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GMBL- UP OVER 50% from my last post 5 days ago
This was given an 11 price target (closed over that today) but I think this will be a good long term hold and here is why. The CEO/founder has been involved with online gambling since 1996(!!!). Also, their CIOJohn Brackens was an Activision Blizzard networks manager. They've been in purchase mode recently and bought ggCircuit, a B2B cloud-based management for LAN centers, a tournament platform, and integrated wallet/point-of-sale solutions for enterprise customers. ggCircuit has over 1,000 connected locations and has worked with enterprises such as GameStop, Dell, Best Buy and Lenovo as well as universities such as Ohio State, Syracuse and North Carolina. Their ggLeap product has over 60 million hours of usage by over two million unique gamers on tens of thousands of public gaming screens inside centers worldwide. Also, they bought Helix esports. Helix eSports owns five esports centers, including two of the five largest centers in the US, where they deliver world-class customer service, esports programming and gaming infrastructure. ALSO, they bought Esports Gaming League (EGL). HAS OVER 350K registered gamers. "EGL is a great addition to our growing operations and further strengthens our ability to execute on our three-pillar strategy," commented Grant Johnson, CEO of Esports Entertainment Group. "EGL technology underpins the esports programs for some of the world's best-known sports franchises, including the LA Kings, Philadelphia Eagles, and Arsenal Football Club. We plan to build on this strong foundation moving forward, driving near-term revenue growth and long-term shareholder value improvement." You see the trend, and there is more companies than I listed purchased in the past twelve months. Another thing to consider: -$4.3 Billion in Bets Placed on Super Bowl LV Online bets skyrocketing up by 63% with no signs of slowing -36 million more Americans can now legally bet compared to one year ago, with the addition of Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, Montana, Tennessee, Virginia and Washington, DC. How does this translate to this company? People are showing a willingness to bet and it's available to a wider audience than ever before. Here is what I posted before: Business: egaming platform for gambling and tournaments. They also have other gambling functions, I believe egames you can gamble on is something they just bought (lucky dino). They also partnered with the Philadelphia eagles to provide esport tournaments, last month I believe, first partnership with a professional team and an egaming gambling site(this was prior to SKLZ). More partnerships could lead to growth as no other professional franchises have a partnership yet for tournaments. Financials: heavy dilution this past year, just started generating revenue in Q3, negative net income. The company they just bought is internet gambling site they just bought had 21M in revenue last year, est 28M for 2021. Company has very low debt, biggest liability is warrant liability of a few million. 8M of cash on hand, could get through at least 2 quarters without any additional positive cash flow (potentially some more dilution i would imagine). Small institutional ownership (1%) but large insider ownership (35%) Financials drop Feb 20th, so some DD on this let me know what you think. This company is worth around 150M(on 2/8), for comparison draftkings is over 46B and cathie wood also entered this sector buying draftkings so this could be on her list also.
[Table] I'm Jeff Galak, Professor of Marketing & Social and Decision Science at Carnegie Mellon University. I have published dozens of academic papers on decision making, consumer behavior, and more. I have also recently launched a new YouTube channel called Data Demystified. AMA! (pt 1/3)
Source | Signoff Note: This table may potentially contain information that can be construed as self-doxxing. Please don't actually try to take advantage of this.
Questions
Answers
Hey Jeff! I'm a minimalist & find that I'm happier with less stuff & when I give/receive experiences rather than items. Do you find consumer happiness reflects this shift towards minimalism since that is a (small, but seemingly growing) trend, especially among Millennials?
Great question! There is some relatively new research looking at happiness from experiences vs. material possessions. Most of it shows that happiness from equally valued (e.g. price) experiences is higher than for possessions. HOWEVER, and this is a big however, all that work tends to ignore long run happiness with highly prized possessions. For instance, if you have a sentimentally valued object, happiness that stems from that object lasts for a long time. What most possessions don't do is provide long lasting happiness. You buy a new shiny toy and it DOES make you happy...but that happiness goes away quickly. My collaborators and I have termed this idea "Hedonic Decline."
So as for minimalism, there is not evidence that I know of that shows that less possessions make you happier. There's plenty showing that more possessions don't make you happier, but that's not the same thing.
One more layer of complexity: there are two routes to happiness: hedonic and eudaimonic. The former is what we usually think of when we think of happiness: how much joy does XYZ bring me. The latter, however, is closer to self-actualization. It's the happiness the comes from a accomplishing something....even if there was pain involved in getting there. I wonder if minimalism can increase eudaimonic happiness.
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That's interesting. Thank you for responding. In the minimalism community, self-actualization is reflected in endeavors such as achieving certain goals (like, paying off debt) that usually involves some amount of self-discipline &/or self-sacrifice.
I'd say that the vast majority of research in happiness excludes eudaimonic happiness, largely because it's so hard to measure. My personal, non-data supported, take is that eudaimonic happiness is far more important than hedonic happiness. The latter is fleeting, whereas the former can be life changing.
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Beautifully said.
Thank you.
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How does depression affect eudaimonic happiness compared to hedonic happiness?
Great question and I don't know the answer. Social Psychology typical studies what we very poorly term "normal" psychology, which excludes clinical conditions like depression. Sorry!
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What’s your take on “pay to play” - as in, some “hedonic” purchases at are required to signal you’re in the game, making progress on eudaimonic happiness. When you get older and into your career, I’d venture many people have already figured out that hedonic happiness doesn’t do squat long-term, but there’s a balance in terms of how much hedonic happiness to have to acquire for the ultimate long-term eudaimonic happiness. Example: in sales, which I’m in tech analytics sales, companies want to spend for solutions to business problems, but they also want to see, visually, that the person they’re paying is a good representative for them. High cost equals a person that can represent that taste. Nice. Tailored suits, a nice watch and latest tech gadgets. There’s a pay to play aspect that signals to the world who I am, and that in turn actually allows me to get what I want- student loans paid off and early retirement..
I don't think there's any conflict here. If you will find some form of life satisfaction by succeeding in your career, there's no harm in also purchasing items that help you reach that goal. Those items can, in and of themselves, make you happy...nothing wrong with that. More to the point, hedonic and eudaimonic happiness don't have to be in opposition. You can have both!
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I really like this response. While i can jive with basic premise of experiences over possessions...i’m find it used a lot by people who actually just want to shirk obligation. I run HHiring and there is a persistent trend of people not wanting to act like their job is important..just because it’s easier to justify bailing on work/shifts to go do things when you can say you’re doing it for the experience, not focusing on the money you make at a job. I’m trying to figure out the best way to respond to people who think i’m some big bad money grubbing boss for wanting people to do their jobs. Meanwhile, in my personal life...i feel like i’m getting a lot of push back socially from people who think i should only work where i can just make my own schedule and dip put for an “experience” whenever. At the end of the say, it feels like people will just wax philosophic reasons for demanding leisure with all the material perks of having jobs and working.
Great point. This relates to intrinsic vs. extrinsic motivation. The former is the desire to do something because it's inherently interesting/rewarding. The latter is doing something for compensation. This is more in the realm of organizational behavior, and you'll have to wait for my wife who is also a professor, but of organizational behavior and theory, to do an AMA for more on that :)
Hello, thanks for doing this. Are you familiar with "loot boxes" in video games? I feel like the topics of a lot of your papers would fit right into why consumers/businesses use loot boxes. How does a loot box mechanic differ from gambling and should it be treated the same? (Regulation, age restriction, etc) If they are the same, how do you feel about video games including a loot box mechanic? Sticking with gambling parallels, what are your thoughts on video game companies targeting "whales" given that gamers can be any age nowadays?
I'm not a gamer myself (though I do love TTPRGs and run a D&D 5e campaign), but I'm pretty familiar with loot boxes. Mobile games and social media platforms in general have become very good at continuous reinforcement. It can be the allure of getting a new outfit in a loot box or just an upvote on Reddit...the point is that we are wired to love small rewards, even if those rewards are meaningless. Casinos have mastered this art and loot boxes are an capitalizing of the same basic psychological mechanisms: need for positive reinforcements. So are loot boxes the same as gambling? Probably not the SAME, but damn close. As for regulation, I am strongly in favor of making gambling of all forms only accessible to adults and even then providing access to counseling for those who suffer from gambling addiction.
I have a lot less sympathy towards wealthy adults who choose to gamble as a form of entertainment. The problem is that it's not always obvious who's a whale and who's just pretending to be one for the attention. The latter is highly susceptible to financial ruin and I'd want them protected just the same as they are with standard gambling.
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Do you find the researcher in you observing and asking questions about the players' decision making processes in your D&D campaign? My old DM minored in psychology, and I often felt like a rat in his experiments. I enjoyed it, though. It kind of added an extra facet to the game.
More than my research, teaching has made a huge difference in being a DM. When I lecture, I am forced to be quick on my feet to understand student questions, reply accordingly, and make sure that I'm moving the lecture along. That is the same with DMing. I need to be able to understand the motives of my players, respond appropriately with NPCs, and keep the story going.
I'm sure that my knowledge of psychology helps, but I wouldn't think it influences the way I DM (or play) that much.
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Studying business Psychology in Switzerland and leading the yawning portal atm, seems like I need to start teaching :p
Ha! Sorry, no. It's just close friends and we're months into it. I'm running Waterdeep, if you're curious.
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I'm applying to Carnegie's MBA for what it's worth! If I'm accepted, may I join then? ;-)
How about you get in and then we discuss!
Hi Jeff! What is your favorite heuristic or logical fallacy when it comes to decision making? Can you teach us about one that people might not know about?
Easy: Diversification Bias. That's where I started my career 15 years ago. I didn't discover this bias, but have built on it. Anyway, it's the idea that people choose more variety than they should. For example, if you are going to pick some snacks for the next few days, you might pick: chips, pretzels and an apple. Those are fine, but really chips are your favorite and you picked the other two because you thought you'd get tired of chips every day. Well, turns out you'd be wrong. A day is enough to reset satiation/hedonic-decline in most cases, so you'd be better off always picking your favorite option! Doing otherwise means eating snacks that are less preferred.
A new one that my doctoral student, Julian Givi, and I recently published: The Future Is Now (FIN) Heuristic. It's the idea that people believe that future events will be like present events, even when evidence points to the contrary. An example: if it's sunny today, you're more likely to think it'll be sunny tomorrow, even if the forecast clearly predict rain. What happens is you treat information about the present as having evidentiary value for future events, even when that's just not true.
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I really like that you give your student credit.
PhD students do all the hard work. Professors just bask in the glory :)
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I think diversification bias is how I ended up with 5 shades of blue nail polish that are virtually undistinguishable from each other! Interesting to consider.
Ha! Just might be...
Tell me about your paper "Sentimental value and gift giving: Givers’ fears of getting it wrong prevents them from getting it right". From what I read of the abstract, it seems that gift-givers undervalue sentimental value, seeing it as riskier. Why is that, and how can we give better gifts?
Sure, this is a paper with my former doctoral student, Julian Givi. Basically, people are risk averse in gift giving when they shouldn't be. If I know you like coffee and I have a choice to give you some nice coffee beans or a framed photo of the two of us (presumably since we're friends), I give the former b/c it's a sure bet. But as the recipient, overwhelmingly, people prefer the latter. So givers should take the risk and give the sentimentally valuable gift over one that is more a sure bet.
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Interesting. When giving presents, givers focus too much on the recipient's known wants, which gets in the way of giving a meaningful present. Thank you! I'll be sure to keep that in-mind next Christmas.
That's exactly it.
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I sometimes hesitate at this. I don’t want to come off as the selfie culture of all about me in pictures! But relatives do love getting pics of the kids for gifts. Still, how often is this perceived as a form of narcissism by the gift receiver? Edit: pictures of my kids not just me!
One trick we do: every Christmas holiday we print full size calendars with our kids pictures on them. That's our holiday gift to all the grandparents. They LOVE it.
We also send small photo books to the grandparents throughout the year of some of the best pictures we take.
We have yet to send too many, but that's specific to our family.
