Yesterday I commented on how you had a 1.43% chance of starting for a domestic Icelandic side if you were a male aged 15-39 using quickmaths^TM .
It got me thinking about other small nations and the likelihood of starting for a team in your own national league if you’re a man of playing age.

The Assumptions

To get a rough estimate, I need to make several sweeping generalisations.
Assumption 1) It’s just men.
Despite exceptions like Yuki Nagasato and Ellen Fokkema, I’ll calculate solely from the amount of men in a nation that are between 15-39.
Assumption 2) It’s every man.
I don’t care if you hate football, if you’ve got a condition preventing you from playing football, or if you’re registered as a citizen of your country but live elsewhere, you’re getting included. Likewise, this means those who live in one nation but are a citizen of another won’t be included.
Assumption 3) Starting XIs can only be comprised of 15-39 year olds.
I know many 40+ year old players will be out there, but this demographic would match the general career of top footballers. I’ll use population pyramids to get the amount of men in this demographic. Pyramids tend to move in 5 year increments so 15-39 is the most fair range I can think of.
Assumption 4) All teams are independent from each other.
Inaccurate I know, but if I was calculating for Spain, I’d be counting Barcelona and Barcelona B as two separate clubs. If there is an easy way to separate the reserve teams from the rest, I won't include them (as you’ll see, I’m quite loose with this assumption).

Method

Find out how many men aged 15-39 are in a country. Divide that by the number of teams in their domestic league. Divide that figure by 11. 1 Divided by this answer and multiplied by 100 will give the % chance of a random male aged 15-39 being in the starting 11 for a team any given matchday.
Formula:
M/T=X
X/11=Y
1/Y=Z
Z x 100 = % chance.
(M = men, T = teams)

Limitations

Lots. I’m not trying to be too serious here. As I’ve said, I’m not factoring in people who can’t play, people who have moved out of the country, players who have come in from a different country etc…
Recordkeeping at lower league levels is hard so even the amount of clubs in a league system is a bit shoddy. Some of the population pyramids are marked poorly so I’ll have to guesstimate as best as I can.

Leagues to look at

These are the 11 domestic leagues I’ll look at. Each of these countries/territories are FIFA recognised. Why these 11? They were all on the lower end of FIFA rankings and population number.

• Andorra
  
• Faroe Islands
  
• Gibraltar
  
• Liechtenstein
  
• Luxembourg
  
• Monserrat
  
• New Caledonia
  
• San Marino
  
• St.Kitts and Nevis
  
• Tahiti
  
• Turks and Caicos Islands
  

So, in order from lower to higher chance…

New Caledonia

Linguistically, New Caledonia is almost identical to Nova Scotia. Climatewise, they’re complete (but not polar) opposites. New Caledonia is neither an overseas region nor an overseas collectivity of France but lies in its own legislative niche in the southwest Pacific Ocean. The 70s was their golden age, with a win over New Zealand and scoring 3 against Bulgaria (only to concede 5). More recently they drew 1-1 against Estonia in 2017.
Their top division contains 12 teams, with a secondary division which contains up to 13 teams in any given season.
A 2019 population pyramid gives me an M number of 54032.
M = 54032 T = 25
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 0.51%.
My favourite domestic team: AS Magenta. They got to the Oceania Champions League Final in 2005, losing to Sydney FC.

Turks and Caicos Islands

A British overseas territory in the Caribbean, the wonderfully named Cockburn Town is it’s capital (pronounced cohw-burn like it’s Edinburgh Street counterpart). Horatio Nelson suffered a rare defeat of the coast of the islands in the 1780s and John Glenn landed near the islands in 1962 after his first spaceflight. Their national team hasn’t achieved much with only one World Cup qualifying win (which they lost on aggregate in the return leg).
Their domestic league has had up to 18 teams in the past, but last season only had 6 in their premier division. This number is fluid so the T number will be between 6-18.
A 2018 population pyramid brought the M number to c.12,200
M = 12200 T = 6-18
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 0.54-1.62%
My favourite domestic team: If you think Red Bull is bad for corporate branding, 2-time league champions KPMG United FC were a strong team in the mid 2000s. In 2006 they changed their name, and won another league title under the new name PWC Athletic.

Tahiti

Tahiti is the largest island in French Polynesia, but FIFA recognises it as a separate footballing nation. Lyle Lanley famously swindled the town of Springfield and fled toward Tahiti. Before he got there however, he was attacked by the inhabitants of North Haverbrook. Tahiti beat the Cook Islands 30-0 in 1971. You might remember Tahiti from the 2013 confederations cup where they played Spain, Uruguay, and Nigeria. They scored 1 and conceded 24 giving them the worst GD of any national team in any major competition.
There are 2 tiers to the Tahiti domestic league, these contain 32 clubs (+14 reserve teams that I won’t count).
A population pyramid for Tahiti is impossible to find, as it is a subregion of French Polynesia. Nevertheless, you can be from any of the other islands and still represent Tahiti. This calculation from a 2020 population pyramid gives me an M number of 52931
M = 52931 T = 32
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 0.67%
My favourite domestic team: It is a tie between AS Excelsior and AS Dragon. Combining them would give the league a mythical allure.

Luxembourg

Luxembourg have been improving rapidly internationally. They beat Hungary in 2017 and they drew 0-0 with France less than a year before France became world champions. Real glory was bestowed upon them in 1980 they reached the semi-finals of the Indonesian Marah Halim Cup where they eventually lost to a Burmese XI.
Luxembourg have 5 tiers in their domestic league. These 5 tiers are home to a massive 104 teams.
A 2019 population pyramid shows Luxembourg having 109,701 males in the relevant age bracket. I clearly underestimated Luxembourg’s population.
M = 109,701 T = 104
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 1.04%
My favourite domestic team: FC Yellow Boys Weiler-la-Tour. What a name. 500pax capacity stadium. They play in the 2nd division which is also known as The Division of Honour. Their primary rivalry is with FC Blue Boys Muhlenbach and FC Red Boys Aspelt with a secondary rivalry against FC Green Boys 77 Harlange-Tarchamps.

Liechtenstein

One of the few double-landlocked countries in the world (they are landlocked as are their bordering countries), Liechtenstein squeezes in between Switzerland and Austria. Their national side signalled the beginning of the end of Jack Charlton’s Irish tenure when they held Ireland to a 0-0 draw in 1995. Ireland went on to get 3 points from a possible 12 and missed out on Euro 96. In 2011 it took until the 97th minute for Scotland to beat Liechtenstein.
The 7 football teams that are based in Liechtenstein all play in the Swiss domestic league. This stretches from FC Vaduz in the top division, to FC Schaan who play in the 8th tier.
The most recent population pyramid I could find was from 2015. No worries. I’ll calculate the M number from the 10-34 age range here instead of the 15-39. In this way it is a slightly more accurate, but still really flawed figure. This number comes to a suspiciously specific 5473
M = 5473 T = 7
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 1.41%
My favourite domestic team: FC Vaduz. I’ve been to Vaduz. It was hot and expensive. While there, I caught a glimpse of Pak Kwang-Ryong, their star striker who has been the North Korean footballer of the year in 2013. Previously he scored against Spurs in 2011.

St.Kitts and Nevis

Saint Kitts and Nevis is a dual island nation in the Caribbean. Neil deGrasse Tyson takes his middle name from his Nevis born grandmother. Founding father of the USA, Alexander Hamilton, was also born on Nevis. As for St Kitts, Marcus Rashford has a Kittitian grandmother. St Kitts and Nevis got to within one round of qualifying for the 2006 World Cup and are the only Caribbean side to beat a European team, when they defeated Andorra in 2015.
The Saint Kitts and Nevis domestic league is split across two tiers and I can find evidence of 14 teams.
A 2018 population pyramid gives me a rough M number of 9,700.
M = 9700 T = 14
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 1.59%
My favourite domestic team: Village Superstars FC. The 7 times league champions have earned their title.

Andorra

Nestled in the Pyrenees, the Andorran national side are the perennial whipping boys of every European and World Cup qualifying cycle. In 2001 they took the lead against Ireland (but conceded 2 in the next two minutes). Albania and Hungary are among the teams that have lost to Andorra previously.
Domestically, clubs play in the Primera and Segona Divisió. I found many defunct clubs but from what I can see, there are currently 18 active clubs in Andorra
The most recent population pyramid I could find was from 2018. Using this data, I calculated that there are c.11,900 males aged 15-39 in Andorra.
M = 11900 T = 18
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 1.66%
My favourite domestic team: FC Andorra. The biggest side. Based in the capital. Named after the country but have never played in the domestic league. They play in Spain. They weren’t included in the calculation.

Faroe Islands

The Faroe Islands did the double over Greece in Euro 2016 qualifying. They’ve also beaten Iceland and Lithuania in the past. The beautiful rugged North Atlantic archipelago voted for independence in 1946 but this result was annulled by the Danes. 2 years later they were granted extensive home rule.
Like Andorra, there are 18 official clubs (There are 4 divisions in Andorra with the bottom ones being exclusively populated by reserve teams. I’ve only counted non-reserve teams in brazen defiance of my 4th assumption).
Again, the most recent population pyramid was from 2018. I found c.8800 15-39 year old males.
M = 8800 T = 18
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 2.25%
My favourite domestic team: B36 Tórshavn. A great run saw them reach the 3rd qualifying round of the Europa League this season, eventually losing out to CSKA Sofia

Gibraltar

Gibraltar has been a FIFA member since 2016. They’ve beaten Armenia, Latvia, Liechtenstein, and San Marino since becoming FIFA members. Their 2 tier national league is currently home to 17 clubs (2 recently disbanded).
Their 2018 population pyramid showed roughly 5600 eligible males living in Gibraltar.
M = 5600 T = 17
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 3.34%
My favourite domestic team: Lincoln Red Imps. They went 1,959 days unbeaten in the domestic league from 2009-2014. Followed up in 2016 with a win over Celtic. Not content with only one Old Firm scalp, they played Rangers this season but got smashed 5-0.

San Marino

One of two states completely enveloped by Italy, San Marino will be remembered for their 1993 match against England when they scored after 8.3 seconds and then went on to concede 7. On the other end of the 90 minutes, they scored an 87th minute equaliser against Ireland only to concede again in the 95th minute in 2007. Turkey, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Gibraltar, and Estonia are the only teams to have ever dropped points against San Marino. A 1-0 win over Liechtenstein in a 2004 friendly remains their only win to date.
The league system in San Marino comprises of 15 teams in two conferences (there is no relegation/promotion). The Sammarinese league is rated 55/55 regarding UEFA Coefficients.
I found a 2016 population pyramid, so like Liechtenstein, I shifted the data to 10-34 year olds for this M number. The number here was c.4800
M = 4800 T = 15
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 3.44% chance
My favourite domestic team: A.S. San Giovanni. The only team from San Marino that has never won anything domestically. They have a downright wacky poorly translated history on Wikipedia which only endeared them to me more.

Monserrat

A volcanic British Overseas Territory in the Caribbean. Due to huge eruptions that started in 1995, more than half of the island is uninhabitable. Many indentured Irish servants were brought to Monserrat which has left a noticeable impression on the demographics of the island. Riley, O'Brien, Farrell, Ryan, and Meade are some of the more prominent surnames on Monserrat. The 'Black Irish' of Monserrat is something that has often been reported on.
Monserrat routinely featured at the foot of the FIFA rankings for many years. On the day of the 2002 World Cup Final, Monserrat played Bhutan in what was called ‘The Other World Cup Final’ as it was between the two bottom ranked sides. Bhutan won 4-0 which was their first ever international win.
Monserrat has had an unstable league system due to constant volcanic eruptions. Teams come and go quite frequently. There are at least 5 times and at most 12, so the T number will be 5-12
With a tiny population, the Monserrat M number is only 1240.
M = 1240 T = 5-12
Chances of starting for a domestic team: 4.44%-9.68%
My favourite domestic team: Oh the Montserratian team names are amazing. Montserrat Volcano Observatory Tremors or the Seven Day Adventists Trendsetters would be my top picks.

