corner at the LOS who could potentially make a play. I'd rather just see a run or a play action for an easy play, instead. I don’t love the risk/reward of this play against this defensive look.
1st & 10: Gronk was Brady's 3rd read on this play. It looks like Brady just throws it away high. This was the play after which Brady was visibly frustrated and slamming his hands against his helmet. My guess is this wasn't because he missed the throw (the throwaway looks intentional), but because he realized he had Fournette wide open as the check down.
2nd & 10: decent play against very soft man coverage. Another low risk but high potential reward play if Miller can make a man miss. I’m a fan of this approach philosophically in the pass game.
3rd & 6: looks like there's a concept to beat 2 high on the left, and a concept to beat 1 high on the right. I'm surprised Brady stayed on the left so long. Either way, he got to Gronk in time on the right. However, Gronk fell at the top of his route. Oh well. Nice play call, though.
 
10th Possession
 
1st & 10: the Falcons disguise coverage here beautifully. Before the gif began, the Bucs motioned Fournette, too, who had a linebacker follow him. The Falcons follow two motions and show cover 1 man pre and rotate into a cover 2 zone post. Brady reads it well, anyway, and finds Brate. This type of high-level quarterbacking is easily missed when watching the TV broadcast. It seems like a routine play for a medium gain, but the recognition and processing by Brady is fantastic. These disguises at the NFL level are incredibly difficult to deal with. Another solid play design, too, that gives Brady multiple answers depending on the coverage. If it were cover 1 man, Brady likely would have worked the right side of the field.
1st & 10: unsuccessful run
2nd & 9: once again punishing soft coverage.
1st & 10: solid design against this defence with verticals outside, and (likely) an option route for Godwin in the post. Against single high, like this, he runs a dig route. Against two high he would've run a post. The safety bites down on the dig and leaves AB wide open against his one on one matchup. There was a miscommunication between the DBs at the snap that actually left Godwin wide open. It's possible that this was because the Bucs motioned Godwin from out wide into the slot (forcing last second defensive communication). Brady had two great options, and he happened to pick the touchdown.
 
11th Possession:
1st & 10: run for 2 yards
2nd & 8: good play action design that got AB open, but the protection was terrible.
3rd & 16: screen pass to McCoy against off coverage to improve field position
 
12th Possession:
 
Runs for 1st down + kneel down
 
I saw some, but not too many, people complaining about Brady starting slow. The tape really doesn't back that up. He had the one miss to Godwin early that ended up being inconsequential given the absolute strike to Evans on the next play. I don't believe there's any sort of Brady issue early in the games, though he has had a couple of slow starts. I think that's seeing a small sample of results, which happen to form what looks like a pattern, and then assigning a narrative without understanding the why (which has to be analyzed on a play-by-play basis; it's never as simple as "Brady starts slow... just because"). This type of thinking persists everywhere, including in other aspects of the game and outside of football entirely, but I digress.
This was the most New England-like this offence has looked. This has nothing to do with some "secret New England plays", and everything to do with philosophically committing to play action and taking easy plays that the defensive coverage gives you. I don't think there was a single new play called. The difference was early down passing and not forcing plays against unfavourable looks. I really hope this what the team continues to look like going forward, minus the pass protection. There's a chance that the quick pass heavy game plan was a function of the Falcons having a terrible pass defence, RoJo being out, and playing from a deficit. If that's not the case, and if this is the trend moving forward, there's a lot to be optimistic about on offence.
submitted by HossYJuke to buccaneers [link] [comments]

NFL Wild Card Weekend Predictions Thread (2021 Playoffs)

Happy Wild Card Week, /NFL! I hope everyone had a great 2020 playing along and continue with us into the 2021 postseason. We're in playoff territory now, with Wild Card weekend coming up. For the regular season, Week 17 gave me a 12-4 result, bringing me to 166-90 out of 256 games (64.84% correct). I would love to hear everyone else's final results if you all want to post them.

