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How to calculate taxes on bitcoin gambling wins

For example, let's say I buy $1k worth of bitcoin and send it to a bitcoin gambling site. I win another $1k worth of bitcoin and send all that $2k total of bitcoin to CashApp and sell. If all of this happened within an hr and the price of BTC only went up/down by MAYBE a couple dollars...how is that taxed?
Since this bitcoin came out of nowhere from cashapp's perspective, how is capital gains calculated? Will I be taxed on the entire $1k of earnings since there is no "buy" price to compare from the "sell" price? Or instead, will the "buy" price BE the price of BTC when the $2k worth of bitcoin was transferred from the website to cashapp? Idk, its kinda hard to wrap my head around.
BTW, I'm in Cali and a student so I'm in the lowest tax bracket for reference. PLZ help !
submitted by illpayyou000 to tax [link] [comments]

How to calculate taxes on bitcoin gambling wins

For example, let's say I buy $1k worth of bitcoin and send it to a bitcoin gambling site. I win another $1k worth of bitcoin and send all that $2k total of bitcoin to CashApp and sell. If all of this happened within an hr and the price of BTC only went up/down by MAYBE a couple dollars...how is that taxed?
Since this bitcoin came out of nowhere from cashapp's perspective, how is capital gains calculated? Will I be taxed on the entire $1k of earnings since there is no "buy" price to compare from the "sell" price? Or instead, will the "buy" price BE the price of BTC when the $2k worth of bitcoin was transferred from the website to cashapp? Idk, its kinda hard to wrap my head around.
BTW, I'm in Cali and a student so I'm in the lowest tax bracket for reference. PLZ help !
submitted by illpayyou000 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

How to calculate taxes on bitcoin gambling wins

For example, let's say I buy $1k worth of bitcoin and send it to a bitcoin gambling site. I win another $1k worth of bitcoin and send all that $2k total of bitcoin to CashApp and sell. If all of this happened within an hr and the price of BTC only went up/down by MAYBE a couple dollars...how is that taxed?
Since this bitcoin came out of nowhere from cashapp's perspective, how is capital gains calculated? Will I be taxed on the entire $1k of earnings since there is no "buy" price to compare from the "sell" price? Or instead, will the "buy" price BE the price of BTC when the $2k worth of bitcoin was transferred from the website to cashapp? Idk, its kinda hard to wrap my head around.
BTW, I'm in Cali and a student so I'm in the lowest tax bracket for reference. PLZ help !
submitted by illpayyou000 to bitcointaxes [link] [comments]

How to calculate taxes on bitcoin gambling wins (x-post from /r/Bitcoin)

submitted by ASICmachine to CryptoCurrencyClassic [link] [comments]

TL.net interviewed the IEM Katowice 2020 champion, talking about the calculated gambles needed to win the championship

TL.net interviewed the IEM Katowice 2020 champion, talking about the calculated gambles needed to win the championship submitted by TL_Wax to starcraft [link] [comments]

Hun Sen’s calculated gamble in allowing MS Westerdam to dock amid COVID-19 fears, wins over doomsayers - Khmer Times

Hun Sen’s calculated gamble in allowing MS Westerdam to dock amid COVID-19 fears, wins over doomsayers - Khmer Times submitted by podkayne3000 to HotZone [link] [comments]

Stuff for new traders (No GME Discussion)

I gotta say, I see some good shit out there. I see new members trying to diversify their positions and learn about other stocks and other ways to make money. This is the path my fellow retards. I'm a nobody here, but I have good returns and some good insight. When I came to WSB, multiple people helped me figure out what the fuck I was doing, because I knew jack shit. I care more about my money than yours, but no retard should be left in the dark alone. So let me pass on a couple things. I can't prove shit to you, so read this or don't.
I mainly trade options (Calls and Puts), so that is what I will discuss
Generally the most insane gains will come from being in a specific stock and not an ETF or Index. While riskier, this is where you can hit the homeruns. So decide if you want to go for conservative gains or if you want those huge swings. While what I said is true, I am usually against putting everything into a single bet. Anything can go wrong at any time and no play is 100% guaranteed. The goal of this game is to stay alive. You will lose money on a play at some point, because it is inevitable. So never let yourself get wiped out, because you can always build yourself back up. This goes along with one of my other recommendations: always have SOME cash ready to go. You never know when there might be an incredible opportunity and you do not want to get caught with your ass hanging out.
Paper hands and diamond hands are just words. You ultimately decide when you want to sell or hold and how much profit you want to take. One of my favorite strategies is to say, buy an even number of options on a play, sell half at a modest level of gains (like enough to break even or gain a little bit) and then let the rest ride longer. Look guys, on many plays, you either paper hands at some point or diamond hands long enough to see your positions go red. Some people will bail at 40% gains and others might not take anything less than 500%. Just know that chasing endless profits ups the risk factor, so YOU decide when it's time. Having a target share price for the stock is also a good strategy.
Here's a couple psychological principles in investing. Studies have found that people tend to hold onto losing positions too long and sell winning positions too early. They let their losers lose and cut off their winners short. Apparently most people hate losing more than they like winning. Think about this before you sell. Stocks can often get hot and run multiple days in a row. Sometimes a stock will have one red day and then keep up going. This is why it's important to know WHY you got into a position. Trust your DD and stick to the plan. I had ideas for plays where they went red right away and I bailed... only to see them moon. "Diamond Hands" means that you don't dump your position instantly if it goes down. The hardest thing is knowing if you should cut losses or diamond hands. I'm a retard and we're in a bull market.. so often times the stock will eventually go up. Your call though.
The market makers and big boys want you to lose. They want your money. I'm not going to dive into the realm of possible illegal activities that they may use, but just point out some simpler tactics they will use. Big money often sees retail as "weak hands" aka Buy High and Sell Low. They know FOMO is strong when a stock is going up big and that fear takes over when a stock divebombs. We're in a bull market, which means stonks only go up. However, we still have negative days. Stocks sell off sometimes and things can look bad. Generally, the dip is not time to sell, but instead, time to buy. Case and point, we had a pretty big drilling 2 weeks ago. Do you know what the big money did? They bought the fuckin dip and snatched up everything for cheap. We've been mooning ever since.
Sometimes shit makes no sense. A company can have blowout earnings, exceed expectations, and the stock will tank. I was holding one stock a little while ago that reported a fantastic earnings and proceeded to drill to the core of the Earth that day. It was total bullshit and I knew it, I trusted my DD. So instead of panic selling, I added to my position. Sure enough, the stock began swinging upwards and hit an all-time high just 2 weeks later. This is why simply gambling can bite you in the ass. It's easy to get scared and sell when you doubt yourself because you picked a random thing to buy.
Option Expiration Dates matter. Buying a 1 week option is the cheapest and gives the biggest percentage of profits if it goes your way. However, it can often be a noob trap. One bad day or one piece of bad news can kill your entire position. Stocks trade sideways sometimes. Sometimes they don't do what you think they should do. And sometimes the whole fucking market shits itself for seemingly no reason. So give yourself TIME to work with. Time costs money and hurts profit margins. But it is better to consistently make 50% profit than to hit one play for 300% followed by 10 losers. Look, playing weekly stupidly OTM calls is fun as hell and is a huge rush when it hits. I do at least one or more every week. The key is not loading your entire portfolio into this shit. Remember, no tendies = no more fun.
Along the same lines, Strike Price matters. An OTM (Out of the Money) option means that the Strike Price is a bit of a ways from where the stock's price currently is. OTM options give huge profit margins the further you go out. I personally enjoy using them.. some people don't. But my advice is to balance risk with profit potential. If your call relies on a stock gaining 50% in 2 weeks.. then well, it's probably not gonna happen. ITM (In The Money) options means that your stock is already within the strike price. ITM is a more conservative play and sacrifices massive gains for lower risk.
https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/calculatolong-call.html - Use this to get an estimate of potential profits and how much of a move you need
Leaps are fuckin dope. A Leap is a call, but for a much longer period of time. I'm using the term loosely because we're degenerates and some people might consider anything more than 1 month a leap. Given that the market trends up over time, you might even make some money on a mediocre stock this way. A lot of people buy ITM leaps, but again, I'm a degenerate and go OTM a lot.
Implied Volatility (IV) - Extremely fucking important. IV is basically an estimation of how much a stock is predicted to move in either direction. High IV = Expensive Options. It's fucking weird to think, but you can make similar profits from a 2% move on a low IV stock as you can from a 5% move on a more volatile stock. Low IV is fantastic when buying an option on a stock that you think is about to moon. High IV is riskier, so you damn well better think the stock can make some big moves. Buying an option on a stock right before Earnings Report (ER) will be more expensive due to IV. Trying to play ER is usually for suckers, unless you have some really good DD about why a company might deliver a huge surprise. One of the textbook big boy moves is to pump a stock going into ER. The company will deliver great news and then dump hard. You may see people bitching about this very soon. Basically, big money knew ahead of time it would be good, so the stock got pumped and then they took profits.
Buy the rumor and sell the news. Events, press releases, and important dates that everyone knows about are another trap. You will get shit on. Ask someone about TESLA Battery Day. Positive rumors will send a stock soaring though.
Finally, get busy learning. Read about Options on Investopedia and any other things you do not understand. The big boys rely on us to not know what the fuck we're doing to take our money. Learn about the general market. Stocks are grouped into "Sectors" or categories. Start figuring out what they are and pay attention to where the money is going. I didn't even mention half of the shit that goes on in options, so that's on you. The first thing you need to do is to learn what the "Greeks" are. That will teach you how options function.
https://www.investopedia.com/trading/using-the-greeks-to-understand-options/
If anyone wants to talk or discuss, send me a message. I'm a degenerate with no life.
Oh and, if you follow someone's DD and lose money that's on you. I've come up with some genius shit, but I've also lost on some retarded calls. Nobody can pick you a guaranteed winner and hindsight is 20/20.
May the gains be with you
submitted by DarkStar668 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

A Gambler's Guide to GME. How to use Expected Value to Help Make Decisions.