Bonus

The Vatican City

The not FIFA recognised, home to so many skewed per capita records, I thought I’d include the Vatican just out of curiosity.
The Vatican actually has an internal domestic league, The Vatican City Championship, with 8 teams. The teams are comprised between the staff of the police, the newspapers, the library, and other administrative bodies. The pope is yet to line up for any of the sides. The league also has a cup competition, The Vatican Supercoppa
The only population pyramid I found was poor and unsourced. As there are minimal women living in the Vatican, It’s safe to assume almost all of the 825 residents are male. As it’s difficult to find age breakdowns, I’ll include every person living in the Vatican as my M number.
M = 825 T = 8
Chances of starting for a domestic team = 10.70%
TL;DR

Domestic League	% chance
New Caledonia	0.51
Turks and Caicos Islands	0.54-1.62
Tahiti	0.67
Luxembourg	1.04
Liechtenstein	1.41
St.Kitts and Nevis	1.59
Andorra	1.66
Faroe Islands	2.25
Gibraltar	3.34
San Marino	3.44
Monserrat	4.44-9.68
The Vatican1	10.70

¹ Not FIFA recognized.

Conclusion

Want your son to have the best chance of being in a starting XI? You better move to Monserrat. If you’re European and don’t want to move too far maybe San Marino is your best bet.
Of course if you were just looking to get into a matchday squad,you could roughly double the percentage.
There are around 200 countries in the world and I only looked at 5% of them. I’m sure there are other ones with better ratios out there but quite frankly, I’m too lazy.
Thanks for reading!
Sources:
Population pyramids:
https://www.populationpyramid.net/
https://www.theodora.com/
Club numbers:
www.wikipedia.org for general info and then the citations on wikipedia for a more detailed look.
https://int.soccerway.com/
www.FIFA.com

Part 2:
Aleksei entered his cramped office and sat at his desk, lighting a cigarette. Tatyana followed in closely afterward, pausing to survey the room.
​
There was one bookshelf against the wall to the left which was sloppily filled with textbooks, encyclopedias, and loose papers. Some had even fallen from the bookshelf and lay on the floor. The only sources of light in the room were a single bare lightbulb hanging from the ceiling, and a desk lamp. Aleksei’s desk was directly in front of her with a chair on either side. To the right was a large chalkboard that had writings and images all over it. Nothing specific, but what you’d expect to see in a scientist’s office.
​
Though, Aleksei was no scientist. He was a former KGB officer who was transferred suddenly to lead the boots on the ground team. Partly because of his piloting experience and his reputation in Moscow. Partly because of his unwavering loyalty to the Soviet Union.
​
“What do you think?” Aleksei asked as he flipped through some dossiers while taking a drag from his cigarette.
​
“About what Comrade Aksynov?” Tatyana asked, unsure why he was addressing her in English. Perhaps as a test of her fluency?
​
“About the team…”
​
“Well,” she said, taking a seat, “they aren’t Russian that’s for sure. Surely Moscow could have sent in -” She was abruptly interrupted
​
“This is how it has to be done. We couldn’t do this mission without the resources from the West. And in return, we are allowing them to participate.” He took another drag.
​
“In that case.” She looked down at the clipboard. She had been taking meticulous notes throughout the briefing. “Georgina Metz. Age 32. Studied Medicine at Harvard University. Smart, confident, calculating. She’s actually really great. Have you read her research paper on - ” Aleksei waved at her to continue.
​
She flipped to the next page. “Francois Leblanc. Age 48. Mechanical Engineer. University of Cambridge. Joined the French National Centre for Space Studies 18 years ago. Quite, intuitive, and ready to be led. He loves his country, and will do anything asked of him.”
​
She flipped to the last page. “Mark Kirby. Age 33. Mining and Mineral Engineer and US Army Officer. Crass, brutish, and untrusting of the Soviet Union. But damn good at what he does.” Tatyana flipped back to the first page and handed her clipboard over to Aleksei.
​
He thanked her and examined the notes, going back between them and the official dossiers for a few minutes before glancing up at her.
​
He then laid the clipboard to the side, checked his watch, and paused for a moment before asking, “Comrade Markov, why are you here?”
​
She was taken aback by the question. Was he not impressed with her qualifications? Did he think she was too young...too inexperienced at only 26?
​
“A-as you know. I was the one who translated the voices in the audio. Linguists and anthropologists all over the Union couldn’t, but I did. What if you encounter more writing or, or, or, more voices? You need me. Not here, but there. I want to be there. The others have skills, sure, but they don’t understand as I do. I mean, we haven’t even told them what..." She stopped herself, taking a deep breath. "I want to do this. For all Mankind.”
​
She fell silent. Looking for Aleksei to react. He shook his head slightly. “No Comrade, why are you here.” He gestured to the chair she was sitting in. “It is a quarter till 6pm. You were supposed to get the team to Warehouse 3C.”
​
She put her hand to her mouth. “Вот, дерьмо!”
​
Aleksei put out his cigarette with 3 quick jabs into his ashtray before picking up the phone on his desk and dialing. Tatyana stood and quickly left the room.
​
His thoughts lingered on what Tatyana had said. “For all mankind,” he said to himself.
​
The line connected and he spoke into the phone, “Okay, Comrades. It’s time to get you acquainted with your new toys. Meet me in Warehouse 3C.”
------------------------------------------------
Francois, Georgina, and Kirby traveled down the hallway. They were careful to follow the signs which directed them to Warehouse 3C as this facility was huge and they did not want to spend the next hour getting lost and backtracking.
​
“Wish they at least sent someone to escort us….” Francois thought out loud as he walked through hallway after hallway with the others.
​
While walking, he began reflecting on the whirlwind of events that had transpired. It was only 16 hours ago that he was sleeping soundly with his wife before being awoken suddenly by a knock on the door of his 2 bedroom apartment.
​
The knock had startled his infant daughter, Marie, awake. When she began to cry his wife, Elizabeth, sat up to rock her crib. Frustrated by the situation Francois crossed his apartment and answered the door. On the other side were two men in military uniforms.
​
One of the men immediately handed him a piece of paper while the other spoke. “Francois Leblanc?”
​
“Uh...yes?” Francois said, looking down at the paper in his hands.
​
“You are to come with us. You have been selected to participate in a top-secret mission in collaboration with other countries on behalf of France and the National Centre for Space Studies. Pack a single bag of essentials and meet us outside.” Then, men both turned and quickly walked away.
​
Francois was dumbfounded. He looked down at the paper again. It was an official order from the President himself co-signed by the head of the NCSS. There were no additional details.
​
Within 5 minutes Francois was packed and saying goodbye to his wife and daughter who were now both crying. “How can they just make you leave your family? Your newborn daughter? How can they just take you away in the middle of the night!” Elizabeth yelled through tears.
​
“They wouldn’t be here if it weren’t tremendously important. They probably just need some emergency consulting regarding some sort of new experimental tech they’re working on with NASA or something. Do not worry, my love. I will be back soon. Everything is okay. Je vous aime.” With that, he kissed his wife, said goodbye to his still crying daughter, and exited the apartment.
​
He was driven directly to a small airfield and then ushered aboard a military transport plane along with other similarly dazed personnel and multiple crates of equipment. This must have been more serious than he initially thought. What had he been asked to help with? Was he lying to his wife and himself when he said there was nothing to worry about?
​
Francois leaned back in his chair and buckled in, shaking the thoughts out of his head. There is no point dwelling on that now. Francois was ready to serve his country however he could, but he would be lying to himself if he didn’t acknowledge the knot that began to form in his stomach.
-------------------------------------------------------
“Hellooo...Earth to Francois?” Georgiana said melodically as she gave him a tap on the shoulder.
​
“Oh, uh, sorry. What was that?” Francois said, seemingly coming back to the here and now.
​
“Do you have anyone back home?”
​
“Yes. Yes, a wife and daughter.”
​
“I bet they’re very proud of you.” She said, thinking how nice it must be to have someone feel that way about you. She looked over to ask Francois another question, but he seemed to have retreated back into his own thoughts so she decided to leave him be.
​
After a few minutes, they turned a corner and arrived in yet another long hallway with brick walls and a dark concrete floor. She knew they were in the right place when she saw Tatyana waving them over to one of the doors about a third of the way down the hallway from where they stood.
​
“Привет, сюда!” Tatyana yelled, continuing to wave them over. The group approached her and she led them into the room.
​
When Georgina entered the room she was immediately impressed by its size. She expected a stuffy old warehouse with crates and shelves, various mechanical equipment, tools, etc. Yet, what she entered was a large football stadium-sized room with a few tables and crates sitting just by the door they entered in. In the center was a Lunar Lander and next to it was a Moon rover.
​
Incredible what the Soviets had done here. They secretly constructed an entire facility in and under the Siberian wilderness and had done so in apparently record time. “Do the Americans have anything like this?” She thought to herself.
​
The group stopped at the tables, Tatyana walked to the other side of the tables joining a tall, lanky looking scientist. “Everyone, this is Dr. Maxwell. He led the development team for everything you’ll see here today.”
​
Dr. Maxwell reached out and shook their hands. “It is nice to meet you. Let’s get to it.”
​
He opened a locker behind him and removed three pistols. To Georgina, they looked like something out of a science fiction novel.
​
“The Soviet Union began experimenting with lasers in the fifties and sixties. Its first laser weapons, emerging in the seventies, were fixed ground-based systems. Terra-3 and Omega. Terra-3 encompassed two different devices, installed in Kazakhstan initially conceived in the 1960s to swat down ballistic missiles in the terminal descending phase.
​
The concurrently developed Omega lasers were intended to hit aircraft and missiles in the atmosphere. Omega-1 and -2 proved more successful at striking distant targets, but the system still lacked sufficient hitting power and power generation. Designing a laser that could maintain a power-efficient beam over long distances is difficult—so perhaps, I thought, the solution was to get up close.
​
In 1984, my team developed a laser pistol, a precursor to what you are seeing here today. It was intended for use by Cosmonauts to damage the optics of Western satellites or blind hostile astronauts, without causing hull damage to a spacecraft. Each pull of the trigger electrically discharges a pyrotechnic flashbulb cartridge stored in an eight-round box magazine.
​
However, the laser pistols inflicted very light damage—between one and ten joules of energy, equivalent to an air gun—and had an effective range of only twenty meters. The design did not advance beyond the prototype stage. Or so we reported.
​
Here, at this facility, we continued our work and have created what you see before you. A true laser pistol, capable of viable use in combat”
​
Yet again, as with the footage from the Moon, the group was left speechless.
​
“As you can see, we do great work here,” Tatyana said proudly, standing a little taller.
​
“Hell. Yes. This is awesome. I can’t wait to tell the crew back in the States about this.” Kirby grabbed one of the pistols and began aiming with it, pointing it towards a stack of crates behind the tables.
​
Georgina inspected one as well. “This is truly remarkable, Doctor. Why are they so large though? Won’t these be difficult to carry and handle?”
​
“We constructed this with your EVA suits and the Moon’s lesser gravity in mind. The pistols will rest snuggly in your gloved hands and the weight will not be an issue. The size is because we do not yet have the technology to make it any more compact. But, an additional feature of this device is that since these are not projectile-based weapons, there is no recoil to worry about. Truly the best defense a Cosmonaut could ask for. Well, aside from the suit.” Dr. Maxwell said.
​
Georgina stepped back. “Wait...are you all expecting we will need to use these?” She asked Tatyana.
​
“Better to have it and not need it, then need it and not have it,” Aleksei said as he entered the warehouse. “After all, we wouldn’t want to equip our heroes with anything but the best. That is true Soviet hospitality.”
​
“Regardless, these pistols have uses beyond that of a traditional pistol. They can work to cut or heat objects, and can even create small holes through rock and minerals with enough shots.” Dr. Maxwell said, nodding towards Aleksei as he approached.
​
“Have we given them a rundown of their transportation?” Aleksei asked.
​
“We were just about to, Comrade Aksynov.”
​
The group walked together to the center of the room where the two vehicles were located. One was a Lunar Lander and the other a rover, neither unlike that of the ones the Americans used when landing on the Moon. The only immediately identifiable difference was a large metal box affixed to the back of the rover and attached to that a long barrel ran from the back of the vehicle, down the middle, pointing out the front. It looked out of place, even to Georgina.
​
“What is that for, Doctor?” She inquired.
​
“That, Frau Metz, is for Mr. Kirby. A drill capable of cutting through the toughest material we know of. This is how you will regain access to the artifact’s chamber”
​
“Enough about that,” Aleksei interjected. “We will run through various scenarios and training for both of these. We need each of you to be able to confidently operate and troubleshoot them in case something goes wrong.
​
“And what about the shuttle itself?” Asked Francois.
​
Aleksei shook his head. “I am the pilot, it would take too long to train you all on how to operate it. Besides...this gives us some assurances.”
​
“What assurances?” Asked Kirby
​
“He means that it ensures his safety. That we protect his life by any means necessary. Because, without him, none of us are going home.” Georgina answered, crossing her arms and looking to Aleksei. She hadn’t decided if she trusted him yet, but she certainly respected him. “What have I got myself into…” she thought.
​
Aleksei began taking off his coat. Handing it to Dr. Maxwell. “Alright, it’s time to suit up and begin your training. This mission is on a tight schedule and I will not throw things off track with idle chit-chat. This is too important.”
​
“Important for who, Aleksei. You, your scientists, Moscow?”
​
Aleksei looked into Georgina’s eyes. Eyes, filled with determination. “This mission is bigger than any of us. It is vitally important that we accomplish what we are setting out to do. Find our lost team and regain access to the artifact.”
​
“Not for me, not for us. For all Mankind.”
​
- End of Part 2
​
Read Part 1: The Americans Didn't Make It to the Moon First. Their Astronauts Just Lived to Tell the Tale. : cryosleep (reddit.com)