Saturday, January 9th

Matchup Time/Network Winner Comments
Colts @ Bills 1:05p ET on CBS Bills The Bills have a their first home playoff game since 1996, congrats to them. The Colts can cause them some offensive problems with Taylor against a shaky run D. Indy can also force Allen to try and sustain drives instead of getting big pass plays. Allen is playing well and is capable of spreading the ball around, working the middle of the field to WR Beasley and getting help from TE Knox. The Colts also don't have a true shutdown corner for Diggs. It's easier to expect Allen over Rivers to make the clutch throws to win a game this season.
Rams @ Seahawks 4:40p ET on FOX Seahawks The Rams have it tough this week. They're in a situation right now at QB, going with either a banged-up Goff or a guy who only has one career start under his belt (Wolford). On one hand, you could say it would be smarter to start Goff if he's healthy enough to play, but Goff is coming off thumb surgery and I would definitely have to rank the thumb as the most important finger for a QB. Although Wolford had a solid debut in Week 17, he only led the Rams to nine points. The Rams are playing a Seahawks team that has never lost a home playoff game under Carroll and are expected to have their starting O-line on the field.
Buccaneers @ Washington 8:15p ET on NBC Buccaneers The Bucs hope to have Evans healthy to help red-hot Brady along with Godwin, Brown, Gronk and the running game. As well as Brady is playing, this isn't the greatest spot for his pass protection against Young and Washington's front four. The Bucs' defense will contain the run, but Smith has three dangerous receiving weapons in McLaurin, Thomas and McKissic to have success moving the ball on short-to-intermediate throws. Ultimately, Tampa Bay wins comfortably as expected, but Washington works the number and keeps it to a touchdown loss with inspired play for Rivera.

Sunday, January 10th

Matchup Time/Network Winner Comments
Ravens @ Titans 1:05p ET on ESPN/ABC Ravens Toss up pick for me. Jackson is still looking for his first playoff win after two home losses. He's relaxed and revved up as a passer, and he keeps running at a high level, sparked by Dobbins sharing the backfield with him. Look for the Ravens to get aggressive passing with him to build a lead, and limit Henry from being a consistent gateway to Tannehill's play-action downfield passing. The Ravens and Titans are playing similar offensive games at the moment, but the Titans' defensive woes catch up to them here.
Bears @ Saints 4:40p ET on CBS/Nickelodeon/Amazon Prime Saints The Saints are the biggest favorites of WC Weekend with a double-digit projected lead over the Bears. They have owned this matchup rather easily the past two seasons, with both games being played in Chicago. The Saints will have a rested backfield with Kamara and Murray not playing in Week 17, and they will pound away often at the Bears with them. The Saints won't sleep against another NFC North visitor like they did against the Vikings. NOLA can contain the running of Montgomery and put the game in the hands of Trubisky, which won't end well against the Saints' pressure on the road. Food for thought; Brees, Kamara, and Thomas were on the field together for only two games last season. This will be the first time since September the Saints will be at fully power offensively.
Browns @ Steelers 8:15p ET on NBC Steelers The Browns got their needed win over the Steelers in Cleveland in Week 17 to make the playoffs and force this rematch, but it took everything from them defensively and offensively to survive against a resting team not starting Big Ben. Pittsburgh will show their stouter run D and that will set them up to put consistent pressure on Baker, who doesn't respond well when throwing at a high volume with guys in his face. Big Ben will go to work on a Browns' secondary that has plenty of coverage holes away from Ward. Losing Vernon up front to flank Garrett also hurts. The Steelers ended up making a wise decision to not show the Browns much in way of a real game plan. The Steelers' defense reasserts itself with more offensive help than usual to win comfortable against a COVID-depleted Browns team.
Those are my predictions, let's hear yours. Keep it civil and fun. Best of luck!
Update: 4-2, on to the Divisional Round.
Divisional Round based off current predictions.
submitted by baconlovr to nfl [link] [comments]

Notes and Highlights of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear’s Live Update February 9, 2021