I am not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. If you are gambling with money that you need to survive, you are acting irresponsibly. I am doing this ONLY with the speculative part of my position (which is all of it, but still true) and this post is referring to that speculative portion.
The expected value (EV) is the anticipated value for an investment or speculation at some point in the future. You calculate all the positive outcomes multiplied by their likelihood of occurrence with the negative outcomes multiplied by their likelihood of occurrence and you will have your perceived expected value. If the number is negative, you are better off getting out and cutting losses. Gamblers win by making positive EV decisions, even if sometimes you have the nuts on the turn and then a fish flops a flush on the river.
Expected Value (EV) = ((Total Negative Outcomes)*(Likelihood of Occurrence)+(Total Positive Outcomes)*(Likelihood of Occurrence))
With this speculative portion, the amount that you have already put in is a sunk cost, if you paid $420 a share or $5 a share, that amount is gone. We will only look at the price that it is today. For simplicity, let's say it's $60 right now.
So let's say I think that the lowest this stock can go is $30, due to favorable coverage and impressions among zoomers and millenials, who are the primary demographic, along with news of the new internet-savvy hires, the Chewy guy and all that.
So negative outcome of $60 to $30 represents a 50% drop. What's my target price? Let's say its $1000, representing a gain from our example's current price of 1,566.67%. Likelihood that it hit's $30 before $1,000, idk, let's say I estimate a 95% chance of that happening first.
EV =(-50% loss from current level)(95% likelihood)+(1,566.67% gain)(5% likelihood)
EV=(-.5)(.95)+(15.6667)(.05)
EV=((-0.475)+(0.7833))=0.3833 (Expected EV is positive from our assumptions, I should HOLD!)
And the fabled $69,420? I'm not gonna write out the math on this, but it turns out that the perceived breakeven EV is with a 99.96% chance to fail versus 0.04% chance to succeed at this level. If I thought that the chance of this succeeding was greater than 0.04%, not 4%, 0.04%, I should at least HOLD my position.
“SO YOU'RE TELLING ME THERE'S A CHANCE!”
“YEEAHHH!” -Lloyd Christmas
Now someone might tell me that my assumptions are wrong; that the drop is more or less likely than I presented or could be more (or less). That's fair. I might be wrong, but this is what I am looking at and the way I am looking at it. Do your own DD. (edit: bolded this for all the retards that wanna fixate on the assumptions in my example. I used what I feel is a pessimistic likelihood for effect.)
Anyway, hope this puts things into perspective. The Hedge Funds want you to fold your hand at the lowest point possible, because that is positive EV for them. If you can afford to gamble (er, this is the stock market, so um, let's say speculate), these are things to think a bout.
TLDR: Based on assumptions of worst case scenarios and their estimated likelihood, along side current prices & target goals, you can make math-based decisions on whether you should sell or hold.
submitted by ferrellhamster to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Debrief From My Third Annual 100 Hearts in 30 Days Challenge. (127!).

Hi, I’m sharing data from my recent 30-day a20 heart kill challenge. I was able to kill 127 hearts in 212 runs, a substantial increase both in total hearts killed (previous best was 102) and winrate (don’t remember previous but it wasn’t very close to 60%).
This is my third time attempting the challenge. It’s mostly just a ton of fun. It isn’t intended to be a competitive category and I’m sure that it’s possible to go much higher still, especially with strategies that sacrifice winrate, for example forfeiting at the end of bad act ones.
Runs are played rotating through characters. I started on Ironclad and ended on Watcher.
These runs can mostly be interpreted as me trying to win as often as possible, with the obvious caveats that I’m also trying to complete runs in <1.5 hours and playing 8+ hours a day without a day off for 30 days. Quite a few runs in the dataset were lost to simple calculation errors because my brain was melting, or to not pursuing lines which would trade time for marginal advantages like a better number on Ink Bottle. On a more macro level I tended slightly toward taking high-risk/high-reward lines in runs which were falling behind in order to either get them over with or give myself a higher chance of winning if I continued - stuff like taking more Act 2 Elite fights, fighting Double Orb Walkers, etc. - I don’t think this had a large effect on my winrate (mostly I did this in spots where both options seemed very close in value anyway) but it’s worth noting because it is different from how I’d play when trying to purely maximize my chance to win.
You also may want to ignore the runs where I bought Prismatic Shard or took early Signature Move and tried to kill every enemy with it if you’re interested in analyzing “serious” play xD. But I think there are only three of those or something like that. I have been known to meme a little at times.
Link to Folder of Run Histories
Link to IMGUR album of in-game Run History screens
Overall thoughts on the attempt:
It took me a while to switch into 1.5-hour run mode. I’d been playing 2-3hr runs for the last 4 months, and the first few days involved a LOT of calculation errors and turns where I spent a long time looking for very specific lines, which works if I’m giving myself a comfortable amount of time to play but fails when I’m time-crunching myself. There were turns where - for example - I’d look for lethal for five minutes when it was immediately obvious that I could just full block and kill next turn, or spend five minutes trying to work out a good reshuffle that was only ~5% likely to be doable to begin with, and spending mental energy on these lines compounded into making mistakes when I didn’t make time to spend mental energy on the things which were more generally important in the run.
To give you a numerical idea, I started the challenge 39w-41l over the first 80 runs. Variance definitely exists in a dataset of that size, but that is a LOT worse than how well I was doing once I settled in.
Once I dialed in I started doing much better. Especially in the middle of the challenge, lines felt effortless to find and maximizing the minutiae of the game (Ink Bottle on right number types of things) was often automatic. I also started to vibe very well with the limits of each run - there were very few runs where I was dying to elites I could have avoided, or building decks which ultimately couldn’t handle the late-game boss gauntlet. Some of the wins in this period were VERY good wins which I’d be proud to have played even in a non-challenge settings.
I managed 52w-26l rotating during this period, including holding 75% winrate for 50+ runs, an 11-0 rotating winstreak (new world record at the time - congrats to Baalor and Terrence, who managed 11-0 and 13-0 respectively later in the same week! Completely insane!, and to CrimsonBlur who managed 10-0 last year on a much harder patch), a 12-0/18-1 Watcher streak (new personal best), and a 9-0 Defect streak (one run short of my previous best from late last year). My Silent and Ironclad did quite well here too. I’ve had moments when I’ve been sharper on calculations or more dialed in on specific characters, but in terms of overall rotating play this is the best period of play I’ve ever managed.
Then there was the decline. Turns out doing this involves some mental fatigue. I put a ton of my remaining mental energy into my 11-0 winstreak and never got back to full. I closed out the challenge with 23w-17l, including MANY losses to extremely simple mistakes. Things like not resting before an elite when it was very obvious I was taking 30+ against Gremlin Nob, or entering Wrath with no way to leave it on the turn before the Heart attacked me.
What was most interesting to me during this final “exhaustion” period was how many runs I lost on Defect and Watcher to misevaluating my deck’s ability to perform in important fights. I don’t usually have to think at all to be able to have a good idea of whether my deck can win a fight like Book of Stabbing or Time Eater, but at this point in the challenge I was often getting things like that completely wrong, or my brain just wasn’t even registering that it needed to consider them. These mistakes were accompanied by building some quite bad decks which leaned heavily into trying to do things that weren’t actually good enough to overcome the challenges they faced, and an uptick in calculation errors didn’t help at all.
I finished the challenge VERY tired but very glad to have committed to it. One of the most enjoyable months of my life, and there were times in there where Slaying the Spire felt like seeing the Matrix. I can’t wait to do it again.
Ironclad-specific thoughts (25w-28l):
I was 15-5 over my last 20 with Ironclad before the challenge and was expecting to win a lot with him, but I ran poorly and played poorly for a lot of the challenge. Probably the simplest way to describe it would be that I had a string of runs with poor Act 1’s, which led to me overcompensating and putting too much stuff into my deck for Act 1 and Act 2. Then I died a lot to Act 3 and 4, whoops. I adjusted properly for the middle of the challenge, then fell off a cliff when I started getting exhausted. I think the fact that he got played after Watcher runs, which are often calculation-heavy and also which often impose a sense of invincibility on the player, didn’t help much.
I relic-swapped the vast majority of these runs, which I found to be less good than it used to be with the buffs to self-damage synergies. Toward the end of the challenge I was only relic-swapping if there wasn’t a very good other option. I still find that Ironclad performs very well on 4 energy, but it’s rough that his character-specific relics aren’t great and that the sustain from his regular starter relic matters a bit more now that Rupture and Hemokinesis are so much better, since you're often taking extra damage in hallway fights in order to have extra power in boss fights.
Most of my Ironclad wins are built on strong Act 1 relics and boss relics. His synergies mostly don’t feel strong enough to win on their own, unless you assemble a Corruption or Barricade exodia and/or get multiple Offerings to get everything online. It’s hard to draw cards with him to accelerate your deck, and it’s hard to deal damage without taking damage and hard to block while achieving anything else.
It also lowkey tilts me that several of his best cards don’t get better in multiples. If Defect gets offered a second Echo Form it massively improves the deck, but if Ironclad gets offered a second Corruption or Barricade it’s like… maybe you take it to get it in play earlier, sure, but it definitely doesn’t let you play your first three cards twice every turn.
General advice: just get Snecko Eye and Corruption every run, ideally with Reaper and Feed alongside. Failing that, the best ways to combine damage and survivability are usually going to be Strength + Reaper with some passable Block cards and good Max HP or Block + Anything; Body Slam isn’t the be-all end-all here, if you have the ability to survive turns with copies of Shrug It Off+ and Exhaust + Feel No Pain you have enough time to kill enemies with a variety of things.
Silent-specific thoughts (34w-19l):
Not a fan of the Blade Dance buff. Prior to it Silent was possibly my favorite character. The tension between generally needing attack-based damage to survive Act 2 but having difficulty scaling it enough to defeat the endgame gauntlet often led to runs where every floor felt challenging (with the exception of Wraith Form runs. Imagine having a card just make the player invincible for >50% of the game).
Now it feels generally easy to not only demolish Act 1 and 2 with attacks, but also scale them into a lategame deck. By the end of the challenge I was building a deck around an attack-generating common that I sometimes hadn’t even gotten one of yet instead of picking Crippling Cloud+’s I was offered, which was not a good feeling at all. I don’t think there’s ever been a common that dominated a character’s strategic space this heavily before.
Keep in mind that this is alongside other buffs as well. It used to be that a deck that dealt damage with a lot of attacks needed creative solutions to Time Eater and the Heart and stomped everything else, but now it’s often the case that it just stomps everything full-stop.
It doesn’t help that Silent’s starter relic plus Acrobatics and Calculated Gamble were already so strong at accelerating. Now you can play your attack common on turn 1 and discard four Shivs to draw four more cards toward your copies of Adrenaline and Footwork etc., so not only does it deal 16 for 1, count as five cards for Ink Bottle, play four attacks for Shuriken, and have the ability to be targeted at separate enemies, but it can also combine with a strong Uncommon to be Skim+. This is too strong :/.
General advice:
Take enough damage cards/relics to kill things and then make sure you can survive 40 incoming damage on the turns you need to - relics and potions are sometimes all you need, but damage options are also so strong that you can get away with dedicating a significant portion of your deck to mitigation.
Also: don’t Relic swap unless the other options are incredibly bad. Bag of Preparation is insanely good and with this character you can get two.
Defect-specific thoughts (29w-24l):
Defect is a beautiful character right now and often provided the most entertaining run of the day. The general yin-yang pull of needing to be able to survive vicious fights in Act 2 and 3 but also needing to be able to scale into a deck that beats the lategame gauntlet compartmentalizes into lots of interesting decisions about when it’s okay to add so-so orb-scaling cards to your deck, and how exactly you’re going to throw together a combination of 25 atrocious attack cards, Ball Lightning, Doom and Gloom, and Electrodynamics to deal damage to things. (My advice is to just get offered Ball Lightning, Doom and Gloom, and Electrodynamics so you don’t have to think too hard. Static Discharge does okay sometimes too).
I love the way runs “typically” revolve around fairly normal attack-based clears of low-hp enemies into fairly normal block-scaling to survive lategame fights long enough to kill them however you’d like, but sometimes completely go off the rails. I got to play a ridiculous 3x Hyperbeam/3x Meteor Strike run (without Snecko Eye), for example.
I also love being offered Stack. Hello World + Stack scaling led to a couple of other immensely enjoyable wins. It’s very funny to me to have a Defragment+ and Glacier in my deck, be thinking “oh yeah, I have premium uncommons that block super well!”, and then be offered Stack and be forced to admit that an unupgraded common usually blocks better than they do.
I think Defect is the best-positioned character in terms of Whale Bonus balance right now. I’ve found it to generally be correct to relic swap unless there is a very strong alternative or a path which allows me to get a lot of value out of my Lightning Orb.
General advice:
Kill early and midgame stuff with whatever option gets in the way of your lategame scaling least. Compile Driver and Sweeping Beam draw cards, Electrodynamics and Static Discharge remove themselves from your deck (also Static is OP with Frost Orbs against multiattacks), Ball Lightning and Doom and Gloom are 2+ attacks worth of damage in one card, etc.
Then make sure you scale and can accelerate into that scaling. Fission, Seek, Skim+, Turbo+, Bag of Preparation, Bottles, etc. to get your deck to a point where it’s outputting 40+ block per turn and the run is over.
Watcher-specific thoughts (39w-14l):
The great thing about Watcher is that almost every run you lose is entirely your fault. Probably somewhere between one and three of these runs were lost to an unlucky result of close-to-correct play, and every other one was me building my deck wrong for a fight, piloting it wrong, picking the wrong potion or relic, etc.
I haven’t generally enjoyed Watcher in the past, and have mostly not been playing her for the last year (or when I have I’ve been occasionally forfeiting Act 3 because I’m bored of clicking on Cut Through Fate and Tantrum over and over again), so I felt like I actually learned a significant amount about the character in this challenge.
My general Watcher-heuristics right now are:
Pretty much every type of synergy draws cards, makes block, and some of them even make energy, so it’s fine to have lots of different synergies in the same deck as long as they aren’t too awkward to get rolling. If you just take the best card offered to you every time you should still easily be winning 70+% of your runs. Getting better at Watcher seems to largely be about first realizing that Talk to the Hand, Mental Fortress, Tantrum, and Rushdown are obscenely overpowered, and then realizing the ways in which every single other card is obscenely overpowered as well. (Except Pressure Points, lol).
Hexaghost can kill you if you don’t take enough damage cards, Act 2 Elites can kill you if you don’t have enough health banked for them or didn't take attacks properly, Time Eater can kill you if your deck is very bad at dealing damage or very bad at blocking, and the Heart can kill you on turn 2 or 3 if you are bad at accelerating your synergies. Other than that it’s unclear that Watcher can ever die unless you click the cards wrong or get incredibly incredibly incredibly unlucky AND don't have potions available to compensate for it.
I actually quite enjoyed Watcher this challenge and look forward to playing her more. The lategame gauntlets were sometimes a lot more interesting than I thought they would be, with my win to go 10-0 in my 11-0 streak being one of the coolest Heart fights I’ve ever played.
It’s just a bit unfortunate that like, her cards are so strong that I take Pandora’s Box over anything, the most interesting thing about most fights she plays is working out how to Lesson Learned with Ink Bottle on the right number, and the times that you do legitimately lose are to ridiculous things like drawing three copies of Omniscience in your opening hand. (And that she’s so strong that you find yourself questioning if that was your fault and you should’ve not taken the third Omniscience so that this couldn’t happen when that happens to you).
I personally tended to avoid Boss Relic swap on her because it didn't seem like I needed four energy to win anyway, and the upsides that the Boss Relics turn off often seemed more impactful than the bonuses they were providing, but you can certainly win almost every run with her by Relic swapping too.
Overall Takeaways:
The game is a bit easier than I’d like right now. It seems hard for the devs to add more ascensions, but balance is starting to break a bit at a20 and I hope they go very easy on the buffs in the future. The Blade Dance buff was a massive correction to a problem that I don’t think was actually a problem.
I don’t like that Boss Relics are so strong that trading Boss Relic is a common start, and don’t like that the cardpools have gotten so strong that Transforming cards is generally correct. Balancing such that high-variance options are correct leads to an increase in the frequency of runs where the balance breaks very quickly. I'd personally prefer if these options were usually slightly -ev, so that they were available for runs where you needed a chance to highroll but incorrect the rest of the time.
Last challenge I felt like I was engaged ~80% of the time, with ~10% of the time I was unengaged being because the run was completely won already and ~10% of the time I was unengaged being because the run was almost certainly lost and I was treading water until something killed me. This time those numbers were more like 75/20/5.
Game is very very good though, and I hope you enjoy this set of runs if you decide to check them out!
<3, jorbs
submitted by JoINrbs to slaythespire [link] [comments]