The best advice I always have for something like this is: just ask! People are often worried about asking gift recipients about their preferences, but our research shows that a) recipients don't care about being asked and b) you can give better gifts that way.
Hi Jeff ! I have a question regarding involvement in a purchase, is there an increasing trend to become highly involved in the purchase of even low value object ? I find myself doing this during the pandemic doing comparison searches for a bulb which costs 10 dollars. Is this an exception ? Or is there some underlying psychological reason isolated to me ?
Absolutely. Two reasons this could be happening. 1) With more free time, the threshold for what merits deep research drops a lot. 2) Many people are facing financial hardships, and so making sure every dollar is well spent becomes really important.
Hi Jeff, Thank you for the great AMA. Where do you see the future of insights departments in consumer companies? Most companies looks like giving up on ethnographic and in person research and focus on data analytics. I speculate management is under great pressure and in the meantime aspire to Google, Amazon etc. What is your take of insights departments future in large companies?
Thank you! Exploratory research like ethnographies, interviews, and focus groups is really useful for brainstorming. But they are a poor substitute for quantitative data. Now, that doesn't mean "big data"...just data that has larger samples and is better representative of populations. Surveys are still amazing. When we want to forecast an election, we don't use big data, we conduct a political poll. They work.
But yes, right now, AI and machine learning are the hot new ideas on the block and everyone wants in on them. There is plenty of amazing applications of AI/ML, but what they can't do is tell you "why". As in, why did someone choose this option over that one? Or why are people motivated by this goal or that goal? Those types of answers allow you to apply knowledge in completely novel contexts. AI/ML needs to be trained on a specific type of data for a specific type of task. It is AMAZING at that. But as soon as you introduce a new context or new set of experiences, it fails. That's where good old fashioned surveys and behavioral experiments come in.
If a program was built to help us make better decisions, do you think we would use it? Do you think we can listen to a program’s advice better than we do from experts?
We already do. Weather forecasts tell us how to dress. Facebook tells us what to think. Tinder tells us who to date. Etc... etc...
A program that EXPLICITLY tells you what to do won't work too well. People like to feel like they have free will. They don't, though. We are greatly influenced by our environment (not just technology) whether we know it or not. As one example: I can guess your weight reasonably well just by knowing your zip code (please don't make me actually do this as I'm not in the business of public shaming!). If we had true free will and agency, that should be impossible. Instead, we are the products of our environment.
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60641
Chicago? I believe Illinois has 30-35% obesity (I'm doing this quickly and not looking at your zip specifically), so pretty high weight.
Hi Jeff! Since I'm a 14 yrs old and knew nothing about what you study, I have very limited questions I can ask. But as I have observed, people are often sheepish and will consume as the trend goes. What is the most unexpected trend, worldwide? P.S. will defo check out your channel
I don't expect most people to know my work (I like to think my ego isn't THAT big!), so no worries!
You're right. Trends will drive a lot of human behavior. We are social creatures and follow what others do much more than we care to admit. As for the most unexpected trend, that's really hard to say. Maybe this is too broad, but I'm surprised by how short people's attention span is when it comes to current events. News cycles used to last for weeks, now they last for hours. I suppose I know that people don't have long attention spans, but I'm still surprised.
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Any underlying reasoning for this?
For the short attention spans? We can invoke evolutionary psychology, which I'm not a big fan of, and it would suggest something like a tensions between exploring and cultivating. So it would argue that our ancestors needed to have some reason to leave their immediate tribe to find new resources. So perhaps our attention spans are short b/c of this and the current environment exaggerates that behavior.
Have you done(or can you point to) any research relating to the decision making/not making around getting rid of possessions? I have a relative who keeps anything that has a perceived value as in could be sold on ebay/garage sale which they never sell. They are otherwise rational, clean, don't over consume..def not hoarder territory.. but I struggle to convince them that the old digital camera that's been sitting for 3 years could just be disposed of.
Hoarding is definitely a thing. There isn't much in the study of item disposition in the empirical world of research (lots of interesting qualitative work that I'm less familiar with). The big exception to this is the Endowment Effect. The short version is that you value items you own more than if you don't own it. So a mug sitting on a store shelf is worth, say $10 to you, but as soon as you own it is worth, say, $20 to you. Nothing changed except your ownership of it. That explains some of hoarding behavior, but not all of it.
I suppose I have the Endowment Effect. Everytime I find something valuable i dont have the will to let it go. Even though i can sell it and re buy it later, or buy something similar haha. It's like I want to take the most of it and use it til it brakes, go missing, or whatever.
The endowment effect isn't infinite. As in, it's not that you won't be willing to sell your items for ANY price, it's just that your willingness to sell is higher than your willingness to buy.
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Hey Professor, appreciate the AMA. A couple of questions: 1) Just from my own thoughts banging around in my head and observations I've made during the pandemic, do you see the pause our society went through and the economic downturn effecting the psychology behind materialism? It seems the American "push for more no matter what" mind state took a eating and I think I'm seeing some consequences of that.
1) It's possible, but my pretty strong prediction is that within 1-2 years of the pandemic ending, we will be back to where we were beforehand in terms of materialism and general behavior. Extreme events like a pandemic seem like they are life changers. For some, that's true (e.g. someone loses a loved one), but for most it's not. We are inherently myopic and think that the thing in front of our noses is the only thing that exists.
2) I'm a current medical student and we get inundated with so many studies that it's overwhelming. Trying to practice evidence based medicine is really hard in an atmosphere that prioritizes publishing with little regard to quality. Do you ha e ways of navigating that I could apply to my day to day? Thanks again.
2) I can't speak to medical research, but that problem exists in all academic fields. The best thing to do is to let science happen. There will always be flashy new findings, but the ones that really matter will get replicated over and over again...and will get built on. The BS ones tend to just die out. That's not a full proof approach to vetting research, but it's better than just assuming everything you see published is true and/or important.
I am a former CMU student. How do you feel about CMU's decision to appoint Richard Grenell as a senior fellow? And how can we do something to fight against it because it seems they are not listening the current student body? Recently, the fence was vandalized against BLM (they wrote "all lives matter" over the previously written "black lives matter"). How are you working to build a more inclusive community at CMU and to fight for those who need it? How can former students help?
I signed the petition to revoke his appointment and stand by that completely. I do understand why the university is upholding it, but I am embarrassed to have him associated with CMU.
As for the fence, the CMU Provost sent a really great letter immediately after it all happened condemning the vandalism and supporting BLM. Personally, I try VERY hard to do things like call on students of all races and genders and not let white men (of which I am one, btw) dominate conversations. I try to make sure that examples I use to highlight ideas include more than just typically white and/or male oriented products. I have been trained in Green Dot deescalation for sexual assault and violence. I am on the university academic disciplinary committee and have direct say over infractions like harassment or discrimination. And I sit on my college's Faculty Diversity Equity and Inclusion committee with the hope of including representation and inclusion of URM and female faculty. I care about this topic a LOT and do what I can...still probably not enough.
As for alums, if you see behavior at CMU that you think is antithetical to inclusiveness, let the administration know. Get your fellow alums to weigh in. The university wants your sweet sweet alumni donations. If you are all pissed off, they'll reply.
Hey Professor! I absolutely love to give. But I feel so awkward being thanked. And I dont really like receiving gifts. What would the psychology behind that be?
Great question. It's hard to know without more detail, but I'd guess that some of that anxiety is about attention...as in, your lack of desire for it. As for not liking receiving gifts, maybe you have just not received that many good gifts? Again, it's really hard to say without knowing a bit more about you and the gift giving contexts you're involved in. If you want to share more, I can try to answer better, but totally understandable if you don't!
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Well, if I think more deeply....whenever I need something, I feel like it's up to me to make me happy. I usually don't really ask anyone else. Whether I need a massage, have a getaway, or get my dream dog, I just do it myself.
As an aside, self-gifts are great! You get what you need, and nothing else. No issues there.
To your question, though, I do wonder if you just haven't receive that many great gifts. Yes, gifts can fall flat and the recipient might not love them, but when they hit, they not only provide the value from the gift itself (e.g. a great bottle of wine) but ALSO the sentimental value from the associations that the gift brings up (e.g. who gave it to you and under what circumstances...like for a birthday or graduation).
Hi Jeff, I have a job application at a place where they do conjoint analysis, something I have never done before. Got any tips? Do you have any thoughts on the technique in general? Personally as someone who takes surveys I find it very abstract (e.g. "Would you rather buy a $5 toaster with two slots vs. a $20 toaster that takes bagels?" I don't know!).
First, good luck with the job application! Conjoint is a really useful tool when used correctly (like any tool, I suppose). The short version is that it lets you extract utility weights for different dimensions (e.g. price, product size, product speed, etc...) without directly asking people to answer questions about those dimensions. So instead of saying "how important is price to you?" you would come up with product profiles that have varying price (among other things) and then have people choose between those profiles. You can then extract, using nothing more than regression analysis (though, practically, no one does it that way...they use software like Sawtooth or SPSS Conjoint), how important those dimensions are for any given person.
the technique is tedious in that respondents have to make LOTS of pair-wise comparisons, but the end product can teach you a lot about what people actually value.
One key is to make the task as simple and realistic as possible. So the example you gave is confusing and wouldn't work too well. But I asked you to choose between a $20 toaster with 2 slots vs. a $30 toaster with 3 slots" that would work (in reality it would be more complex than that). You'd be forced to tell me if you prefer a cheaper toaster with fewer slots or a more expensive one with more slots. There's not right answer, but I would learn about those two dimensions for you. I'd need a lot more pair-wise tradeoffs to do this right, but that's the general idea.
Do you find that there are significant differences between particular groups? Does age influence gift giving habits more then sex, or some other factor? Just curious about the general trends of gift giving between groups. Super general question I know, so feel free to just call me out on it
Definitely difference across genders as you would expect. More jewelry given by men to women. More gadgets given by women to men. Not so much in terms of age, though I've never really directly looked at that. The reality is that most gifts aren't that exciting. They tend to be things that are popular in a given year or old standbys like gift cards and ties. There certainly are amazing gifts and gift givers out there, but the vast majority of actual gifts given are pretty mundane. But that's not a bad thing if the recipient still likes what they get!
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Yeah, sounds about right. And yeah if everyone is chipper it's all good :) Is there a sort of gift quality vs quantity data? Like is it better to get more frequent smaller gifts or largemore expensive gifts less frequently?
Smaller more frequent gifts every time. I have some new work on obligatory vs. non-obligatory gifts. Basically, you can make someone very happy by giving a small gift on a random Tuesday compared to a much nicer gift on their Birthday. More random-tuesday gifts every time!
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Thank you! :) will the results of that be on ur channel?
Probably not. The channel isn't about my research, but rather about how to understand data more broadly. But the results will hopefully be published soon!
How extensive are the consumer psychology divisions in companies like apple?
Lots of variation. Places like apple, google, amazon will have a lot of depth in terms of psychologist and consumer behavior researchers. But those are the gold standard. Most will rely on consultants to help out
How does education on finance and economics affect consumer behavior? Does knowing the way our brains make consumer decisions or how businesses try to get you to buy change how you shop?
If you understand better how firms are trying to entice you to buy their products, you can absolutely counteract that better. For instance, $1.99 is really just $2...we all get that. But it turns out, having a 9-ending price really drives demand. That's nuts, but it does. IF you understand that, you stand a shot and not being duped by something so trivial. So educating yourself can be a big help. On finance and econ eduction, also really helpful, but in other ways. When you go to get a 30-year mortgage for your home, understanding how interest rates work, how inflation might affect home prices, how amortization tables work, etc... will help you make a much more informed decision about what is right for you.
hi! how do you predict consumer happiness/decision making etc during unprecedented times like this, when such a scenario may not have taken place before and you do not have much data to go on? also since the research you do and the data you collect are relevant to sales, do you see advertisements being affected by the pandemic in the long run from any changes in consumer mindset?