The bad calls made all the difference. When teams get bad calls. They lose momentum and morale. And when you lose momentum and morale it is hard to win. Most of football is mental. And when the refs working against you gain a sense of hopelessness because even if you try hard it won't matter. Because when the games on the line the calls will always go in the favor of Brady, we know this, we have seen it happen for years, and multiple games this season. This is not a new thing. I don't think the refs should even be in the discussion of favoring any team over another. Saying it didn't make a difference because it wasn't close enough is the exact thing cheaters would want you to believe. They said the exact same thing about spy gate, where knowing your opponents plays gives a huge advantage. The patriots went from the worst team in the league to winning multiple Super Bowls with spy gates. Because of this Brady gained stronger rosters for gaining the reputation of winning when he cheated in the first place to gain that reputation. He went undefeated a season because every team in the league had to switch up their play books and calls after learning they had been stolen. He lost to in the Super Bowl to a physically superior d line and a hurry up offense that moved to fast for them to call plays to counter them as they could still remember the calls. The reality is that knowing what your opponent is going to do in any competition is an unfair advantage. In a pro poker match the guy who knows the cards everyone holds and the order of every card in the deck is much more likely to win, I am not saying it is guaranteed, its not 100%, but the odds are in his favor. What the patriots did is worse than the equivalent to peaking at someones screen in a video game, or someone cards in the had of a Yu-Gi-Oh game, because it was a calculated and coordinated effort involving many people instead of just one individual cheater. Turns out they've been using deflated footballs. Again this gives an advantage, they are easier to catch, less likely to fumble, and you can run faster with deflated balls. It is easier to catch a deflated football than a highly inflated one, as it won't bounce of your hands as much. You can also do faster snaps while reducing the likelihood you fumble thus speeding up the whole offense. Still people said it didn't matter, as the seahawks should of ran the ball. But they shouldn't have been there in the first place, they used it to blow out the colts, and the colts had a different run defense than the patriots, which means if the Seahawks were in the same position against, they might have ran the ball. Unless Marshawn Lynch walked into the end zone without a holding call, if it came down to inches, it would go in the favor of Brady, because refs. In this case you have to work out the fact the refs will always favor Brady when the game is on the line and even when it isn't. And thus, it is better the throw the ball to ensure he is clearly in the end zone. Had it been the Brady who threw that ball, the DB who picked it off would have been called for a pass interference for bumping the guy out of the way before he even touched to ball. Now they also won a Super Bowl with a roided up wide out, they tested Eric Ried how many times? And how many times did they test Edelmen? Hence the double standard for roid testing when involving a guy playing with Brady. In addition in the Falcons game there was a clear face mask call that should of canceled out the holding call. If it was Brady in the position of Matt Ryan. The face mask would have been called and the holding would not have been called. A player on the Bucs held a linemen in the exact same fashion as the Falcon linemen and didn't get called against the Packers. And then there was the time when Gronk lay hit a guy, clear unnecessary roughness. In the Super Bowl against the Eagles. People said it didn't matter because Brady dropped the ball to a pass that was a clear touchdown. I am sure Eagles fans would have cared about that call more if they had lost. The refs need to make fair calls at all times. And they are clearly not doing this when it comes to Brady. The way they Refs get you is they make you think that it doesn't make a difference when it does. The Refs unfair calls should not tip the odds in favor of any team at any point of the game. Why? Because bad calls can decide possession. And possession decides who controls the game. If you get more possessions in the first half you can tire the opposing defense for the second half. You can also keep a high powered offense from picking up steam. You can also tire an offensive line, by having them drive all the way down, and then making a bad call. Penalties also decide field position. Field position decides who wins. Also the coin toss matters. The Chiefs elected to defer. The team in the half that receives first gains more possessions and more chances to score. If the team that defers is in within one possession, they have better odds at winning. If they are in the lead, they have even greater odds at winning. But if they need a couple of possessions to win, as was the case for the Chiefs because of the Refs. Then your odds are obviously less. The Refs made deciding call for possession and field position. Allowing the Bucs to gain a multi possession lead thus greatly titling the odds in favor of their favorite guy, Brady. I know you guys want to convince yourselves that the calls didn't matter. People will call you losers for seeing it any other way. But admitting that there were bad calls and then saying they didn't matter is a state of cognitive dissonance. Your very beliefs contradict each other. The calls were bad and they did matter. Some people are making an argument comparing the rigging of the NFL to the elections. These are totally different. Elections are a highly legally regulated environment. Any cases go before a fair judge, both sides can present their case, but it is down to the interpretation of the law. A player cannot litigate a play call, he can't take it to court, the most he can do is take a complaint to arbitration which is run by the NFL, even still he can't undo the call in the moment. If he tries to protest it he can get another call, a fine, or even ejected. In addition there was no evidence of election fraud. Yet we have literal video evidence of unfair calls clearly favoring Brady on repeated occasions. What is the motive? Why would the NFL do this? They want to call Brady the goat, they wanted the Super Bowl in Tampa. They want to compare him to Jordan, but they want to leave Bill Russell out of the discussion because that kills the debate. They want to undo the stain of the spy gates wins so people can say "Hey, he can win without spy gate, so it didn't matter." Well the league doesn't revolve around Brady. There are plenty of other fans who would love to see the team their rooting for win, and the player their a fan of win. And it is not fair to rig it in favor of a single team, let alone a single player. Now cheating in the way Brady does it doesn't guarantee wins, but it does increase the odds. I feel as if to make a fair analogy of comparing the rigging of the NFL to unproven claims of election fraud. The refs should release their tax returns to see if they are taking any bribes or placing any sports bets, similar to how a president might release his tax returns. I don't want to make this politcal I just want to remove the parody argument of comparing Brady's cheating and illegitimate wins, to legitimate presidential wins that were upheld by the courts, congress, our electoral college, and votes of the American people. If someone bribes a judge or jury or officer that is a crime. If it was found that a person had a large stake in a company being sued he wouldn't make a fair jury, thus a ref shouldn't have a stake for a certain team or player to win. And they must prove this by publicly release their tax returns. And if they falsify their returns they should be charged with tax fraud. Every ref in the NFL should release all their tax returns publicly. And the returns should go back to the beginning of Brady's career. This way we can prove once and for all that the refs were not rigging games in favor of Brady. And the jokes about the refs working for Brady will just be funny jokes. And we can take our loss in peace, or we can storm the NFL HQ demanding them to give the Chiefs the Super Bowl win.
​
TLDR: The refs calls titled the odds in favor of the Bucs, they should release their tax returns dating back to when Brady joined the league to prove they do not have financial conflicts of interests.