My Options Overview / Guide (V2)

Greeting Theta Gang boys and girls,
I hope you're well and not bankrupt after last week. I'm just now recovering mentally myself. I saw a few WSB converts and some newbies asking for tips, so here you go. V2 of my Options guide. I hope it helps.

I spent a huge amount of time learning about options and tried to distill my knowledge down into a helpful guide. This should especially be useful for newbies and growing options traders.
While I feel I’m a successful trader, I'm not a guru and my advice is not meant to be gospel, but this will hopefully be a good starting point, teach you a lot, and make you a better trader. I plan to keep typing up more info from my notebook, expanding this guide, and posting it every couple months.
Any feedback or additions are appreciated
Per requests, I added details of good and bad trades I made. Some painful lessons learned are now included. I also tried to organize this better as it got longer.
Here's what I tell options beginners:
I would strongly recommend buying a beginner's options book and read it cover to cover. That helped me a lot.
I like this beginner book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00GWSXX8U/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_OxNDFb2GK9YW7
Helpful websites:
Don't trade until you understand:
Basics / Mechanics
General Tips and Ideas:
Profit Retention / Loss Mitigation
Trade Planning & Position Management Tips
-Advanced Beginner-
Spreads
Trading Mechanics, Taxes, Market Manipulation
-Intermediate / Advanced Strategies (work in progress)-
You’ll notice many of these strategies inverse one another.
Options Strategy Finder
This website is great for learning about new strategies, you’ll see many links to it below.
https://www.theoptionsguide.com/option-trading-strategies.aspx
Short Strangle / Straddle
Iron Condor and Iron Butterflies
Long Condor (Debit Call Condor)
Short Condor (Credit Call Condor)
Reverse Iron Condor
LEAPs
PMCC / PMCP
Advanced Orders

Disclaimer:
I’m not a financial adviser, I'm actually an engineer. I’m not telling you to invest in a specific stock/option or even use a specific strategy. I’ve outlined and more extensively elaborated on what I personally like. You should test several strategies and find what works best for you.
I'm just a guy who trades (mainly options) part-time for financial gain and fun. I don't claim to be some investing savant.
submitted by CompulsionOSU to thetagang [link] [comments]

How to maximize your profit madame Tusk's gambling place

We all know the trick that uses whip-throws to roll either a 1 or a 6. While this method gives you quick acces to all the prizes, you still need an average of 25 000 gold to win 5 times.
The method I showcase here ensures that you earn back your entry fee (on average) while winning your prizes and is useful when you don't have much money (Maybe you started your run in tide pool).
Our goal is to archieve a score of 8 or higher as often as possible. The first throw should be a normal throw and can result in anything from 1 to 6. If the first throw results in a 4, 5 or 6 we continue with a normal dice throw. If the first throw results in a 1, 2 or 3 we use a whip throw next to maximize our winning chance.
I've calculated the odds with this method to be:
Winning 5000 gold: 50%
Winning the prize: 17%
Loosing 5000 gold: 33%
In comparison the odds for only whip-throwing are:
Winning 5000 gold: 25%
Winning the prize: 50%
Loosing 5000 gold: 25%
submitted by REDDITFAN1996 to spelunky [link] [comments]

A third of the way into the season, it seems like the worst-case scenario is playing out for the Timberwolves.

TL:DR: The Timberwolves are, again, a bottom-feeding NBA team. They will more likely than not be losing their very high lottery pick due to a gamble the front office made when trading for D’Angelo Russell. Meanwhile, they are throwing away another year of KAT’s (potentially limited) time left with the franchise.
The Wolves are in an incredibly unenviable position right now. Due to insurmountable inexperience/youth, injuries to key players (namely KAT), and poor coaching, the Wolves find themselves at the bottom of the Western Conference.
In the Wiggins/DLo trade, the Timberwolves also gave up a top-3 protected first round pick. POBO Gerson Rosas took a colossal (albeit calculated) risk by banking on the KAT/DLo pairing being good enough that the value of the pick wouldn’t be high enough to be a backbreaking loss.
What probably did not factor into his calculations is that the much anticipated (to Wolves fans, anyway) duo would have played only four games as teammates in the calendar year since the trade occurred. Moreover, he could not have predicted that the Wolves franchise cornerstone would have only played five of the first 25 games due to a wrist injury and COVID. KAT’s absence is painfully evident on the court. KAT raises the floor of the team significantly, and they are clearly a very different, more competitive team when he’s healthy and playing. Not even the most skeptical national writers expected the Wolves to be this bad this season.
So, the Timberwolves, due to a multitude of reasons (including head coach incompetence, which I would like to emphasize), are dreadfully bad, at 6-19. And because of the top-3 protected pick they sent to GSW, not only are they a bottom-feeder, but they are also more likely to lose their much-needed first round pick than to keep it.
To make matters worse, there is a perception that the Wolves are on borrowed time with KAT, should they continue to field such non-competitive teams. Though KAT (to my knowledge) has not said anything to indicate his mindset on the matter one way or another, the trend in the modern NBA is for superstars to move teams if their current team lacks the ability to contend for a championship.
While players like Dame, and apparently now Beal, who want to grit it out on try to help “their” team win a chip do exist, they are the exception and not the norm. It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where KAT wants out in a few years if the franchise continues spinning its wheels at the bottom of the WC.
One bright spot is the apparent abundance of talented/high upside young players the Wolves have: Naz Reid (21), Anthony Edwards (19), Jaden McDaniels (20), Jarred Vanderbilt (21), Jaylen Nowell (21), Jordan McLaughlin (24), Malik Beasley (24), and Jarret Culver (21) are all young players who look like they could have a role in the future of the Timberwolves, some much larger than others.
But, assuming the Wolves are in a rush to be competitive and placate KAT, how many of these guys fit the timeline of helping make this team competitive ASAP? Ant having all-star potential or McDaniels developing into an all-defense 3 and D wing only does the team so much good if it’s two or three years down the road.
Without KAT potentially wanting out, and without the very real threat of losing their lottery pick, I think most Timberwolves fans would be content watching the young guys continue to blossom while solidifying their position at the top of a highly coveted draft class. Instead, we are watching a bad team flounder, wasting another year of KAT under contract, while also (likely) losing a key opportunity to bolster the roster for next season.
submitted by EsotericPotato to nba [link] [comments]