It's really hard to predict much of anything right now. There are some basic behaviors and experiences that we can expect during a pandemic (e.g. increased anxiety, defaulting to familiar experiences, increased online shopping), but the reality is you're right...we just don't know. There's virtually no data on pandemic psychology/behavior, and all the pop-science stuff you read is just guessing at what will happen.
As for advertising, I think that once the pandemic is over, life will be back to what it was beforehand in almost every respect. People are amazing to adapting to changing circumstances. We are all doing that now with the pandemic and will all do that again when it's over. I don't think that advertising will be any different. Give it a year after we're all vaccinated (or whatever winds up being the solution) and most people will largely forget that we even had a pandemic. Yes, some will have big changes like lost loved ones or lost jobs, but for most people, life will return to what it was before Covid hit.
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thank you for answering, that is very interesting! the data you collect seems to be applicable to so many different fields. i asked about advertising as a student interested in media, but i can see it being useful in various types of companies be it internet security, food, travel etc. your job sounds really cool and i will definitely check out your YouTube channel :)
Thanks!
Did you ever get to meet Herbert Simon? Wasn't he interested in similar things?
I wish! I've been at CMU for 11 years. Simon passed away in 2001, so I missed him by a few years.
And yes, Simon was one of the original researchers into what's known as Bounded Rationality, it's the idea that humans don't act like computers and process all information simultaneously, but rather use heuristics and shortcuts to accomplish most tasks.
How influential was the work of Daniel Kahnemann to your current teaching?
VERY! I don't know Danny personally, but my advisor got his PhD at Princeton when Danny was there, so lots of indirect influence that way. More generally, the field of decision making was build on his (and others) work, so hard not to be influenced.
Do you have any opinions on investors behavior during covid 19? More specifically how certain financial firms may have targeted people who have or would dabble in market that have recently lost work due to the pandemic?
Caveat: I am not a finance professor. That said, my read is that fear of missing out (FOMO) is driving a lot of unexpected behaviors. The market has rallied like crazy since the March low and everyone wants in on that. It's hard to sit by and watch others make a killing while you don't.
As for practices like getting people who don't typically to invest to do so, there's two sides to this. On the one hand, getting more people involved with investing is a great thing. It used to be only that the very wealthy could invest and reap the benefits of the market, but now with places like Robinhood and fee-free trading on Schwab and the like, everyone can participate. On the other hand, MANY people don't understand risk well at all. They just see the possible upside and ignore the possibility of losing a lot (see that guy that committed suicide b/c of a terrible options trade...that's horrible). So firms and gov't have a responsibility to both educate investors and provide safeguards against uninformed behaviors.
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Hello, I just want to specify something in your comment! The young college student who committed suicide did so because a misprogrammed number on the trading site, Robinhood. Of course at the time he did not know it, but the value loss that was near $800,000, was showing the loss of the entire option, not his equity in the option, which was -$1,000 - -$2,000 if I remember right. It was Robinhood's terrible interface, not his misunderstanding of risk, which is horrible. If you would like a misunderstanding of risk on trading platforms, look no further than wallstreetbets, of course as you said FOMO is a huge factor, or if you're interested, some trading platforms intentionally advertise to consumers without properly representing risk. Thank you very much for this AMA, it has been quite insightful!
Thanks so much for that clarification!
I have a question re: dating sites / apps. Is there a way to structure incentives so that the company is motivated to find good pairings between users? It feels like Tinder, Bumble, Hinge, etc. don't have such an incentive currently
I think they do have an incentive to make good pairings. Word of mouth is their strongest asset so having good matches is key. The challenge is that good matches are hard to come by and not everyone agrees on what good is. Is good marriage? Is it a fun night? Not clear.
Hello Professor and thank you for taking this time. As a professional that works in marketing and a person who suffers from mental illnesses, it is often disheartening for me to see so much valuable research and findings be easily made available for use by companies for marketing and consumer exploitation while it is so difficult for those who are struggling to find information that could be beneficial to living their lives more freely. What are your thoughts on this, and do you think there are ways we could change the system to better benefit individuals needs directly?
The connection between marketing academia, marketing industry, and consumers just sucks. No one outside of academia reads marketing academic journals. Few in academia care if their work has applications (even in an applied field like marketing). And consumers can't be bothered (rightfully) to read through academic work to learn.
Some solutions that I've seen that work: - Marketing Science Institute: this is an organization whose entire goal is link academia and practice. They have conferences where they invite folks from both sides to collaborate. More of this please! - Pop-science social science books like Freakonomics, Blink, Predictably Irrational, etc...: They all have plenty of shortcomings, but the authors all do an amazing job of conveying the ideas of academia to the public. I think that's fantastic. More of this too please! - Consulting for non-profits. I do this and many others do as well. We use our knowledge to help non-profits do their amazing work. This is a way to avoid that "exploitation" you mentioned and instead use what we know to help others. There's not much money in this kind of consulting, which is why few do it, but it's really important. Maybe some kind of granting agency could earmark money for non-profits to hire academic consultants to help them use what we know to help the world. That would be awesome
hey, I'm a recent advertisement graduate, it's good to see someone from such a familiar field here anyways, when I do groceries, I always follow the list to a T, and I take no time at all getting the items, basically, I go against every little trick supermarkets have to "seduce" the customer, so my question is: what makes someone a "good customer"? is it someone highly susceptible to the marketing tricks at the market or someone who spends both their money and time more efficiently?
Good can mean different things here. You sound like you're probably super loyal to products. That's pretty great for most companies. The fact that you don't succumb to unintended purchases definitely makes you less attractive in one capacity, but your predictability makes you very attractive in other ways. If I could run a company where every customer always bought the same thing every week, I would LOVE that. I would know how to schedule raw material purchases, delivery schedules, etc... I would have a steady and dependable income. If, however, I relied just on getting lucky and catching the eye of customers as they passed my products on store shelves, that would be a whole lot more difficult a business plan to execute.
Hi Jeff, I have always geared my life towards maxing out the benefits and deducting the losses for example leaving my family in order to search for better life oportunities, ditching jobs where I felt safe in favor of new and more promising ones. And by this logic I have reached quIte far in my life. But at the end achieving all this goals don't yields the expected satisfaction. However I'm pretty sure that don't doing this would be even worse. Why does it seems that no matter if the desitions taken are the best at my point of view it still seems like I need more than the goals I have achieved. Why is disatisfaction the expected result?
Wow, that's a lot to give up for goals! People are inherently likely to make what are known as upward comparisons. We don't look at the people who we have done better than, but instead focus on the few who done better than us. The classic example is Silver Olympic medalists. They should be elated, but instead they just covet the Gold medalist.
Beyond that, in your specific case, it's hard to say for sure, but we know that close relationships are the number one driver of life satisfaction. If you've given those all up in pursuit of some other goal, that might explain things a bit. Take that with a grain of salt as all I know about you is summed up in 100 words or so!
Hello Jeff, glad to see this AMA here! I'm a statistics student in Brazil (one of my professors got his doctorate degree at Carnegie Mellon University, in fact!). Much of what we learn nowadays is related to careers pertaining the finance fields. Other stuff includes academic research mixed with other fields. I see myself as a data analyst for a big bank someday, but I always think: is there any career for a data scientist thats underrated by modern standards but still awesome and rewarding, in your opinion?
Go work for a non-profit! It's now where the money is, but many need help from data scientists. You can actually change the world that way!
Which US dollar bill is your favorite?
Cash? You still use cash?
the below is a reply to the above
For coke yeah
Oh, in that case.... Nope, not replying and losing my tenure :)
15 Most Famous Slot Machines and Most Popular Slot Games
1. Liberty Bell
Invented and designed by a San Francisco mechanic named Charles Fey in 1895, the Liberty Bell is the first slot machine. The main symbols here include horseshoes, stars, spades, diamonds, hearts, and Liberty Bells. Once three bells are aligned, the machine pays 50 cents. Having a coin slot at the top, it features small reels in the middle and a paytable at the bottom. It works like this - players insert a Nickel and pull a lever on the right-hand side to spin the reels. Although the Operator Bell and Liberty Bell have been removed from casinos, the original Liberty Bell on display can be seen in the Liberty Belle saloon in Reno, Nevada.
2. Lion's Share
One of the most famous slot machines, Microgaming’s classic slot Lion's Share, gained a lot of success back in 2014, due to news channels that discussed the topic on how Lion's Share's progressive jackpot hasn’t been hit for two decades. Thousands of people have tried but no one was lucky enough to pull it off. Although the machine only featured 3 reels and only 1 payline, Lion’s Share has managed to become one of the most popular releases in Vegas, so popular that people waited in line just to put a coin into it and try spinning those reels. Eventually, a New Hampshire couple hit the $2.4 million progressive jackpot in MGM’s Grand’s Lion’s Share. Soon after, MGM Grand made a decision to retire the Lion's Share machine since it required a lot of maintenance. Still, the game became part of slot history with a jackpot that took 20 years to win.
3. Megabucks
Created by IGT, Megabucks has managed to become one of the world's best progressive slot machines. The game is also responsible for numerous big wins throughout the entire jackpots’ history. Also known as the biggest money jackpots of all time, Megabucks slot machines are described as simple games with a massive progressive jackpot. One of the biggest wins was when an anonymous engineer won a staggering $39.7 million at Las Vegas' Excalibur, back in 2003. As for the other big wins hit on this machine, there was a cocktail waitress Cynthia Jay Brennan who snagged an incredible $34.9 million at Vegas' Desert Inn, as well as a retired flight attendant hitting $27.5 million at Vegas' Palace Station. Johanna Huendl won $22.6 million whereas an Illinois businessman hit $21.3 million on the very first spin. However, after winning the prize, one of the winner's family members had a tragic accident, which (as some believe) only supported the theory of a Megabucks curse. Other unfortunate stories are just believed to be urban legends, including anecdotes about underage players, as well as casino employees, being big winners but not being able to claim their jackpots because of specific state laws and regulation.
4. Wheel of Fortune
IGT’s Wheel of Fortune has proven to be the second most famous slot machine of all time. Featuring a bonus feature just like the real show, the slot machine is usually played by many slot fans and can be found in numerous casinos all over the globe. Although the game comes in more variations, probably the most popular one is still its 3-reel version, with a colourful wheel at the top. The Wheel of Fortune multiplayer game features a bank of machines where every player gets their own screen. What makes the game even more exciting is the multiplayer edition where people can play the bonus round together, which really intensifies the game show aspect. In a 5-reel Wheel of Fortune slot, however, Wild symbols will help players land winning combos and, if you’re lucky enough, you may get a Super Wild that will boost your win up to 5x! Last but not least, the Triple Action Bonus is activated by getting at least 3 Triple Action Bonus symbols anywhere on the reels. But still, none of the newer Wheel of Fortune slots measure up to the original one because of the large progressive jackpot involved.
5. Mega Fortune
Featuring 5 reels and 25 paylines, NetEnt’s Mega Fortune slot became very popular among players as it usually grows into a multimillion-euro amount before being hit. The main symbols here include luxury cars, yachts, and expensive jewellery, Mega Fortune is an online slot machine game which justifies its theme that comes with the largest ever online slot jackpots. The game offers a few different features that make the entire gameplay more fascinating, however, by far the most interesting ones are the 3 different progressive jackpots: Mega Jackpot, Major Jackpot and Rapid Jackpot. There are counters for all 3 of these that are displayed above the reels. Champagne is the Scatter and if you land at least 3 of them simultaneously, you will trigger Free Spins bonus round. Likewise, Wheel of Luck is the Bonus symbol, and if you land 3 or more symbols in succession from left to right on an active payline, you will activate the Bonus game. What’s interesting about this slot is the fact that a Finnish man won a huge jackpot worth €17.8 million while spinning the reels of Mega Fortune. This record from 2013, has been passed by Mega Moolah, but the game is still proof how rich players can get after playing Mega Fortune.