Deshaun Watson's trade value and destinations, plus what the Houston Texans do next
Jeremy FowlerESPN Staff Writer
The potential -- inevitable? -- Deshaun Watson breakup with the Houston Texans is running its natural course, with four stages cleared and more coming: Stage 1: Watson's unhappiness over ownership decisions goes public. Stage 2: Watson doesn't return phone calls from the Texans. Stage 3: An Adam Schefter tweet reminds us that, yes, this is real. Stage 4: Watson and his marketing agent like an Instagram account showcasing a New York Daily News cover saying the New York Jets must do "WATever it Takes" to get Watson in a trade. Not everyone around the league is convinced the Texans will trade Watson. But we know how these things usually go. And we know the next stages: Stage 5: Houston will "listen" to offers, but isn't actively trading Watson. Stage 6: OK, so now they are initiating trade talks. Stage 7: Teams that really want him try to downplay his importance by pumping up the quarterbacks they already have, but don't like as much. This is the NFL's circle of life, and short of new GM Nick Caserio going full John Cusack with the boombox outside of Watson's window, a trade feels very possible. This is wild to say about a top-five quarterback in his prime. Which is also why the Texans can, will and should try everything possible to reconcile this. But Watson clearly is frustrated by the Texans' business dealings, and he's showing the power he wields without saying a word. Embattled executive Jack Easterby, a former chaplain and character coach, is fighting for his job, influencing decision-making at the top and rankling a faction of the locker room with a disingenuous mix of faith and football, according to investigative work by Sports Illustrated. Owner Cal McNair said he would involve Watson in the process of hiring a general manager and head coach, but swiftly hired Caserio, with whom Easterby has a relationship from his days in New England. This usurped Watson's desire for a culture change, and a source close to Watson told ESPN's Chris Mortensen that firing Easterby would not resolve the issue, saying that "Cal McNair would have to fire Cal McNair." This is a massive story that deserves treatment from all angles, setting the stage for perhaps the biggest blockbuster deal since the Minnesota Vikings traded away eight draft picks, including three first-round selections, five veteran players and more to acquire Herschel Walker in 1989. After several talks with NFL personnel, here's what to expect from the Watson saga, the teams people in the league are talking about as best fits, and why it could take an unprecedented haul to get the 25-year-old out of Houston.
What does Watson's contract look like?
In September, Watson signed a four-year, $156 million extension with a $27 million signing bonus, an average annual payout of $39 million and $73 million guaranteed.
Watson had two years left on a rookie deal that included a fifth-year option, so the Texans worked that remaining money into the deal for a total haul of around $180 million over six years, expiring after the 2025 season. The Texans had an offseason to forget. They foolishly traded away DeAndre Hopkins for Day 2 draft capital. They were reeling and needed a move to instill confidence and spin the franchise forward. Signing Watson to the second-richest contract in NFL history behind Patrick Mahomes' 10-year, $450 million deal was an easy call.
Why is the deal friendly to prospective teams?
Because the Texans must keep the signing bonus on their salary cap, which means Watson's payout and salary cap on a new team would be $10.54 million in 2021, a serious bargain for any quarterback, let alone a top-five passer. The next two years are heavier lifts: $35 million in 2022, all base salary, and $37 million in 2023, including a $20 million salary and a $17 million roster bonus. So a team acquiring Watson would pay $45.5 million over the next two years and $82.5 million over three years. For comparison, that's roughly the same amount the Eagles are scheduled to pay Carson Wentz (three years, $81.9 million) over the same span. "A bargain," said an NFL salary-cap executive. "I bet many teams would do that in a heartbeat." Watson's $32 million base salaries in 2024 and 2025 are not guaranteed, so most teams would focus on the three-year window with Watson.
Can Watson really pick his new team based on a no-trade clause?
Sort of. Watson's contract states that the Texans are not permitted to trade Watson unless the player gives the team written consent to do so. So, in the realest sense, Watson has to sign off on a deal. If the Texans have a deal lined up with Team X and Watson doesn't want that team, he can withhold that consent.
Max, Stephen A. slam Texans for situation with Deshaun Watson
Max Kellerman and Stephen A. Smith break down how the Texans have fractured the relationship with Deshaun Watson, their franchise quarterback.
If this process goes far enough, the Texans and Watson's agent, David Mulugheta, can discuss teams that would generate approval from Watson, so it's a nonissue once a trade gets close. While the no-trade clause is leverage in the typical sense, Watson also has something else on his side. "He's the franchise QB that speaks on behalf of a frustrated locker room," an NFC exec said. "If he's not happy, those guys in the locker room will follow him. And that can have a lasting impact on your entire team's performance in 2021."
What does all that mean for the Texans' options?
If a trade happens, it means the Texans would have paid $29.4 million to Watson for the 2020 season, then taken on $21.6 million in dead salary cap for trading away a generational player -- unless they can make a case through NFL's management council that the new team should absorb some of the signing bonus, which doesn't often happen. No draft haul will ease that pain. "I've talked to GMs who say why would you give away a player who's so talented and young and such a building block?" an NFL personnel man said. "Especially as you just paid him $27 million a few months ago." Caserio looms large here. What's clear is Watson didn't like the process by which the new GM landed the Texans' job; this implies he's not exactly thrilled by the hire, though his problems seem directed at the people doing the hiring. But several people in the league say the Watson drama has camouflaged the home run hire Houston just made. Caserio was a key component to New England's run and is well-respected around the league. He also embodies the Patriot Way, which means he'll move in calculated silence. "The one thing I know about Nick is he'll do what's best for the Texans -- if that means Watson stays, he'll stand firm on that," an AFC personnel man said. "I believe that." The Texans' leverage is simple: Players show up when the money is in jeopardy. An extended absence from the team could eventually default Watson's contract, which puts paying back signing-bonus money on the table. But that would ignite an already-wounded locker room. Good luck with that. "I'd be hard-pressed to believe they want to get out of this deal," an NFC exec said. "Something doesn't add up."
How does the NFL view Watson as a player?
Watson was the No. 4 quarterback in our top 10 series ranking players at each position with input from more than 50 NFL coaches, execs and scouts, narrowly defeating Drew Brees with toughness and dynamic playmaking. Teams laud Watson's special playmaking despite a subpar offensive line for the better part of his four seasons in Houston. Clutch performances are a trademark for Watson, whose 10 game-winning drives in his first three seasons were the most of any NFL quarterback from 2017 to '19. Comebacks were hard to find during the Texans' 4-12 season in 2020, but Watson didn't hurt his stock with a career-high 112.4 passer rating along with 4,823 yards, 33 touchdown passes and seven interceptions, completing 70.2% of his passes. He was top five in several categories: yards per attempt (second, 8.3), Total QBR (fourth, 69.9), percentage of throws that result in a first down (second, 39.9%), expected points added as a rusher among QBs (second, +69.0) and completion percentage above expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats (fourth, 64.5%). Still, NFL personnel evaluators maintain Watson isn't the easiest player to assess because he has taken a jarring 174 sacks, isn't considered elite with pocket maneuvering and, in the eyes of one NFL coordinator, could use more offensive structure and tough coaching.
Watson takes sacks on 8.3% of his dropbacks, the most of any NFL player with 20 or more games played. Only Russell Wilson has more sacks since 2017, during which the Texans' offensive line ranked 13th in pass block win rate, indicating you can't totally blame blocking for the sack numbers. Watson has a 3.0% interception rate when his team has the lead, which is fifth worst in the league. "Deshaun can continue to improve as a quarterback, which is probably the most exciting thing about him," an NFC exec said. "He's a high-level guy with all the tools and he's still got nuances that he can master, and he seems to be chipping away at those each year." Watson is hardly a slam dunk to earn the No. 4 spot in this year's rankings, though, with Josh Allen coming on in a big way.
What will Watson's trade value be?
All those numbers stress how unprecedented a quarterback of this stature being potentially available really is. Since 2000, eight veteran NFL players were traded for multiple first-round picks. The only quarterback on that list is Jay Cutler, who went from the Broncos to the Bears in 2009 in exchange for Kyle Orton, back-to-back firsts and a third-round pick. Several of these deals came recently. In 2019, the Los Angeles Rams and Texans gave up two firsts for cornerback Jalen Ramsey and tackle Laremy Tunsil, respectively. That 2021 pick from Houston gives Miami the No. 3 overall selection, thanks to a deal former coach Bill O'Brien executed before his 2020 firing. Last offseason, the Seattle Seahawks sent two firsts to the Jets for safety Jamal Adams. Then there's the Robert Griffin III trade in 2012, with the Washington Football Team giving the Rams two future first-round picks for the right to move from No. 6 to No. 2 overall in that draft.
Technically, no player since Herschel Walker has garnered three first-rounders. That would definitely change with Watson, several evaluators say. "Oh yeah -- he's worth at least that," one NFC exec said. "The haul would be pretty insane." NFL front-office personnel are unanimous in this, with several saying additional draft capital might be necessary. It largely depends where the picks in the first round might fall. Many pointed out that if Adams, Ramsey and Tunsil garnered two firsts, Watson should get far more because of the importance of the quarterback position.
When could Watson be dealt?
Trades can't be executed until March 17, the first day of the new league year, but teams can agree in principle to a deal well before then. A hard deadline might be April 29, the first day of the draft. It makes little sense to do it after, since any pact would likely need to include a first-round pick this year. Perhaps the Texans could play hardball and push this through the offseason, knowing the draft capital will be there for future years. Maybe Caserio doesn't like the quarterbacks in this year's draft. That also gives Watson more time to change his mind. But evaluators agree that pre-draft is the time to do it.
What are the potential destinations for Watson?
Acquiring Watson might require not only three first-rounders, but at least one very high pick, multiple evaluators say. That's why those same evaluators consistently point to two teams: the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. Both teams have two things in this year's draft that others don't: a top-three pick, and multiple firsts. New York has the second overall pick and the 23rd pick, acquired in the Adams trade. Miami selects third and 18th overall. Working with these two teams gives Houston the chance to draft Watson's replacement or take on their respective current starters, Sam Darnold or Tua Tagovailoa, if they want one of them. "If Houston does a deal with one of them, I bet they go after both firsts in this cycle, because that immediately helps them get better in a year they have limited capital," said an AFC personnel man, referring to Houston's lack of picks in the first two rounds this year. "In future years, you don't know what those picks are going to be." Both teams easily could absorb Watson's contract. The Jets' $69,385,570 in projected cap space is enough for Watson and some free-agent wide receivers to join him. The Dolphins have $24,876,158 in space -- and no state income tax, which Watson has gotten used to playing in Texas. The Texans could ask teams to throw in star or ascending players to sweeten the deal. The Jets' best asset might be left tackle Mekhi Becton, but GM Joe Douglas probably won't want to part with his first draft pick. Becton looks like a future All-Pro. The Dolphins have interceptions leader Xavien Howard and intriguing young pass-rushers, for starters.
Multiple execs estimate anywhere from 10-15 teams would at least consider giving up major draft capital to get Watson. There are simply too many QB-starved teams out there. The Carolina Panthers have been linked to Watson if he were to become available, and it's true that they see Watson as a player worth serious draft capital. That doesn't mean they would go all the way. But they are a team to watch. They don't appear completely sold on Teddy Bridgewater and are poised to select a quarterback high in April's draft. They have $14.3 million in cap space, the eighth overall pick and are in the process of getting younger. Watson, a Georgia native, would be getting back to the Southeast. Bridgewater's three-year, $63 million contract signed last year isn't crippling for Carolina long term. His $17 million salary is guaranteed for this year, but the team could actually save $1 million in cap space by designating Bridgewater a post-June 1 release, according to ESPN's Roster Management System. In 2022, they can walk away with $21 million in cap savings. Don't laugh, but another sleeper team that a few NFL people have mentioned as a potential fit is the Chicago Bears. There are people in that building who are very high on Watson and they could be looking for a reboot at the position as Mitchell Trubisky's contract expires. GM Ryan Pace could essentially get a mulligan on the 2017 draft. Pace might not have favored Watson then, but he has more, uh, evidence now. Their $10.2 million cap deficit is a stumbling block, but cutting or restructuring veteran contracts can help. Releasing tight end Jimmy Graham and guard Bobby Massie takes care of $13 million in space. The Bears pick 20th in the draft and might have to throw in an extra Day 2 pick to compensate for the lack of high standing. Whatever it takes to get Chicago's first 4,000-yard passer in franchise history. And for as bad as the NFC East was this year, there's an improving team with $35.4 million in cap space and tons of intriguing young players who could make a move: the Washington Football Team. "I think they will be involved in the QB sweepstakes in a big way," an NFC exec said. "They know they are close."
Will a trade really happen?
Team officials are torn on this, because trading him makes little sense logistically, but the story isn't going away. "He just signed his deal, what, five months ago," one AFC exec said. "You've got to think they had plans to stay together long term when they did this. I know things have changed but if the right people get on the phone and cooler heads prevail, maybe they can squash all this." The hiring of the coach will be significant. Even if Watson isn't returning calls, the Texans know the QB favors Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy for the job. Bieniemy virtually interviewed with the team Monday and is considered a legitimate candidate.
One NFL personnel exec brought up a concern over giving up so much draft capital and absorbing the financial commitment for a player who appears to be forcing a trade. What if the player turns around and does the same to you, he asked? And he wonders if that would give enough teams pause to halt a deal. But Watson might have documented behind-the-scenes stories that illustrate an even deeper Texans problem than expected. And Watson, by all accounts, has been a high-character guy throughout his football career. "It seems like he might just be fed up," an AFC personnel evaluator said. "And if he's willing to dig in on it, there might be no coming back and the team figures it has to do a deal when draft capital is so precious in today's game."

TL:DR

• This is Part 1 of my two part deep dive on DraftKings (Ticker: DKNG, I will refer to the company as “DK”)
• This first part introduces you to (1) me, (2) the company, (3) my thesis on the company, and (4) digs into how they make money.
• The second part (already released, you can read it here - but get through part 1 first :) ) will go in depth to explore the question “Can we 10x from here?”
• DK is an exciting, disruptive company working to change how we experience watching sports and make it better.
• I am not a financial advisor and this is not investment advice. These are just my opinions to help facilitate learning and discussion.