Tactical Nuclear Warheads and You: A Neheb, The Eternal Decklist/Primer

Hey you. Yeah, you. You tired of playing the same Golos deck, playing two lands a turn, drawing into your combo pieces, and winning while the entire table finishes War and Peace on their phones? You bored with your Sultai landfall deck, where you play solitaire for three hours? Board police getting too much to bear?
Well, let me introduce you to your new best friend: [[Neheb, the Eternal]].
Now, if you've never seen Neheb before, I know what you're thinking. "Wow, that card looks absolutely absurd", and buddy, you're right. Neheb decks aren't as much EDH decks as they are high-score attempts, seeing how much damage they can dish out in a single turn. Damage doublers, triplers, pingers that only go face, and enough X spells to make Zaxara cry in a little Sultai corner.
You want infinite combats? Neheb. You want to [[Comet Storm]] for 80? Neheb. You want to burn that lifegain deck right back to the pit it crawled out of? YOU WANT TO PUT THE FEAR OF GOD INTO ANYONE WHO DARES CONTINUE TO LIVE? N E H E B.
STEP ONE: RAMP
While Neheb himself is both a beeftank of a man and creates mana like he's eighty mountains strapped to a rocket sled, Neheb works best when he's out, and five mana isn't exactly cheap. So, what do we need? The standard rocks and ramp, like [[Sol Ring]], [[Wayfarer's Bauble]], [[Mind Stone]], [[Arcane Signet]], [[Ruby Medallion]], you get it. We do, however, run a few interesting ramp cards.
[[Cryptolith Fragment]] comes in tapped, sure, but once we have our big Lazotep Lasher out, we can tap it for one mana in the main phase, and three (3!) mana in the 2nd main phase. The good news is that if it transformed, something has gone horribly wrong, so we're not even gonna talk about the back. If it does flip, though, nine mana in the 2nd main isn't bad at all.
[[Everflowing Chalice]] isn't a rock, it's a bank. If you have a ton of mana floating in the second main, and you will, Everflowing Chalice is a way to keep some of it and use it on turns going forward. You can replace this with [[Horizon Stone]], I guess, but Everflowing is just a bit faster, and remember: Horizon Stone is based on Kruphix, and he's Simic, and we blow Simic players into small chunks. Oh, also, we have better Horizon Stone.
THAT'S RIGHT WE HAVE [[Leyline Tyrant]] BABY. You want to float mana? Leyline Tyrant. You want an evasive beater? Leyline Tyrant. You want protection from removal in the form of Leyline Tyrant choosing violence and blowing up someone's face? Ley. Line. Tyrant.
You want mana? You want it NOW? Cool. We got [[Seething Song]] and [[Jeska's Will]] for all your mana needs. Turn 2 Neheb is always a bucket of fun. Black can keep [[Dark Ritual]], I bet they're casting single target removal with it, what a bunch of nerds.
Our mana doubler is [[Extraplanar Lens]] and [[Snow-Covered Mountains]]. We want mana. Not them. If they have snow-covered mountains, blow them up first. Cowards.
[[Chandra, Torch of Defiance]] has two +1 abilities: gain red red, or deal two damage to each opponent, draw a card, and get six red mana. She's here for her good +1.
Now that we have our mana online, let's talk about our two plans: Nukes and Dukes.
STEP TWO: DUKES
PART ONE: BOXING GLOVES
Neheb is a commander that likes to attack. Once he's out, we're going to want to have him swing probably ever turn, because even if he's blocked he goes right over the top. The issue, however, is that while he has 6 toughness, that's not a lot going into the late game. So, we've got some boxing gloves for our beeftank.
[[Darksteel Plate]] lets us not really worry about Neheb. Slap some darksteel on that lazotep and watch the haymakers fly.
[[Sword of War and Peace]] and [[Sword of Sinew and Steel]] give him protection from white and black, and also importantly, RED. We can use our X spells that also hit creatures with impunity once we give Neheb one of his twin blades.
[[Shadowspear]] gives Neheb trample, which lets him smack harder, and also, for two mana, you can remove indestructible and hexproof from an opponent's permanents. A glorious piece of tech. The lifelink can be nice, but it's, there to punch through. Speaking of punching through
[[Embercleave]] needs no introduction. If you're turning something sideways, Embercleave is always a great way to make sure it damn well hurts.
[[Swiftfoot Boots]] makes killing Neheb harder, and anything that makes Neheb stickier is good in my books. Haste is also an absolute plus. We don't have [[Lightning Greaves]] because we want to give Neheb more equipment than just lightning greaves, and shroud makes that harder than it needs to be.
PART TWO: SIDEWAYS CREATURES
If we're swinging more than once a turn, and we WILL be swinging more than once a turn, we want to swing with things that create effects that benefit from multiple combats. Enter our beaters:
[[Tectonic Giant]] swings once and deals three damage to everyone, or impulse draws. You swing multiple times with him and with Neheb in play, and boy howdy did you just draw and make a ton of mana. An absolute unit of a card.
[[Etali, Primal Storm]] is four free draws per swing. You swing multiple times with Stompy McCardsteal, and you've basically cast Villainous Wealth in red.
[[Neheb, Dreadhorde Champion]] is both real and not impulse draw and mana ramp. Swing, dump bad cards, get mana, repeat. EZ Clap.
PART THREE: TECHNICAL KNOCKOUT
[[World at War]] and [[Savage Beating]] gives us extra combats, with World At War having rebound to guarantee us extra combat the next turn and Savage Beating giving us double strike to combat trick like an absolute madman if we need to really add insult to injury.
[[Aggrivated Assault]] takes a small amount to explain. So, if we swing with Neheb, and he's unblocked, we get four mana. Tap a mountain, five mana, get an extra combat, swing with Neheb, go to the next main phase, EIGHT MANA, because Neheb cares about total damage of the turn, and checks every post-combat main phase, not your first one. That's right. We go infinite. Blow up the world, send out Neheb, and swing for infinite gaining infinite mana.
Also do not shout the names of the cards in this section because most of them are absolutely crimes and your pod will call the cops to stop you from beating their life totals into the dirt.
STEP THREE: NUKES
PART ONE: PRIMING FOR FISSION
Before we can bow up the world, we need to prime ourselves for it. To do this, we need to damage our opponents, and get our damage increasing abilities online.
[[Acidic Soil]] and [[Price of Progress]] are pretty much free damage. That guy who spent all game mana fixing? Yeah, he's getting shot for 16. The Golos deck? 30. Acidic Soil is there because it also counts basics, so the budget player who thought he was safe can get slapped for daring to play Magic as well.
[[Chandra's Ignition]] is 5 red mana for 12 red mana if you hit Neheb with it. It also board wipes. Slap it on Etali if you have protection for Neheb, and watch the world go down in fire.
[[Flame Rift]], [[Slagstorm]], and [[Fiery Confluence]] hit our opponents for dirt cheap costs. Three mana to get nine mana? two mana and four life for 12 mana? Treasonous Ogre is crying, he's been unemployed. Fiery Confluence is also a board wipe and a removal spell, which is super neato, as we're a mono-colored deck, so our toolbox isn't super diverse.
[[Combustible Gearhulk]] says "Give me draw or give me mana''. It's our Fact or Fiction, and much like Fact or Fiction, there are only bad answers. With an average CMC of 3, we're going to either draw three or get our mana back when someone takes 6 damage.
[[Pyrohemia]] says "pay one red mana: Gain three red mana". It's literally just Dark Ritual that is also removal. If you can't see why that's good I have no idea what you're doing in a red burn deck explanation.
[[Heartless Hidetsugu]] deals damage to each opponent equal to half their life total, rounded down. Deals damage. This isn't loss of life, this isn't 'becomes', Hidetsugu takes their life totals outside with a baseball bat and teaches it to fear the color red. Shadowspear on him makes you gain all the life they lost. If you have a damage doubler out, Hidetsugu says "Tap this creature, Win the Game." If he taps, and Neheb is out, one X spell almost guarantees a player death.
PART TWO: ROCKET FUEL
[[Torbran, Thane of Red Fell]] is not a damage doubler, but it does make our smaller pingers like Flame Rift, Fiery Confluence, and Pyrohemia absolutely backbreaking. Think of him as the initial charge.
[[Insult // Injury]] often time reads "Pay 3 mana: Your next spell kills a player". Injury is nice, but we're really here for the cheap damage double and to stop any damage prevention shenanigans. We're casting Insult when we know we can go off.
[[Fiery Emancipation]] Is here because, honestly, we make so much mana we'd be stupid not to run it. Six mana to triple damage when we make dozens of mana a turn is an incredible deal, and because it's one-sided, we don't have to worry about people killing us immediately with their tiny creatures. [[Furnace of Rath]] is two mana cheaper, yes, but importantly it doubles instead of triples, and also, uh, it doubles on US. We're trying not to self-destruct.
PART FOUR: DETONATION
[[Rolling Earthquake]] hits everything without horsemanship, so it hits everything. It's strictly better than Earthquake, because if we're casting an X spell, 80% of the time we're casting it because either A) We're about to lose or B) We're about to win.
[[Molten Disaster]] has split second, which makes it uncounterable, unreturnable, and uninteractable. It's our "YOU DARE PLAY BLUE?!" card.
[[Jaya's Immolating Inferno]] targets up to three targets. You will have three opponents in your pod. The math works.
[[Comet Storm]] is flexible, in that if you've already blown someone to kingdom come, it costs one less mana! So that's nice! It's also great target removal, and great with our newest card...
[[Toralf, God of Fury]]. Oh yeah. In this deck, a deck where we overkill everything, Toralf becomes an absolute monster. Earthquake everyone, and have the excess damage dealt to their creatures finish them off. The flip side of the card also goes mana-positive with Neheb, if we really need to get there and are just out of reach. This is a card this deck loves like your opponents love not being blown off the face of the earth by fireballs.
PART FIVE: CLUSTER MUNITIONS
[[Primal Amulet]] lets us copy our damage when it flips, and makes our damage spells cheaper before it does. It's easy to see why it's an all-star here.
[[Reverberate]] lets us copy something. Sometimes it'll be the counter that's trying to stop Jaya's Immolating Inferno. Sometimes it'll be the Immolating Inferno itself.
[[Reiterate]] is a multi-use reverberate, and we have the mana to use it.
STEP 4: THE REST OF THE DECK ThisIsn'tAStepButShhhhhh
HASTE
We want to give our creatures haste. [[Generator Servant]], [[Purphoros, Bronze-Blooded]], we can wheel away an [[Anger]] with ease, and [[Ogre Battledriver]] gives us a bit of oomph when our creatures enter the battlefield. Purphoros also functions as a sneak attack for when we want a creature to attack, but we don't have the mana to get it out.
DRAW
Look. We're in mono red, which means we have... one tutor that's halfway decent for our plan, and that's [[Gamble]]. We need draw. We're running a lot of it. [[Valakut Awakening]], [[Reforge the Soul]], [[Molten Psyche]], [[Magus of the Wheel]], [[Commune with Lava]], [[Cathartic Reunion]], [[Faithless Looting]] whatever we need to draw a whole ton, we have.
The real all-star draw card is [[Knollspine Dragon]]. Draw equal to damage to target opponent? In a burn deck? In a burn deck where our burn makes mana? Oh baby you best believe that when you slam this puppy down people are going to quake in their boots. From the dragon. And maybe from the Rolling Earthquake. Or the Molten Disaster. Whatever.
REMOVAL
We're not running much actual removal, because, well, A: Mono Red, and B: We're a player removal deck. If you want board control, or if you want a deck that doesn't feel like piloting a crashing roller coaster that is currently on fire, go play [[Zada, Hedron Grinder]]. We're here for the boom boom.
[[Vandalblast]] and [[Shattering Spree]] let us remove pesky artifacts, [[Blasphemous act]] removes board states for dirt cheap, and [[Chaos Warp]] lets us deal with one of anything.
[[Deflecting Swat]] is for anyone trying to touch our Lazotep Loverboy or for stack interaction when our [[Pyroblast]] fails to stop a counter.
LANDS
[[Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx]] is pure gas, [[Ancient Tomb]] gets Neheb out fast, and [[Rogue's passage]] gets us through chump blockers and deathtouchers if we need to swing with Neheb. Other than that, it's mountains, a [[Myriad Landscape]], and a [[Smoldering Crater]] to remind our opponents of the fate that awaits them and also some draw if we need it.
SIDEBOARD
For some, four X spells isn't enough. [[Fall of the Titans]] and [[Earthquake]] are easy to slot in, and for those who want more combat, [[Fury of the Horde]] is easy enough to get. [[Mana Geyser]] is great against landfall decks, [[Red Elemental Blast]] is good if your meta includes people who try to stop you from throwing the sun at them (Cowards.). If you want more draw, [[Apex of Power]] is a free draw 10 spell, and [[Dragon Mage]] is a [[Wheel of Fortune]] on a stick. Well, Magus of the Wheel is Wheel of Fortune on a stick ALRIGHT YOU GET IT.
UPGRADES
The easiest upgrade path for this deck is fast mana. [[Mana Crypt]], [[Grim Monolith]], [[Mana Vault]], [[Jeweled Lotus]] the faster you can pump out Neheb the better. They're not on this list because they're pretty goddamn expensive, and if you turn two Neheb people are going to focus you into the absolute dirt. [[Doubling Cube]] is neat, but honestly, it's just a but overkill.
Otherwise, upgrades include [[Wheel of Fortune]], your favorite Eldrazi Titan as a big ol' beater if you like the multiple combats, [[Sword of Fire and Ice]] is just the best damn sword we can get, and I'd say get [[Gauntlet of Might]] but for many people that card costs more than rent for the month, so just skip it.
GAMEPLAN
Step 1) Cast Neheb as fast as possible.
Step 2) Deal symmetrical damage, swing in.
Step 3) Go infinite with Aggressive Assault or cast a spell where X is, like, six trillion.
We're not interested in things like "Midrange" or "Control". No. We're Neheb. We're here to get high scores on the "How much damage can I make without going infinite" leaderboards. This is not a deck that does anything besides slam into people. It explodes. It goes absolutely haywire, totally off the rails, you'll need a calculator to check your mana.
This deck exists for one reason and one reason only: This deck is for Burn Timmies. Is it competitive? Eh. Does it win a lot? Eh. Does the fear in the eyes of your opponents make this deck worth it? Yes.
For your consideration, Nuclear Neheb: https://www.archidekt.com/decks/1072303#NUCLEAR_NEHEB
submitted by TheChowderhead to EDH [link] [comments]