6. Mega Moolah
Powered by Microgaming and being among most popular slot games, Mega Moolah is a 25-payline progressive slot which has served as a competitor to Mega Fortune's big jackpots. Followed by African safari music, the game features antelopes, elephants, giraffes, lions, monkeys and zebras as the main symbols. Landing at least 3 Scatters at the same time will trigger 15 Free Spins. What’s more, all wins hit during Free Spins are tripled, whereas Free Spins can also be retriggered. Players can win one of the 4 Progressive Jackpots within the randomly triggered Bonus round. The game paid some of the largest slot machine jackpots that have ever been triggered. In 2015,for example, Mega Moolah gained international recognition when a British soldier Jon Heywood won a massive €17,879,645.
7. Cleopatra
Inspired by the famous Egyptian theme and Developed by IGT, Cleopatra is a 20-payline classic game that managed to stand out above similar releases. Featuring ancient Egyptian music, the main symbols here include Cleopatra, the Eye of Horus, scarabs, and pyramids. Landing at least 3 Sphinx symbols will trigger the Cleopatra Bonus, which awards 15 Free Spins. All prizes, except for the 5 Cleopatra symbols, are tripled in the Free Spins round. The game has been so successful that it inspired its creators to make a sequel, Cleopatra II, with richer graphics and engaging sound effects. But even if you choose the original game, you'll be playing a classic that's still enjoyed by various players today. And, in case you land 5 Cleopatra symbols you’ll get a jackpot of 10,000 coins.
8. Book of Ra
Having a popular Ancient-Egypt theme, Book of Ra has always been one of the best choices to play in land based and online casinos. Powered by Novomatic, Book of Ra is a 9 payline video slot that offers plenty of bonus features and big payouts. With entertaining narrative and energising gameplay, there are numerous ways to win here. In case you land 5 archaeologists simultaneously, you’ll get an impressive 5,000x your line bet. Earning big bucks, however, comes from the Free Spins feature. What players need to do is land at least 3 Scatter books to trigger the Free Spins feature. Pages of the book will flip and randomly determine which symbol will expand during the 10 Free Spins. Although hitting the jackpot may not be easy, with only a few one in between, when big wins come, they can be big.
9. Starburst
There’s no denying NetEnt’s Starburst slot became kinda legendary in the iGaming universe. With its dark background and shiny space looking gemstones, Starburst slot features 5 reels and 10 paylines. The well-known futuristic music in this release is also easily noticeable, as is the game’s expanding Wild. More precisely, the Wilds may only occur on the reels 2, 3 and 4, and, once 1 or more wilds appear on those reels, the Starburst Wild feature will be activated. During this feature, Starburst wilds expand to cover the entire reel and remain while the other reels re-spin. Should a new wild land during a re-spin, it expands and stays along with any previously expanded Starbursts for another re-spin. Another cool feature is that Starburst pays both ways, instead of only paying you for landing at least 3 identical symbols on adjacent reels starting with the reel furthest to the left. The maximum single spin payout for a person (betting the $200 maximum) is $100,000. But, in order for that to happen, you must land five bars on consecutive reels on an active payline. Players love this slot, probably because it’s suitable for both newbies and experienced players.
10. Immortal Romance
Powered by Microgaming, Immortal Romance is based on sci-fi and the cult of Vampires which has become one of the popular casino slot machines in the last couple of years. Apart from superb graphics and great audio and visual effects, the slot features 5 reels and 243 paylines, and the theoretical RTP rate of 96.86%. The four main characters are Amber, Troy, Michael and Sarah. When it comes to features and bonus games, Immortal Romance offers different variants. Wild Desire feature can occur randomly, and as soon as it does, it can turn 1 to 5 reels completely Wild. Likewise, landing 3 or more Scatters anywhere on the reels in this game, activates the Chamber of Spins feature which cannot be triggered during Wild Desire. The game is still among the most popular slots, as many players still try their luck in this slot in the hope to get the highest multiplier possible.
11. Gonzo’s Quest
Beautifully designed video slot powered by NetEnt, Gonzo Quest features 5 reels and 20 paylines. The story is based on the famous conquistador Gonzalo Pizzaro who is on his way to the Peruvian ruins and just about to experience the unique quest. Now, Gonzo’s Quest has become one of the most popular slot games of all time, probably because it comes with a few interesting features, Avalanche Multipliers feature being the most interesting one of all. In Essence, the reels in the slot move in a cascading manner which resemble an Avalanche. As you activate each new Avalanche, you will win a multiplier. Multipliers are displayed above the reels, and go up to 5x, that is if you land 4 or more avalanches simultaneously.
12. Age of the Gods
Being among famous slot machines and inspired by Ancient Greek mythology, Age of the Gods is a 5-reel, 20-payline progressive slot powered by Playtech. The main characters are Athena, Zeus, Hercules, and Poseidon power up 4 free game modes that offer extra wilds and win multipliers! Once you start spinning, you’ll come across a series of bonus features, such as Athena Free Games, Zeus Free Games, Poseidon Free Games and Hercules Free Games. Wild logo is the game’s wild card and it substitutes for all symbols, with the exception of the Scatter. Landing at least 3 Scatters anywhere on the reels simultaneously triggers the Bonus game. Moreover, landing 5 God symbols in any order on an active payline will get you 200x your line bet! During the main game, any spin can activate the Age of the Gods Mystery Jackpot. This mini game guarantees a win of up to 4 progressive jackpots. All you gotta do is click on the coins to reveal jackpot symbols, and if you match 3 identical ones, you will win that jackpot.
13. Money Honey
Having a cute theme, Money Honey is a 5-reel and a 243 payline slot themed around honey. With Wilds, Free Spins, Scatters and multipliers, it is a fast-paced exciting creation featuring vibrant colours. Likewise, it is a mobile-optimized slot which may be an excellent choice if you’re new to online gambling or if you’ve been playing for years. Just like in other games, Wilds will help you win payouts as they are able to replicate most other symbols on the reels once a winning combination has been made. Another symbol you may want to keep your eyes on is a Money Wheel card. Once you manage to land at least 3 of them on your reels after a spin, the bonus game begins, and you spin a big wheel to choose a prize.
14. Quick Hit
And our selection wouldn’t be complete without Bally's Quick Hit slot. Featuring traditional Las Vegas symbols with sharp graphics and relaxed music, the video slot has 5 reels, 3 rows, and 30 paylines. Once you decide how many paylines you want to bet on, your gaming adventure can begin. There are Scatters symbols and three bonus games to benefit from. The biggest payout here comes from landing the triple seven symbol. Should you land 5 of these lucky numbers on the reels at the same time, you will win 5,000 coins, whereas if you land five wild symbols, you’ll get 12,500 coins. Those looking for hitting a jackpot should pay attention to Quick Hit Platinum symbols as 5 of these contribute to 5,000x players’ original bet amount – and even more, with the max bet activated. The second-highest jackpot can be hit by landing 9 Quick Hit Slot symbols. Both the Quick Hit Platinum and regular Quick Hit symbols must occur on or within one position of the first payline to be eligible for a jackpot win.
15. SlotZilla Zip Line
And now something completely different. We’re finishing our selection of famous slots in style, with the world’s largest slot machine - StotZilla Zip Line - 128 feet tall which has two take-off levels. This $12 million SlotZilla zip line took more than a year to build and opened its doors in 2014 and has already had more than 2 million riders so far. The 11-story slot machine is decorated with over-sized dice, a glass of martini, a pink flamingo, video reels, coins, and two showgirls - Jennifer and Porsha. SlotZilla offers two different rider experiences - the upper Zoomline and a lower Zipline. This unique machine has a huge video screen with reels and a gigantic arm, replicating a true slot machine experience.
Final Report to Mr. Eggs, Thursday, March 26th, 2020. Better read it all. It's the last report I'll have a chance to make. The job ended early, and badly. But when I'm hired, I see the job through. I can't get all the salmon, but I'll by God write a report saying why. Here's your damn code phrase: Early Bird Prosthetic Femur Salesman. Google yourself silly. There's still salmon on the way to your cutout, Molly and Dale's last shipments. We got a lot, a load of bones, maybe 800-900 steaks, but it cost way too much. Like you told me, I'm posting anonymously to the internet, and inserting my first reports in this one. Good thing, since it looks like my first two reports got deleted; Google only shows the third. Since this is the last report, I'm not hiding names of the Hotel Non Dormiunt or the towns. It doesn't matter who sees these reports any more. First Report to Mr. Eggs, Friday, March 6, 2020. Wed, Mar 4, 2020. Driving through Mount Ida, Arkansas, I found a rock shop selling big chunks of raw glass. I loaded a forty-pound pink lump into my trunk. I also did a little scouting around Lake Ouachita, looking for quiet access points. At a hardware store in Hot Springs, I bought fifteen feet of 1/16" steel cable. Cash for everything, of course. Thu, Mar 5, 2020. In Hot Springs, I contacted the amateur historian you named. Frankly, at this point I believed you were getting scammed, this historian was running some weird con. Seriously, a hi-rise hotel that appears and disappears? Complete crock. The gangster part of it didn't bug me, from you or from him. I'd heard of Yankee gangsters like Capone and Dillinger vacationing in Arkansas. My own grandfather claimed to have seen John Dillinger on Bath House Row when he was a kid. Sounds crazy today, but in 1931 Bugsy Siegel's Las Vegas was still sixteen years away. Hot Springs was wide-open, gambling and drinking, classy natural-spring bath houses, whores high-toned enough for a Boston cathouse. I told the guy I'd buy him lunch, a place out near Lake Ouachita. I let him chatter as I drove, about Al Capone's favorite Suite 443 at the Arlington Hotel in Hot Springs. One time it was unavailable, so Capone stayed at another hotel, "newly built" (though nobody'd noticed construction) a block away. "Where the wax museum is now," he said. The guy tried to describe his research, rambling about how he'd traced the granddaughter of a Depression-era whore. "She remembered all her granny's stories about Capone." Did he bend your ear with all this crap? Capone had taken two suites and several regular rooms on the sixth floor, the same numbers you told me. After two weeks he went back north. "Last time Capone came to Hot Springs," the guy said. "A month later he was on trial for tax evasion." He shrugged. "Unlucky hotel to visit, at least for him." He thought I wanted every detail. "The Hotel was only here a few weeks. The granddaughter helped me track it down to San Antonio in 2014, two blocks from the Alamo." I half-listened as he bragged about bribing maids and wheedling the concierge. "I finally saw the registry from 1931. Capone was in Suite 638, registered as Al Gabriel. His brother Ralph had Suite 639 across the hall, and the 'Gabriel party' had 634 to 645." I didn't tell him you'd already told me the numbers. I also didn't mention the videos you made of the rooms in Seattle. By now we were through Mount Ida, on a back road. He asked where the cafe was, so I smacked the back of his head to shut him up. I drove to where I'd found a high bluff overlooking Lake Ouachita, tied the glass chunk to him with 1/16" cable, and dropped him into forty feet of water. Like you wanted, nobody else will hear his story. I hope to hell you know what you're doing. End First Report to Mr. Eggs, Friday, March 6, 2020. Signed and Submitted. Second Report to Mr. Eggs, Wednesday, March 18, 2020. Fri, Mar 13, 2020. On the principle that even if your elevator skips floors, you're paying me a metric assload of money, I drove to Eureka Springs to wait for the Hotel Non Dormiunt. You said it should appear between the 15th and the 25th, so I checked into the Basin Park, a hotel on such a steep hillside that all seven floors have ground-level exits. They say Al Capone's sister stayed here. I paid for a week. Rates not bad, hardly any guests, COVID-19 cutting into people's travel. For four days I walked downtown, looking for a hotel that appeared overnight. Sometimes I hired a mountain bike to hit the trails. Best paid vacation I've ever had, in spite of rain and now the restaurants shutting down. Thanks, Mr. Eggs. Wed, Mar 18, 2020. Turning off Main onto Spring Street for the hundredth time, I glanced ahead at my hotel. On the left just before it was Basin Spring Park, empty this chilly afternoon. Behind the park was a steep wooded hillside. Except today a huge shadow loomed behind the park. Set back from the street, a building way taller than the Basin Park Hotel. Brick and masonry, it rose above the trees. A narrow driveway had appeared beside the park. I'd been watching for it for days, but I still stopped dead and gaped. Low clouds hid the top, but it