Notes and Highlights of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear’s Live Update February 9, 2021
Notes by mr_tyler_durden and Daily Update Team
Watch here:
Headlines
  1. Rocky and Gov visited 3 local businesses, read and see all about them below: AppHarvest, Rajant Communications, and Kentucky Fresh Harvest.
Full Notes
(continued in stickied comment)
submitted by mr_tyler_durden to Coronavirus_KY [link] [comments]

V1per's Week 16 Survivor/Eliminator Pick

Great week last week. Ravens crushed Jacksonville while The Jets upset a very popular Rams pick. We have 2 weeks standing between us and a perfect season now. Unfortunately this week is going to be a bit tighter than we would like.
I don't care about stupid math stuff, just give me the team to pick
Houston Texans. Though the Chicago Bears are also very reasonable. The current spreads for each game is -8 and -7.5. I would definitely keep an eye on these lines and just take whichever one is larger on Sunday.
Though the Texans lost last week they were tied against a very good Colts team late in the game. On the flip side, Cincinnati did just upset Pittsburgh, though they also got blown out by the Cowboys just a week earlier.
I definitely do not feel super comfortable this week, but it's what we have left to work with.
​
Rank Team P(Win Week) P(Win Out) E(Wins)
1 HOU 77% 68.6% 16.66
2 CHI 75% 66.8% 16.64
3 ARI 68% 60.5% 16.57
4 WSH 58% 51.6% 16.47
​
Sunday Update
​
Rank Team P(Win Week) P(Win Out) E(Wins)
1 CHI 77% 68.6% 16.66
2 HOU 75% 66.8% 16.64
3 PHI 60% 53.4% 16.49
4 WSH 53% 47.2% 16.42
Looks like the lines on CHI/HOU have flipped so CHI is now the mathematically better choice.
The two are still so close that if you want to go with HOU instead for personal reasons I wouldn't hesitate.
I think the news yesterday of James Robinson being out today cemented my decision to go with CHI.
In other news the CLE line dropped like a rock this morning from over 10 to under 7. If you still have them available I would probably switch at this point to CHI or HOU.
​
Season So Far
15 - 0. Just 2 games left. Right now we have IND saved for next week who should be the biggest favorite on the week. Just have to sweat this one out first.
For those of you who have already won, congrats!. For those of you still battling, good luck!
​
Rest of Season Outlook
​
Week Team Opp P(Win)
1 BUF NYJ 100%
2 TB CAR 100%
3 CLE WSH 100%
4 LAR NYG 100%
5 NO LAC 100%
6 MIA NYJ 100%
7 LAC JAX 100%
8 KC NYJ 100%
9 NE NYJ 100%
10 GB JAX 100%
11 PIT @JAX 100%
12 NYG @CIN 100%
13 MIN JAX 100%
14 SEA NYJ 100%
15 BAL JAX 100%
16 HOU CIN 77%
17 IND JAX 89%
​
Nerdy Math Stuff
P(Win Out) = 68.6% (+7.5pp)
E(Wins) = 16.66 (+0.11)
​
Methodology
I get team win percentages from 538 for every game in the entire season. I update probabilities for the current week based on Vegas betting lines to better take into account current team situations that 538's computer models can't account for.
With all of these values, I run something called the Hungarian Algorithm which solves the best possible choices to maximize the total win percentage values. This makes sure to use each team when it's optimal to do so.
The method used for this maximizes your chance of making it through the whole season undefeated. This is ideal if you are in a very large (70+ person) league. If however, you are in a small league that is unlikely to have everyone make it to the end and the last person standing is the winner, than the above picks will be less than ideal. If you're in one of these smaller leagues, download the file below, enter your league size and get the team list specifically for your league.
Download
Mediafire
I've tried to take into account every rule-set possible, but if you have a funky league rule that the workbook doesn't seem to work for let me know and I'll see if I can add the feature.
submitted by V1per41 to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

NFL: Let's talk about teasers (Week 17)

6-point Teasers

Thanks for following along with these posts for the entire season!