My 1 Year Anniversary of Full Time Day Trading. 3 Years In The Business. What I Wish I Could Tell Myself Years Ago.

This industry has a lack of transparency so I'm more than happy to say I will provide lots of that throughout this post with screenshots. There are LOTS of imgur links to back what I say so it's not just words on a post expecting you to just believe what I'm typing.
This post I suppose is "Part 2" my post back in April, "After 2 years of Daytrading. 7 months full time. Here's my advice". I'm doing this to update everyone who came/comes across this in the future. Yes, it is possible. No, it won't be easy. You will pay homage to the rite of passage into this career. I'll also provide some examples of styles of trading so for the newer aspiring traders, there will be some things I rarely see discussed on forums. So here's to 1 year of Full Time Day Trading

TL;DR - You'll become desensitized to trading. Stubborn to other strategies (There are biggebaddemore lucrative strategies. Don't chase them. Why fix what's not broken? I know what works for me and I'm content with it. No strategy is better than another. It's a personal choice. ). Losing individual trades won't faze you, they're inevitable. Profiting certainly feels better. After a while, you won't be as enthralled to trade every morning, it'll become just another part of your day). Trading is just managing your money through a statistic and the medium to execute it is trading on your platform. Think: "If. Then. Because". Your trading plan should be that black and white. Ask "Why" for everything you do and use. If you can't answer it with documented results, drop it.


I get a bunch of messages all the time from people asking - . Out of those who follow me and chat me seeking further tips through my previous posts. I'll be answering the FAQ's and addressing things I see frequently in this sub as far as trading axioms
Disclaimer: I won't sugarcoat anything. I'll share my experiences and add pieces of advice I'd give to those who are currently experiencing the same thing becoming a full time day trader and what day to day life is like, the occasional distress, (DRAWDOWNS). Some of you follow my Twitter for the past few months where I post my daily watchlists with a snippet that reveals my DayTradingBuyingPower. I do this not to brag but to demonstrate that the account does yield growth, I pay myself, and there are days where the balance does not move because there was no edge. I also do this since nobody else shows their account performance. (Yes. You, Mr. YouTube gurus and wannabe gurus).
We do this for income, the numbers on our accounts are real. Treat it as such. Get your initial capital out of your account THEN try to "Scale your account" with your profits AKA The Market's Money.

I'll go over:
•FAQ's that I get in my inbox (I'm still welcome to further questions if I don't answer here)
•Decision Fatigue (You will experience this)
•The previous year (2019-2020) of ups and downs
•How to use my watchlists that I post on Twitter in the morning to your advantage
•The pivotal moment that changed my trading career (NFLX 10-17-19)
•The road to becoming a full time trader. (It won't be fun unless you're handed the money)
•You'll have a better grasp of my strategy (Between ProTip 4 and 5. ProTip 8.)

There are 10 "ProTips" throughout the post that I wish I could tell myself years back and I'll periodically throw them in here as the post goes on. I make posts long in order to segregate those serious about this business and those who will just become another statistic in the failure rate of this business.

At the end of this post, I'll go over the frequent questions I receive such as: (Answers to FAQ at bottom of post.)
  1. "How do you prepare for a trading day?"
  2. "What would you go back to tell yourself?"
  3. "Books?" (The most abused question, but I get it. I could start a public library with just trading books I bought over the years)
  4. "What is your background?"
  5. "What is a normal day for you?"
  6. "How did you discover your strategy?"
  7. "What did you do/How did you get started?"
  8. "What is your % return?" (Not a fun question since a trading account is not an index or investment account. Intraday traders do not measure performance in %. Most are measured in "R".)
  9. "Is enough to start trading?"
  10. "Why do you need so many monitors"? (This one is rarely asked but I do see it discussed on platforms and people trading on mobile phones love giving flack to anybody who trades on multiple monitors. Hint: Everyone's different. Whatever works for the individual. There are no rules in trading. The only rule is that it works.)

My story:

Background:
I heard about daytrading during the 2008 crash while in high school. We all want to make more while working less. I entertained day trading from time to time but always realized I never had enough money. Horrible mindset because I could have still researched WHILE saving money to put into my trading business.
2015 - I opened my first trading account with Scottrade while in the Marines. Apparently if you have a net worth of over $1,000,000 you can get out early (Biggest rumor ever).
I frivolously bought crap penny stocks. In short - I was a hair away from gambling. What made it NOT gambling was the fact that at least I owned something tangible (Securities of a company) and anything can happen. Buy low sell high was my strategy. Didn't work obviously. No idea what I was doing. I'd buy and hold hoping to wake up to the stock price being way higher and it never happened.

ProTip #1 : If you hold a trade overnight... It is not daytrading. Stop turning into an investor because you can't admit a minor defeat.

2017 - I started taking this business seriously while working in the oilfield as a Logistics Planner (If you're wondering what company since I am asked this from time to time, Google: "World's largest oilfield services company").
No kids, girlfriend/wife or financial obligations. I worked 10AM - 7PM CST and would trade the open from home for roughly 1 hour. Later I was offered to be a Data Analyst... Only downside was... I couldn't trade since I had to be at work now at 8AM CST during the market open. In the moment of signing the offer letter, I was bummed thinking, "No more trading,"
That wasn't the case though. You can still build your trading business with a 9-5 and while never making one trade. The data is there.

ProTip #2 : We all see the same data. It's there forever. Many strategies show their edge both live and in hindsight the same. (Especially if you trade patterns). You CAN build your business as a trader without even taking a trade. You CAN build your strategy while working a 9-5. Just because you're not trading, does not mean you can't build your business through research. You won't know how you'll react to the losses but at least you can diagnose the raw data with a large enough sample size for assurance and confidence.

If you have a 9-5 and want to go fulltime into this business. Stay for a bit, save, live so far beneath your means that it is almost miserable, (depending on your expenses, area you live, family etc) and get a few hundred sample sizes of your strategy! And for your PTO/days off... trade the open. I sacrificed my vacation days to trade.
After 2 years in corporate America, eating cheap food, never going out, saving relentlessly, I made the decision to just do it and resigned. I went straight into the ring of fire known as trading. That was on: September 23rd, 2019
"" (Sound familiar?)

When you hear these types of comments.. your response should be: "Nobody put the time I put into this. The 90%+ who fail, don't have it all written out, computerized backtests, manual backtests, statistics, SOP manuals, JUST like the job I have which is a business, I'm just another cog in their wheel. I'll just be wearing all the hats in my trading business. Instead of Oil&Gas, it's just for trading". One thing I see here a lot is people saying to trade X amount of months/years or make X.

ProTip #3 - Think in man hours, not calendar. Example:
Trader A puts in 1 hour of study/work/research everyday for 1 year. (365 Hours)
Trader B puts in 12 hours of work every day for 4 months. (~1,450 Hours)
Trader A lives in a major city while Trader B lives in the middle of nowhere. (Think cost of living)
2 totally different living expenses and 2 different calibers of dedication. I'd put my money on Trader B because he put in more man hours. (~1,000 more hours on the clock to be more exact).