stood at least twelve stories, here where a seven-story building was a landmark. I'm a hard man, Mr. Eggs. But I've got to admit I was pretty damn shaken up. A rusty little sign by the driveway pointed to "The Hotel Non Dormiunt", just what you claimed. I walked right by. But my knees felt loose. So it's here. So I'm posting my second report. I wish you'd given me a damn email address. I hope you're searching for "Early Bird Prosthetic Femur Salesman" often enough to see this. I've told Molly and Dale to get ready. Time for you to make the room reservations. If you can't get the suites, we're dead in the water. End Second Report to Mr. Eggs, Wednesday, March 18, 2020. Signed and Submitted. Third Report to Mr. Eggs, Monday, March 23, 2020. Fri, Mar 20, 2020. The news said the governors of New York and Illinois have ordered all "non-essential" businesses in those states closed. California's already done it. If Governor Hutchinson issues an order for Arkansas, your party ends early. Sat, Mar 21, 2020. Molly called. We're both using burner phones. They'd checked into 639, the Ralph suite across from Capone's, as newlyweds named Rick and Nadine. So far so good—you actually found my report online, you actually made the reservations. They'd spend two days in the room, newlywed-style, then come out and start sightseeing. Molly gave me web addresses. They fed video to my phone and laptop from the spy cameras she'd stuck up at either end of the hall. Mon, Mar 23, 2020. I checked into 626, a double room, reserved in the name of Seward Blake. A sign at the front desk said the dining rooms and lounge were closed until further notice. The clerk assured me that room service would be quick and excellent. You warned there'd been a fire recently on the sixth floor, but I saw no trace of any repairs. The hall carpet was worn, the flocked wallpaper faded, the blue-painted doors scuffed. Old-fashioned transoms, all closed, topped the doors. The furnishings in 626 looked like the Hotel hadn't redecorated since Capone's last visit. Brass bedframes you could slide trunks under. Wall lamps converted from gaslight to electricity. Standing wardrobes instead of closets. Wingback armchairs by a heavy blond-oak table. The bathroom, at least, had a modern tub and shower. A large TV stood on a cheap bureau. But the porcelain sink still had separate hot and cold faucets. None of the doors had peepholes, so I checked the feeds from Molly's cameras. The hall was empty. No sense waiting: I pulled out the key you gave me and stepped into the hall. The rooms on this floor all had old-fashioned metal keys on tags instead of electronic locks. Most hotels this size have someone in maintenance or security who can change the locks if necessary. Question was, if a key went missing, did the Hotel rekey or take its chances? Would the key you stole in Seattle in 2011 still work? I strode briskly down to 638, slid the key in the lock. For a moment it hung, then turned with a clack. I was in. As you know, this suite, a parlor and two bedrooms, was even more antiquated than mine. The same converted gaslamps, the same ancient sink fittings, but also tongue-and-groove wainscoting, pressed-tin ceiling panels, cut-glass vases, and crocheted doilies and antimacassars. A sterling-silver ice bucket, several pressed-glass tumblers, and two cut-glass decanters (both empty, sadly) sat on a sideboard. All just like your videos. I ignored the furniture, except for the doilies and the bedcovers. If it wouldn't fit in a bag, I wasn't interested. I also ignored the digital clocks, the microwave, and the various TVs. You hired me because Al Capone slept in this suite, and Capone never saw a TV in his life. Molly called. We checked the cameras, then I opened the door and let her dart across from 639. "So what's the deal?" she asked. "Somebody bringing jewels, or a bag of money? Or is it straight kidnapping?" They'd worked with me six times before, but never in my peculiar specialty: antiques. "It's a nut job," I said. "Al Capone stayed here in 1931. Mr. Eggs"—I'd told them your alias—"is some kind of nostalgia nut, anything about Capone. He wants to recreate Al Capone's hotel room in his house." I waved at the parlor. "Everything here that might date back to 1931 is fair game. Anything you can carry. If we can, we're stripping this room till the walls bleed." Molly was startled. But she's like me, does what she's hired for. "I'll do the demo work," I said. "Strip the ceiling tins, pull the fixtures. You and Dale are transport. 'Rick and Nadine' got two days in bed; now you want to sightsee. You'll run in and out all day, and you'll carry a load from here every time." "That's why you wanted the big tote bags." "Yeah. Once a day or so you'll drive over to Springdale and ship boxes from the UPS store." I texted her the cutout address you gave me. "What if somebody rents this room?" "Mr. Eggs reserved this room until April. And the rooms to either side of it, so nobody hears me tear stuff out. And the maids have been ordered to leave all these rooms alone." I didn't admit to Molly that you never explained how you'd get three different reservations, all specially on the sixth floor, without the Hotel thinking they were connected. If Hotel security decided Molly and Dale and I were all related to the mystery guest reserving a block of rooms, this job would end soon. And badly. It looks like we're the only guests on six. For that matter, I haven't seen any other guests in the whole Hotel. Not many tourists, right now. I don't like feeling this conspicuous. End Third Report to Mr. Eggs, Monday, March 23, 2020. Signed and Submitted. Final Report to Mr. Eggs, Thursday, March 26, 2020. Continuing Mon, Mar 23, 2020. I started the demo work that evening. First I took the faucets and valves from the sink. I stole the faucet and feet from the ancient clawfoot tub, brass claws clenching real glass balls. Each bedroom had one real painting above the bed, not just a print. One was a lighthouse at sunset. The other showed three fat old sailing ships in a stormy sea. Neither painting was in your videos, but both looked old. I'd grab them if I had time, if they'd fit in Molly's big carryall. Floor and table lamps gave enough light that I started tearing out the wall lamps as well. These were definitely antique, converted from gaslight. Wiring snaked right through the gas pipes, gas burner replaced with an electric socket. The valves to control the gas flame were still in place, wide open to pass the wires. The shades looked original, milky-white molded glass. I puzzled over the tongue-and-groove wainscot. Even Molly's carryall wasn't big enough for four-foot boards, but I wanted to get some. I ignored the portable stuff, decanters and doilies and such. In ninety years, most of them had likely been replaced. I'd look them over after I took what was nailed down. Before bed I sent Molly a text that I had a load of "bones" ready. Even on prepaid phones, we used code, same as my reports. "Cannery" for the Hotel. "Salmon" for the merchandise in general. "Bones" for rigid fittings, "steaks" for ceiling tins, and so on. I told her to pick them up in the morning. Nothing would stay in their room more than a few minutes. My room down the hall would stay absolutely sterile, no salmon at all in it. Molly asked me to come to their room. They had an announcement, a confession, in fact: She was three months pregnant. I was annoyed as hell. "When you first called I didn't know," she said. "I didn't tell you after—I was scared you'd cancel the job." "I would have," I said. They were normally good for this sort of work, young, ordinary-looking, forgettable. Both a little pudgy, a little dim-looking. Good actors, steady and unexcitable. Trustworthy, usually, if they felt well paid. Ordinarily, I'd have staked my life on Molly keeping her head. In fact, I'd staked my liberty several times already, on her as receiver or distraction. Dale really was a little dim, but Molly thought on her feet, and the whole FBI couldn't rattle her. But pregnant? She was far from starting to show, only three months along, and round-bellied anyway. And really, is it that unusual for a new bride to be pregnant? But I wouldn't trust a pregnant Molly to keep her head on the job. For that matter, I wouldn't trust Dale, either. Parenthood screws up your priorities. And this was their first kid. Too late to replace them. I crossed my fingers and hoped things stayed quiet. Tue, Mar 24, 2020. I spent the day standing on furniture, gently prying loose the pressed-tin ceiling panels. The ones in the bathroom were corroded from decades of damp, but in the main rooms they were in excellent shape. I'd seen tins this good on eBay for fifty dollars and up. Between the parlor and bedrooms, there had to be around a thousand salvageable tins, all under a foot square. Molly and Dale ferried out the "bones", then several small loads of "steaks". In the afternoon, they drove to Springdale to box up our first shipment. Molly was cool as anything, carrying thousands of dollars of stolen tin in her big flowery canvas tote. Dale carried more in his day pack. They mixed up their trips, sometimes going together, sometimes not, so the clerks wouldn't expect a pattern. Each time they left I watched the camera feeds, in case something went wrong and I needed to bail out. Around four, Dale went out to get gas in their truck and stash another load. Molly collected another stack of tins from me and, after a glance at the feeds, headed for the elevators. Which chose that moment to open. Someone stepped out, an older woman in dark clothes. Molly should have walked right up, stepped on the elevator, and been gone. She'd done that once earlier, meeting one of the strange shaven-headed maids. But this time she hesitated, then suddenly charged past the older woman, right past the elevators. She walked to the hall's end, and disappeared into a side corridor. What the hell? The woman stared after her, then walked down the hall and knocked on a door. I thought she was knocking on 626, my room. Standing on a bed in Capone's suite, I couldn't answer. She knocked again, waited a while, then returned to the elevator. My phone beeped: Molly. She spoke softly when I answered. "Gonna need some help, here," she said. "I'm kinda stuck." "How so?" "I tried to hide in a linen closet. I was pushing back into a corner behind a maid cart, and a shitload of towels and sheets fell on me. Now I'm kinda wedged in this corner; you gotta come dig me out." "Why the hell did you hide?" "I panicked. That woman on the elevator, she scared the shit out of me. I don't know why." "Is anyone there?" "I don't think so." "You still got a bag full of steaks?" "Yeah." Crap. If she was clean, she could have called the desk to ask for a maid. They had a plan for turning up in odd places: We were playing hide-and-seek, and got carried away. But that wouldn't work if she had a tote full of tin. "Okay, Rick's out somewhere, so I'll come get you." But I couldn't find her. "Come on," Molly said. "These towels are getting heavy." I'd seen on camera where she went. Down that side hall there was one linen closet, and she wasn't in it. Maybe I'd mixed up the camera views. I took every side hall on the sixth floor. There were more than I expected. I opened three linen closets and a maintenance cupboard full of breakers and valves, but I didn't find Molly. All I found was a big black cat, that disappeared into a wall crevice. "Shit!" Molly exclaimed. "There's a rat or something in here! I can feel it moving!" One eye on my phone, I went back to 638 and started over. "The towels're settling, or something," she said. "I can't move my arms. They're pinned." Sweating, I surveyed the entire floor, counting off every door I passed. Guest rooms; linen closets with nothing but crates of cleaning supplies on the floor, towels and sheets all neatly on shelves; two staircases; the service elevator; the maintenance cupboard; the main elevators. I was back at 638. "Oh, God," Molly moaned. "The sheets are moving. They're wrapping me up." "Don't panic," I said. "You're just scared." So was I. "I see them!" she cried. "They're winding round and round me! Getting tighter!" Where the hell was Molly? "Are you sure you're on the sixth floor?" On the phone, she was starting to pant. "Please," she wheezed. "I can't breathe." Breathing hard myself, I pulled up the camera history. Again, I watched her leave 639, walk past the stranger at the elevators, then turn into a side corridor. I ran to the side hall. It ran straight for only a short distance. Twelve rooms, a stairway, and a linen closet opened off it—nothing else. I opened the closet a third time. Molly's voice was growing faint. "He'p," she breathed. "Dale…he'p…me…" I shoved the two maid's carts into the hall, but there was nobody behind them, just crates of bathroom cleaner and little soaps and toilet tissue. Molly's voice stopped. The call stayed open, but I didn't hear her. I shoved the carts back in and shut the closet. Returning to the central hall, I nearly ran into someone at the corner. A gray-haired woman, nearly as tall as me, in dark clothes. Her eyes were dark and uncomfortably sharp. Heart pounding, I struggled for something to say. She glanced toward my door beyond the elevators. She knew which room I was in. "D'ja get lost?" she asked dryly. "Not lost, just confused," I said frankly. "This floor layout doesn't make sense. It seems like there ought to be at least one more hall back here somewhere." She nodded. "I getcha. All the years I work here, I never have figgered out where all the halls go. S'like they pick up and move sometimes." She walked past me toward the stairs. "If ya figger it out, lemme know." After she was gone, I stood shaking for a minute or two. Whoever she was, she made me feel guilty. I could almost understand