Hello, welcome to my first deep dive write up.
My name’s Mark and I’m an accountant with a passion for investing. About two years ago, I used to work as an auditor at a public accounting firm and have been behind the scenes at many different publicly traded and privately held companies in the U.S. My goal is to bring my unique perspective from that past experience, my current experience working in a new role at a large corporation, and my understanding of accounting to help break down some of the most exciting growth stocks on the market today.
I’m a long-term investor. I am focused on finding great companies and holding them for a long time. I’m willing to endure volatility, crazy price drops, and everything that comes with this approach as long as the facts that led me to originally invest and believe in that company have not changed. If you want to learn more about this approach. I recommend reading the book “100 Baggers” by Chris Mayer.
Introduction
I think it’s fitting that my first stock pick has to do with sports. Sports has been a part of my life since I could walk at the age of 2. First with baseball and soccer, and then later in my childhood with golf. I’ve always played American football and basketball for fun as well and have always been an avid fan of all the major sports in the US.
I started playing fantasy sports (mostly just fantasy football) about 6 years ago and have always enjoyed it. Traditionally, with fantasy football you draft a team at the beginning of the year and those are your players for the rest of the season. If you have a bad draft, oh well. You can try to improve your team with trades and free agent additions but it is tough. Leagues usually consist of 10-14 teams (each managed by an individual) and there’s obviously only one winner at the end of the season (about 4 months after the draft). This can lead to the managers of the lower performing teams losing interest as the season wanes on. I believe DraftKings’ (DK) founders saw this issue and saw an opportunity. Enter, daily fantasy sports. Now, with the DK platform you can draft a new team every week. Or if you want, every day. This allows fans of fantasy sports to engage at whichever point of the season they want and at varying financial stakes.
The Thesis Statement
For every stock pick I make, I want to provide a quick thesis statement that can serve as a reminder for why I’m buying and holding that stock for the long term. I’ll always aim to make it just a few sentences long so it can easily be remembered and internalized. This helps during times when the price may sporadically drop and you need to remember why you’re holding this position.
The thesis statement I have come up with for DK is as follows:
“DraftKings: The leader in allowing fans to engage financially with their favorite sports, teams, and players. Having money at stake makes the game a lot more interesting to watch. The era of daily fantasy sports games, online sports betting, and online betting (outside of sports), is just getting started and DK is as well positioned (or better positioned) than anyone to capitalize off of this trend.”
Notice how I said “allowing fans to engage financially” as the first sentence and not necessarily “allowing fans to gamble”. There’s a reason for that. According to US Federal Law, Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) contests have specifically been exempted from the prohibitions of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA). DK has always been, and I believe will continue to be DFS contests 1st, sports betting 2nd, and other forms of gambling/entertainment 3rd. It is noteworthy that states at an individual level can still deem DFS contests illegal if they so wish, but as of this writing (11/26/20), 43 of the 50 US States allow DFS contests and DK, accordingly, is offering DFS contests in all 43 of those US States.
I’ll try to clarify the difference between DFS contests and sports betting real quick:
DFS Contest – Pay a pre-set entry fee to enter a contest. All entry fees go towards “The Pot”. “Draft” 9 players to be on your “Team” for 1 week. Enter your “Roster” into a contest with other players (could range from 1 other person to 1,000s of people, the DK user can choose). Whichever “Roster” amasses the most points for that week out of all contestants wins. The winner will get the highest payout, and depending on the nature of the contest, other top finishers will receive smaller payouts as well.
Sports Gambling – Team A is considered a 10 point favorite to defeat Team B. This means that Team A is expected, by the professional gambling line setters, to outscore Team B by 10 points. This is known as a point spread. You can bet on the underdog or the favorite. If you bet on the favorite, they have to win by more than 10 points for you to win the bet. If you bet on the underdog, you will win the bet as long as the underdog keeps the game within less than a 10 point defeat.
These are just a couple simple examples to help you see the difference. Sports Gambling (the 2nd priority of DK) is a very lucrative market just as the DFS contests are. However, in the US, Federal Laws and regulations are a lot stricter on Sports Gambling than they are on DFS. As of this writing (11/27/20), 22 states (including the District of Columbia) out of 51 possible allow sports gambling.
DK is still in the infancy stages of getting their sports gambling business going. In the 22 states where they could potentially operate, they currently have a sports gambling offering in 11 of those states. The sports gambling business model for DK can be broken into two main offerings – mobile sports betting, and retail sports betting. Mobile sports betting means you can place a sports bet online from the comfort of your own home, while retail sports betting means you must go to a casino and place a bet with the sportsbook in person. I personally believe mobile sports betting is the real potential cash cow for DK out of the two types of sports betting offerings due to the convenience and ease of access. DK is currently working on and encouraging customers to lobby their state lawmakers to legalize sports gambling in more states.
How DK makes money
At the very least, before you invest in a company, you better understand how they make money. In Chris Mayers’ excellent book, 100 Baggers, that I mentioned above, he continually references top line revenue growth as one of the main common indicators of a possible 100 Bagger. This isn’t to tell you that any stock I pick will be a 100 Bagger just because it has great top line revenue growth, but if I am looking at a growth stock to hold for the long term, revenue growth is one of the first things I look at.
For DK, their means of making money is quite simple. I already went into detail above about DFS Contests and Sports Gambling. In DK’s latest 10-Q filing with the SEC (filed 11/13/20), revenue is broken out into two main streams: Online Gaming and Gaming Software.
Online Gaming (82% of Total Revenue for 9 months ended 9/30/20):
Online gaming is the true core business of DK and includes the aforementioned DFS Contests, Sports Gambling and additional gambling (non-sports) opportunities. DK refers to their additional gambling (non-sports) as “iGaming” or “online casino”.
For the 9 months ended 9/30/20, Online Gaming revenue totaled $239M, up 30% YoY from $184M in the same prior year period. Keep in mind, that this is an increase that happened during a COVID-19 global pandemic that delayed and shortened many professional sports seasons.
Online gaming revenue is earned in a few ways that are slightly different, but very similar overall. In order to enter a DFS contest, a customer must pay an entry fee. DFS revenue is generated from these entry fees collected, net of prize payouts and customer incentives awarded to users. In order to place a sports bet (sports gambling), a customer places a wager with a DK Sportsbook. The DK Sportsbook sets odds for each wager that builds in a theoretical margin allowing DK to profit. Sports gambling revenue is generated from wagers collected from customers, net of payouts and incentives awarded to winning customers. The last form of online gaming revenue is earned in similar fashion to a land-based casino, offering online versions of casino games such as blackjack, roulette, and slot machines.
Gaming Software (18% of Total Revenue for 9 months ended 9/30/20):
While the Online Gaming revenue stream mentioned above is a Business to Consumer (B2C) model, the Gaming Software revenue stream is a Business to Business (B2B) model. The Gaming Software side of the business was born out of the acquisition of SBTech, a company from the Isle of Man (near the UK) founded in 2007 that has 12+ years of experience providing online sports betting platforms to clients all over the world. The acquisition occurred as part of the SPAC driven IPO in April of 2020 that combined “the old DK company” with SBTech so that they now are “the new DK company” listed as DKNG on the NASDAQ. SBTech is a far more important part of the story than just being 18% of today’s revenue. The reason for this is because DK will eventually (planned mid-late 2021) be migrating all of their DFS and gambling offerings onto SBTech’s online platforms. Currently, for DFS, DK uses their own proprietary platform but that will move to SBTech with the migration. Currently, for online gambling, DK uses Kambi, the same online gambling platform that services Penn Gaming (PENN), a DK rival. But that’s enough about the software migration for now, back to the Gaming Software revenue.
The Gaming Software revenue stream for DK is essentially a continuation of SBTechs’ B2B business model. DK contracts with business customers to provide sports and casino betting software solutions. DK typically enters two different type of arrangements with B2B customers when selling the gaming software:

1. Direct Customer Contract Revenue: In this type of transaction, the software is sold directly to a business (casino for example) that wants to use the software for their own gambling operations. This revenue is generally calculated as a percentage of the wagering revenue generated by the business customer using DK’s software and is recognized in the periods in which those wagering and related activities conclude.
2. Reseller Arrangement Revenue: In this type of transaction, DK provides distributors with the right to resell DK’s software-as-a-service offering to their clients, using their own infrastructure. In reseller arrangements, revenue is generally calculated via a fixed monthly fee and an additional monthly fee which varies based on the number of gaming operators to whom each reseller sub-licenses DK’s software.

As mentioned above, SBTech was an international company based in the Isle of Man before being acquired by DK. Thus, the majority of their business in their first 12 years of operating independently has always been international and outside of the United States. This has helped DK, which has historically been US focused, expand it’s international reach.
A perfect example of expanding this international reach occurred recently during October (technically Q4) in which DK’s B2B technology (powered by SBTech) helped enable the launch of “PalaceBet”, a new mobile and online sportsbook offering from Peermont, a South Africa based resort and casino company. The deal was headed by DK’s new Chief International Officer, Shay Berka, who previously spent 10 years working for SBTech as CFO and General Manager. Mr. Berka took on the role of DK’s Chief International Officer upon the merger in April earlier this year. I think this deal shows that DK has integrated SBTech and it’s business very well into the larger business as a whole. They are not wasting any time using their newly acquired resources to expand their reach and bring in new sources of revenue.
This is the end of my first article about DK. My goal is to drop Part 2 later this week. The focus of Part 2 will be an in depth answer of the question – “Can we 10x from here?”
Disclosure: I am/we are long DKNG. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

TL:DR

• This is Part 1 of my two part deep dive on DraftKings (Ticker: DKNG, I will refer to the company as “DK”)
• This first part introduces you to (1) me, (2) the company, (3) my thesis on the company, and (4) digs into how they make money.
• The second part (to be released later this week) will go in depth to explore the question “Can we 10x from here?”
• DK is an exciting, disruptive company working to change how we experience watching sports and make it better.
• I am not a financial advisor and this is not investment advice. These are just my opinions to help facilitate learning and discussion.