ProTip #4 - Have a cushion in your account AND your personal bank account. Having a strategy is great but you won't know entirely if you can fulfill and execute your plan until you experience the ups and downs both short and long term. A strategy is constant over long periods of time... there will be days, weeks, and perhaps a month here and there where you aren't making much money. We hear all the time, "Trade like a casino". Casinos don't make money day after day but the odds are in there favor over the long haul.

Month 1 of full time trading was great:
Immediately after going full time, the first month (September 2019 to October 2019), I did super well. Business as usual. No stress. Everything going as planned. No turbulence. At least not like I had ever experienced...

The 2 prerequisites I had before resigning was:
  1. Show consistency in returns. Consistent Sharpe Ratio.
  2. Make a 4 figure trade (I achieved this while short 100 shares on ROKU September 20th, 2019 and even made a victory post if you scroll down my profile's posts.)

First life-changing trading lesson learned as a full time trader:
That money printing spree ended on NFLX October 17th, 2019. Less than 1 month of being a full time trader. Deviating and going against my plan I actually made $500 in a matter of 4 minutes. If you follow my watchlists on Twitter, I always trade with the direction of the gap. If I notate, "Long Watches" that means I will only trade it IF (and only IF) I see a long biased pattern. Likewise I will only be looking to short my "Short Watches". Plenty of times I'll call out a ticker and it immediately goes the other way. No harm no foul because there was no long biased pattern to confirm my thesis.
On 10-17-2019, I went against my plan and it worked.. NFLX gapped up to resistance and I went short when it tanked off of a short pattern.(This is known as fading). The market gave me a free lunch and then some. So now I'm walking on air in my mind:
"I'm an absolute unit"
"I'll do it again and clear another $500 to make it a 4 figure day before 9:30AM Central"
"Should have quit my job way earlier being this good."
Within 30 minutes of the open. I gave all $500 back. Yes I wanted to trade it back. Never have I had the desire to smash anything but I do understand those who do! Yes I stood there and felt like each passing second was wasted opportunity. The next 24 hours were long!

ProTip #5: It's circumstances like that that help you in the long run. FunFact: I never once deviated from my plan since. Not ever again.

"I could have paid for my groceries and electric for the month after 4 minutes of trading if I just took the free pass the market gave me" I felt dumb but in hindsight, I'm glad at what happened. It was this exact instance that married me to my strategy/business plan. The next day and the 7 trading days following. I didn't make 1 profiting trade. My longest ever drawdown - 11 straight trades. While researching I found out this was Decision Fatigue (I'll go over this shortly below)

Put yourself in that situation...
You have bills and your income is strictly trading. I don't care how much a robot you think you are or how strongly you believe in probabilities, when you were in an office less than a month ago making almost 6 figures sitting in an air conditioned office knowing direct deposit is on its way every other Friday no matter how well or poorly you performed at work.. Now you're in the hot seat. Its a bottomless feeling. Now all of your friends and families words are ringing in your head.
But just like a boxing match.. you gotta take a hit to get a hit. Win some, lose some, shake hands and get back to normal life. Water under the bridge.
Mind you:
•No guaranteed direct deposit every 2 weeks.
•No more medical/dental insurance.
•401K retirement is no longer being matched.

11 trades is nothing. You only require ~5.5 trades at 2:1RRR to make it back OR 3.5 trades at 3:1RRR. It's nothing especially in your research because you can easily just scroll a little more and see, "Oh that's just a drawdown. No big deal". How will you react in real time? Will you buckle or choke? But the thing is, I was skipping trades out of fear and JUST so happened to be picking all of the unsuccessful ones. (Decision Fatigue)
Think about those 2 weeks of being in a drawdown. Half of the month. You're not just stagnant, your account is bleeding slowly but surely. Next time you're looking at your spreadsheet/backtest/predictive model/research.. try to put yourself in those days of drawdown. It's not just 11 boxes of red with "-1R" or "Loss" in them. The screenshot above on Imgur is just a recent example.
Think about your daily routine, going to the gym, hanging with friends, grocery shopping, cooking, going to bed, waking up, doing a routine, then losing again.. and again.. and again. Try to think of life during those 300+ hours (Weekends too) of, "I haven't made money. I've lost money. And I still have bills. After paying them, I'll be closer to my set Risk of Ruin".
Here's a lesson you won't learn before going fulltime but I'll do my best to emphasize it here:
Pick a strategy. And stick with it. It can literally be anything. Don't spread yourself thin watching 20+ tickers and be a jack of all patterns/tickers. Be a master of 1 pattern and master of 1 circumstance. There's this real thing called "Decision Fatigue" which explains exactly why what happened.. happened. The article explains that the 2 outcomes of this mental strain known as "Decision Fatigue" is:
  1. Risky Decision-Making
  2. Decision Avoidance
Sound familiar? Does it kind of make sense now? As a new trader you have YouTube, Facebook, StockTwits, Twitter, "gurus", books recommended on Amazon, all throwing their ideas/strategies around, the market has opportunities littered all over.. Decision Fatigue is inevitable for the unprepared. Decision Fatigue happens in every profession. If you mess up at your 9-5, its just a blunder, your paycheck will remain the same. Just a slap on the wrist and move on. With trading, you make a mistake.. it's less food on your table, lights don't stay on, and/or water isn't running. That pressure adds up. No wonder so many fail...
The signs of Decision Fatigue:
•Procrastination.
•Impulsivity.
•Avoidance.
•Indecision.
When you find what clicks with you AND its either statistically or performance proven, have the courage to risk a healthy sum of your capital into it. There are strategies/patterns/styles of trading littered all over the internet:
Very broad example:
"IF circumstance happens THEN "Execution". Stoploss is XYZ. Target is XYZ. BECAUSE over a series of Y trades, I will make $X,XXX.xx".


ProTip #6 : Strategies are all over the internet. It's your account/money, backtest it. People share their strategies here all the time and although I don't agree with them because I know what works for me, it's something to chew off of for you newer traders. YouTube is a harbor with people who give just enough info to figure their style out. You will lose trades. Sit for some screen-time and pay homage to the edge that you discover. All in due time.

Insert key metrics and find correlations. This is how you create checks and balances to create/formulate a black and white trading plan. When I first started doing this, my spreadsheet(s) had so many columns it was annoying and would kill my desire to continue working. You'll find things that are imperative and some that are unimportant. For a lack of more colorful terms: "Throw stuff at the wall and see what sticks" Trim the fat. Rinse and repeat.

Here's some things I used to remind myself of and perhaps it'll ring some bells for you:

Surrender your capital to your edge. If you truly accept the risk and trust your proven edge, losses don't feel like anything nor do profits. Although we're not here to put on losing trades and yes it does feel nice to profit. I still from time to time will excited when I hit target after a series of multiple profiting trades depending on my mood.
If you're nervous or your heart starts beating quicker when you hear the sound effect of a trade getting entered/filled. Be honest with yourself and ask yourself if you're truly accepting the risk.
Things you can't take to the bank:
  1. RRR.
  2. Win-Rate
  3. Number of trades.
  4. "This one great trade that I hit target in less than 30 seconds and I got filled better than expected"
All of these are integral metrics. But you're trading to make money. It's up or down, green or red, profit or loss, TRUE or FALSE. So with that said, find what works flawlessly and is easy to follow. Checks and Balances. Then allocate a good sum of risk into it. I read it here all the time, "Don't risk too much" and that's great and true for new traders. But don't sell yourself short. Push yourself over the edge and admit that you know your stuff. Think of Trader A and Trader B. If you've put the time in.. don't sell yourself short. You've built enough courage to learn a business so many fail at. This business has such a negative connotation. But remember that not everybody can handle meritocracies and that's exactly what the market is. Don't try to be the best, just work harder than everyone else and the output of your input will be relative.


ProTip #7: YouTube trading ads from gurus... they're subconsciously making you think you're a novice trader. It's in their marketing. They study marketing psychology. The EASIEST things to sell:
  1. Health
  2. Wealth
  3. Happiness
People that are desperate for those things are the most vulnerable and these "Traders" marketers are fantastic at portraying all 3 of those things at once.


ProTip #8 (Broken record alert) : Write a business plan. Your strategy shouldn't take longer than 4 sentences to explain to another trader. When you have a plan that's proven through a statistic and WAIT for it to happen, you feel 100X better taking the trade. You don't even care too much when it results in a loss. Because that was your plan, you accept it much better, and you know it was just an expense for a winning trade.


Want my strategy? "I scan for stocks with a market cap of over 250M, 10k shares premarket, gapping to support or resistance, priced over $10, and I look for a pattern biased to the direction of the overnight gap. It isn't rocket science. Check my Twitter, look at the dates I posted, and you'll notice the gist. Yes this is an edge but not the entire edge. How fast can you sift through 15 time frames? How long does it take you to fill out your order ticket? Your Fibonacci time extensions with 5 EMA's and Bollinger Bands aren't helping you. They're lagging. If they work for you, great. In my experience, they hindered my visibility.


Pro Tip #9: Yes statistics are highly applicable to trading. Patterns do work. All patterns do is tell you WHEN to enteexit, and how many shares. Humans will never think differently of money. Be the frontrunner of the market's emotions. Nobody remembers the indecisive leader. Risk taking is a commonality amongst leaders. Trading requires courage and it's O.K. to show a bit of confidence as long as you also have the humility to admit when you're in a bad trade. (Notice how I didn't put, "wrong". You're only "wrong" when you deviate from a proven strategy.)


ProTip #10: Risk management is 24/7. I've never heard anyone mention this but think about it a little bit. Having financial obligations can become stressful regardless of how you earn your income but its far more stressful while running a business. Not just any business, but a business where you can go to work on your A-game, do every single last thing right, trade without emotion etc... and still walk away with less money than what you came to work with. Meanwhile somebody who JUST started trading made a 4 figure profit not knowing what the heck the difference between ETB, HTB, or NTB. Think of it like this, a JV high school baseball player can hit a homerun off of an MLB pitcher once.. but how will he fare at the end of the season? Traders don't predict stock prices, traders predict the outcome over hundreds of trades. People chat me asking what TO do rather than what NOT to do. You don't learn labor intensive jobs or how to fly a plane by what to do.. you learn what NOT to do to stay alive.