Continuing the great work of u/blackjack_counter
previous week 16 post
Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong's strategy:
It is not recommended to tease game totals
The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.
In the week 1 post, u/blackjack_counter did a mathematical dive into whether we should be playing games at exactly +3, whether home teams are more reliable than road teams, and whether the total of the game matters.

Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called "sweetheart" teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, +2½ were 69-10 (87.3%). It's not a very large sample size, but it might be worth keeping an eye on. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2019, I've decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:

Previous Results

There were 7 teams that fit our 6pt teaser criteria and they went 4-3. Hopefully this week allows us to end the regular season on a high note. There were 2 teams that fit the 10pt teaser criteria and they went 2-0, continuing the hot run for the season.
 
The plays last week were:
Off-the-board spread 6 pt 10 pt
Las Vegas +3 Win
Houston -7.5 Loss
Denver +2 Win Win
LA Rams +1.5 Loss Win
Dallas +3 Win
Tennessee +3 Loss
Buffalo -7.5 Win
 
Based on the closing line at Bovada to determine which games qualify as Wong bets. Since u/blackjack_counter used Bovada's closing lines, I will continue to use it. You can verify these lines at sbrodds.com.
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. Including last week, the results since 2017 are listed below.
 
Teaser Year Spread Record Win %
6 pt 2017 +1½ thru +3 61-23 72.6%
6 pt 2018 +1½ thru +3 63-19 76.8%
6 pt 2019 +1½ thru +3 52-16 76.5%
6 pt 2020 +1½ thru +3 54-15 78.3%
6 pt 2017 -7½ thru -9 27-10 73.0%
6 pt 2018 -7½ thru -9 16-9 64.0%
6 pt 2019 -7½ thru -9 17-7 70.8%
6 pt 2020 -7½ thru -9 25-6 80.6%
10 pt 2017 +1½ thru +2½ 22-1 95.7%
10 pt 2018 +1½ thru +2½ 24-5 82.8%
10 pt 2019 +1½ thru +2½ 23-4 85.2%
10 pt 2020 +1½ thru +2½ 16-0 100.0%
 
We can see that the underdog teasers have fallen from their previous hot streak throughout most of the season. It's slightly above previous season's win %, but we'll have to see how this final week turns out. The favorite's teasers are still doing well at 80.6%. The 10pt sweetheart teasers are still undefeated. At the end of the season, I will have to dig into that a bit more and see what happened.
This season has been a decent success for teaser bets for me personally, I hope you are all having success as well
 

This Week

For the purposes of tracking the results and staying consistent, I will continue to use Bovada's closing line.
As of Thursday afternoon, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week are:
 
NY Giants +2
Cleveland -9
NY Jets +3
Miami +3
Tennessee -7.5
Denver +2.5
LA Rams +3
Philadelphia +1.5
 
If you wanted to use Wong's additional criteria of games with a total of 49 points or less, there are 6 games ( NY Giants, Cleveland, NY Jets, Miami, LA Rams, Philadelphia) that match the criteria.
 
Looking through sportsdatabase, since 2017:
NY Giants as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 4-5 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
Cleveland as a favorite between -7.5 to -9 points have been 2-0 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
NY Jets as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 9-0 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
Miami as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 5-2 as a 6pt teaser
Tennessee as a favorite between -7.5 to -9 points have been 5-0 as a 6pt teaser
Denver as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 10-0 as a 6pt teaser
LA Rams as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 2-2 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
Philadelphia as an underdog between +1.5 to +3 points have been 5-1 as a 6pt teaser and total < 49
 
It is unclear on where the final lines on sportsdatabase come from. If you did a similar query for +1.5 to +3 point underdogs 6pt teasers, you would see sportsdatabase have them at 55-12, where Bovada has it at 54-15 for this season. That is a better win rate than Bovada's final lines. I still think its useful to see historical stats on probably line averages across multiple sportsbooks. You could probably dig deeper for teams coming off wins or losses as well.