Hello, welcome to my first deep dive write up.
My name’s Mark and I’m an accountant with a passion for investing. About two years ago, I used to work as an auditor at a public accounting firm and have been behind the scenes at many different publicly traded and privately held companies in the U.S. My goal is to bring my unique perspective from that past experience, my current experience working in a new role at a large corporation, and my understanding of accounting to help break down some of the most exciting growth stocks on the market today.
I’m a long-term investor. I am focused on finding great companies and holding them for a long time. I’m willing to endure volatility, crazy price drops, and everything that comes with this approach as long as the facts that led me to originally invest and believe in that company have not changed. If you want to learn more about this approach. I recommend reading the book “100 Baggers” by Chris Mayer.
Introduction
I think it’s fitting that my first stock pick has to do with sports. Sports has been a part of my life since I could walk at the age of 2. First with baseball and soccer, and then later in my childhood with golf. I’ve always played American football and basketball for fun as well and have always been an avid fan of all the major sports in the US.
I started playing fantasy sports (mostly just fantasy football) about 6 years ago and have always enjoyed it. Traditionally, with fantasy football you draft a team at the beginning of the year and those are your players for the rest of the season. If you have a bad draft, oh well. You can try to improve your team with trades and free agent additions but it is tough. Leagues usually consist of 10-14 teams (each managed by an individual) and there’s obviously only one winner at the end of the season (about 4 months after the draft). This can lead to the managers of the lower performing teams losing interest as the season wanes on. I believe DraftKings’ (DK) founders saw this issue and saw an opportunity. Enter, daily fantasy sports. Now, with the DK platform you can draft a new team every week. Or if you want, every day. This allows fans of fantasy sports to engage at whichever point of the season they want and at varying financial stakes.
The Thesis Statement
For every stock pick I make, I want to provide a quick thesis statement that can serve as a reminder for why I’m buying and holding that stock for the long term. I’ll always aim to make it just a few sentences long so it can easily be remembered and internalized. This helps during times when the price may sporadically drop and you need to remember why you’re holding this position.
The thesis statement I have come up with for DK is as follows:
“DraftKings: The leader in allowing fans to engage financially with their favorite sports, teams, and players. Having money at stake makes the game a lot more interesting to watch. The era of daily fantasy sports games, online sports betting, and online betting (outside of sports), is just getting started and DK is as well positioned (or better positioned) than anyone to capitalize off of this trend.”
Notice how I said “allowing fans to engage financially” as the first sentence and not necessarily “allowing fans to gamble”. There’s a reason for that. According to US Federal Law, Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) contests have specifically been exempted from the prohibitions of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA). DK has always been, and I believe will continue to be DFS contests 1st, sports betting 2nd, and other forms of gambling/entertainment 3rd. It is noteworthy that states at an individual level can still deem DFS contests illegal if they so wish, but as of this writing (11/26/20), 43 of the 50 US States allow DFS contests and DK, accordingly, is offering DFS contests in all 43 of those US States.
I’ll try to clarify the difference between DFS contests and sports betting real quick:
DFS Contest – Pay a pre-set entry fee to enter a contest. All entry fees go towards “The Pot”. “Draft” 9 players to be on your “Team” for 1 week. Enter your “Roster” into a contest with other players (could range from 1 other person to 1,000s of people, the DK user can choose). Whichever “Roster” amasses the most points for that week out of all contestants wins. The winner will get the highest payout, and depending on the nature of the contest, other top finishers will receive smaller payouts as well.
Sports Gambling – Team A is considered a 10 point favorite to defeat Team B. This means that Team A is expected, by the professional gambling line setters, to outscore Team B by 10 points. This is known as a point spread. You can bet on the underdog or the favorite. If you bet on the favorite, they have to win by more than 10 points for you to win the bet. If you bet on the underdog, you will win the bet as long as the underdog keeps the game within less than a 10 point defeat.
These are just a couple simple examples to help you see the difference. Sports Gambling (the 2nd priority of DK) is a very lucrative market just as the DFS contests are. However, in the US, Federal Laws and regulations are a lot stricter on Sports Gambling than they are on DFS. As of this writing (11/27/20), 22 states (including the District of Columbia) out of 51 possible allow sports gambling.
DK is still in the infancy stages of getting their sports gambling business going. In the 22 states where they could potentially operate, they currently have a sports gambling offering in 11 of those states. The sports gambling business model for DK can be broken into two main offerings – mobile sports betting, and retail sports betting. Mobile sports betting means you can place a sports bet online from the comfort of your own home, while retail sports betting means you must go to a casino and place a bet with the sportsbook in person. I personally believe mobile sports betting is the real potential cash cow for DK out of the two types of sports betting offerings due to the convenience and ease of access. DK is currently working on and encouraging customers to lobby their state lawmakers to legalize sports gambling in more states.
How DK makes money
At the very least, before you invest in a company, you better understand how they make money. In Chris Mayers’ excellent book, 100 Baggers, that I mentioned above, he continually references top line revenue growth as one of the main common indicators of a possible 100 Bagger. This isn’t to tell you that any stock I pick will be a 100 Bagger just because it has great top line revenue growth, but if I am looking at a growth stock to hold for the long term, revenue growth is one of the first things I look at.
For DK, their means of making money is quite simple. I already went into detail above about DFS Contests and Sports Gambling. In DK’s latest 10-Q filing with the SEC (filed 11/13/20), revenue is broken out into two main streams: Online Gaming and Gaming Software.
Online Gaming (82% of Total Revenue for 9 months ended 9/30/20):
Online gaming is the true core business of DK and includes the aforementioned DFS Contests, Sports Gambling and additional gambling (non-sports) opportunities. DK refers to their additional gambling (non-sports) as “iGaming” or “online casino”.
For the 9 months ended 9/30/20, Online Gaming revenue totaled $239M, up 30% YoY from $184M in the same prior year period. Keep in mind, that this is an increase that happened during a COVID-19 global pandemic that delayed and shortened many professional sports seasons.
Online gaming revenue is earned in a few ways that are slightly different, but very similar overall. In order to enter a DFS contest, a customer must pay an entry fee. DFS revenue is generated from these entry fees collected, net of prize payouts and customer incentives awarded to users. In order to place a sports bet (sports gambling), a customer places a wager with a DK Sportsbook. The DK Sportsbook sets odds for each wager that builds in a theoretical margin allowing DK to profit. Sports gambling revenue is generated from wagers collected from customers, net of payouts and incentives awarded to winning customers. The last form of online gaming revenue is earned in similar fashion to a land-based casino, offering online versions of casino games such as blackjack, roulette, and slot machines.
Gaming Software (18% of Total Revenue for 9 months ended 9/30/20):
While the Online Gaming revenue stream mentioned above is a Business to Consumer (B2C) model, the Gaming Software revenue stream is a Business to Business (B2B) model. The Gaming Software side of the business was born out of the acquisition of SBTech, a company from the Isle of Man (near the UK) founded in 2007 that has 12+ years of experience providing online sports betting platforms to clients all over the world. The acquisition occurred as part of the SPAC driven IPO in April of 2020 that combined “the old DK company” with SBTech so that they now are “the new DK company” listed as DKNG on the NASDAQ. SBTech is a far more important part of the story than just being 18% of today’s revenue. The reason for this is because DK will eventually (planned mid-late 2021) be migrating all of their DFS and gambling offerings onto SBTech’s online platforms. Currently, for DFS, DK uses their own proprietary platform but that will move to SBTech with the migration. Currently, for online gambling, DK uses Kambi, the same online gambling platform that services Penn Gaming (PENN), a DK rival. But that’s enough about the software migration for now, back to the Gaming Software revenue.
The Gaming Software revenue stream for DK is essentially a continuation of SBTechs’ B2B business model. DK contracts with business customers to provide sports and casino betting software solutions. DK typically enters two different type of arrangements with B2B customers when selling the gaming software:
​

1. Direct Customer Contract Revenue: In this type of transaction, the software is sold directly to a business (casino for example) that wants to use the software for their own gambling operations. This revenue is generally calculated as a percentage of the wagering revenue generated by the business customer using DK’s software and is recognized in the periods in which those wagering and related activities conclude.
2. Reseller Arrangement Revenue: In this type of transaction, DK provides distributors with the right to resell DK’s software-as-a-service offering to their clients, using their own infrastructure. In reseller arrangements, revenue is generally calculated via a fixed monthly fee and an additional monthly fee which varies based on the number of gaming operators to whom each reseller sub-licenses DK’s software.

As mentioned above, SBTech was an international company based in the Isle of Man before being acquired by DK. Thus, the majority of their business in their first 12 years of operating independently has always been international and outside of the United States. This has helped DK, which has historically been US focused, expand it’s international reach.
A perfect example of expanding this international reach occurred recently during October (technically Q4) in which DK’s B2B technology (powered by SBTech) helped enable the launch of “PalaceBet”, a new mobile and online sportsbook offering from Peermont, a South Africa based resort and casino company. The deal was headed by DK’s new Chief International Officer, Shay Berka, who previously spent 10 years working for SBTech as CFO and General Manager. Mr. Berka took on the role of DK’s Chief International Officer upon the merger in April earlier this year. I think this deal shows that DK has integrated SBTech and it’s business very well into the larger business as a whole. They are not wasting any time using their newly acquired resources to expand their reach and bring in new sources of revenue.
This is the end of my first article about DK. My goal is to drop Part 2 later this week. The focus of Part 2 will be an in depth answer of the question – “Can we 10x from here?”
Disclosure: I am/we are long DKNG. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Hey guys, I wrote a little starters guide about testing your betting system I thought may be helpful
I don't want to break any rules so, this is the post - https://valuebettingblog.com/testing-your-betting-system/ But I've pasted it all below so you don't have to leave reddit.
Hopefully its somewhat helpful!
If you don’t know how to test your betting system, you’re flying blind. I’ll breakdown why we test, the forms of testing and the methods you can use.
You could call every stage of betting a form of testing:
While you are gathering information to create the grounding of your system; you’re testing.
Once you have your method and are trialling and backtesting; you’re obviously testing.
Then, when you are using your system, successfully or unsuccessfully, you are also testing with every subsequent bet.
Knowing how to analyse your system is an absolute non-negotiable in creating and maintaining profitable betting systems.

Why We Test (Rigorously)

This seems kind of obvious. If you don’t test something, you don’t know if it works.
But, that is just the beginning. We test comprehensively so that we don’t confuse variance with value.
To best explain how variance can affect our perception, I did a simple calculation:
Bets: 100Odds: 2.00Stake: 1% (proportional staking)Yield: -4%
This system, that is clearly unprofitable long-term, will make a profit 30.82% of the time...
If you were in that 30.82% and you were happy with this measly 100 bet trial, you may as well have not tested at all.
You’d be flying straight into the arms of bankroll bankruptcy as that -4% yield chipped away at your betting account and sanity.
We must test and we must test properly.
Use this spreadsheet to run the same simulation with whatever numbers you want - Profit-Probability

Testing Methods

All three of the listed methods should be used in one way or another.
Notice the absence of popular methods: 'intuition' and 'gut feel'...

Real Test (With A Small Bankroll)

The most simple way to test - trialling your own system with a smaller bankroll. A real test.
I polled some long-term profitable sports bettors for a recent article. There were some surprising answers, but it was no surprise that many of them recommended trialling with a small bankroll before committing any significant money. Sometimes for years.
This doesn’t mean winning 15/20 of the intuitive head to head bets that you placed because you had a good feeling about them. This means using your well-defined system over a period of months, sometimes years, and diligently logging 1000+ bets to validate or invalidate your betting system.
This method is great, it’s simple, and it works. But, it takes a long time. Spending years only to find your system is unprofitable would be wholly demoralising.
Betting volume is key here, if you are able to find ten value bets a day that fit the criteria of your system, you can get valuable, consequential data of 1000 bets logged in just over three months. But if not, it can be a slog.
This is where the backtest method is valuable.

Backtest

Luckily, every sports result and thousands of in-depth stats are available for free to every single one of you. It’s a beautiful ever-updated resource called the Internet.
The secret to testing and improving a system is simply to spend time going through past results and trying to find trends in the statistics.
Here is an example (don't use it):
Start with something to test - Over the past 500 games, Team A wins what % of games when the weather is below 15 Celsius?
First, you'll log the last 500 relevant games, using fbref.com for Football, bbref.com for Basketball, or any other database of results. Then, put all the relevant weather conditions into the same spreadsheet, giving you a correlation; in this case, it'll be a %.
55% of the time Team A wins in sub-15-celsius conditions. They must just love that cold weather and have superior weatherproof gloves than the rest of the competition...
With a 55% probability of occurring all we need to breakeven is odds of $1.82. If we can find odds of $2.00 we have clearly found odds above the required.
There are plenty above 2.00? Cool, now we’re rich.
Let’s be clear, this is a terrible inconsequential metric to backtest - but, the theory is that simple.
Oftentimes you will need to be testing multiple metrics against each other for 1000+ bets and failing many times before you find a system that succeeds with enough bet volume to be worth your time.
The benefit of backtesting is that you can spend the time doing it, right now. If you are trialling a system in real-time, you are waiting to log results week by week and season by season. Backtesting allows you to commit and spend as much time as you can right now finding a successful system.