That's all I have. Once you have a trading plan underway and you're executing it, you don't have much time when your hobbies are cheap but I still do respond to chats/messages. I do get asked from a previous post when I'll build a website and to answer that: I'm learning how to build a site on rainy days. Can't put a definitive date on it. I will say that its coming, if you don't give up on this business in the next year or so, you'll see it. What I plan on putting on there:
  1. RiskReward Calculators
  2. Position size Calculators
  3. EV Calculator
  4. Dictionary with examples
I just don't want some generic WordPress site. I want my website to be stellar and a great resource for aspiring traders. Something I didn't have learning this business. I want it to be something I'd consider a staple in a trader's resources. Perhaps one day it will be referenced on this sub frequently.
FAQ:
  1. "How do you prepare for a trading day?" I get behind the computer about 20 minutes before the bell. Reason being: "If you study long. You'll study wrong". If the chart isn't grabbing my attention and gets me excited, then I flick to the next ticker. I don't even know the companies I trade half the time nor do I care about a news report some journalist wrote. Also there is no magic news outlet that lets you know about "Major events that affect stock prices". If there was, I wouldn't be here because we're all subscribed to the same edge nor would I be trading my style.
  2. "What would you go back to tell yourself?" Get more data. Save a little more, your hairline and sleep schedule will thank you. Take only perfect trades and don't feel forced to trade. There will be days you don't touch an order ticket. And days where you are busy and have tunnel vision. Next thing you know its time to shut it down for the day.
  3. "Books?" - I try to humble myself when answering this but off the cuff, they're all mediocre. Andrew Aziz's was ok, definitely get it, it's only a few bucks on Kindle. Just don't expect it to give you strategies BUT it will give you ideas. If you're brand new, it is good as it will teach you the common vernacular of a day trader. Mark Douglas was interesting but his YouTube seminar recordings are much better. No book, Facebook group, YouTube channel is going to be the end all be all perfect strategy. Expect losses. Don't be a one hitter quitter after suffering a few tiny losses/paper cuts. Stick to it. Most books will help you familiarize yourself with the common vocabulary amongst traders and will hint ideas. It's your job to formulate the strategy and template for research.
  4. "What is your background?" I was a logistics planner for a major oilfield services company. Later I then became a data/buyer analyst so yes, data analytics/research was a 2nd language for me entering trading. I did have that upper hand and did shave off months if not years for me.
  5. "What is a normal day for you?" I'm always done trading after 10:30AM Central. I will hold onto a trade until right before the bell if it hasn't hit either target or StopLoss by the time I leave the house but it is absolutely closed in entirety by 2:55PM Central. After I trade, I enjoy the day. No I'm not riding around in my Lambos posting IG/Snapchat (I have neither) stories of my profits with my private jet waiting on a runway trying to sell an $7 eBook or a $100 membership (HINT HINT). I grill/cook, read, workout, ride my motorcycle, attack my other sources of income (small businesses I'm building), hit the driving range, shoot guns, etc. I live in Texas. Life is cheap and fun here.
  6. "How did you discover your strategy?" I bought TradeIdeas premium, went through all of their computerized backtesting patterns, tested them. Then did what I mentioned earlier... Tried to find correlations in metrics. It distilled the trades to a strict criteria and here I am. I post on average 4-5 tickers on my watchlist. 7 max. I do not like spreading my attention thin across multiple tickers. I do not recommend buying TradeIdeas, it does have lots of bugs.
  7. "What did you do/How did you get started?" Was a data analyst, was good at research and applied it to trading. My incentive was, "I could have made more money trading rather than sitting in 2+ hours of roundtrip traffic and 9 hours in an office. The data is there. Everybody sees the same charts all over the world. There are ways to make this possible"
  8. "What is your % return?" (Not a fun question since a trading account is not an index or investment account. Intraday traders do not measure performance in %) I trade to make money AND pay myself, so my equity curve will look like a small loss or small gain after I pay myself. % return? I measure my account's performance in Sharpe Ratio and Risk Units. My Sharpe Ratio is ~1.85. While I yield roughly .8 - 1 R per trading day. Some weeks I make 10R. Some weeks I lose 2R. Yeah one week I might make $2,500. But the next week I might lose $300. The following week my strategy will yield $0 and the last week I might make $1,000. Some weeks suck. Some weeks are great. But overall. Just shy of 1R per trading day. Some days I'm super busy taking trade after trade. Some days I'll shut it down after 5 minutes without even filling out an order ticket. Some days I won't even see the open because there is no edge for me.. Keywords... "For me".
  9. "Is enough to start trading?" Depends on where you live. Are you restricted to PDT? If not then how much are you obligated to expenses? I live in Texas. Things are cheap here. If you live in NYC or The Bay Area your expenses will be astronomical compared to mine. A $30,000 account is totally doable for a single Texan with low monthly expenses. Now if you're in California or New York? I'm sure you'll fall below 25k if you have 1 bad month. Also depends on if you have other sources of income or a full/part time job. I encourage every trader and aspiring trader to have multiple sources of income, don't rely solely on trading. Not just for the sake of mitigating pressure but also for sanity. If you have a family to provide for, I don't know what that's like, you never know when Little Johnny is going to randomly pick up Trombone lessons for a school program/play while little Suzie needs transmission work in her car because a simple solenoid went out. $1,700 later.
  10. "Why do you need so many monitors?" I use 3 for trading. The 4th is for music. The other 2 are useless while trading. That's for trading though. When I made the decision to go full time, I knew I was about to go off the chain with research. And sifting between spreadsheets, a platform to see multiple timeframes for a pattern to backtest. My attention span is short, I'll lose my train of thought before I open the other tab to input data. But the main reason was for research. It's such a time saver and is a headache repellant when doing research while everything is laid out in front of you. Now that I have a system. I'll most likely be treating myself to 2 ultrawides for Christmas.
As always, thank you to everybody who takes time out to message me and letting me know some people read these and show appreciation. I would say, "Good luck" but there is no luck in trading. Just statistics. Remember that!
In conclusion: Yes. Full time trading is possible, depending where you live/monthly expenses and obligations. You're more likely to become a profitable trader than a professional athlete. There is a level of uncertainty each day, perhaps each week, doubtful each month, and definitely not each year. If I ever want a raise, I just consult my business plan and financials, then decide if I can handle it mentally. If you have medical issues, get a part time job for the benefits. If you're healthy, just be careful.

All the best!
-CJT2013
submitted by CJT2013 to Daytrading [link] [comments]