Molly's panic. Almost. I called to Molly over and over, but only silence answered. I retraced my steps again, starting from 639. Down the hall, past the elevators, around the corner. To the end of the side hall. Where a large unlabeled door opened into a hall I hadn't seen before. A hall that wasn't there before. Down that hall, room numbers now past 660, to a fourth linen closet beside a third stair door. I found a pile of towels and sheets, just as Molly'd said. I pulled out the maid's cart and started shifting towels. Molly's face was blue, her eyes half-closed, dry and staring. She had no pulse. Even if I'd known CPR, it wasn't possible in her position. She'd crouched behind the cart, and the weight of fallen linens had pushed her into a twisted fetal position. I started pulling her out, glancing now and again at the camera feeds. Then I saw. Her legs were buried loosely, but her upper body was wrapped. Two or three sheets wound around her chest and belly like a shroud. Her right arm was pinned at her hip. Her left was crushed into her ribs, her phone still at her ear. I tugged at the sheets. They were as taut as guitar strings. They'd wrapped her like the coils of a snake, squeezing until she couldn't draw breath. The sheets had killed her. And the Hotel had hidden this closet, this whole corridor, until it was too late for me to help. What the hell kind of place did you hire me to rob? Three months pregnant. I hadn't cried since my mother's funeral in 1992, but I was damn close right then. My phone showed a maid getting off the service elevator. Hastily, I tugged Molly's carryall loose from the heap of towels. I covered her body and shoved the cart to hide it. Closing the closet, I slipped onto the stairs. I couldn't be seen carrying Molly's bag out of the Hotel, flowery and bright, not the sort a single man my age would have. I waited on the stairs until the hall was clear, then returned the carryall to 638. Dale didn't come back to 639 for half an hour. I crossed the hall to tell him. Besides being as pleasant as that much time spent being punched in the gut, telling him was a tactical mistake. I wanted him to play dumb and report her missing. But he fell completely apart on me. "We have to go get her," he kept saying. "She wouldn't want me to leave her there." "Would she want you to go to prison?" I grabbed his shoulder and dug in my fingers. "Your truck's full of stolen stuff. She's dead. It was worth the risk when I thought I could maybe save her. But I'm not going to prison for a corpse." He tried to punch me, so I pinched a nerve in his shoulder. I was getting frustrated, but he and Molly didn't become thieves because they were geniuses. They were greedy, selfish, lazy dropouts. They'd only made two really good choices in life: stay off drugs, and hook up with someone smarter and more experienced. Now that choice was biting them in the ass. I felt guilty, but sticking with me was still Dale's best option. I bullied him until he came around. "Besides that," I said, pointing at Molly's bag, "we've still got a pile of steak to move." "And all the fillets," he said, meaning soft goods. "And I don't have a big tote bag to carry around, just my suitcases. So getting the fish out is still all on you, except for the very last trip." I handed him her carryall. "Take another load out. Stop at the desk and ask if anybody's seen Nadine." Normally I wouldn't have reminded him of his wife's alias, but normally he wasn't in shock and normally she wasn't dead. Back in 638, I made a swift survey. Now that Molly's corpse was about to turn up, we were out of time. All of the wall lights were gone, and nearly all of the pressed tin. The plumbing fittings had already shipped. The wainscot and dado rails were a lost cause. So were the paintings. Like I said, I'd ignored the portable items as unlikely to be authentic. The table and floor lamps, though Victorian in style, looked fairly new. The bed covers couldn't possibly be ninety years old. The glasses and decanters were probably replacements, even reproductions. I checked one of the glasses. High-quality pressed glass—Heisey, in fact. Maybe Capone never actually touched them, but they weren't from Walmart, either. I figured we'd take them, as well as the doilies and antimacassars, which looked hand-crocheted. Back in 626, I ordered a roast-beef sandwich and coffee from room service. Fifteen minutes later, when someone knocked, I answered the door without checking the cameras. The gray-haired lady stood there. I recoiled before I could stop myself. I'd completely forgotten she'd come here earlier. "Can I come in?" she asked, mildly enough, amused at my reaction. I waved her into the room and closed the door. Once again I had trouble with words. She unnerved me. "You said you're with the Hotel, right?" I finally said. "Kinda. I'm Stern. Chief a' security." She wore a dark gray polo over black slacks. She looked lean, even athletic. Despite her iron-gray hair, I couldn't judge her age. If I had to, could I beat her in a fight? I wasn't sure. She gestured up the hall toward 639. She was left-handed, I noticed. "Ya know the young couple?" "I've seen them. They go in and out a lot." "Didn't the first coupla days. Newlyweds. Ya seen the girl today?" I paused as if to think. "I might have seen her this morning." Someone else knocked. Stern answered before I could move. A waitress stood there with my sandwich and coffee. Stern took the tray and passed it to me one-handed. I saw an engagement ring on her finger, silver with a red stone. "She's missin'," Stern went on. "Husband hadn't seen her f'r hours. If ya see her, give the desk a call, wouldja?" Her cold eyes said something much scarier. "You 'kinda' work here?" She smiled tightly. "Semi-retired. I fix things now and then, that's all. Like a hobby." Her eyes weren't smiling. "Keeps me chipper." Chipper. "Well," Stern said, "she'll turn up, I figger. Lots of newlyweds get cold feet. Suddenly you're stuck wit' one guy, forever." She glanced at her ring. "Some gals can't han'le it." After she left, I sat on the bed and shuddered. Her eyes, her age, her "hobby"—what sort of man was her fiancé? The sandwich tasted like mud. The coffee was too hot; I gulped it down anyway. I was too scared go back to 638 that night, picturing Stern roaming with a passkey. Hell, I was scared of my own room, after how Molly died. I brought my report up to date and went to bed early. I slept badly, fully dressed, on top of the covers because I couldn't bear a sheet. Molly's last breathless words haunted me. Wed, Mar 25, 2020. In the morning, though, I got up early and ordered breakfast. Fueled by strong coffee, I was soon back at it. I made Dale carry out several loads, pretending to look for his wife around town. He told the Hotel staff he and Nadine had argued, and he was too embarrassed to involve the police. I told him how to act, how often to pester the staff for news, and so on. He could play a role well, but lacked imagination; he needed good directions. Molly's body hadn't been found—or it had, and Stern wasn't talking. But with only two occupied rooms on the sixth floor, the maid had no reason to enter that distant linen closet. I kept my hopes up. Before lunch, I sent Dale to make another shipment. The bedroom ceilings were stripped, the tins wired in bundles to keep them from rattling. I had two rows of tins left in the parlor when Dale came back around two. "We're leaving tonight," I told him, standing on the table. "Whatever we can't carry out stays behind." "Including Molly," he said bitterly. "If you know how to carry a body out of a twenty-story hotel, you've got my blessing." I shrugged. "In the meantime, gather up the doilies and antimacassars to wrap up all that glassware." I had to tell him what an antimacassar was. I'm too damn old. He got a canvas bag from his room. He wrapped the drinking glasses first, packed them into the silver bucket, and slid it into the bag. Then he reached for one of the big decanters. "Ahh!" he hissed. He was holding his hand up, staring at the palm. "Cut myself," he said. The edges on cut glass are crisp, but not usually sharp enough to cut. "Probably chipped somewhere," I said. "Don't slide your hand on it." He picked up an oversized doily and reached for the decanter's neck. I snapped, "Don't get that crochet work bloody!" You can believe what happened next or not, but I'm telling what I saw. He wrapped the doily around the neck, and picked up the decanter. He started to flip the doily around the decanter's base. Suddenly the decanter was rolling up his forearms. "Ahh!" He wore short sleeves. Everywhere the glass touched bare skin it left cuts. The decanter passed his elbows and started up toward his neck. He jerked his arms apart, and it thudded to the heavy carpet. Blood cascaded from his arms. He stood gaping stupidly at the dozens of gashes. Then he began to moan, rising in pitch; the glass must have cut him too fast for real pain to register. He turned toward me, his arms still spread wide. Behind him, the decanter rocked on the carpet, then rolled toward him. It struck his left shoe and climbed the heel, shredding cloth, then skin. Then the decanter cut his Achilles tendon, and his leg folded. He collapsed hard into the sideboard, tumbling the other decanter. It rolled, falling onto his upturned face. He screamed in pain and terror. Both decanters attacked—there's no other word. They sliced his clothes and shredded his flesh. When one finally struck his throat, blood only pulsed weakly. He already bled too many other places. I stood on the table, paralyzed, wondering if anyone could hear his screams. For a mercy, they ended soon. He was an unrecognizable pile of chopped meat by then. The decanters rolled off and lay still. Gore covered them. Then they moved again. One, then the other, rolled toward the table I stood on. They bumped against one wooden leg. I saw splinters fly off. On one level I was disbelieving, but I wasn't going to stand here until they chewed a leg off the table. At first I reached for my pry bar. But what if I smashed a decanter, and all the pieces kept moving? Better to keep the enemy numbers small. My coil of wire lay nearby. I snipped off a length, bent it into a loop. Lying on my belly, reaching down, I slipped the loop around a decanter's neck and yanked it tight like a garrote. The decanter stopped moving. I wrapped the wire twice more, picked it up. The other decanter continued to chip at the table leg, with little crunching sounds. I hung my captive from the handle of a wardrobe. The stopper had come out of the other decanter. After several tries and one sliced knuckle, I slid a long screwdriver into the decanter's neck. I picked it up; it spun briefly one way, then the other, then stopped. I stood it upright on the table. It stayed still. Taking no chances, I clipped more wire and hung it by the other one. Then I stepped down off the table to look at Dale. I saw a flash of light, and my shoe fell on something small and round. My foot went out from under me. I'd forgotten about the loose stopper. It rolled toward me, and I kicked it across the room. Bits of rubber scattered from my shoe. Bouncing off an armchair, the stopper raced back. It was faster, more maneuverable than the decanters. I kicked it again, and grabbed the silver ice tongs. It skinned my ankle before I scrambled back onto the table. Reaching down, I grabbed it with the tongs. Hand shaking, I dropped it into the decanter. Then I ran to the bathroom and threw up, my vomit acid and tasting of coffee. My shoes and socks were covered with blood, but the rest of me was still fairly clean. I pulled off shoes and socks and rinsed them in the toilet bowl, then blotted them over and over on fresh towels. Then I threw up again. I bandaged my knuckle and my ankle—my tool kit includes bandages. I sat on the tub to pull my socks and shoes back on. With its feet gone, the tub teetered and grated on the tiles. When I stood my foot slipped where I'd dripped water. I fell hard to one knee, then fell backward. I came to on the tile, aching behind my right ear, my brain sort of fuzzy. I limped out, my knee stiff. Avoiding the blood drying in the carpet, I left the suite. I staggered down to 626, where I collapsed on the bed. I'm sure I had a concussion, but I was too fuddled to worry. I don't know what time I woke. But my head was clearer, and it said I should beat it out of the Hotel Non Dormiunt now, before it killed me. Even if it didn't, with two dead bodies, things would get ugly fast. I started packing. I'd swing by 638 for the bag with the ice bucket and Heisey glasses. The last ceiling tins were a loss, and I wasn't touching those decanters for a truckload of surgical masks. The spy cameras, purchased anonymously, had always been expendable. Nothing on this floor could identify me. Hand sanitizer, among its other virtues, is great for blurring fingerprints. A knock at my door. My phone showed a tall, gray-haired woman. I swore. If I hadn't hit my head, I'd have been gone by now. No choice but to open up. Stern, face bland, glanced inside and saw my bags piled on the bed. "Now, Mr. Blake," she said, "ya wouldn't be after stealin' our toilet paper, would'ja?" Her tone was carefully friendly. Too friendly. This time I was braced for her. "No, but I boosted a case of bleach from your laundry." I turned back to my packing. "What can I do for you?" Her random-sounding reply confused me. "Right at the turn of the century, they had a bad fire, here on six. Really bad. Gutted a whole wing, ever'thing from 660 to 695. Killed one poor lady, 'bout crippled her husband. Woulda shut down a lotta houses." Then she reached her terrifying point. "But a coupla weeks later, s'like it never happent. The sixth floor just sorta fixes itself. So when you mugs moved in to clean out the Capone