Regarding game totals < 49

The games with a total of 49 or less got brought up originally by u/blackjack_counter. In his week 1 post, he put:
Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?
Bet Record
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 176-58 75.2%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 142-45 75.9%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 44-14 75.9%
Bet Record
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 59-26 69.4%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 48-19 71.6%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 16-6 72.7%
 
I looked up the historical stats using sportsdatabase (which have final lines using an unknown source, u/blackjack_counter stats were from Bovada lines).
Since 2017, Underdogs +1.5 to +3 are 230-67-2 (77.4%)
Since 2017, Underdogs +1.5 to +3 and game total < 49 are 181-52-2 (77.7%)
Since 2017, Favorites -9 to -7.5 are 80-18-4 (81.6%)
Since 2017, Favorites -9 to -7.5 and game total < 49 are 65-16-3 (80.2%)
 
If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong's original criteria is home favorites):
Since 2017, Home Favorites -9 to -7.5 are 58-16-3 (78.4%)
Since 2017, Home Favorites -9 to -7.5 and game total < 49 are 47-15-2 (75.8%)
 

Round Robin of all matching games

There has been lots of questions and comments on how to bet these Wong teasers. I think there was some thought that doing a Round Robin of 2 or 3 team teasers of the matching games would be ideal. I am not convinced that makes sense.
For example, there are 6 matching in a certain week and only 1 team lost their tease. If you had done a round robin of 2 team teasers from those 6 matching games, you would have 15 possible teaser bets. In this scenario, if you had 5 out of 6 teams that won their tease, then you would be profitable. If only 4 out of 6 had won their tease, then you would have not broken even.
I think the recommendation is to pick and choose teams that match our criteria (and any other information you use to make an informed bet) and put those into a 2 or 3 team teaser bet.
 
Good Luck this week and Happy New Years! Hopefully these teasers do better this week.
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nfl point spreads week 12 over under video

Week 12 NFL odds are out! Find spreads and over/unders for every game below. The NFL flexed a big NFC showdown featuring the Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers into the Sunday Night Football slot for Week 12, bumping the originally-scheduled Seahawks-Eagles matchup into the 1 p.m. ET window. Titans-Colts Week 12 point spread: Colts -3.0 (over/under 51.5) Having lost three of four since a 5-0 start to the season, Tennessee took care of business against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 11. Week 12 of the 2020 NFL season is upon us. Here are the point spreads and over/under point totals for the entire 13-game weekend slate. Visit ESPN to view NFL odds, point spreads and moneylines from this week's games Week 12 is a special one, considering it started with a pair of Thanksgiving contests. The Houston Texans beat up on the Lions in Detroit, 41-25, while the Washington Football Team shredded the Cowboys in Dallas, 41-16. Here we look at NFL Week 12 odds and break down the individual games for the rest of the week. This week, I will focus on two games that highlight significant defensive disparities and their influence on NFL point spread odds that present possible value before making my NFL point spreads picks for Week 12. NFL Odds & Point Spreads, Week 12 San Francisco (+6.5) at Los Angeles Rams, Over/Under 45 The injury bug NFL Week 12 Over Under Spreads, Historical NFL Totals, Opening and closing NFL over under spreads by week. ... NFL Odds, NFL Point Spreads, NFL Over Under, NFL Standings and NFL Schedule are as accurate as possible, they are provided without warranties of accuracy of any kind. Week 11 of the 2020 NFL season is upon us. Here are the point spreads and over/under point totals for the entire 13-game weekend slate. The opening lines for Week 12 of the NFL season have been posted, a full 16-game Thanksgiving holiday slate; The largest spread is 7 points, with the Miami Dolphins favored over the New York Jets and the Green Bay Packers over the Chicago Bears by that many; The over/under is just 43.5 points for the New York Giants-Cincinnati Bengals game The Chiefs are 3.5-point road favorites, with the over-under at 56 in the Week 12 NFL odds from William Hill Sportsbook. ... Green Bay is a 9.5-point home favorite in the Week 12 NFL spreads for ...

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nfl point spreads week 12 over under

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