[Soulless verse] Twisted hell: Chapter 52

Chapter 1 | Chapter 51
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Several moons, at least half a year, have passed since Galizur left the camp near the portal. After reporting everything he saw and heard there to the heavens, emphasizing the Emperor’s demands, he was relieved of his task. With nothing better to do, he spent his days roaming the heavens, trying to find anyone who could know something more about the portal and anything related to it.
To his surprise, the information was very scarce. His fellow diplomats were oddly clueless about the subject. That was a new one, since the heavens were always very knowledgeable about what was going on in Greadinall. All its races would gladly share the information with the heavens, hoping to earn their favor. However, this time, everyone was eerily silent. It seemed as if every nation had a plan of its own, and wasn’t willing to share it. Some were even so arrogant to claim there’s no need for them to tell anything since the heavens see everything anyway.
That was hardly the case, but it was an elegant way to get the mortals to confess their sins. Making them think that somebody is always watching made them much more talkative. However, it seemed as if the mortals got wiser about it.
And what made it so strange was that all of them got wise about it at the same time. In other words, someone had a hand in it.
The logical culprit would be the high elves. Seeing themselves as superior to every other mortal race, they never liked that they needed permission to do anything. They’ve been doing their best to undermine The Timkik Empire for centuries, with the excuse being that the timkiks were too selfish and incompetent to rule Greadinall.
The heavens agreed. After all, the high elven logic made sense, and their arguments were solid.
It all started slowly and in a small way. Creating special, minor tariffs for the timkik merchants who wanted to sell outside of their homeland. Making it slightly harder for the timkik church to project its influence outside the Empire’s borders. But, with each new century, the high elves got progressively more aggressive. Not directly, it never got to the point where the high elves would directly challenge The Timkik Empire, but every century they’d find a new way to chip away a small piece of timkik strength.
Sensing that the Empire’s strength was slowly waning, the hosagian kingdom rose, demanding that the land that timkiks took from it a few millennia ago be returned. So, the war started, which lasted for several centuries now.
The high elves joined the hosagians but were unwilling to send their own to die in a war. So, they supported the hosagians from a distance, with coin, resources, and a few of their highly-skilled, veteran mages and Pegasi knights. Their navy also played a significant role, especially during the siege of Qalo, supplying the city through the port.
Their involvement stabilized the war, making it impossible for any side to win, draining both timkiks and hosagians in the process. The heavens realized what the high elves were doing but didn’t seem to care about it. After all, the mortals have every right to play their games, just how the heavens play their own.
And now, with their biggest mortal competitors exhausted, it seemed as if the high elves were trying to limit the influence of the heavens, the only force remaining in their way to dominate all of Greadinall. At least that’s what some angelic diplomats have concluded.
However, the others disagreed, with Galizur being one of them. Cunning as the high elves are, there was no way they would ever trick timkiks into opening a portal to hell. Yes, the high elves are cunning and unforgiving, but they’d never risk another fall just to obtain more power. They aren’t fools, far from it. What would be the point of spending centuries carefully navigating through the obstacles, only to have the demons ruin everything when they pour through the portal? In Galizur’s mind, the high elves have invested way too much to make such an uncertain, stupid gamble. After all, they’re known for their meticulousness. Taking risks is simply not their style.
So, someone else was pulling strings in this case. And what concerned Galizur the most was that whoever was behind the portal could also be behind the discord the high elves have created among the mortals.
In other words, the portal could be just a tiny portion of a much, much bigger plan.
But, putting that thought aside, the mortals have finally reached an agreement. It took them many moons to do so, but they did it in the end.
The agreement was that there would be no agreement. The Timkik Empire has rejected the heaven’s proposal, hosagian and high elven kingdoms have rejected the timkik proposal, while the rest of Greadinall couldn’t care less about what was going on.
And, what that meant was that at least three-quarters of its people weren’t interested in opposing the demonic invasion at its early stage. While timkiks, hosagians, and the high elves had a major influence over the continent, that didn’t mean they were the most numerous. They were just the loudest and the most aggressive.
The situation would be alarming if not for the fact that the timkik Emperor didn’t come crawling on all four during this time, begging for help. Expecting exactly that, the heavens have created a plan where the hosagian army, with some high elven and angelic support, would swoop in to contain the demonic hordes. The idea was that, once the demons have started invading, the other nations would realize the danger they’re in and would mobilize their armies. The plan also counted on the fact that the remnants of the timkik military would also join the fight. After all, their own homes would need some liberating.
But, the moons passed, without any news of the demonic hordes reaching the heavens. Not only that, there were no further requests from the timkik Emperor. You’d expect the ruler in such an epic pinch to be far more vocal and concerned about it but, instead, the timkik government went completely silent.
So, since no information was reaching the heavens, Galizur was sent once again to examine the portal. The excuse was very simple. Officially, he was to report how the interracial summit went to the portal-garrison commander. That way, even if timkiks were to complain about the unannounced visit, Galizur would present it as a goodwill gesture from the heavens. After all, one doesn’t share useful information with enemies.
---
Galizur didn’t have to land to realize that things have changed dramatically. First of all, there was no camp anymore! In place of the small camp with shaky palisade and ragged tents now stood a small town! Even from above, he could see its streets bustling with activity. Not wanting to spook the people, he landed some distance away, deciding it would be more prudent to approach the town on foot.
Before he has reached the town itself, he noticed two familiar faces approaching him, the dark-skinned military commander and his lighter-skinned knight companion.
“Ahoy!” The commander said heartily while raising his hand in greeting. Galizur gave him a deep nod as an answer, “I take it you want to speak with the royal archmage?”
“Indeed, can you please take me to her? I have some information she will find useful.”
“Please, come with us.”
Taking a better look at the commander, Galizur noticed that he was wearing some strange armor. It glittered in the sun, meaning it was made out of metal, but it wasn’t the plate armor he was used to. As strange as it sounds, it appeared as if the small pieces of metal were weaved together into an armor piece. However, he decided not to comment on it yet.
“Just the two of you came to escort me? I would expect you to have some more soldiers with you.”
“You didn’t come here to cause trouble, didn’t you?”
“Of course not.”
“Then, the two of us will do.”
As they approached the town, Galizur realized that most of the houses were made in a very simple manner, from wood. He couldn’t notice a single solid structure.
“Where did all these houses come from?” He asked, “I wasn’t here for a long time, but not so long for the houses to just pop up all over the place.”
Heartwell barked a small laugh: “The dwarves are to blame. Once they saw the trinkets the other world has to offer, they rushed to settle here. Most of the people in the town are dwarves.”
“Trinkets?”
“As it turns out, these demons are as good at creation as they are in destruction. But, Hazelmere will tell you more about it. I’m just a simple grunt, entrusted with your safety.”
Looking around, Galizur realized that what Heartwell was saying was true. Almost every second person he saw on the street was a dwarf. And it looked like all of them were busy, going about their business in a rush, not paying much attention to an angel who has descended from the heavens.
“We even have a market here now,” Heartwell said, “if you follow the clamor, you’re bound to find it. A lot of merchants from all over the Empire come here to trade. Dwarven merchants too.”
“So, people aren’t worried about the portal? About the demonic invasion?”
“Not at all.”
“I take it there are some good reasons for such enthusiasm?”
“Yeah, there are several of them. But our commander will explain it much better than I can. She’s far more eloquent than a simple peasant like me.”
They continued along the dirt-paths which acted as the streets, connecting the houses into neatly arranged rows. Even though everything about the town was simple, the orderly arrangement made it clear the dwarves have had a significant part in its construction.
The town was tiny, so it didn’t take long for them to reach their destination. It was a warehouse-sized building, looking far sturdier than the buildings surrounding it. It wasn’t made from stone, but the wood was clearly of the far more durable sort. It also had two floors, making it resemble a decently successful tavern in a way, putting aside the difference in size. Galizur noticed some very interesting details on it, like the Empire’s coat of arms, surrounded by several dwarven ones. He was also surprised to see that such a building, made from wood, had glass windows on it.
With perfectly transparent glass at that. Something Galizur hasn’t seen on the biggest, most luxurious mansions.
Entering the building, Galizur was greeted with more strange sights. There was an unfamiliar big, round object, high on the wall, with numbers arranged on its edges. Some strange, vertically placed, white tables, with all kinds of differently colored words written all over them. A big mirror with a perfect reflection, so perfect Galizur had to stop for a moment to check if another angel is in the building.
And, the strangest of it all were the people rocking in their chairs, everywhere around him. Some of them rocked themselves back and forth as if possessed, while the others would spin around. After some time, Galizur realized the people were perfectly fine. They were just sitting in some weird chairs.
“Oh …”
“Oh, no …”
Galizur realized what that meant but maintained his composure. He remembered Hazelmere warning him about this, and he did his duty reporting that to the heavens, stressing the logical argument the timkik mage has presented him with.
However, while the heavens were too busy sorting out the mortals’ disagreements, the demons have clearly opted not to waste any time and act as soon as possible.
“That explains why the dwarves got so invested in this place. And why they aren’t afraid of the portal,” he thought, “as long as their greed is satisfied, they are fearless.”
Heartwell and Vukasin led him to the upper floor. The stairs didn’t creak as they climbed them, confirming that this place was built with durability in mind.
“So, they are here to stay.”
Passing through the corridor, his escort led him into a very spacious, bright room decorated with a lot of furniture.
The furniture looked quite alien. The table and the chairs were too thin to support their own weight, let alone anything else, while the two sofas left the impression of elegant …
… nothingness.
Two white tables stood vertically, with all kinds of scribbles on them, identical to those on the ground level.
“Welcome! Welcome!” Cheerful Hazelmere greeted him, not giving him the time to take a better look around the room, “I was eagerly awaiting your return!”
“Ahoy,” Galizur responded politely, “I am glad for such a warm welcome, but I feel bad for making all of you take the time of your day just to greet me.”
There were quite a few people in the room. Not counting Hazelmere, Heartwell, and Vukasin, four archmages, an archpriestess, and three dwarves were also present.
“Oh, we would be here anyway! We are here all day, every day, examining the things from the other side!”
“So, the demons aren’t sending just the books now?”
“Yes! They became far more generous. Of course, we are sending some of our own gifts in return, like you have suggested we should do!”
“No, I didn’t…”
Galizur remembered, how he was the one to encourage Hazelmere to send some books to the demons as a sign of goodwill, saying that the goodwill the demons have shown should be returned.
It has certainly bought the heavens the time they desperately needed, but he never expected it to backfire like this.
“Is something wrong?” Hazelmere asked.
“No, I just … I am just surprised by how the things are playing out.”
“We are surprised too! We can’t believe it! For a bunch of frost-dwelling demons, these people certainly have a lot to show! And teach!”
“Teach?”
“Yes! The dwarves are obsessed with their mathematics! Especially the ones that calculate the behavior of objects! I heard that the dwarves have a racial affinity for math, but it looks like these demons have them beaten.”
Galizur looked at the present dwarves uncertainly.
Wyvernshield just shrugged: “Just like the lass says. They have a far better numerical system based on tens and have far superior logical operators.”
“They can even calculate the trajectory of celestial beings!” Another dwarf couldn’t keep his mouth shut.
For the first time, Galizur’s face showed the slightest of frowns. His big wings rose slightly.
“What did you say?”
“Don’t take it the wrong way, the lad is just too enthusiastic. We aren’t sure about that yet. We’re still experimentin’ with those equations.”
“Need I remind you that the demons are famous for their deceit?”
“Aye, which is why we’re testin’ everythin’ they claim.”
Hazelmere jumped between Galizur and the dwarves, an uneasy smile on her face.
“Anyway, I take it you bring us some news? What is going on with the other nations? Will they be coming to help?”
The joyful enthusiasm in Hazelmere’s voice made it easier for Galizur to forgive the insulting implication.
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Chapter 53
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submitted by Ljegulja to HFY [link] [comments]

The difference between Colby's and Woo's move at final 3

Colby brought Tina to the end solely because he wanted to bring a worthy opponent. He didn't bring her because he believed he could win. He actually acknowledged he'd have beat Keith, but only had a 50% chance against Tina at best. He knew he was taking a gamble, but was ok because he wanted to be the good guy. There was zero strategy in his decision. Based on his morals.
Woo brought Tony in order to be honorable, similar to Colby. However, that wasn't the only reason he brought Tony. Unlike Colby, Woo genuinely believed that voting out Kass and bringing Tony would help him win the game. He believed he'd earn points from the jury for bringing a worthy opponent. There was a certain amount of strategy behind his decision. Woo, while wanting to be honorable, genuinely believed he had a shot of beating Tony. Woo's decision was half moral, and half calculated.
The difference between the two is that Woo's move had a certain amount of strategy and calculation, while Colby's decision was solely out of morals. This is why I say Woo made the worst move, and Colby's move should not be in the dumb moves categories. Even if you do include Colby on this list, Woo's move would definitely be worse.
Btw, anyone that says Kass could have won, I don't buy that. That's all Kass's take and revisionist history.
submitted by Jr437 to survivor [link] [comments]

Extensive list of "improvement notes" I used to climb from Silver to Plat with Yuumi

I recently climbed to Plat for the first time playing nothing but Yuumi, and wanted to share some notes I compiled along the way. Ever since high Silver, after each game, I would try to think hard about mistakes I made, going back to watch the replay if necessary. If anything stuck out, I would make an "improvement note" in a text file. These really added up after a while, and I have pasted the entire list below. Those closer to the top are more recent. There may be a few typos here and there -- feel free to ask if you don't understand something.





































































Hope at least some of these are useful to fellow Yuumi fans!
submitted by Runic_Bistro to yuumimains [link] [comments]

gambling winnings calculator video

This is when a lottery tax calculator comes handy. Jump to the Lottery Tax Calculator. How are lottery winnings taxed under federal and state? Lottery winnings are considered ordinary taxable income for both federal and state tax purposes. That means your winnings are taxed the same as your wages or salary. Before making any bet, it helps to know what you're risking for the expected payout. Enter Your 'Bet Amount' - that's what you're risking, along with the American, fractional or decimal odds. See what your total payout and winnings will be. Calculate bet returns for Accumulators, Lucky 15's, Doubles, Trebles, Football, Horse Racing and more. The most comprehensive and reliable bet calculator. Bet Calculator. Being able to calculate how much a bet returns for any given stake is one of the basics of betting and our Bet Calculator simplifies this process for bettors. A bet can be broken down into two elements; the Stake - how much you risk, and the Payout - your potential return including your Stake. Your gambling winnings are generally subject to a flat 24% tax. However, for the following sources listed below, gambling winnings over $5,000 will be subject to income tax withholding: Any sweepstakes, lottery, or wagering pool (this can include payments made to the winner(s) of poker tournaments). For many of us, gambling means buying the occasional lottery ticket on the way home from work, but the Internal Revenue Service says that casual gambling also includes raffles, casino games, poker, sports betting—and, yes, even fantasy football. When you win, your winnings are taxable income, subject to its own tax rules. Should You File as a Professional Gambler / Poker Player or Remain a Recreational Gambler? Professional Gambler Tax Calculator - Estimate the tax impact of filing as a Professional or Recreational Gambler ; Other Resources - Other information related to gambling taxes . So, you are finally a consistent winner at your local poker room, casino, or race track. American Odds are the default odds at American sportsbooks. These odds are based on winning $100 for a given bet. Betting a Favorite: The odds for favorites will have a minus (-) sign, and represent the money you need to risk to win $100. So if you're betting on the Packers at -140 against the Vikings, that means Green Bay is a slight favorite. However, you can only deduct your loss up to the amount you report as gambling winnings. So, you should keep: An accurate diary of your gambling winnings and losses; Documentation of your gambling activity that can be verified; How Winnings Are Reported to the IRS: Form W-2G. The payer must provide you with a Form W-2G if you win: Making a bet can be confusing. Let us help! Follow these simple steps to figure out how much to bet. Select a bet amount in the left column. Select a bet type in the right column. Select the horses to include in the wager. The total cost of the ticket will appear next to the words Ticket Cost

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