suite, I figgered the Hotel c'd watch out f'r itself." I couldn't make a sound. "I figgered no harm done, rooms'll fix 'emselves back up. They tried redecoratin' in the fifties, ya know, again in the seventies, but the suite still looks pretty much like I saw it when Capone was here." I missed a bit, trying to make sense of that. "—get whatever ya c'n hump out. Then a pregnant lady gets herself killed." "Pregnant!" I gasped, too stunned to pretend. "Who told you? The cops?" Good Lord, they'd found Molly! How long ago? "Cops stay outta my Hotel. I did an autopsy, that's all." She pulled a clasp knife from her back pocket, flicked it open and closed, and put it away. "Not t'first." She had to be screwing with me. "You can't do things like that." "Can't I just?" Her dark eyes lit with a black fire. "I don't like innocent kids gettin' killed in my Hotel." For a moment fury overcame fear. "It was your Hotel that killed her! I could've saved her!" "Yeah," she said. "The Hotel and I don't always see things t'same." She raised her hand, the engagement ring glinting on her finger. "But you brought her. You got her in trouble. You're gonna tell me all about it." She snapped her finger. Pain exploded in the knot behind my ear, and I dropped to my knees. I don't remember a single question. But she burned through my memories. Her eyes, her glare were physical agony, drilling into my skull. It lasted forever. Telling her how you hired me, how you made the reservations, how I killed the historian, how I found Molly too late. I relived Dale's gruesome death, my terror when the decanters came for me. I told her your search phrase. I gave her the cutout address where we'd shipped all the salmon. I said I hadn't known Molly was pregnant. I said the Hotel was evil and murderous, and if she was so damn righteous she should kill it. She replied, "One'a these days I might figger out just how." Of course I couldn't tell her who you are. That didn't bug her. When she finally let me go, I lay on the blood-soaked carpet of Suite 638, sobbing like a little boy scared of the circus clowns. I don't remember how I got there. Shreds of Dale's clothes and flesh stuck to me. I'd pissed my pants. "I'm sorry," I said over and over. I was apologizing that everything I'd stolen was already gone. For not being able to tell Stern who you were. For Molly, and Dale, and Molly's little one. For being a wicked man. She just said, "C'mon." She led me into the hall, in urine-soaked pants and bloody shirt, snotty nose and flesh-befouled hair. Humiliated at the thought of meeting anyone, but too terrified to disobey. She led me to the elevator, up to the twentieth floor. We had the ride to ourselves. For all I know, I was the only guest in the Hotel. She unlocked Room 2031 with a key card and led me inside. It was more modern than anything on the sixth floor. A sliding-glass door led onto a balcony. We stood out in the chill evening breeze, facing a glorious sunset over the hill behind the Hotel. Red light turned her gray hair to smoky flame. Her ruby ring flared like a fiery eye. "Look down," she said. I looked. There was a tiny patio behind the Hotel, dark in the hill's shadow. "Climb up," she said. I put one foot on the rail, started to cry again. "G'awn up," she said. Her voice was cool, unforgiving. Standing on the rail, I clung desperately to a protruding bit of trim. I was going to jump, and die. I couldn't see the patio for my tears. "Look at me." I looked. Her dark eyes, black flames, charred my soul. "You're mine, now," she said. "You unnerstand?" I couldn't answer. She tilted her head a millimeter. I felt my feet slipping. "Un-der-stand?" I nodded frantically. "Yeah!" I cried. "Yeah, I understand!" So now I work for Stern. At least, I will once I finish this report, the last thing you paid me for. Stern wants me to send it, wants you to read it. She let me clean up and change clothes, then set me to writing. She was amused that you'd told me when the Hotel would appear. "I try to keep track when people follah the Hotel," she said. "They're always on the make." She didn't explain how she'd find you, any more than you explained how you predicted the Hotel's arrival. But I believe her. Early Bird Prosthetic Femur Salesman—she likes that code phrase. She says she'll find anyone who reads it. Too bad for you I started with it. She's already "figgered out" quite a bit. The historian's mention of a prostitute's granddaughter who could track the Hotel? Stern thinks there's something in that, thinks you might be the granddaughter. "Bess was a nice gal, f'r a whore," she said. "But her kids were just pure-D mean. Hate to think what her grandkids're like." Molly was greedy and lazy and selfish. Dale was all of that, and a bit dense besides. I'm garbage with a knack for planning, an eye for antiques, and a ruthless streak. But Molly's baby was just in the wrong place. I'm going to pay for that. Stern will make sure. But Mister Eggs, you're going to pay first. End Final Report to Mr. Eggs Thursday, March 26, 2020. Signed and submitted. Floor Directory DTS
Everyone had wondered why John and Amanda Baker had moved into the Goddamned Christy house. Sure, it was pretty. And it was even modern. But it was deadly. No one wanted to say anything when the couple bought it on a steal from Kevin Riley, Stanwyck, Georgia's resident real-estate guru. After all, the Bakers and their two cute little children Amy and Michael were outsiders in the Stanwyck community. They were from Atlanta for Christ's sake. And well Atlanta may as well have been a foreign country to these yokels. After the family moved in, no one really interacted with the Bakers much, and no one really wanted to. It was almost like the townspeople didn't expect this family to last very long. Whether in the house or above ground. After all, surely this family knew of the Christy home's dark history. Wouldn't Kevin or all the internet rumors have alerted them of the house's evil? John and Amanda both did online work at home, they had to have stumbled upon information regarding their supposed "dream home" at some point. An anonymous forum, an amateur ghost hunter site, anything. Everybody in town thought for sure this would be the case. But apparently, it wasn't. And the Bakers remained completely unaware. They had no idea what awaited them inside. It was three months after the Bakers moved in (the community consensus oveunder was around four) when the 911 call arrived a little after 11:14 P.M. On the phone, a hysterical Amanda Baker was heard begging and pleading for help. Her sobs were uncontrollable, almost painful to listen to. The operator was a newb and absolutely helpless. Amidst Amanda's agonizing rambles of "John's gone crazy," "there's blood everywhere," "hurry before it's too late," only one sentence was completely clear: "he took the children." * One month after that frantic phone call, a curious new group arrived at the Christy home. The afternoon sun was blistering and smoldering. But amidst the sweltering summer landscape, the Christy house retained an All-American eloquence. One that wouldn't be out-of-place in your average 1950s sitcom. The home itself was just two stories of pristine brick. That's it. Even the homes all around it practically looked the same. The big yards, the garden sheds/storage rooms, the brick design. Unlike its neighbors though, the Christy house also bore something else: actual residents. See, the housing market collapse of 08 really wore down this upper-middle-class neighborhood. Enough so that every other house seemed to wave a buyer beware sticker in the form of a For Sale sign. These weren't selling anytime soon. Not at that price, and not in a non-metropolis city like Stanwyck. After all, this wasn't Atlanta. But none of that ever stopped the unflappable Kevin Riley. He was Stanwyck's number one realtor. Not to mention Stanwyck's number one asshole or bullshitter depending on who you asked. With this neighborhood though, he certainly had his hands full this time. A challenge none of the city's other agents ever had any luck in: selling the Christy home and its three acres of archaic loveliness. Kevin was always a bit of a gambler. Whether it was purchasing the foreclosures or stacking off the local politicians in Stanwyck's secret poker games, Kevin liked to gamble. He liked taking chances. The Christy home was as exciting to him as an over-bet bluff on the river. This would be one way to show the locals who's boss. A challenge that could be his crowning achievement as the big fish in this small pond. Certainly, Kevin's awful yet brilliantly cheesy For Sale signs hinted at a charismatic personality. Big smile, wide eyes, handsome face. The good-looking jock by way of a cartoony car salesman. Such a manic image adorned the front yard of almost every house in this upscale neighborhood. Like the rest of the Stanwyck community though, Kevin was well aware of the Christy house's morbid history. The murders, the tragedies. But that wasn't stopping him. He was gonna sell this Goddamn house at all cost. Behind the house's wrought-iron fence, Kevin's potential customers were already arriving. Their fancy SUV pulled into the long driveway, parking right behind a nice truck. Emerging from the house's front door, Kevin immediately went up to greet this unique crew: Linda Kane's team. His eyes lighting up once he saw their expensive SUV. Linda, equal-parts adventurous and level-headed, had heard all the stories about the Christy house. Both the facts and the legends brought her here. Nearing her sixties, Linda still retained a youthful beauty, something not going unnoticed by Kevin's wandering eyes. The rest of the crew was made up of Linda's typical accomplices. The bruise and the wits: Tony Winston, Linda's bodyguard of choice, his big muscles overcompensating for his natural chickenshit instincts, and Bridget Buechler. Tony had tried to be a football player. Then he tried to be a rapper. He failed at both which led to his natural progression of mall security guard, bouncer, then bodyguard. Somehow he ended up with Linda. It paid better than high school coach, the only other life option for a hulking black man in America apparently. On the other hand, Bridget was unlike anyone Linda had ever seen because she was unlike anything anyone had ever seen. Bridget the afterlife savant as Linda once referred to her. For Bridget had the innate ability to sense spirits and paranormal presences. She could even see or hear them. Even though she had possessed these abilities since childhood, Bridget had never exploited such a talent. She wasn't one for mugging on Oprah or on those late-night-ads she always saw sandwiched in between the other nocturnal commercials about addiction networks or the latest patented infomercial disaster. Instead, Bridget wanted to stay grounded unlike her ghostly subjects. Her talents were just like any other specialty, she felt. Albeit, within a talent field dominated by sheysters and shitheads forever seeking their fifteen seconds of fame. Yeah, Bridget knew the stigma associated with her talents, and she didn't like that shit either. Her days as the lone black woman in every paranormal group had taught her to stick to her visions no matter what. Stick to your gut, baby girl, as her grandmama had often told her. "Well, hello, there," Kevin greeted them, armed with a smile and an outstretched hand. Linda obliged with the completed handshake, a little distrust in her face. "It's lovely to meet you in person, Ms. Kane," Kevin stated. "Yes," Linda replied. "It was a very long trip." During the casual meet-and-greet, Bridget's eyes strayed all around the Baker property. It was even bigger once you got past the nearly-abandoned Pleasantville neighborhood. And past that tall and imposing gate. The yard was undeniably pretty. Full of tall pines and trimmed hedges. An idealic idyll. A sight for sore eyes considering how far Linda and the crew had traveled to get here. All the way from Chicago, Illinois and the many plane rides and rental cars that trip encompassed. Tony shook Kevin's hand. "Nice to meet you," Tony muttered without meaning it. "Say, you got a strong grip there," Kevin bullshitted back. "I work out when I can." Linda patted Tony on the back. "That's why he's mine," she said with sarcasm. Kevin gives her a flirtatious grin. "Oh really?" he said. The suggestive look doesn't go unnoticed by the smiling Linda. Kevin was attractive after all. "I could always use more than one bodyguard, you know," she said back. The comment made Tony give her a WTF look. Kevin liked where this was going. As the small talk accelerated to excruciating awkwardness, Bridget tuned it out. Her eyes instead focused on a garden in a corner of the yard. A secluded portion of the Christy house landscape. The garden was lovely. The many flowers in full bloom. The whole thing was well-organized. Even in such thick humidity, anyone could enjoy such a serene sight. Standing a few feet away from the cherished garden, its shed was just as nice. Freshly painted and clean. Someone took this gardening shit pretty serious, Bridget thought. But Bridget couldn't help but wonder... wasn't this the site of a grisly crime scene just a little over a month ago? Why was this whole area so clean and neat? Had the homeowners just hit the reset button? "Bridget, come introduce yourself," Linda beckoned. Her rough grasp on Bridget's arm immediately destroyed whatever (and all too infrequently-pleasant) daydreams Bridget was conjuring. "This is the real brains of the operation right here," Linda told Kevin. "Ah, I see," Kevin commented. He sticks an eager hand out. "You're the gifted one?" "For what it's worth," Bridget responded as she forced a grin and shook his hand. "I'd be nowhere without Bridget," Linda explained. "God knows she's rescued me from so many