Closing Line Testing

Across the board, there is no one smarter than the market. No One. More specifically, the market when it closes.
Over the long-term, the closing line; the odds at which the market closes, is analogous to the true probability of an event (minus the bookmaker margin). This is called the CLV (Closing Line Value) and it gives us something to compare ourselves to.
This general accuracy of the closing line is a product of many things:
First, the bookmaker publishes odds which they believe to reflect the true probability of an event, using the huge amount of resources at their disposal.
Next, bettors from all over the world bet on those odds. Recreational punters and serious punters.
Recreational punters bet on either side of the event, usually without much method. This barely affects the odds unless the bookmaker has made an obvious error.
Then, we have serious bettors, using their own analysis to find fault and value in the bookmaker odds - bookmakers react to the incoming bets, using these actions of highly regarded profitable bettors to help adjust the odds to the mutually calculated 'true odds' of the event.
It is essentially a battle between bookmakers and serious bettors, fighting it out to work out what the true probability of an event is. With a sea of recreational punters inconsequentially dancing around them and throwing cash at the bookmaker. A dizzying image.
That range between where the odds began and where they closed is where the value is.
To be clear, it’s not impossible to win money purely betting the closing odds. But, it is extremely hard. You are not only contending with the bookmaker’s initial analysis, but you are also contending with other serious sports bettors, the added information gathered by the bookmaker since the first odds were published, and the bookmaker margin.
So, the key to measuring yourself and your ability against the closing line is simple:

1. Record the odds at which you placed the bet
2. Record the closing line odds
3. Calculate the bookmaker margin
4. Calculate your implied yield
5. Repeat 100’s of time...

For example, your system identified a market in which you believed the odds should have been 1.90-2.00, but you found odds of 2.05, a clear value bet based on your system.
The market then closed at 1.96, after removing the bookmaker margin of 2% the true implied odds would be 2.00.
Then to calculate the true yield you achieved, simply do: 2.05/2.00 = 2.5%
You have beaten the true closing line by 2.5%
Joseph Buchdahl wrote a great piece on Closing Line Value, showing the efficacy of testing against closing lines - Using the closing line to test your skill in betting.
Closing Line Value, as a theory, isn't bulletproof. But, it's strong and it may be the most reliable measure we have to test our systems.

Other Things To Test

Even a profitable system can be a failing system, let me explain how:

Time/Yield Ratio

Your time has a $ value. This is where the trialling method comes in.
If you spend two hours a day analysing markets and placing bets, and your average daily profit is $30, you are judging one hour of your time to be worth $15 - is that what your time is worth?
You have to know the cost in time and effort that is required by your betting system. Trial the system, see how long it takes you to place bets, compare odds, calculate stakes, and then evaluate the true cost of doing business.

Volume

So often neglected when people describe their betting systems. Volume > Yield.
Obviously, it's more nuanced than that. But, I'll take a system with a 2-3% yield with multiple bets per day over a system with a 10% yield but that only provides one bet per week. Every time.
The lower the volume, the longer it takes to test, and the longer it takes to compound your bankroll. If it's taking you three years to log 500 bets, your edge could be lost before you even get to profit from it.

Life/Bet Balance

You've backtested your system, it works, it's got the volume, the yield, and takes very little ongoing maintenance. You're all set, right?
Not quite. I bet on ITF tennis, many of those markets are released while late at night over here in Melbourne. Luckily, the odds often hold and I'm also a bit of a night owl. It's not a problem for me.
But, if you have to stay up to use your system, you have to evaluate whether it's worth it. If you work 9-5 and have to keep your phone ready during the day, that could threaten your job. You might not want to be checking your phone while spending time with your family in the afternoons. All things that need to be considered.
We are slaves to bookmakers and when they make odds available. Sometimes, your system just won't fit your life (so give it to me).

Bookmaker Availability

We all know this one, bookies don't like your winning system. They also have the power to cripple it.
Most bookmakers will limit or ban you for winning regularly and consistently in large volumes. Your backtests don't account for that, your small bankroll trials don't account for that.
First, assess how many bookmakers your system will work with. Then, open accounts with as many bookmakers as possible. The key to not being limited is spreading your bets across multiple bookies. Here is an article detailing some other ways to sidestep bookmaker limits.
Ask other bettors what their experiences are. You won't have to go far to find out that Pinnacle doesn't limit and Paddy Power does, quickly. Here is a list of some 'no limit bookmakers'.
Do your research, testing a system for a year and then being limited within a week would be extremely frustrating.

Conclusion

Are you convinced? Testing diligently is imperative to building a profitable method.
All a bit too much? There always is the option to outsource your betting analysis to a tipster or service. For that, I'll direct you to this article - Find The Best Tipsters (A Sceptics Guide)
A rigid plan and framework for building your betting system would be:

1. Backtest your initial hypothesis, over a month, year, and multi-year period. Analyse closing lines for the backtested data.
2. Trial your system with a small bankroll and reach 1000 bets. Analyse all bets against the closing line.
3. Compare your backtest with your trial. Did your backtest have any oversights?
4. Analyse the human aspects of your system. Were the bets too time-consuming to place? Did it cut into your family time?
5. Analyse the logistics. How available were bookmakers, have you been told they are quick to limit? Is there enough volume?
6. Decide if it's worth it.
7. Profit

Time-consuming? Yeah. Important? YES.
Good luck with your betting systems.
Coming Soon - 'Testing Your Betting System: Advanced Guide'. In this guide, we will delve into P-Value, Forward Testing, and Blind Testing. Subscribe to be notified.
Happy (Value) Betting

Part 2:
Aleksei entered his cramped office and sat at his desk, lighting a cigarette. Tatyana followed in closely afterward, pausing to survey the room.
​
There was one bookshelf against the wall to the left which was sloppily filled with textbooks, encyclopedias, and loose papers. Some had even fallen from the bookshelf and lay on the floor. The only sources of light in the room were a single bare lightbulb hanging from the ceiling, and a desk lamp. Aleksei’s desk was directly in front of her with a chair on either side. To the right was a large chalkboard that had writings and images all over it. Nothing specific, but what you’d expect to see in a scientist’s office.
​
Though, Aleksei was no scientist. He was a former KGB officer who was transferred suddenly to lead the boots on the ground team. Partly because of his piloting experience and his reputation in Moscow. Partly because of his unwavering loyalty to the Soviet Union.
​
“What do you think?” Aleksei asked as he flipped through some dossiers while taking a drag from his cigarette.
​
“About what Comrade Aksynov?” Tatyana asked, unsure why he was addressing her in English. Perhaps as a test of her fluency?
​
“About the team…”
​
“Well,” she said, taking a seat, “they aren’t Russian that’s for sure. Surely Moscow could have sent in -” She was abruptly interrupted
​
“This is how it has to be done. We couldn’t do this mission without the resources from the West. And in return, we are allowing them to participate.” He took another drag.
​
“In that case.” She looked down at the clipboard. She had been taking meticulous notes throughout the briefing. “Georgina Metz. Age 32. Studied Medicine at Harvard University. Smart, confident, calculating. She’s actually really great. Have you read her research paper on - ” Aleksei waved at her to continue.
​
She flipped to the next page. “Francois Leblanc. Age 48. Mechanical Engineer. University of Cambridge. Joined the French National Centre for Space Studies 18 years ago. Quite, intuitive, and ready to be led. He loves his country, and will do anything asked of him.”
​
She flipped to the last page. “Mark Kirby. Age 33. Mining and Mineral Engineer and US Army Officer. Crass, brutish, and untrusting of the Soviet Union. But damn good at what he does.” Tatyana flipped back to the first page and handed her clipboard over to Aleksei.
​
He thanked her and examined the notes, going back between them and the official dossiers for a few minutes before glancing up at her.
​
He then laid the clipboard to the side, checked his watch, and paused for a moment before asking, “Comrade Markov, why are you here?”
​
She was taken aback by the question. Was he not impressed with her qualifications? Did he think she was too young...too inexperienced at only 26?
​
“A-as you know. I was the one who translated the voices in the audio. Linguists and anthropologists all over the Union couldn’t, but I did. What if you encounter more writing or, or, or, more voices? You need me. Not here, but there. I want to be there. The others have skills, sure, but they don’t understand as I do. I mean, we haven’t even told them what..." She stopped herself, taking a deep breath. "I want to do this. For all Mankind.”
​
She fell silent. Looking for Aleksei to react. He shook his head slightly. “No Comrade, why are you here.” He gestured to the chair she was sitting in. “It is a quarter till 6pm. You were supposed to get the team to Warehouse 3C.”
​
She put her hand to her mouth. “Вот, дерьмо!”
​
Aleksei put out his cigarette with 3 quick jabs into his ashtray before picking up the phone on his desk and dialing. Tatyana stood and quickly left the room.
​
His thoughts lingered on what Tatyana had said. “For all mankind,” he said to himself.
​
The line connected and he spoke into the phone, “Okay, Comrades. It’s time to get you acquainted with your new toys. Meet me in Warehouse 3C.”
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Francois, Georgina, and Kirby traveled down the hallway. They were careful to follow the signs which directed them to Warehouse 3C as this facility was huge and they did not want to spend the next hour getting lost and backtracking.
​
“Wish they at least sent someone to escort us….” Francois thought out loud as he walked through hallway after hallway with the others.
​
While walking, he began reflecting on the whirlwind of events that had transpired. It was only 16 hours ago that he was sleeping soundly with his wife before being awoken suddenly by a knock on the door of his 2 bedroom apartment.
​
The knock had startled his infant daughter, Marie, awake. When she began to cry his wife, Elizabeth, sat up to rock her crib. Frustrated by the situation Francois crossed his apartment and answered the door. On the other side were two men in military uniforms.
​
One of the men immediately handed him a piece of paper while the other spoke. “Francois Leblanc?”
​
“Uh...yes?” Francois said, looking down at the paper in his hands.
​
“You are to come with us. You have been selected to participate in a top-secret mission in collaboration with other countries on behalf of France and the National Centre for Space Studies. Pack a single bag of essentials and meet us outside.” Then, men both turned and quickly walked away.
​
Francois was dumbfounded. He looked down at the paper again. It was an official order from the President himself co-signed by the head of the NCSS. There were no additional details.
​
Within 5 minutes Francois was packed and saying goodbye to his wife and daughter who were now both crying. “How can they just make you leave your family? Your newborn daughter? How can they just take you away in the middle of the night!” Elizabeth yelled through tears.
​
“They wouldn’t be here if it weren’t tremendously important. They probably just need some emergency consulting regarding some sort of new experimental tech they’re working on with NASA or something. Do not worry, my love. I will be back soon. Everything is okay. Je vous aime.” With that, he kissed his wife, said goodbye to his still crying daughter, and exited the apartment.
​
He was driven directly to a small airfield and then ushered aboard a military transport plane along with other similarly dazed personnel and multiple crates of equipment. This must have been more serious than he initially thought. What had he been asked to help with? Was he lying to his wife and himself when he said there was nothing to worry about?
​
Francois leaned back in his chair and buckled in, shaking the thoughts out of his head. There is no point dwelling on that now. Francois was ready to serve his country however he could, but he would be lying to himself if he didn’t acknowledge the knot that began to form in his stomach.
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“Hellooo...Earth to Francois?” Georgiana said melodically as she gave him a tap on the shoulder.
​
“Oh, uh, sorry. What was that?” Francois said, seemingly coming back to the here and now.
​
“Do you have anyone back home?”
​
“Yes. Yes, a wife and daughter.”
​
“I bet they’re very proud of you.” She said, thinking how nice it must be to have someone feel that way about you. She looked over to ask Francois another question, but he seemed to have retreated back into his own thoughts so she decided to leave him be.
​
After a few minutes, they turned a corner and arrived in yet another long hallway with brick walls and a dark concrete floor. She knew they were in the right place when she saw Tatyana waving them over to one of the doors about a third of the way down the hallway from where they stood.
​
“Привет, сюда!” Tatyana yelled, continuing to wave them over. The group approached her and she led them into the room.
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When Georgina entered the room she was immediately impressed by its size. She expected a stuffy old warehouse with crates and shelves, various mechanical equipment, tools, etc. Yet, what she entered was a large football stadium-sized room with a few tables and crates sitting just by the door they entered in. In the center was a Lunar Lander and next to it was a Moon rover.
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Incredible what the Soviets had done here. They secretly constructed an entire facility in and under the Siberian wilderness and had done so in apparently record time. “Do the Americans have anything like this?” She thought to herself.
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The group stopped at the tables, Tatyana walked to the other side of the tables joining a tall, lanky looking scientist. “Everyone, this is Dr. Maxwell. He led the development team for everything you’ll see here today.”
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Dr. Maxwell reached out and shook their hands. “It is nice to meet you. Let’s get to it.”
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He opened a locker behind him and removed three pistols. To Georgina, they looked like something out of a science fiction novel.
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“The Soviet Union began experimenting with lasers in the fifties and sixties. Its first laser weapons, emerging in the seventies, were fixed ground-based systems. Terra-3 and Omega. Terra-3 encompassed two different devices, installed in Kazakhstan initially conceived in the 1960s to swat down ballistic missiles in the terminal descending phase.
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The concurrently developed Omega lasers were intended to hit aircraft and missiles in the atmosphere. Omega-1 and -2 proved more successful at striking distant targets, but the system still lacked sufficient hitting power and power generation. Designing a laser that could maintain a power-efficient beam over long distances is difficult—so perhaps, I thought, the solution was to get up close.
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In 1984, my team developed a laser pistol, a precursor to what you are seeing here today. It was intended for use by Cosmonauts to damage the optics of Western satellites or blind hostile astronauts, without causing hull damage to a spacecraft. Each pull of the trigger electrically discharges a pyrotechnic flashbulb cartridge stored in an eight-round box magazine.
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However, the laser pistols inflicted very light damage—between one and ten joules of energy, equivalent to an air gun—and had an effective range of only twenty meters. The design did not advance beyond the prototype stage. Or so we reported.
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Here, at this facility, we continued our work and have created what you see before you. A true laser pistol, capable of viable use in combat”
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Yet again, as with the footage from the Moon, the group was left speechless.
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“As you can see, we do great work here,” Tatyana said proudly, standing a little taller.
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“Hell. Yes. This is awesome. I can’t wait to tell the crew back in the States about this.” Kirby grabbed one of the pistols and began aiming with it, pointing it towards a stack of crates behind the tables.
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Georgina inspected one as well. “This is truly remarkable, Doctor. Why are they so large though? Won’t these be difficult to carry and handle?”
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“We constructed this with your EVA suits and the Moon’s lesser gravity in mind. The pistols will rest snuggly in your gloved hands and the weight will not be an issue. The size is because we do not yet have the technology to make it any more compact. But, an additional feature of this device is that since these are not projectile-based weapons, there is no recoil to worry about. Truly the best defense a Cosmonaut could ask for. Well, aside from the suit.” Dr. Maxwell said.
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Georgina stepped back. “Wait...are you all expecting we will need to use these?” She asked Tatyana.
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“Better to have it and not need it, then need it and not have it,” Aleksei said as he entered the warehouse. “After all, we wouldn’t want to equip our heroes with anything but the best. That is true Soviet hospitality.”
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“Regardless, these pistols have uses beyond that of a traditional pistol. They can work to cut or heat objects, and can even create small holes through rock and minerals with enough shots.” Dr. Maxwell said, nodding towards Aleksei as he approached.
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“Have we given them a rundown of their transportation?” Aleksei asked.
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“We were just about to, Comrade Aksynov.”
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The group walked together to the center of the room where the two vehicles were located. One was a Lunar Lander and the other a rover, neither unlike that of the ones the Americans used when landing on the Moon. The only immediately identifiable difference was a large metal box affixed to the back of the rover and attached to that a long barrel ran from the back of the vehicle, down the middle, pointing out the front. It looked out of place, even to Georgina.
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“What is that for, Doctor?” She inquired.
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“That, Frau Metz, is for Mr. Kirby. A drill capable of cutting through the toughest material we know of. This is how you will regain access to the artifact’s chamber”
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“Enough about that,” Aleksei interjected. “We will run through various scenarios and training for both of these. We need each of you to be able to confidently operate and troubleshoot them in case something goes wrong.
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“And what about the shuttle itself?” Asked Francois.
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Aleksei shook his head. “I am the pilot, it would take too long to train you all on how to operate it. Besides...this gives us some assurances.”
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“What assurances?” Asked Kirby
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“He means that it ensures his safety. That we protect his life by any means necessary. Because, without him, none of us are going home.” Georgina answered, crossing her arms and looking to Aleksei. She hadn’t decided if she trusted him yet, but she certainly respected him. “What have I got myself into…” she thought.
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Aleksei began taking off his coat. Handing it to Dr. Maxwell. “Alright, it’s time to suit up and begin your training. This mission is on a tight schedule and I will not throw things off track with idle chit-chat. This is too important.”
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“Important for who, Aleksei. You, your scientists, Moscow?”
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Aleksei looked into Georgina’s eyes. Eyes, filled with determination. “This mission is bigger than any of us. It is vitally important that we accomplish what we are setting out to do. Find our lost team and regain access to the artifact.”
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“Not for me, not for us. For all Mankind.”
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- End of Part 2
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Read Part 1: [Part 1] The Americans Didn't Make It to the Moon First. Their Astronauts Just Lived to Tell the Tale. : creepypasta (reddit.com)