crazies." Bridget noticed how Kevin eyed her with some skepticism. Nonetheless, he played it off well. "Nothing wrong with that," Kevin commented to Linda, . He motioned toward the house. "The house certainly is genuine for someone of her talents." Taking a step back, Linda gazed out at the home. Definitely not your typical haunted appearance. This wasn't Hill House or a Gothic castle, that's for sure. "It really doesn't look it, does it, Bridget?" Bridget gave Kevin a cold look. "Nope." "Y'all are aware of the tragedies of this house, I assume," Kevin pleaded. He faced the house himself, getting lost in the visual. "Two families were tragically torn apart in there." The others watched Kevin's "performance." He was putting on a show that demanded the stage. Shakespeare For Realtors. "This house guards many dark secrets," Kevin continued as looked at his customers with the intensity of a hammy leading man. "Two little children just snatched up outta here by their own daddy damn near a month ago, and that ain't even the start!" He paused for dramatic effect. Only Tony was uneasy which isn't saying much. "Now, I can't sell this place to a soul in Stanwyck. Something evil lurks in there, you see. Something otherworldly!" No one said anything even though it was obvious Linda and Bridget were unimpressed. "It's been there for over twenty years, and it ain't left!” Kevin went on, desperate to engage his potential buyers. “I can tell you that! It ain't leaving anytime soon." "Okay, man, I believe you," the nervous Tony chimed in. Like an all-too-friendly preacher, Kevin stepped up closer toward Linda. She liked his attention at least. "Now please, ma'am," Kevin started. "I assure you we have the proof for what you're looking for." "Who's we again?" Bridget inquired. Before Kevin could answer, a voice rained down from the cozy front porch. "That would be me." Everyone turned to see Amanda Baker herself standing right outside the front door. Right next to her favorite rocking chair. She looked defiant and rebellious. A Southern Belle of feisty strength rather than dutiful politeness. "And you're Amanda Baker?" Bridget asked sternly. Methodical, Amanda took a few steps toward her guests. "Indeed I am," she responded firmly. She stopped and looked right at them, holding them with her big green eyes. "And my friend Kevin here is right. The Christy house is indeed haunted. And we can prove it." "So you can, huh?" Bridget challenged. "I've got proof right inside," Amanda answered. Amanda and Bridget maintained intense eye contact. A staredown between two heavyweights. Bridget couldn't help but wonder why Amanda felt the need to wear jeans and a hoodie in this heat. One of many peculiarities with her probably, Bridget thought. Eager to break up the tension, Kevin led Linda and Bridget up to the front porch. "Let's go in, shall we." "That's fine," Bridget said to him. "You have a wonderful home," Linda exclaimed to Amanda as they stepped up on the porch. "Thank you," Amanda replied. Unable to help herself, Bridget glanced over at Amanda. "I'm getting a good vibe already," Bridget quipped with not-so-subtle sarcasm. "Oh, nothing evil?" Linda asked, the barb flying right over her head. Amanda just glared at Bridget. This was looking to be the beginning of a beautiful friendship. * The inside of Amanda's home was clean and well-furnished, but Bridget noted how it seemed to be lifeless. From what she understood, Amanda was supposed to have had a husband, a young daughter, and a young son less than a month ago. A nuclear family. So the question wasn't so much as where were they, but why was there no trace of them left? There were no obnoxious family photos, no toys strewn about, no outward signs of a child making a mess in the house via scribbling and drawing on the walls. In fact, there were no photos anyway. Just clean chairs and couch, a perfect flatscreen, and an antique mirror in the corner. Again, this was so clean considering the recent atrocity. The staircase nearby looked regal enough. Its wooden steps led up to a dark hallway. Who knew how many times Amy and Michael had stumbled up those steps? Or ran up it for that matter. In addition to the stoic white walls, the inclusion of a discreet security camera gave the room and house a clinical feel. To Bridget, the house didn't feel inhabited, much less haunted. It felt a relatively new building. Not a home. With everyone huddled around the flatscreen, Amanda made the group watch her so-called proof: different security videos. As the footage played, Amanda looked anxious and worried. She fit the part of the manic victim quite well. A personification of PTSD. Bridget thought Amanda looked to be trying too hard, but maybe Bridget was being too harsh. After all, this woman did just lose her entire family. The videos themselves were all impressive. Amanda showed them one after the other. Each one more chilling and convincing than the last. There it was on screen. This very living room. In the nighttime footage, the living room's camera had caught Amanda's front door creaking wide open on its own, the loud creak slicing through the midnight silence like an efficient blade. Then came the footsteps. Heavy footsteps that lumbered through the room. They came to a sudden. All seemed calm for a moment. Until a shelf toppled to the ground and was pushed across the floor in a rough slide. A scathing sound accompanied the shelf sliding against the floor. But no one was in the room, no one was seen pushing it. Another video was in Amanda's kitchen. This one in broad daylight and filmed by Amanda herself. Through a window, she pointed her camera at the beautiful garden. A perfect view save for a mysterious figure lurking near the garden. A tall figure that just stood there, their face guarded by shadows. As the wind ripped through their torn clothes, the figure turned and looked right on at the camera, right toward Amanda. In the clip, her terrified screams blared over the footage. Almost instantly, cracks appeared all throughout the window, running along the glass like cryptic spiderwebs. Jumping back, the horrified Amanda lowered the camera. She breathed heavy and staggered further back away from the window's new eerie design. Everyone watching the video was captivated. And silent. Even Bridget. On screen, Amanda took a moment to recover and regain her composure. She pointed the camera back out the kitchen window and got a clear view through the cracked glass. But the figure wasn't there. It was gone. The garden and shed stood all alone. Amanda started to relax. She coaxed herself back to a more calm state of mind. Maybe she was just seeing things. Then a harsh voice shattered those soothing thoughts with two cold words. "Die, Amanda!" Full of fear, the frantic Amanda screamed as she waved the camera all around the kitchen. She pointed it at the fridge, the counters, the wooden table, everything. She expected to see the creepy figure lurking right behind her. But she was alone. Amanda stopped screaming, but before she could relax, she noticed a long butcher knife lodged straight into the wooden table. The handle stuck straight out… challenging Amanda to grab it. Amanda let out another blood-curdling scream and shut off the camera in a panic. In a startling transition, another video played on screen. The video was taped off a camera from the upstairs hallway. It featured Amanda dressed in only a towel as she walked through the hallway, going toward the bathroom. Like she could sense someone watching her, Amanda stopped and turned around. Her worried eyes scanned the scene. Her face said it all. This wasn't the expression of someone mad at herself for imagining things. This was the face of a person convinced someone was inside their house. However, no one was there. Amanda was alone. But she didn't believe it. Fueled by anxiety, Amanda hurried into the bathroom and slammed the door behind her. She was heard stumbling inside as she turned on the shower. The running water was heard through the quiet hallway. Nothing seemed out of the ordinary. Until a quick glimpse appeared: the figure from outside. They were transparent and nothing more than a blur. Their legs couldn't even be seen. But even their quick movement couldn't hide its glowering male face and tattered shirt. Or its seemingly-singular focus on the bathroom. He resembled an Angel without wings or promises of solace. A stalking specter. In the living room, Kevin jumped back and yelled, feigning his over-the-top fright. Tony wasn't feigning his. Annoyed, Bridget ignored Kevin and stayed focused on the video. "Just keep watching," Amanda stated. In the video, the creepy man disappeared just a few feet away from the bathroom door. His apparition had made a quick appearance. Quick enough to be frightening yet quick enough to not seem staged. Honestly, the footage wouldn't look out of place on a ghost video feed... but it looked so much more authentic. The man was simultaneously abstract and haunting. The area was now silent save for the shower's onslaught of running water. Its incessant rhythm was reminiscent of pouring rain. It was soothing and pretty. But it seemed too safe. As if the man was waiting for the right moment to reappear for a brilliant jump scare. In the bathroom, Amanda was heard turning the shower off. The running water stopped. Cutting through those few moments of silence, an invisible force snatched the bathroom doorknob and shook it rapidly, desperate to get inside. The unnerving noise replaced the running water, but it definitely wasn't as soothing. It had the same harrowing intensity of heavy footsteps following you in the dark or heavy breathing from a mysterious caller. The whole time, no one was seen turning the knob. Not the man or anything that could be physically seen. Just the invisible force, a force of potent strength that kept rattling the knob. Amanda screamed and screamed in the bathroom. Responding to her cries, the force banged against the door in rapid succession, making it rattle with each ferocious hit. Amanda's cries grew louder. So did the force's hits. Someone wanted in to that room. Someone wanted Amanda. Right before the latest slam against the door, the video paused. Exclusive Excerpt from Emotional Defect 14
Illinois online gambling is legally permitted from offshore gambling sites that are operating legally within the industry and possess official credentials to establish their legitimacy. Just because the law is silent on taking part in online gambling, it does not mean that online gambling is legal in the State of Illinois. Online Gambling in Illinois Illinois has flirted with legalizing online casinos and poker sites since 2013, but all efforts to date have failed. As a result, online gambling remains prohibited, aside from sports betting and parimutuel horse racing betting. Known more for its political corruption, Michael Jordan, and deep-dish pizza (one of the finest tourist traps in America), Illinois is not a state the general audience associates with gambling. The state does indeed have an abundance of gambling options, but the lack of a centralized hub will never give it the appeal of Las Vegas or Atlantic City. Illinois online sports betting has been approved, although know that there is a waiting period before you can download an app and play from anywhere. The IL sports betting apps we expect to be downloadable are Caesars Sports and BetRivers Sportsbook as those brands’ parent companies already have retail casinos in the Land on Lincoln. Online gambling establishments have existed in Illinois for quite some time now, but they haven’t existed in the way you might think they have. In fact, most bets that are being placed online are on horse races. Sites accepting horse bets exist, but other than that there is no real regulated system for online casino play in Illinois. Despite the seemingly harsh laws against it, Illinois’ online gambling industry is growing fast. More individuals are playing at IL sports betting sites every single month. This is especially true now that the state decided to legalize sports gambling. To sum it up, the state’s online sports betting industry is in kind of a gray area. Soon, state-regulated online sportsbooks will begin Although it’s possible to be arrested for gambling online in Illinois, we haven’t found any residents who have been charged with a crime. Law enforcement in Illinois is more focused on residents who are operating online gambling sites. Is Illinois Going to Legalize Online Gaming? It’s possible that online gaming is going to be legalized in 2017 in Illinois. As of June 2017, a bill to Unlike many states in the USA, Illinois does currently offer some form of regulated Internet gambling. However, it may not be the kind of site you’re thinking of. While there are online casinos in Illinois, they are not state-regulated. Instead, the lottery offers the ability to buy tickets online, or subscribe to plans where you are consistently sold tickets for certain drawings over time. The program has proven popular, though players must both be located in the state and be residents of Any Illinois resident over the age of 18 can play on the state's lottery website. In May 2013, a measure emerged seeking to create a new Division of Internet Gaming within the Illinois Lottery. The new division could grant licensees the right to offer a range of internet-based gambling to the state's residents. Online gambling in Illinois is legal for certain types of gambling products. Residents can play the Illinois Lottery online. Furthermore, new Illinois gambling laws were introduced in 2019, which make it legal to bet on sports online. For a sports betting site to operate legally in IL, it must be partnered with one of the state’s commercial casinos and be licensed by the IGB.
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