Betting arbitrage strategies and tips

Avoid arbs over 10% profit.

Often arbitrage opportunities over 10% profit are either an apparent mistake by the sportsbook or a match far out in the future. In both cases placing bets on the opportunity may tip sportsbooks off that you may be arbing.

Don’t use unsafe links from betting arbitrage websites.

When coming from a betting arbitrage site, make sure not to click any unsafe links to a sportsbook. If a sportsbook notices you coming from an arbitrage website, it is pretty obvious what you’re trying to do. If you use links from an arbitrage website to a sportsbook, make sure they are safe non-referring links.

Avoid betting on weird markets.

It’s best to stick to the most popular sports. In the U.S., this would be football, baseball, basketball, and hockey. Placing bets on obscure events like Korean ping pong is going to seem strange to the sportsbooks.

Open both sportsbook websites side by side to reduce the time placing bets.

As arbing opportunities don’t always last an extended amount of time, it is important to place your bets as quickly and as accurately as possible. Pulling up two tabs to each sportsbook and quickly double-checking the match and the odds will ensure you don’t make any mistakes that will cost you.

Round your arbitrage bets depending on your bet size.

When stakes are calculated for arbitrage bets, technically to obtain the full profit possible, the bets would be made to the nearest penny. Ordinary bettors are not placing bets down to the penny. Depending on the size of your bankroll, you will want to hedge your bets to the nearest $1, $5, $10, $50, etc.

Start with small stakes.

Until you figure out the process that works best for you, it is best to start with small stakes. This way, while you are figuring out the best way for you to place bets or the strategy you are pursuing, you can do so without making mistakes.

Double-check the odds are the same.

Odds can change very fast. In some cases, faster than your arbitrage software can pick it up. Before placing your arbitrage bets, make sure that the odds from your research or arbitrage service match up with those on the sportsbooks’ websites.

Double-check that you are betting on the correct event.

Think about matches that are within the same division. For example, in the NFL, each team in the same division will play each other twice. Make sure the date, game, and odds match up on the sportsbooks and the arbitrage service. This way you can be sure that you are placing the bets on the correct match and not one featuring the same teams in the future.

Place “mug bets” occasionally.

A “mug bet” is basically a dummy bet to break up arbitrage bets. By placing these mug bets, it may appear that you are simply an average bettor that gets lucky sometimes. When placing these mug bets, only use 1-2% of your bankroll. Please don’t get carried away with mug bets, or they may eat away at your bankroll.

Limit deposits and withdrawals on sportsbook websites.

Arbitrage bettors need to move around their funds often to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities as they arise. To minimize the need to withdraw and deposit funds, stick to a lower number of bookmakers.

Place an occasional parlay.

According to a UNLV Center for Gaming Research study from 1992 to 2019, Nevada sportsbooks won $0.30 for every $1 placed on parlays compared to just $0.05 for $1 spent on regular bets.
Many beginner bettors bet with their hearts and not their heads when it comes to placing parlay bets. They hear stories like “Man turns $300 to $85,000 on eight-leg parlay”. If you don’t know what a parlay is, it’s basically multiple bets wrapped into one. If one of the bets loses, then the entire parlay is lost. To win the parlay, all of the individual bets must be won within the parlay. These bets have high payouts for a reason; not many people win. By placing the occasional parlay, you can look more like one of these beginner bettors. Just don’t get carried away!

Keep track of your winnings to compare performance at different sportsbooks.

One of the best ways to stay under the radar with sportsbooks and understand your performance is to keep track of your bets. Create a spreadsheet grouping the bets by sportsbook. If one sportsbook has a much higher win rate or lifetime winnings than the others, it may be time to place some mug bets or parlays to even the score.

Spread your bets around to different sportsbooks.

Following up with the track your performance tip, it is important to spread your bets around. If you have a higher number of arbitrage bets with some sportsbooks than others, try to even this out to keep a low profile.

Check stake limits to ensure you can place your arbitrage bets.

You don’t want to place bets on one sportsbook to find out that you can’t place the other half of the arb on the other sportsbook because the stake limit is too low. Ensure you know your stake limits (max bet) with each sportsbook, so you keep your bets within what’s possible when using an arbing calculator.

Avoid long term arbs.

Long term arbs that are greater than a week are usually not the best choice. The odds for these matches are more so guesses, especially when the match is far in the future. If you keep profiting off of these odds, it seems suspicious. Stick to arbs where the match occurs in less than a week.

Avoid arbitrage betting to the max bet limit.

Seeing that there are nearly risk-free profits when it comes to arbitrage betting, it makes sense to go all-in on every bet, right? Not exactly. When you win big it puts more eyes on you. When you win big over and over again, you will get noticed, and sportsbooks will limit how much you can bet. Go for about 60-75% of the max bet limit at most if you have the funds to do so.

Try and focus on smaller sportsbooks.

The more established and higher-earning the sportsbook, the better their anti-arbitrage systems are likely to be. It’s not a bad idea to try and focus on the smaller sportsbooks when possible. Regarding arbitrage betting in the U.S., there may be a period of time when arbitrage betting goes by relatively unnoticed compared to other international markets. This is due to sports betting being new in the U.S., and these new sportsbooks do not have any complex systems in place to detect betting arbitrage.

Don’t place bets on arbitrage opportunities as soon as they appear.

Placing bets on arbitrage opportunities as soon as they appear could come off as a little suspicious. The reason being regular bettors are generally not attentive enough to place bets instantly once the odds change.

Stick to 1-3 sports.

Most regular bettors and those that watch sports in general only follow 1-3 sports. If your betting on many more than three sports at a time, it may look suspicious.

Look like a typical bettor.

Overall your strategy should make you look as normal of a bettor as possible. The more you deviate outside of what you think a typical bettor would do, the higher chance of your account being noticed. Act normally, and you can arbitrage successfully while making a profit.
If you are interested, you can learn more here.
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What I am really interested in is if you guys know of any other strategies?
Anything in the thread may help others!